Roulette TurboGenius and "Edge", let debate

Gentlemen,

Everytime I read about HOUSE-EDGE, I think like jumping up and down on spot! Pulling my head, and then dance a few breakdance steps...Arghhhhhhh!!!!
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Oops, sorry for my little emotional outburst,
Nevertheless, lets us, gentlemen,
DEBATE this issues GENTLEMANLY!
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In the next spin EC, every spin will be 50/50 albeit zero.
same for next trillion spins.
That absolutely right.
But in next 200 spins, the edge still applied, but the 50/50 never hit constantly.
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If u see them as a SET of spins, say 200spins set/group/session,
win/loss...yes...the edge still same.

THE ZERO=6 hit or around 6=3%....never chance..
BUT!!!

But the win/loss will ranging from 125win to 69 win.

Why so?
Why so?
Why so?

why not 100w/100lose, albeit zero,
in every 200spins set, group, session???


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I post in my other post=

Ok, youre {turbo}GENIUS, u ask your computer to search, how many win in 200 spins.
u may see that the most win, never exceed 130, and the worst not below 60..
BM casino result please
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and TurboGenius, reply..

That would mean charting spins that happened in the past and then expecting that to somehow have any meaning on the next spins which I would be betting on. So no, that data has no meaning. It could be 120 wins one session, 90 the next, 101 the next - the future spins will be *unknown wins / *unknown losses = house edge ---
because they haven't happened yet and this is a game based on math with a sprinkle of random mixed in.
Knowledge won't bring a person the ability to predict the future. I have studied roulette for over 3 decades now and trust me - when I sit down at the wheel - I have no idea if Red or Black or 0 or 00 is going to show up.
I can however improve my chances by knowing math, probability and understanding how random works - and again, that said - the house pays less than the odds of any betting location showing up.

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TurboGenius.
You're absolutely right when u say we cant predict FUTURE, and the EDGE, sprinkled among the future spins.

What I want to say, are

1]Even without ZERO, most systems cant win...WHY?
Because when long streaks of losses , that eventually hit,
the system will lose their BR.

2]Even we know that every spin=50/50 albeit 3% ZERO...
{that universal truth, no debate]
BUT cant u see that, as a 200spins session,

the 50% win/lose , albeit zero DOESNT APPLY here.
If the 50/50 wl apply here, all the next 200spins, will have AROUND 50black/50red, or 50% BANKER/50%PLAYER albeit TIE !!!

Then the casino doomed.
but it never happened...

Thats why casino always win,
because LONG STREAKS OF LOSSES!

So the TRILLION dollar/Kroner/Yen/Dong/Rupee/
Ringgit/Bath/ Renminbi or any currency of your liking
QUESTION=

HOW to take advantage of this LONG streaks of LOSSES???!!!
Just furged the EDGE.

 

Beat the wheel,

Since you don't understand basic probability, our arguments regarding the house edge won't make much sense to you.

There's nothing to debate. There's just the facts which have already been stated.

 

Albalaha give a reply which I think should paste here...

I think I need to reread many time to understand what he mean.
Duh! Where the simple just play and win anyway, or it never exist?

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There is an adage, "little knowledge is dangerous thing". House has an edge because of the faulty payout it offers on all the bets of roulette, keeping a slight tilt for itself. It never changes with any way you bet or choose not to bet. Even the so called "advantage play" does not snatch this "edge" from the casino. Every player tries to earn irrespective of what is set in stone, be it a drunkard gambler playing martingale or a tech savvy guy using a hidden roulette computer to track the speed of rotor vs ball.
Despite the "edge", variance affects the players most and if the game runs without variance, only a foolish player who keeps 1 chip on all 37 numbers of roulette, in all spins, can guarantee sure win for casino. House edge only increases the chance to win for a casino at micro level, in no way, it can guarantee winnings. An "advantage players" for example a bias analyst also tries to take benefit of the positive variance caused by the bias. Same goes to a craps shooter. He tries to create the variance by his specialized shooting techniques. Same goes with a dealer's signature guy or a wheel clocking genius whether he is using a hidden computer or doing it manually.
If you are not using any kind of money management( many feel it is useless and many feel the opposite), only way you can win is by variance, be it a coincidence or you induce/identify it, in any manner. If any of you are really into "advantage play" of any manner, must be knowing the fact that even with all the so called "advantage" you get to face bad sessions yourself too. That is the power of Variance the beloved child of randomness and a saviour of casinos.

 

Helo Dr Anyone,
I understand the probability,
but u should look at probability, for a wider perspective.
As I said, every spin=50%, albeit zero 3%.
That's true, But the probability for a larger, say, 200spin, u will see
something, as a group happening. will not 50/50.

No we do not want to understand edge, we want to take advantage of
losing streaks, to win.

 

An advantage player wins because they are able to win at a rate that exceeds the normal expectation by exploiting inefficiencies in the gaming device/dealing proceedures.

It has nothing to do with variance. Variance is a double edged sword. Sometimes it helps you, sometimes it hurts you. The AP's goal is to play over a long enough period that the house edge becomes a larger value than the value of variance which is typically (+ or -) three times the square root of the number of hands/spins played (simplified)

 

Dr,
Your explaination please.
[win at a rate that exceeds the normal expectation by exploiting inefficiencies in the gaming device/dealing proceedures.


value of variance which is typically (+ or -) three times the square root of the number of hands/spins played (simplified)[/QUOTE]

 

Those blaming the "house edge" for losses alone, can not win at a game at no house edge like no zero roulette. They probably need a payout of 1:37 and 1:38 to win in european and american roulette. Then they will cover each number with 1 chip and earn 1 chip every bet.
Those claiming AP should not forget that even if they have an edge of say 2% somehow, a negative variance while they actually bet (even an AP won't play 24x7x365) can rush them towards gambler's ruin. If an AP can truly earn each session he plays having an edge, he will own the casino where he sits in less than a year using Kelly criterion.
Maybe AP guys should see the legendary Pelayo's documentary video in which he narrated how he fainted one day, getting losses after losses and being extremely tired. This AP is a just like a paper rose, looking and smelling like original from a distance while when you take it in your hands you see how fake it is.
see from 4:00 to 6:00 minutes as to how frustrating it can go, on a day, even for a world known AP legend:

 

So, my request to all so-called AP practitioners and aspirants, do not disguise others as if you are godsends who can only win in a casino. With limited bankroll, any AP guy can faint like Pelayo did. Beauty of variance the child of randomness and saviour of casinos.

 

Agreed.

What is the actual "debate" supposed to be about ?

 

The Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo roulette story was ridiculous for so many reasons.

Talk about absurd sensationalism and bs by the writers.

 

Suppose to be debate=

Even with no EDGE, no zero wheel, u still cant win with your system.

System failed, because of LONG LOSING STREAKS. period.

in every 200spins u see, theres always LONG LOSING STREAK.period.

 

Beat-the-wheel,

Are you saying that YOU can win in the long run on a no zero wheel?

 

I can win in even european and american wheel in the long run and have demonstrated 10 million feat with Ophis bot.
http://betselection.cc/ophis'-mst/holy-grail-randomness-can-be-beaten-even-in-the-longest-run/
I do not want repetitive arguments over it as most are compiled in the given link and this one too:
http://betselection.cc/ophis'-mst/holy-grail-troll-arena/
Indeed, a random game can be beaten in a considerable long time only. If someone asks me to beat a 100 or 200 or 500 spins with his choice of bets, it might be tough or even impossible to be done. Ironically, I see not even a single approach or money management meant for long run play where things are lesser sharp than what is possible in short term sessions.
When I beaten the toughest bet from zumma 15k, the deadly #3 having very serious variance all over and overall a very bad hit rate, people jumped up and down too, but it was doable, it is doable. IF you can not do that, do not say, it is not doable.
http://betselection.cc/money-management/albalaha's-open-challenge-can-anyone-beat-the-worst/

 

Variance = Good luck or bad luck.
Edge = This is what the casino or the AP player relies on in order to win in the long run.

If someone says that their system relies on variance and a progression to win, then they're stating that there system relies on luck.
Luck can not be successfully exploited in the long run, since variance is a double edged sword.

 

Oh really? House edge is also creating negative variance for a player in roulette, if you care to understand. The one or two extra numbers take their share of hits too, that creates an extra layer of variance. Even without any supplemental variance against our bet, it has in built variance.
I think this is what makes us scared of the house edge.
House edge or players' advantage both explain the theoretical tilt only. In reality, while you play (since you can not play 24x7x365 unlike a casino does) you may be subject of negative variance or no positive variance at your side.
An advantage player has no certainty to win in any given session. He only has a positive expectation. Same goes with casinos. Period. If the AP doesn't have enough chips to pass through momentary fluctuations, he will also be ruined.

 

Roulette, House Edge, math, science Schmuk... I'm way behind at Blackjack but a little in front at roulette. I'm pleased to offer it here free of charge, but only if you don't larf. Meh (voodoo) system is easy. I have plenty of patience. I track around looking for a decent streak, could be black, red, odd, even, high, low... whatever. Must be a streak of 6 or 7 or so. I plop a couple of blacks on the streak, doubled up twice. And then (sometimes) leave that table. My record is seeing consec 17 blacks, when I showed up it only had 9. That was nice. It was absolute horror for the anti-streakers continually doubling up because they just KNEW the streak was about to end after 9,10,11 etc. LOL. [Please keep this system secret from the casino and from the Wizard]

 

We can not win at roulette without the variance. a -EV game we need to play bold and cross fingers. If we have +EV we do better to bet with low variance bet. Still a card counter or an AP-player (in case the +EV is not a brain spoke) will need a quite large bankroll and many thousend spins/hands to exploit it, otherwise its up to chanse for all.

 

House egde has an impact, it is not fair odds. But let us not overestimate it, if so we can not play. I was lathing when Wizzard of Odds spoke
"Ahsley put all he got at one spin, on an american wheel, If he played EU-Wheel it should cost him half of the american", and thats right in a academic way. He would have a fraction better chanse on an EU Wheel. An EU-Wheel casino with surrender or prison, did not dare to take such a bet so the american was his only option. Forget the cost due HE (spec. in dollars is funny) for that spin, it is double the money or losing all in the real World.

 

Ashley Revell was not someone who can bet big alone. It was probably a casino stunt to promote gaming for impulse. An endless publicity. There are many casinos in europe and elsewhere where euro or french roulette are used and very big bets are allowed still. Apart from house edge, gambler's fallacy, gambler's ruin, law of small numbers and variance there are many factors to make a gambler loser.

 

Albalahabllhaa you have been around loong, I have for years read you an many fora, and in fact visit some of your webpages. You try to lecture be a besserwisser, and you have even claim real holey grail, and made try offering them for insane money, (I never buy). I advice to know your opponent Before go on which we already now or are of small use. Opportunist can survive!