Roulette Van De Waerden Theorem of Mathematics (VDW)

Hi Bobby, the difference between the 2,3,4 gaps (NCAP Non Continuous AP) and the 1-2-3,3-4-5 CAP(Continuous AP)is 2.

There are 9 NCAP and 7 CAP so the difference is 2. So 9 of the 16 AP are NCAP.

Pay attention, Mr. Anyone, that is one of the anomalies I mentioned.

The question is how do we capitalize on this?

 

Nick,

Taking your suggestion at face value, you could use the 9 APs with the gaps more than 2, and ignore the others. Obviously you will lose out on those runs which require one of the 1-gap APs to complete it, but the assumption is that the other 9 will more than make up the losses.

Anyone with some programming or excel knowledge could generate all 512 sequences of length 9 and check each one. This has probably already been done since I've seen this topic on other forums for quite some time. Mathematically, there is no way to choose colors, by skipping outcomes or otherwise, which will give a positive expectation, so like Dr Sir Anyone I'm puzzled as to how you arrived at a positive edge without screwing up the math.

 

Come take my hand,
You should know me.
I've always been in your mind.
You know that I'll be kind;
I'll be guiding you.

Building your dream
Has to start now.
There's no other road to take;
You won't make a mistake.
I'll be guiding you.

You have to believe we are magic.
Nothing can stand in our way.
You have to believe we are magic.
Don't let your aim ever stray.
And if all your hopes survive,
Destiny will arrive.
I'll bring all your dreams alive
For you.

Olivia Newton John


That's how a negative expectation game becomes positive. Magic and love. And Olivia Newton John.

 

Sorry, I dont want to be picky, but I doubt whether the statistics are correct. Consider the quoted statistics, you are claiming mutual bet can only occur in spins 7-8-9. What do you think about the spin sequence red, black, black, red, black, black. In the 7th spin mutual bet is happening. Both red and black can complete an Arithmetic Progression of 147 or 357 or 567. Same goes with the stats that you have published on spins. In 3rd spin, ideally you should get 25% win ratio, unless you have zero disrupting the process there in which case it should be 22.3%.

I am not discouraging you to look further, am just pointing that the analysis might be wrong. Please help me steer in the right direction if am wrong. If we need to work on a solution here, what we need is a certain win within 9 spins without mutual bets. Taking baby steps as you suggested, the first option is obviously to remove the mutual bet. However, that is not possible because of the construct here.

Second option is to have a progression that magically makes you win. Considering every bet you make is 50:50, it is not going to be straightforward. What I can think of is a progression that is applied individually to the distances that you are talking about. I havnt tried it out yet, but might be a good idea.

 

Hi Michaela,

Yes, you are correct. We have generated an Excel sheet showing the 256 9 spin patterns that begin with B. We have attached the sheet for anyone who is interested. There are another 256 Patterns that begin with P for Player as this sheet was developed for baccarat.

Yes, you and Mr. Anyone are correct. This sheet does not give you a winning bet per se. It is just the basics for understanding the VDW theorem. There are other ways to use the VDW theorem that to make it a consistent winning bet selection.

(Sorry, I still can't upload an excel sheet. Sometimes a box appears and sometimes not)

 

Hi Toofanexpress,

Yes, you are correct in your example the Mutual Bet is occurring in the 7th spin.

The bigger issue you have uncovered or related to is that this method of picking a bet is one of the most stable you can find. It hovers around the 50% mark more so than most any other EC method.

Your idea of applying a progression is exactly what we have done. I have attached our empirical data on a VDW system with a mild progression. The results were obtain from Real Money Mode and Demo Mode from Bet Voyager Casino.

Cheers


Nick

 

NickMsi,

In the random game if the same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, then how could the probability of winning possibly change on the next spin or the next series of spins?

 

Dr. Sir Anyone,

Olivia Newton John is the key. And magic.

What, do you have something against Olivia Newton John?

 

Nick,

What I understand by a "consistent winning bet selection" is one which wins flat betting, but your solution is to apply a progression of some kind. Do you acknowledge that there is no way to achieve a profit flat betting? If yes, I'm wondering how you came to the conclusion that your edge is 6.25%, arrived at by calculating 9/16.

I suppose, if what you say is true, and that the selections result in what you call a "stable" bet which hovers around 50%, then it doesn't really matter whether it results in a flat-bet profit, as long as the stakes don't get too high in your progression. How many placed bets have you made? Be aware that a progression can easily give the impression that a system is better than it actually is. No progression can confer an advantage for a system which doesn't achieve a flat-bet profit, all it does is to increase the variance both ways (negative and positive). This is a well-known and widely ignored truth about progressions.

I note that the "stop-loss" on your spreadsheet is set to 100000. Ouch!

 

So are you using Penney's game to help with deadlock? This is why the BBB < RBB and using those NCAPs are preferred?

 

Hi Bobby,

I am not familiar with "Penney's Game" to help with the deadlock.

My systems don't play with a deadlock or what I call a Mutual Bet. When you encounter a Mutual Bet you have only a 50/50 chance of hitting it so at that point it is no better than any other random system.

The question is "How do you play without encountering a Mutual Bet"?

Hi Michaela,

No I do not acknoldge that you can't win flat betting. With Non-Random systems, like the VDW, the wins can be so few and far between that it is not practical to play, even with a bot.

So I use progressions to increase the profit/spin.

Yes, we use a unlimited or very High "Stop Loss" when testing systems. We need to know "How Bad can it get". What is the worse drawdawn we will have. We need this information to determine if the system any good and/or to determine the amount of bankroll necessary to play it.

We also use unlimited or very high Max Bet so we can determine what is the largest bet placed and does this exceed table limits.

Cheers

Nick
PS STill can't upload excel files.

 

This is a potato.

Neither the potato or the VDW will have any effect on the number of pockets that remain on the wheel from one spin to the next in the random game of roulette.

Like the VDW, the potato won't help you win at roulette either.

 

Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone,

What about cucumbers? Would cucumbers help?

 

I'll just leave this here... no claims made... as far as I'm concerned... interesting read.

 

None of the following will help you win at roulette:


Grass Roots: Doesn't work.




The potato: Doesn't work.


The VDW: Doesn't work at roulette either.


Enough said.

 

Hi Nick,

Would you only play AP's where the mutual bet can not happen?
Would you restart if a mutual bet occurs or would you only play previous AP's where a mutual bet will never occur?

I would be very interested in your excel sheet and run some trials in Baccarat.

Baelog

 

Hi Bobby,
Thanks for the information on the Penney Game. This looks like a 2 opponent game, like Tic Tac Toe or the Monty Hall problem where the order of playing is critical.

I don't believe this applies to roulette as each spin independent. However, I did a quick 6,000 spin test and the results shown in the attached picture confirms that this is not profitable.

Any other ideas always welcomed.

Hi Baelog,

Yes I only play AP's where the mutual bet cannot happen. I play where the mutual bet will never occur.

Sorry I am unable to upload any excel sheets but baccarat is a better way to play the VDW because of the low house take.

Cheers

Nick

 

Hi All,

On another forum, Blue Angel posted that on all EC bets have two possible outcomes, always.

I agree.

So how do the people playing biased wheels keep winning? EC bets still have two outcomes. The odds have not changed. Why are they winning?

They are winning because the Laws of Physics have increased the accuracy of their predictions.

They still win because they are not playing random. They are playing with the Laws of Physics.

If you can understand this, then the same principal applys to using the Laws of Math as to using the Laws of Physics.

Using the Laws of Math, like VDW, we don't care if each bet has a 50/50 chance of winning. We are not playing the randome game. We are not changing the odds. It does not matter. It still wins.

It still wins becuase the Laws of Math increase the accuracy of predictions.

Cheers

Nick

 

NO it does NOT! That's absolutely absurd. You're merely falling deep into the confines of the gambler's fallacy! It's as absurd as claiming that the earth is flat.

 

Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone,

You're missing the possibility that NickMsi and others are posting from alternative universes where there exist different laws of physics. That would explain much.

Everyone knows that in this universe, it takes Olivia Newton John AND cucumbers, and possibly potatoes, to turn a negative EV game into a positive one.