Baccarat Very likely the Holy Grail

baccarat is a game where the 2 best bets, Banker or Player carry respectively a 1.06% and a 1.24% edge.
playing for the short run with a stop loss does not mean you have a better % expectation

many short runs added up will be the same as one long run

if a player goes on a gambling binge and plays 10,000 baccarat hands in one week his expectation is the same as that of a player who takes 5 years to play 10,000 hands

players who play with a stop loss are imagining that there is a gambling clock and when they quit for the day they have stopped that clock.
but there is no gambling clock. it is an artificial figment of the gambler's imagination. the house edge knows no time limit.

in can be calculated that if a player plays 10,000 hands of baccarat betting the same amount on either the player or the bank that he will end up losing something like 95% of the time (I'm estimating), I don't want to do a lengthy math example here.. it makes no difference at all how long it took him to play that many hands. the longer he plays, assuming he flat bets the more likely he will come very close to exactly what the mathematical expectation of his expected loss is.

 

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY. baccarat is a fun game with a very low house edge
you should be able to win more often than in a house game with a larger edge

but it is not possible to devise either a bet selection or money management system to ensure winning in the long run

 

yeah guys actually even my casino say to everyone to go home after he reaches his stop loss...pfffff

You want to make durably money? just mimick the casino, get an edge and play more hands you can.

 

Data? I don't see no data.

Outta here? I guess not yet.

Data for a debate? I don't see no data. Play for a living? Come on. You and I don't work. Most here probably work a job. We could quit gambling tomorrow and still live nicely enough. A lot different when gambling needs to pay the mortgage and feed the family.

Playing lots of hands or few? There is no right or wrong. Just different approaches. One can win either way. Knowing when to quit or back off to reduce losses requires experience, discipline, patience and is good Money management. So quitting while ahead is also good MM and good psychology but in and of itself has no statistical value.

Here's some data: Over last 4000 live bets I achieve 53+% win rate and average about 50 bets per shoe. I say "about" because that's one metric I don't keep track of. But I do keep track of W/L registry and dollars bet. I've also explained my bet selection perspective. Last 5 shoe got a 60% WR. I'll take it.
Ya know this ain't a competition here - or shouldn't be. Time constraints, proximity to B&M, available bankroll, financial goals, etc. all play a part in how people approach the game.

I'm pretty sure you'll be able to upload a couple shoes with some effort. What I'm not sure of is if it will provide any real data to be of help as you imply. Looking forward to it.

Nice having you back!

J

 

@Jimske

All those accessories can be useful if and only if you have an edge but them are useless if you don't have any...

 

actually a stop loss can have some value
compared to a player who plays for a long time assuming they are betting the same amount

since the player with the stop loss plays fewer hands he will lose less than the player who plays for a long time

not a winning system
but there is some value to it

 

Jim, I tried uploading the two shoes. It seems the uploading process has changed. I disagree with you on one thing, it is work but it is a really damn good job. Jimske, email me at [email protected], I will share notes with you.

 

Is Ivan posting at one or two topics here at the baccarat forums ? $ 500 chips and WG $ 1,500 - $ 2,500 per shoe , 3 shoes per fay ?



ND

 

Half smoke, 65% of the people that worked in the casino table games department goes to play during their days off. We know there are times where the casino are paying the players. We all know how to win BUT 99% of us refuse to quit when we are losing. We all know when to quit while ahead. We could win 10 to 15 days in a row and gave it all back in one day.

Therefore if we have a tentative stop loss point, we would have saved a lot of money. So your view of the stop loss needs to be reaccessed. Again do you believe in streaks and trends?

 

Yes, there are trends and/or streaks.

but for the times that the player will correctly predicts these streaks will continue and begins betting up will be offset by the times he predicts these streaks and/or trends will continue and they do not continue so he ends up losing more than if he had not bet up

if a person has a stop loss of 5 units, nothing in the world can eliminate the possibility that the player will lose those 5 units on 5 successive days.
a streak is possible there too

yes, a stop loss can save you money. but only because you have bet less money than the similar person without a stop loss who continues playing.


so, in that sense, as I said earlier, it is a good thing

being a casino employee may mean you have a good job with good benefits (maybe)

but it does not mean you have a special insight into how to beat a house game with a built in edge


GOOD LUCK

 

Dealers will see more play and players than most baccarat players, especially you less than 10 hands cats.

You can start playing with a huge bank roll and possibly lose all. All in one night or over a very long time. Baccarat and most everything in life related to performance comes down to skill. Non players only believe what non players say about how things are supposed to be. NPC arm chair quarterback types.

I can't believe how many of you think that dealers don't observe play. Are you high or do you just play with numbers and charts and stats about baccarat from a desk?

 

mathematicians have known and stated for hundreds of years that no betting system using bet selection or money management can overcome a house edge in a casino game

if anyone could ever prove that they could do this rather than just stating it or claiming it on a message board, they would in very short order become:


ONE OF THE MOST FAMOUS PEOPLE IN THE WORLD


they would even be more famous than Kim Kardashian

 

And baccarat players use a fully wrote, rigid system of play. And people wonder why online discussion of baccarat is deader than a hammer.

If any premise you desk quants was true at all then Wall Street from the dawn of time to present would have been dominated by mathematicians and scientists which it hasn't.

Roll out The Dark Wizard and his Black Riders challenge lofl. If you can present your 'x ^3 / y to the nth power over scuffle z system' that proves baccarat house edge can be beat.

bahahaha today starts with a laugh. Thanks for playing bros. Tell you what stick to your theories or The Dark Wizard and his Black Riders might come and get you with their 'In the Long Run' spell!

 

trends on Wall Street may be exploitable

they are very different from trends in a casino game

trends in the movement of a stock reflect human opinion which is at times predictable to some extent

a spinning wheel coming red or black is never predictable (unless there is some physical bias or defective equipment)

 

is that directed to me??????????????????????? "Thanks for playing bros"

 

Black or Red are more predictable than Bank or Player .



ND

 

how come if dealers know all this super secret info and vital stats and such, they are working for a small salary and few perks.??????

Or are they all rich on the side in secret???????????????????????? ROMAFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

You are the one who needs to be educated. The only way to win long term from the casino is to win in the dark. A small side income to subsidize your main one. Anyone who boast of big win is BS.

 

I reporting and typing my results from each gambling session i do at the baccarat table. 1 of 3 places i gamble at.

i do have a full time job that i work it 6 or 6.5 days a week, my own business that i earn enuff for living. I side put into with my baccarat winnings!!!!!!

simply found almost the opposite of what each person is doing at the correct time will produce good wins and results as they have for me.

i do not get tangled up into the game as i used to and everyone else does!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

my wins are not boasting, sorry you take that way bro!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! all facts

 

Craps, there are winning players of all sizes over all time frames.

John Blerg knows better, but he is really set on his certain views. Why do you think you see all players everywhere all around the world 24/ 7 and all cash in and cash out? SPECTRE that's how.

Nice attempt at an explanation of Wall Street, but no dice. Trends in baccarat are identifiable and exploitable. But oh yeah for those that never play, just bet Bank.

One huge factor is many players of all games are too impatient/ expect too much. That is how this thread started. So yeah, to John Blerg and real players point, very difficult to play a billion hours in a day/ week, etc. It takes skill, effort, and energy.