Sports Betting Villanova Bet

You made a great bet. You're going to triple your money, at the least. That is a great bet. You don't make these wagers thinking you're going to actually win the thing. You make the wagers to make money.

The problem with Villanova playing Kansas is that there are so many possessions in a Kansas game that Villanova will wear down and nobody will be able to defend all-out because if one or two 'Nova players pick up two or three early fouls, they have no players to plug in. It's brutal.

Kansas has some deficiencies, but not many. Their big men loaf a little when they transition to offense, but maybe they are taught to do that. Maybe it's a guard push transition and the big guys are told to hover back a bit until they actually need to set up. And their foul shooting was hideous last game. But those aren't much on which to hang your hat. And really, Villanova is lucky to be here. How often is Houston going to clunk 1 of 20 three-pointers in a game? I'll tell you how often -- never.

 

EXACTLY!

I am a Nova fan. Saw almost every game they played this year. Went to a game (Big5 city series game) back in November when I was in Philly.

While Nova was playing their best ball heading into the tournament, I had a short list of teams I didn't think they could beat. So while I was always going to be rooting for Nova to win it all, I knew if they got to the final 4 there would be hedging opportunities to make decent money. And that is exactly where I am at.

Now I was looking at the lines this morning. While I haven't seen money lines yet, Kansas is listed at -4.5 and Duke -4. Odd thing about that is ESPN does this thing probability of winning and they list Nova (the 4.5 underdog) at 51.5% probability of winning. I don't get that? In the other game Duke, the 4 point favorite has a 68% probability of winning. Again, I have no idea what formula or how this probability of winning is figured.

But for hedging, it is going to be about the money line numbers for me anyway.

 

ESPN must have been bitch slapped by Will Smith to post a number like that. Kansas is 70% to win the game.

 

It is something called Basketball Power Index that Espn uses. I have no idea how they come up with it, but they list Nova as 51.3% chance of winning and Kansas as 48.7.

Villanova vs. Kansas - Game Summary - April 2, 2022 - ESPN

 

Oh, I know the BPI. It's actually more respected than the seedings. The reason I didn't put bets on either Tennessee or Houston is because the BPI had the 'Nova bracket loaded for bear. This bracket had the second, third, fifth and 15th highest BPI teams.

Here's my bitching about seeding biases, and I discuss the BPI.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2022/03/sports-smoking-seeds-2022.html

and

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2022/03/first-round-hoops.html