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Misc Wellbush Paradox I and II

Discussion in 'Miscellaneous Gambling Forum' started by karumba, Oct 17, 2021.

  1. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    Really? Can you prove that -EV assumes a finite bankroll?
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2021
    beachedwhale likes this.
  2. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    This is a repost from the other thread. I see the discussion has been quite "heated". Good luck all...
     
  3. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    It's an absolutely fascinating thought to contemplate. I believe you are correct that if one had access to an infinite bankroll and there were no table or casino bet limits it would be almost impossible to lose as you could simply keep upping your bet after every loss until you won. Using infinities in gambling math is however mislead. Since there are table limits and casino limits and even a limit of how much money currently exists on the planet, the point is moot.

    When I did my analysis of a betting strategy for the baccarat team I ended up managing I was amazed that the "system" did move the needle away from 50/50 win or loss to roughly 85/15 win or loss over the course of a days play. Of course the 15% of the time one lost they lost 85% more. I gave my results to the investor and he soldered on seeming to focus only on the fact that he'd be winning more often.

    I believe this is due to a phenomenon known as base-rate-neglect.

    Anyway, while true, arguing about infinite bankrolls is pointless unless someone actually has one.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2021
  4. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    The thing is Frank, do we need to follow the progression sequence unto infinity in order to secure a winning system? If the system gives us enough profit in the short term, we can pull out of the progression sequences before we get into an overall losing position. That's my quest. I'm working on it
     
  5. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I have no issues with anything you just said.

    If you can adapt that paradigm to finding me a life mate I will pay good money!
     
  6. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    if I came up with such a scheme and told you about it, I'd have to kill you!
    Well, almost. The thing is, coming up with such a scheme where you don't require AP, and you can use it virtually across all games, why would you tell anyone? The casinos would gobble it up for all it's worth and make the necessary adjustments to stop gamblers beating them. So no offence, but if I eventually come up with a holy grail, I'd just keep it to myself. I am happy to give out clues though.
    Actually I noticed something similar on this site. Junket King seems to have a Labouchere variation that he stands by. That's the kind of negative progression system that's similar to what I'm working on.

    I note your family has brains. Great. Mine does too.
     
  7. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    If you want to try something that may be profitable, you could also tinker with Junket King's Labouchere variation. There are plenty of free games that you could trial it on.
     

  8. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Your statement seems to imply that killing me would be a bad thing, and not a kindness. Much love!

    P.S. Tell us about your family, memory is how we keep them alive. You aren't really dead until you are forgotten...wait, who am I ?
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2021
  9. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    My father: medical technologist. His father: inventor/businessman. My older brother: lecturer (senography). Me: Bach. Arts (Psychology).
     
  10. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I love the diversity and the creativity. I think our families would have gotten on well. I'm curious to know, since your older brother works in senography has he heard of Ted & JoAnna Kneeland from the early days of Australian Broadcasting. I wasn't born yet but I believe set design and construction were amongst the things my parents trained people to do during their five year contract.

    Trivia: They were both paid $500,000 a year in 1950's money...and their contract stipulated that they could not do more than 12 hours of training in either Sydney or Melbourne without catching the other up to the same point. Apparently, there was a great rivalry between the two cities and neither wanted the other one to be ahead of them.

    Lastly: as you studied Psychology, I thought you might like to know I'm going into the field of Linguistic Relativity (Sapir Worf Hypothesis)
     
  11. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    I think I made a spelling error... sonography, not senography. He's a radiographer, so I don't think that's related to tv broadcasting. Yes, there is an economic rivalry between Melbourne and Sydney.

    I'll look up linguistic relativity and see what it's about. I know psychology probably does get into linguistics.
     
  12. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Yeah, "senography" pertains to set design and painting. LOL. You are forgiven. I wouldn't have known how to spell it either. Interesting entomology coming to us from the Latin words for for sight and sound.

    P.S. Psychology is only just now crossing over into the realm of linguistics. I recommend looking up Lera Boraditsky and watching her TED talk.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2021
  13. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    Linguistic relativity seems like a very interesting field of study. In particular, the Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis. Do you have a college degree already, or are you embarking on college studies just now?

    I was a mature-age student myself. Completed my studies in 2014 at the age of 50. Geez, not that long ago. Seems like an eternity when I think about it, but 7 years isn't really that long.

    I did my studies part-time. Took me 9.5 years. They told they may not grant me a degree if I let it go to 10 years, so I got it finished just in time.

    I never would have thought I'd get a college degree when I started. But every unit I started, except for one, I passed. One thing lead to the next, and 9.5 years later I really enjoyed my graduation ceremony.
     
  14. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    Psychology, of itself, is a very interesting field of study. I wish I had a few thousand years to live, so I can investigate so many things. Alas, we're not immortal but I believe the heavens will be more than enjoyable enough when I get there.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2021

  15. porky

    porky Active Member

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    I'm glad I read the other thread and ended up on this one.
    It's not just the math the casino runs other scams on roulette, craps, blackjack and baccarat.
    I would like to comment on math first. I've said this stuff in another thread but here goes again.
    Someone close to me majored in math. They started in one major university and ended in another.
    At the time I was a avid craps player. College professor 1 explained in class how craps was unbeatable and had all the math to back it up.
    I got an ear full. But I also knew what I was doing.
    College professor 2 aparently studied the same subject. Everything I had stated by him was correct and people could get rich doing it if allowed.
    I didn't get rich but got banned twice. Another story.
    Now Frank BJ does not offer any advantage when you count cards. That is a scam promoted by authors and casinos because it gives them the right to cut service to Any winning player. Don't tell me about the winning teams either. Alot of them threw good money after bad and lost entire bank rolls but that does'nt get talked about does it? I have asked this same question dozens of times. If you have 4 cards 3 tens and an ace, who gets the bj you or the dealer. Wow its 50-50. The only time it could be an advantage is on a moderate count and the dealer has to get into a bust cycle. Last time I brought this up a guy commented that the payout is what gives you an advantage. Now it even less than time and a half and some so called experts admit its not even playable. Don Johnson the last to win millions playing blackjack even stated only a sucker would play a floor game. If you watch how he did it, it was genius but he even said he could have lost. I was told online that according to experts its impossible to lose 20 hands in a row playing bj. I have accomplished this feat 3 times on 3 seperate occasions. I was told it was because I didn't understand the game. You have no affect on the order of the cards. Your decision is simply hit or not and you have no effect on a dealer hitting 20, and bj repeatedly. Hell I got so cocky, drunk and pissed off the one time I was calling the dealers blackjack before he dealt it. He looked at me and asked how I knew your counting cards. I said damn right and alot of good it does.
    The math they give on roulette is worse than what they project. Odds in craps is the best bet in the casino?
    The majority of authors are clueless on what really happens in the casino. There are rare exceptions.
     
  16. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    It's all good stuff to ponder, porky
     

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