1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Join our $5,000 Cash Giveaway!

    Win Cash by Posting and Inviting New Members!
  3. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  4. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play sub-forum.
    Dismiss Notice

Blackjack What are your "ploppyisms"?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Forum' started by DoubleDownSoft21, May 7, 2019.

  1. OK, this isn't for the pros out there. I know, they've been crushing it since day 1, great variance right from the start. They maybe encountered their negative variance later on, after they've seen they can beat the game. And I certainly don't believe in everything I'm listing below. Some it is just anecdotal evidence with many too many coincidences. There's a few which I may believe a bit. But for those who are relatively new, or went thru some struggles early on, what did you notice that surprised you? What happened but wasn't supposed to according to most of the books out there?

    Here's a few from me:

    1. Neutral and smallish negative counts are NOT death. I try to Wong out at negative 2; I've seen too many negative ones turn around quickly. Know the indices; you have small or minimum bets out there anyways. Granted, the upside is limited, but IMO the TC of 0 and -1 aren't going to make you poor. And it may keep you at a table which produces a much better shoe following the shuffle.

    2. There are some days, for whatever reason, in which the dealer draws to 20 on about 75% of the hands. And they draw some 3 to 5 card 21s as well. There is no logic to this, and it shouldn't happen, but it does. And there's other days where their card distribution appears completely normal. I don't believe in "hot dealers" or "hot tables". But I am a bit paranoid about possibly being cheated. There have been instances where I've been hesitant to raise my bet as much as I should because after seeing the dealer getting 20 after 20 after 20, it made me gun shy. But what is really odd is that it seems to become apparent early on and stays that way. Its either "normal" or one of THOSE days. Card clumping?

    3. Even during one of these insane runs by the dealer, I'm surprised how little they draw to blackjack. If one is supposed to mathematically get blackjack about once for every 21 hands, I would guess its more like one in 35 to 40 hands for the dealer. This brings me to point 4.

    4. When I get insurance, it rarely works. I generally ignore the ploppies but it is irritating when they shake their head after I ask for insurance and the dealer gets a non-face card. I've been playing for about a year and a half, so there could be some sample size issues here. I get the concept and follow the process; the outcomes just have not been what they should be.

    5. When the dealer has an ace as his/her upcard or hole card, they win at least 75% of the time. I would love to see actual numbers on it. If someone tells me its 54%, I will not believe it. I saw it did lose today. Once. Look for it next time you play. If you don't have a 20 or 21, forget it. You are beaten.

    6. This is an odd one that is purely anecdotal and silly; when a dealer is showing a 10, they seemingly never have a 3 or 4 for their hole card. Obviously, they often have a ten. And sometimes, they will even have the dreaded 5 or 6. When counting a table, there's quite a few hands that "cancel out". Player A will have a Queen and a 4, Player B will have a King and a 5, you have a Jack and a 3. You see that when you count and many player hands cancel out. I guess that's how I noticed this oddity, which is likely not real at all.

    7. In the previous 100 hours I've played, I've clearly had worse results as the counts got more positive. It's not SUPPOSED to be that way. But there are times where the count creeps up, and just doesn't come down. And likewise, I've had negative counts where I've told myself I will Wong out once I lose two hands in a row.....and it doesn't happen as the count just keeps going down as I (along with others) are recipients of the face cards. Clumping?

    OK, so which ones do I believe, or partially believe? Numbers 1 and 5. Number 7 unfortunately, has been true, at least for the last 100 hours I've played.

    Source.
     

Share This Page