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Baccarat What are your pre-determined bet selections and the trigger you wait for before placing your bets?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jon Wick, Sep 8, 2021.

  1. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    There is no way to always win. But there is a way to win a lot of the time by waiting until conditions are correct before you bet and not betting when conditions are not correct. The biggest problem people have in roulette is they bet every single spin because they have no method or plan. They have no knowledge of what the outcomes mean even though they stare at the number board like they do. They might as well just take their chips and throw handfuls of them on the layout. They have just as much chance of winning doing that as carefully placing them.

    I saw a guy years ago who was winning every spin by betting on the first and third dozen because the second dozen was sleeping. He won like 12 or 13 in a row and was just ecstatic. I pointed out to him that the second dozen wasn't going to sleep forever and he looked at me like I'd lost my freaking mind. He had no idea what I was talking about. So sure enough when the second doesn't woke up he kept betting the first and third dozens and lost his money twice as fast as he won it. It didn't happen all at once but very shortly all his money was gone. He left the table dazed and shell shocked. That's what I get for trying to wise up a sucker.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2021
  2. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I am not trying to be contrary, but it's funny you would use Santa Claus as an example. I was raised by parents that refused to lie to me and made sure I knew from day one that Santa Claus was a delusional fantasy enjoyed by other people. I was admonished not to ruin anyone else's fun that believed in the myth...but I never enjoyed it myself. I learned to enjoy clarity of thought and truth. I was told Santa was not real from day one.

    You cannot both say that something is not real and yet also contains actionable information. These are mutually exclusive concepts. "reoccurring patterns" are only pointless noise unless you can explain the method of causation behind the naturally occurring patterns that grow out of any and all random events.

    Spotting patterns is actually a sign of high IQ, and spotting patterns that don't exist is more prevalent in intelligent people than those of lesser ability. It's one of the paradoxes of cognition.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2021
  3. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Sure you can, I do it every day. What difference does it make if they're real or not real if they reoccur on an extremely regular basis.
    That's the key here, that's why they are exploitable. They happen with very very dependable regularity. Kind of like the random waves of the ocean make very regular discernible patterns in the sand on the shoreline. It looks like they were made on purpose but they were actually made randomly.

    I've wondered about that. I've met people then I tried to show the patterns to and they don't see them even when I point them out explicitly. I'll show them black black red red black black red red and they don't see a pattern there. It all looks like gobbledygook to them. Probably how a Rubik's Cube looks to my dog.
     
  4. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Member

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    Why is that sad. Finding patterns is a human trait that helped us to evolve the last million years. The reoccurring patterns and trends in roulette are very exploitable whether they exist or not. I'm not sure exactly why you have a problem with that. I have been doing it every day for the last 17 years and I'm still learning. At the end of this month year number 18 starts. Remember when you were a little kid and believed in Santa Claus and wrote letters to him this time of year? I certainly believed he was real and to me he was real whether he existed or not. The reason patterns and trends are exploitable is because the same ones happen again and again and again. What difference does it make if they aren't real, they are still a road map to upcoming events.[/QUOTE]
    I played Roulette for 1 year and found several patterns I made an excel spreadsheet to play. I have patterns for playing numbers. But I stopped because when the negative variance comes, I return all the profit and they are still losing.
    So I'm managing to have greater control in baccarat.
    And it looks like he's been playing for a long time if he wants to talk later it will be an honor.
     
  5. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Why do you keep playing when the negative variance is happening. It's no longer playing your game you have to stop and wait for it to start playing your game again.
    You have to learn how to spot the negative variance.
     
  6. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Spike,

    Variance = luck. Luck can't be predicted. You can only spot bad luck or good luck AFTER it's already happened.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2021
  7. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely not true, Caleb. If the outcomes stop playing your game you stop betting. It's very easy to spot if you know what you're looking for. Took me awhile to figure it out but everybody has a very specific game they're playing whether they know it or not. And if you can see where the outcomes are not playing that game you can just stop betting and wait for it to come back your way. I do it by betting virtually and if I'm losing doing that I sure as hell am going to lose if I was betting real money.
     

  8. porky

    porky Active Member

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    The whole patterns are imaginary is hilarious. High IQ to see them? Really? I know I pissed in some peoples corn flakes with the 50 50 post but here I go again. What is the first decision? P or B? It has to be one or the other excluding ties that is one someone always brings up to show its not 50 50. Since we get a push on tie they for all intensive purposes don't exist unless your trying to track them.
    Lets say its a P. Now we look at the next 50 50. Could be either but what do you call the one thing that gets brought up diminishing probabilities? So the odds change so slightly to B but it is so slight it could still be P. So with a 50 50 continueance the most prominent pattern in Bac is...... the one two. PPB or BBP. With the game breaking down to the 50 50 rule of 50 being singles 50 being doubles or more the two's being 25 percent three or more 25 and so on. This has been supported by a numerous studies but has never been to my knowledge fully exploited because the randomness makes it so you never know when the balance happens.
    Several people have built games on tracking certain plays and when certain things get ahead or behind by a certain amount bet the other way.
    One guy that used to frequent the forums when I explained that its not one shoe but all together, built a long term game on the balance and claims to be successful.
    I can't stay that long at a table the marathon sessions are a thing of the past. There are set patterns you can use to track the shoe. Some patterns perform better than others. I still think that tracking a solid pattern and running its hits and missess through another pattern delivers the best in terms of consistent results. The pattern of wins and losses is the most important.
    Years ago the guy that has that Vegas insider Anthony, hosted a show on the travel channel where dealers, authors, and pro gamblers competed at roulette, craps, blackjack, and baccarat. Baccarat won like three shows in row and the game got dropped.
    I still remember the lady dealer when asked her strategy that she played follow the two. If you played that you would hit all streaks past two. You would win all chops. You would lose only to the back to back twos just like dbl. Now if you cut it at three losses and picked back up when its hitting tracking it can still be proffitable. Now run it through another pattern and the dealers may be looking at you like your the devil when you hit 5,6,or 7 decisions in a row.
    Patterns have to exist the truth tables themselve are patterns. If you can get on the right one. The statement system sellers make is that it wins 2 out of 3 shoes. It could also lose 3 out of 3 or for a year or longer. Because it hasn't happend to them doesn't mean random won't stick out its ugly tongue. But the one consistency bac has is its need to come to balance.
     
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  9. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    What an amazing explanation that is porky.
    That s the problem and why we can t win guaranteed, because we do not know when the game will come back to its balance.
    I can t talk much about baccarat how long it takes to come back to its balance but one thing is for sure.
    If you play roulette long enough with statistics you will see that.
    When a wheel or even a RNG(done both)roulette comes to a biased state can t stay there forever and that s a fact.
    But the problem is we have to decide when we will jump in and start our betting.
    In this case of course we talk about flat betting because we count on the statistical biased state the roulette is.
     
  10. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    I've wondered about that. I've met people then I tried to show the patterns to and they don't see them even when I point them out explicitly. I'll show them black black red red black black red red and they don't see a pattern there. It all looks like gobbledygook to them. Probably how a Rubik's Cube looks to my dog.[/QUOTE]

    What are you waiting exactly?
    What patterns are you betting on?
     
  11. judge

    judge Active Member

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    When you speak of the lady dealer playing follow the two, is that the same as DBL (decision before last)?
     
  12. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Just to clarify one point I did not mean to say that patterns were imaginary. That would imply they don't exist. They do exist.

    I question their actionable efficacy, not their existence. In scientific circles this is known as correlation without causation. Scientists often begin research based on a detected pattern. Their second step is always to figure out what's causing the pattern by eliminating variables and bias.

    If you look at any sequence of random trials such as occur in baccarat it would be more surprising if no patterns arose. Even a lack of pattern would still be a pattern.

    The primary salient question is, "Are they predictors of the future?"

    The follow up question if the answer was "yes" is then, "How are they predictors of the future?

    Better worded, "What is the mechanism by which a bank or player win on the previous hand could possibly influence the next hand?"

    When Bayes' Therm is applied to testing the historicity of a historical claim it incorporates the concept of what evidence we would expect if the claim was true or false. We could apply this same logic to baccarat.

    1. If patterns are a predictor of the future what sort of patterns would you expect to see in the game of baccarat?

    2. If patterns are NOT a predictor of the future what sort of patterns would you expect to see in the game of baccarat?

    Basically, it's an argument for the null hypothesis: We are saying if it's all just meaningless patterns what would that look like? compared to what it would look like if the patterns have meaning.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2021
  13. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Patterns have absolutely zero influence on the next outcome, how could they. In roulette for example, you're dealing with a very finite number of possible outcomes because there's only 37 or 38 pockets. So you're going to have constantly repeating patterns and trends, of a very limited nature. And if you study this for a long enough time, it seems to obey certain unexplainable rules for at least part of the time. The previous spins have absolutely no physical effect on the next spin but they can have a very positive effect on your decision for your next bet. Why do math people have such a problem with this, that because it doesn't physically effect the next spin it has to be rejected out of hand as useless. Do you really think I've been doing this every day for the last 17 years and it doesn't work? I will do it for an hour this evening and if it's playing my game it will work like a charm. If it's not playing my game I will see that and save my money for when it is. And people here know I've been doing it for 17 years because I joined GG in 2006 and talked about this for five years in over 20,000 posts. I'm not just somebody showing up here brand-new talking out his ass. I have street cred.
     
  14. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I think I've actually figured out the reason for our disconnect. We have slightly different definitions of the word "real" in this context. It's one of those fungible words that doesn't mean exactly the same thing to everyone.

    I especially liked your analogy of the ocean waves and how a largely random process creates patterns that look non-random. I may use that one myself in the future. THANKS!
     

  15. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    My point was that you can successfully predict the patterns the waves will form in the sand from random events. If you can do that, and you obviously can, why can't you predict a future spin in roulette by looking at the past spins. You obviously can because I do it everyday.
     
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  16. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    The only issue for me in anything you just said is your use of the word, "unexplainable". I just have a hard time with things I can't explain, but that's my failing not yours. Thank you for taking the time to reply, I think I got where you are coming from much better that time.

    To your street cred you may now officially add: "Successfully Explained Something to a Math Guy"
     
  17. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    We are surrounded by unexplainable things that we use to our advantage everyday. Do you know that electricity and why it works is still not understood? We know how to manufacture it and how to transmit it and how to use it but much about why electricity works and what it is is a mystery. Should we not use it till the mystery is solved? That would be ridiculous. Just like you can use what's happening with random outcomes in roulette without understanding why they are happening. Too many math people live in a cage of their own making. People all over the world made alcohol for thousands of years by various means and had zero idea of why it worked or what they were doing. It was such a mystery that they called it 'spirits' because they thought it had something to do with the spirit world. Did not understanding it stop them from making it? Not hardly.
     
  18. porky

    porky Active Member

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    No the strike pattern is slightly different. If you go into the terrible twos they will match on misses. Exercise do vertical p and b col.
    then 3 more col. Col 1 mark when it hits balanced. Naturally the you will have circles for the hits and leave the misses blank. For the sake of tracking although you could say pppp or bbbb is imbalanced track those as balanced. Also bpbp is ballanced bppb balanced bbpp balanced. Col 2 follow the 2. If its a pp stay on that side till a bb stay there till a pp you could constantly be changing sides or stay on one for a while. The third col someone stated recently they play this. It plays to follow. Follow the decision till it fails example ppppb when the b hits play bbp if one of the three hit start over and stay on that side for a miss if all three miss follow the last again. Its fol til a miss then fol fol chop fol. Now if you want to do a fourth dbl col fine.

    Now looking at those three bet selections you can see how they perform the same in spots and different in others.
    Looking at how they hit and miss works better than playing only for hits.
    Any of those three can at times be played back to back following the hits or misses. Or they can have several single hit or misses.
    They produce more play than looking straight at p and b decisions.
    It depends on what you encounter my favorite is follow hits to hit and misses to miss when the trigger is hhmm or reverse. And singles with gaps I will usually wait till it comes back after the h or m for the nice gap.
     
  19. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    I don’t understand columns. I never have. Don’t know how to set them up. Don’t know how many columns to have etc.
     
  20. judge

    judge Active Member

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    Clear as mud.
     

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