Baccarat What are your pre-determined bet selections and the trigger you wait for before placing your bets?

Really?
Could you share the numbers?
Also how many units can you make on a shoe like that?
If you can make 5 units on average it s well worth it.

 

I've already made some flat bets in this method which is nothing more than seeking the average return.
The average is 70 hands per shoe which averages 35 P and 35 B.
If even hand number 50o I find a difference of 12 to 15 I go in favor of the weaker side, and my trigger is when it comes 3 in a row on the dominant side.
Then I enter looking to earn 1 to 2 units.

I've seen a difference at the end of the 25 shoe but it's rare to see this difference.

 

I am not technically avoiding the question. I believe in my earlier post I promised NOT to comment on whether or not I agree with you. I am refraining from comment based on that promise. I do not break my promises--ever, regardless of how much I might wish to. My word is my bond.

I will only say that I hope you are correct. It would make the world a better place, and life far more worth living. I would be very happy if you are correct. Truly happy.

My adherence to pure math has not always served me well. They say that hope survives, because it is the one thing man has not yet learned to shoot. Probability math might be the magic silver bullet that kills hope, though I am not entirely clear that hope is something we should be hunting, and serving up for holiday dinner with an extra side of brown gravy.

-------------------------

P.S. I do not think you are, "totally full of it". If I did, we would not be talking. I think people come to different conclusions based on their life experience, and I acknowledge that my life and my own experience is atypical. Doubt is the beginning of all true wisdom. I doubt myself far more than I do you, and peace be with you.

 

Yes, I am correct. I've been doing this for 17 years every day, practicing or playing for real. It works very very well. I don't know why that makes the world a better place, but it works just fine. It's never shocked or amazed me because when I started out I had no idea people thought you couldn't do it. It wasn't until I'd been doing it for almost 2 years that I joined a gambling forum and was called every name in the book. I thought it was the most natural thing in the world and I thought lots of people did it. Boy was I wrong. People love to say about roulette that only math beats a math game. That's ridiculously untrue. I know almost no math and I discovered a way to beat it anyway. Decades ago I took flying lessons and there is a tremendous amount of math involved in plane flight. Nobody made me learn that math when I took the lessons and I flew the plane just fine. Knowing the math of roulette has nothing to do with beating it. Knowing the house edge has nothing to do with getting a better edge yourself then the casino has.

 

Great job brother.

 

I understand what you mean. In the 1 year I play roulette, there are certain moments that I have the exact feeling of where the ball will end up.
I have some patterns. But it looks like you've mastered it. Congratulations!!!

 

It is +EV flat betting but only makes +0.68 units per shoe on my data. You observe the Player / Banker counts in the shoe. If Player is 70% or greater (looking at hands 15 through 35 of the shoe only) you bet Banker the rest of the shoe. That is pretty much it. If you start too early or too late in the shoe it loses money so be aware. You can start as early as hand 13 and still be okay but I would not start beyond hand 35.

 

Doesn't seem worth it to make less than 1 unit per shoe. Certainly it falls within the margin of error.

 

I agree. Out of every 100 shoes you encounter only about 9 will be playable. Since it is +EV you could use a progression and push the profits higher. You really are just raising your average bet by doing this but it would smooth out the results a bit.

 

Thanks for your reply and your data.

 

Maybe but it s a winning method long term.
If you have something better you can share.

 

If you have to use some progression playing this way what would that be?

 

Your opportunities are few so you cannot really continue the progression into the next shoe. You would have to go with a martingale, I suppose. Or you could just increase the amount you flat bet to the average of your martingale bets, but profits would be more volatile.

I will post a couple of example shoes here from my database later with comments to give you an idea.

 

Here is an example where play started early. I would not recommend betting before hand 13.

Shoe, Hand, Result

1606,1,P
1606,2,P
1606,3,B
1606,4,B
1606,5,P
1606,6,P
1606,7,P
1606,8,P
1606,9,P
1606,10,B
1606,11,P
1606,12,P << 75% Player
1606,13,P << 77% Player
1606,14,P << 79% Player
1606,15,P << 80% Player
1606,16,P << Start betting Banker
1606,17,B
1606,18,P
1606,19,B
1606,20,P
1606,21,P
1606,22,B
1606,23,P
1606,24,P
1606,25,P
1606,26,P
1606,27,B
1606,28,B
1606,29,B
1606,30,B
1606,31,P
1606,32,B
1606,33,P
1606,34,B
1606,35,B
1606,36,B
1606,37,P
1606,38,B
1606,39,B
1606,40,B
1606,41,B << Peak Profit +3.25
1606,42,P
1606,43,P
1606,44,P
1606,45,P
1606,46,P
1606,47,B
1606,48,P
1606,49,B
1606,50,P
1606,51,P
1606,52,B
1606,53,B
1606,54,B
1606,55,P
1606,56,P
1606,57,P
1606,58,P
1606,59,B
1606,60,B
1606,61,B
1606,62,P
1606,63,B
1606,64,P
1606,65,B
1606,66,B
1606,67,B
1606,68,B
1606,69,P
1606,70,B << End Profit +1.55

Here is an example where play started later in the shoe.

1627,1,P
1627,2,B
1627,3,P
1627,4,B
1627,5,P
1627,6,P
1627,7,B
1627,8,B
1627,9,P
1627,10,P
1627,11,P
1627,12,B
1627,13,B
1627,14,B
1627,15,P << 53% Player (No Bet)
1627,16,P
1627,17,P
1627,18,B
1627,19,P
1627,20,P
1627,21,P
1627,22,P
1627,23,P
1627,24,P
1627,25,P
1627,26,P
1627,27,P << 70% Player
1627,28,B << Start Betting Banker
1627,29,P
1627,30,P
1627,31,P
1627,32,P
1627,33,B
1627,34,P
1627,35,B
1627,36,P
1627,37,B
1627,38,P
1627,39,B
1627,40,B
1627,41,B
1627,42,P
1627,43,P
1627,44,B
1627,45,P
1627,46,B
1627,47,B
1627,48,B
1627,49,B
1627,50,B
1627,51,P
1627,52,P
1627,53,B
1627,54,B
1627,55,B << Peak Profit +3.20
1627,56,P
1627,57,P
1627,58,P
1627,59,B
1627,60,B
1627,61,P
1627,62,P
1627,63,B
1627,64,B
1627,65,B
1627,66,P
1627,67,P
1627,68,P
1627,69,P << End Profit (-1.05)

I hope this helps you, hotjohnnn. Remember that if you get to hand 35 and Player is still not at 70% then the shoe does not qualify.

 

[QUOTE = "fathead, post: 130295, member: 4194"] Aqui está um exemplo em que o jogo começou cedo. Eu não recomendaria apostar antes da mão 13.

Sapato, Mão, Resultado

1606,1, P
1606,2, P
1606,3, B
1606,4, B
1606,5, P
1606,6, P
1606,7, P
1606,8, P
1606,9, P
1606,10, B
1606,11, P
1606,12, P << 75% Jogador
1606,13, P << 77% Jogador
1606,14, P << 79% Jogador
1606,15, P << 80% Jogador
1606,16, P << Comece a apostar Banqueiro
1606,17, B
1606,18, P
1606,19, B
1606,20, P
1606,21, P
1606,22, B
1606,23, P
1606,24, P
1606,25, P
1606,26, P
1606,27, B
1606,28, B
1606,29, B
1606,30, B
1606,31, P
1606,32, B
1606,33, P
1606,34, B
1606,35, B
1606,36, B
1606,37, P
1606,38, B
1606,39, B
1606,40, B
1606,41, B << Lucro máximo +3,25
1606,42, P
1606,43, P
1606,44, P
1606,45, P
1606,46, P
1606,47, B
1606,48, P
1606,49, B
1606,50, P
1606.51, P
1606.52, B
1606.53, B
1606.54, B
1606.55, P
1606,56, P
1606.57, P
1606.58, P
1606.59, B
1606,60, B
1606,61, B
1606.62, P
1606,63, B
1606,64, P
1606,65, B
1606,66, B
1606,67, B
1606,68, B
1606,69, P
1606,70, B << Lucro final +1,55

Aqui está um exemplo em que o jogo começou mais tarde no sapato.

1627,1, P
1627,2, B
1627,3, P
1627,4, B
1627,5, P
1627,6, P
1627,7, B
1627,8, B
1627,9, P
1627,10, P
1627,11, P
1627.12, B
1627,13, B
1627,14, B
1627,15, P << 53% Jogador (sem aposta)
1627,16, P
1627,17, P
1627,18, B
1627,19, P
1627,20, P
1627,21, P
1627,22, P
1627,23, P
1627,24, P
1627,25, P
1627,26, P
1627,27, P << 70% Jogador
1627,28, B << Comece a apostar banqueiro
1627,29, P
1627,30, P
1627,31, P
1627,32, P
1627,33, B
1627,34, P
1627,35, B
1627,36, P
1627,37, B
1627,38, P
1627,39, B
1627,40, B
1627,41, B
1627,42, P
1627,43, P
1627,44, B
1627,45, P
1627,46, B
1627,47, B
1627,48, B
1627,49, B
1627,50, B
1627.51, P
1627.52, P
1627.53, B
1627.54, B
1627,55, B << Lucro máximo +3,20
1627.56, P
1627.57, P
1627.58, P
1627.59, B
1627,60, B
1627,61, P
1627,62, P
1627,63, B
1627,64, B
1627.65, B
1627,66, P
1627,67, P
1627,68, P
1627,69,P << End Profit (-1.05)

I hope this helps you, hotjohnnn. Remember that if you get to hand 35 and Player is still not at 70% then the shoe does not qualify.[/QUOTE]
Excellent Example!
Very didactic.

 

Why play in shoes and not in sessions ?

 

I greatly appreciate you and your data.
I think this kind of method is better to play it in roulette especially when you can find a la-partage table.

 

No problem. That would be a great table. Unfortunately we are stuck with double zero roulette and (increasingly) 6 to 5 blackjack here in the states. The casinos don't like to lose. Good luck to you.

 

That might work. Maybe look at the last 13 hands for 70% player and then starting flat betting banker for a specific and limited amount of hands for either a small profit or a loss.

 

Your post slipped through my radar as I was only replying to replies. Sorry.

This is a very salient point.

Luck should only be a retrospective analysis. However, their is significant temporal distortion related to the concept. Even more if we include linguistic relativity effects. The word shifts in time across languages, past present or future, and also varies in its negative or positive connotation. In ancient Greek, for instance, it's only retrospective and it's a flat out insult. Call someone lucky and you might get slapped.

In mandarin Chinese it's a blessing for the future.

In English it seems to mean whatever people want it to...