Baccarat What are your pre-determined bet selections and the trigger you wait for before placing your bets?

I do not believe luck exists. It's just a catch-all word we use to describe things we don't understand that happen to us. People use it so much did the word has lost all meaning. If you dig into almost any event that is described as luck you will find what really happened. And luck had nothing to do with it.

 

I just tested your method on 40 shoes, flat betting, waiting for a 70% Banker or Player dominant side before betting, placing bets before hand 35 in the shoe if there was a trigger.

My results were 30 units out of 60 shoes. Max draw down was -25 units which took 5 shoes to bounce back to +1, but still got there. Only had +1 unit goal for a shoe and would reset until the next shoe after a win. Most flat betting sequences got to +1 within 10 hands.

This is very small test sample, but looks promising. Even though it was .5 units per shoe on average, betting with $100 units or a higher denomination could still allow you decent profits. 60 shoes, betting $100 units, average 1 shoe per hour, is still $50/hr. Not bad, for a method with very calm escalation. The theory makes sense, the player and banker are always seeking "balance" as some have mentioned here on this forum.

Whats the max draw down that you have you had in your testing so far and how shoes have you tested?

 

I believe you are right sir...

I am really fond of the ancient Greek definition (modern Greek has lost this nuance). Basically, in ancient Greek, if you called someone "lucky" (τυχερός--tycherós), you were saying that whatever good things had happened to that person were due to no fault of their own. Lucky was an insult, and an admonition to take that person's success with a grain of salt, or perhaps an entire shaker.

It amazes me on how many things you and I agree. I look forward to further discussion.

 

P.S. I would wish you good luck, but we've already established that this is an insult. I will wish you good skill instead!

 

I would not bet on the Player side if you get a 70% Bankers. That bet lost very consistently flat betting. The results are skewed toward the Banker side since Banker wins at greater than 50%.

Peak to valley drawdown was about -120 units which, unfortunately, is within normal range for flat betting a near 50:50 game. I have always said that it is the volatility that bankrupts bettors more often than the house edge.

In my testing, you made more money by just accepting the profit at the end of shoe rather than having a profit target.

I did try adding a stop loss per shoe. -6, -7, or -8 unit stop loss (after commission) per shoe worked well cutting the peak to valley drawdown by about one-third. It also increased profits somewhat. So you might try that.

I am glad that you showing positive results.

 

I never play the slot machines, that's my wife's job. In 2000 I was waiting for her to get done and I was sitting at a slot machine not playing. The guy next to me was playing his machine for about 20 minutes, when he finally gave up and wandered away. So for the heck of it I put a $5 bill into his machine and two spins later I won $2,500. They came around and I filled out the paperwork and they paid me and that was that. All the way home my wife kept saying that I was so lucky, it wasn't fair because I was lucky. It wasn't luck at all I just happened to be in the right place at the right time. Once I got the $2,500 I didn't put any of it back in the machine to see if my 'luck' would hold up. Luck was not the reason I won, why would I think I would be in the right place at the right time twice in a row. I have never put money in a slot machine since and never will. Why would I. Life is full of unconnected random events that people like to label luck, good or bad. I would rather be skillful than lucky.

The icing on the cake to the story is I totally forgot about the win and never claimed it on my income tax. And I never heard a word about it from the government. Those were the days when Indian casinos would often throw away a lot of the paperwork and never send it in because it saved them having to hire somebody to keep track of everything. I'm sure that's what happened to me. So that was even more luck, LOL

 

Thanks for clarifying on the banker bets. Ill try the -6,-7,-8 unit stop loss and see how it performs. -120 unit drawdown could have been dozens of shoes potentially to bounce back, so I can see why you recommend a stop loss.

Thanks for actually showing your method of play and how it works. Showing a method with evidence to support it, and allowing others to verify, test and clarify it, seems like the best use of time on a forum.

Not sure why most people on this forum post "filler" material. Saying a lot, but really nothing of substance at all. Theoretical, airy fairy, mumbo jumbo, with no method, no explanation and "oh im a winner, but Ill never post my method B.S."

 

I f$%^ing love this story. That is my exact definition of "luck". Having the Indian casino lose your jackpot records was not expected and yet it happened and was positive. One might almost say it was "lucky".

Simply hitting a jackpot on a slot machine which has "jackpots" that one can ostensible hit, was simply one of the many possible outcomes which out-came (poetic license invoked on declining 'outcome').

We may disagree on a few things, but we have identical definitions of luck.

How lucky?

 

Yes. I understood how slot machines worked that's why I never played them. It's why I've never put another dime into a slot machine. At this point I'm $2,500 in the black for playing slots which is further ahead than 99.9% of all slot players. I beat playing the slots with only two spins. I have nothing else to prove. My wife is so far in the red she'll never break even let alone be in profit. She doesn't understand why I don't wander around the casino randomly playing machines. Why would I do that.

 

The only thing I could think of reading this post was how lucky I've been dating strippers. Followed up by the admonition that I haven't... Much love.

 

You are very welcome. Someone sent this one to me a few years ago. As it was described, it did not do very well but I was able to modify it into something positive. This version does seem to win if you have the patience. Good luck to you.

 

Very Good. I think a stop gain would also be interesting! Or not?

 

I did not find a profit stop that improved results. You were better off just flat betting until the end of the shoe.

 

Just done with my baccarat session at the casino. Usually using a steeper progression, tried a smaller one today, 1,2,4. 3 lost progressions (-21 units), +25 units won. Total 4 units, still decent for a couple hours, but not nearly as profitable as a steeper progression.

 

A man of action. I like it. I am glad that I helped you in some small way.

Was it difficult to find a playable shoe? You are in California where baccarat is king so maybe you have lots of tables to choose from.

 

There were plenty of shoes to choose from, 15+ baccarat tables in play at once or more. Love it, and its great to have all that data too. Saw a banker show up 14 times in a row, like the action and the energy

 

Online you can easily track 20 shoes per 40 minutes so you have plenty of shoes.

 

Action and energy are gamblers words.
If you play for fun(losing money) cool but if not be careful.

 

I was playing around with the simulation today. Optimal for my data is to look at the first 14 hands and start betting no sooner than hand 15. If you don't have 70% yet you can watch the percentage through hand 32 and start betting as late as hand 33. Once you start betting you flat bet through the end of the shoe using a -7 unit stop loss (including commission paid). If you hit -7 or greater you abandon the shoe. The stop loss did help with drawdown. I will attach the profit curve below. It does pretty well for flat betting. These are 8 deck shoes.

 

Thanks for the graph, its helpful) Since you are good with simulations, wanna try to see how deep a 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13 etc. progression goes with no limit stop loss and reset after +1 win? The most I have seen was -7,000 units down. Ill play more around with your flat betting using the -7 unit stop loss today, thanka