Baccarat What are your pre-determined bet selections and the trigger you wait for before placing your bets?

Also have you ever thought of flat betting after 2 losses in a row?

So testing flat betting...betting only 1 unit per hand on banker or player after 2 losses in a row. That is..playing entire shoe..no stop loss. This is for the 2361 live shoes.

-20,337 units lost
+21,006 units won

Total units won +669
.28 units per shoe


1 million shoes computer simulated

+9,595,877 units
-9,350,122 units

Total units won +245,755
.24 units per shoe

Seems interesting

 

I feel like I've been paying you too many compliments, but here's another one.

It's so cool that you were able to dismiss positive fluctuation on slots and hold to making better decisions on things you had more information. This is such a rare thing in casinos.

Most people overvalue hitting a jackpot and then keep playing the same machine chasing their previous glory.

Kudos!

 

There were two things at work. First I'm not a gambler, I'm too much of a skinflint and a cheapskate to put money out there on something that I'm not sure I'm going to get a return on. At that point I had been an antique dealer for 15 years and I learned never to buy anything unless I knew I was going to at least triple my money. So when I hit the $2,500 I thought, hey, $2,500 profit stick it in your jeans and leave. The last part of the equation is I have been watching my wife for years chase losses futilely on the slot machines. We got to Vegas one time and as soon as we got off the plane she started sticking money into those airport slot machines. She actually won $1,200 which was really bad because for the rest of the trip she was betting two machines at once and when the $1,200 was gone she lost another $1,000 chasing the $1,200 she had at one time. It was a horrible trip cuz she was so angry at herself like all gamblers are. Greed is a sickness and it's a terrible thing to watch when it's happening.

 

Could you exemplify?
It wasn't very clear to me.

 

Sure)

So let's say part of the shoe looks like this...

B
B
P
B
P
P
P
B
B
P
P

You wait to see either 2 bankers or 2 player show up in a row, then bet the opposite with 1 unit only 1 time then reset. For example if you see 2 players, bet banker, see 2 bankers, bet player. You don't place any bets until you see 2 bankers or players show up. Win or lose, you wait again until you have 2 more banker or players in a row show up and bet the opposite. Don't bet if it's a streak such as 4 bakers in a row, you only try one side after 2 show up (player or banker) once, then you wait for it to switch to the other side before making another bet. You are only flat betting. No progression. Just 1 unit every single time.

BB and PP shoes up more then 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 banker or player in a rows etc combined. That's what gives you the slight edge it seems. I just went to the casino tonight and recorded 48 shoes, was about 40 units profit, not much..but also no steep escalation or high risk either...

 

Thanks. Now I get it, it's playing the opposite whenever 2 P or 2 B comes.
I'm going to start looking at this method.

Grateful!

 

I played this method today. I made 3 units and stopped.
Here I was thinking about a trigger to start this method.
Find a shoe that started with 3 consecutive losses and then start following.

 

I just went to the casino last night. I attached the shoes that I played and where I stopped.

For example, if you have 100 shoes, it's unlikely you'll see 10 bankers or players every shoe. The exploit it's capitalizing on the probability that 10 or more bankers won't show up often and betting accordingly.

Look at my attachment, you can see where I placed my bets. It's a little spinoff from Fathead's idea of flat betting, made 13 units

 

No problem, glad you understand now)

 

You can modify however you like, just test it on paper first and make sure it's working..then if you have a live casino test it there before betting live money too

 

So PBB bet P and BPP bet B.

Are you subtracting banker commission? The number I am getting is a loss of -(0.28) units per shoe after commission. Even if you did not have to pay banker commission it still loses -(0.07) units per shoe (because of the player bets).

 

Where are you getting your data? I never play at a casino that has a banker commission. Im from California and EZ Baccarat is popular here, also it's all I play. I

I recommend checking out imspirit WordPress P and B Events Statistics: A Comprehensive Comparison on Google.

They have over 1 million simulated Baccarat shoes. But double check me, maybe I'm wrong?

I attached the shoes I played last night

 

Great posts and i still do not know how to like the posts(shame on me).
I will definitely check your data online with live shoes and i will come back with a report to validate the numbers.
Either way it goes i like your work!

 

In EZ Baccarat the house edge on the banker side is the 3 card 7 Banker push. The data is the same but instead of paying 5% commission on a Banker win you push on the 3 card 7 Banker. Are you pushing on these hands?

 

Being a game of 100 % of luck any decision is the correct one .


Play at your own risk.

 

Addendum: We only have a "like" button on this forum. I did not wish to suggest that I "liked" your wife's issue. You have my deepest sympathy. Only once have I had to personally cope with someone close to me having an issue with disordered gambling. Most of my friends were life-long commensurate professionals.

The fellow that had the issue was named Gary Ford (deceased), son of Phil Ford and Mimi Hines. We were best best friends and he played for me on the team. But he'd get off a 12 hour shift playing GOOD machines and then go blow all his pay on BAD machines. It confounded me.

It took almost two years to figure out what was pulling his trigger. He was a Vietnam Vet, ranger ground recon for the First of the 9th, and had been only one of nine to survive, out of a platoon of 160. The war set his "excitement threshold" very high. Surviving against all odds was the only thing that made him feel alive, so anytime he gambled he tended to play things with the potential to go broke in a single day.

Once I pointed this out to him it resonated and he curtailed his bad behaviors.

He only got another year to enjoy normal pro gambling with money in his pocket before passing. Ironically he died from an aortic aneurysm brought on by a brown recluse spider bite. To have gone through all he did and be taken out by a tiny little spider.

He is sorely missed. I will never have another friend like him.

 

It is a push, it's a dragon on 3 cards with total of 7 banker. Although panda on player side is 3 cards with total of 8 and is not a push.

 

I'm trying to develop a method for flat betting.
In this method you used ai, it had a positive variance +13.
Let's Suppose you take a negative variance!
How would your management be?
Stop Loss set by shoe?
If you reach "X" negative units, would you consider decreasing or increasing the unit?

I would be grateful for your opinion regarding this type of management.

 

It is loss on Player side and a push on Banker side on that hand. So instead of +0.95 Banker win (+1 unit minus 5% banker commission) it is +0. The Player side loses at -1 unit. You need to subtract out the Bankers that push from your Banker Player data. On average, you should have a Banker push every 45 hands or so. A shoe (including Ties) is about 80 hands. So the pushes cost you about -1.77 units per shoe.

I don't think the P 70% Bet B would work on EZ Baccarat. Every 90 hands you push at +0 for two hands while in Commission Baccarat you win +1.9 total on those two hands.

 

I will try to adjust the simulation to account for the EZ Baccarat pushes and see if it is still profitable for that version of the game. I will post the results later today.