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TurboGenius When does it lose ?

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Nov 14, 2021.

  1. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    @ LuckyDickhead, so random isn't black & white then, is it? It has shades of grey.
     
  2. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    You were talking about this ↑ already here ↓ & here ↓.

    But I really don't get your logic ..
     
  3. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Below, are two betting sequences of numbers from a 00 roulette wheel. (37 represents the 00)
    Frank hopes the following string of numbers hit in order...and his wife, Roxy hopes that the sequence that's all 1s hit. Who's betting sequence has the best chance of occurring?

    18
    10
    7
    6
    13
    28
    28
    35
    37
    12
    17
    11
    13
    37
    0
    22
    2
    35
    37
    24
    7
    37
    25
    37
    19
    1
    37
    16
    6
    24
    20
    11
    27
    7
    28
    17
    31
    27
    25
    32
    3
    8
    36
    11
    25
    13
    14
    19
    2
    10
    32
    7
    13
    35
    30
    4
    5
    0
    36
    32
    35
    30
    37
    14
    34
    7
    5
    3
    12
    4
    14
    1
    28
    14
    26
    31
    33
    16
    5
    7
    15
    37
    10
    0
    37
    25
    28
    34
    6
    22
    12
    34
    23
    23
    17
    21
    24
    6
    13
    36
    This specific sequence, above, is incredibly rare. 1/38^100. or 1.051091e-158. There was only ONE way it could happen, but it happened!!!!
    And it's just as rare as having witnessed the sequence below. Because, again, there's only ONE sequence like it that can happen over 100 spins. Every time you look at a roulette board, you're looking at a rare sequence.
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
     
  4. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Do you take 1 spin and then decide if a wheel is bias or not ?
    Asking for a friend.

    We've already covered that 100 1's isn't random.
    Why do this again ?
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
    TwoUp likes this.
  5. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    No no. I am the Dickhead .. can't take that from me.

    DICK!HD
     
  6. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Turbo,

    That's not the question. Which string has the greatest chance of hitting? It's a probability question. We're not questioning if the wheel is biased or not.
     
  7. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Because he likes to state the things that offer no advantage of winning whatsoever, stating something that sounds quasi-smart .. attempting others to focus on that.

    Can't really see the sun, if smudging the face in mud, can you?
     
    TwoUp and TurboGenius like this.

  8. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Witch - Drink & Drive!.jpg
    I thought this was the roulette section ..


    Pointless to bring a lace in the WW2 museum .. or a hi-tech startup product development drawing board.
    You might as well take it to a bunch of old hags where your question will be relevant!
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
  9. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    SirNoOne learnt this shit from his roulette computer scammer buddy.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
  10. Nimo

    Nimo Active Member

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    Dr. Obtuse

    If you bothered to read what has been posted and applied the knowledge, both streams would be extremely profitable.

    The point is that it doesn't matter what random throws at you. It's how you react to it, that is what matters.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
  11. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Look .. random.

    What's this got to do with roulette?
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
  12. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    We're talking about roulette.
     
  13. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Turbo, I asked to you write at least small sequence which is random, but you that not done , what is not random for you is clear - if are much reapeats :)...

    That you will not had troubles in creating random sequence - I will say you one - when look only to numbers - you cant say that this sequence is random, but this - not.

    That is because - you always see unicue sequence which, if is such long as 100 spins never will repeat in your life :)...
    And here no difference if sequence is 1,1,1,1,1,... or any other - all they are exactly the same random , or exactly the same - not random !!!

    If talk about weapon which generate numbers here is other talk, but talk was not about that ...
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone likes this.
  14. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    Ill take an educated guess. The max repeat of of a nr on record was 6 times in a row. So I guess everything above that they will find not random?
     

  15. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
  16. Bombus

    Bombus Well-Known Member

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    That's why I said 7 or 8. Just push the known extreme a bit further and that should end it.
     
  17. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    The trouble is you you think house edge is paid on a loss. It isn't.

    The purpose of the binom.dist calc is to understand the confidence intervals for a random outcome. You might use an approximate chi squared calculation as a WoV schooled learner, I prefer the more accurate and exact binomial test.

    It follows that you don't understand random and probability distributions if you think that.

    Frank and Roxy must be your good friends or family betting for a specific outcome that won't be witnessed before the end of the universe.

    You posted literally the only betting system guaranteed to fail in the universe, with the strongest form of guarantee that exists, the destruction of the universe will happen first.

    That's why probability exists to define the distribution of outcomes. This is why I use a binomial distribution calculation.

    Your argument that any 100 events that happened is rare is wrong. You did not have a specific defined sequence, in fact your event probability was any sequence and that has a probability of 1, or 100%.

    You said any 100 spins will do and any outcome will come up every time.

    But it's a bridge too far to equate that probably of 100% with obtaining a specific sequence. It's the kind of nonsene you indulge.

    If can write down a specific sequence of 100 spins and post it here. Then go away and record some spins for us until you get that sequence that might help. Don't come back or post here until you get a matching set of spins and we will all be quite satisfied.
     
    thereddiamanthe and TurboGenius like this.
  18. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Saint Sir Anyone makes no sense and he knows it - now won't answer my simple question.
    Like Benas - they will never answer a question that proves they are wrong of course.
    I suppose that's to be expected.
    One knows what random is because he exploits a wheel not being random - but denies
    random has limits and that random can be measured - even though he uses this measurement
    to confirm his unicorns.
    Needs thousands of spins to prove a bias but says 1 spin is enough to test a system.
    Posts 100 spins that could never happen again and thinks that is random.
    100 1's are also random - it's all a mess in their heads but they spout it out.
    Running in circles for no reason but I guess it's entertainment.
    Don't forget that they also want proof of anything working *it's always not enough
    spins* - even though those spins will never happen in that order again.
    What kind of test is that ?
    They look at something that has already happened and say "this just happened"
    and then the future is somehow unpredictable. But the past spins they are pointing
    to also means they commit the same fallacy they preach about... but then it's ok.
    They say patterns happen but you only notice one once it's happened - but if I say
    to bet on a pattern happening, or bet on a pattern not happening - I'm the fool.

    All they do with their supposed knowledge is troll and run in circles chasing their own
    tails and seem perfectly fine in doing that - what have they got to lose ?
    Then up on the pedestal saying they are working to prevent others from losing.
    So a lottery winner who just won 640 million $ should listen to them when they
    preach that the odds of winning are 1 in 150 million ? But they won...... but
    it doesn't matter - that was a past lottery so it doesn't matter. You could never win.

    People say I'm patient with these guys and I guess I am - there are things to learn
    from them, if only they stopped chasing their tails and could focus on one topic.
    But that won't happen.

    Hell, another guy here says he has only been in a casino once and would never set
    foot in one. Makes sense to me. I'll go on a forum where they discuss brain surgery
    and constantly give my 2 cents even though I would NEVER attempt what they do.

    I'm patient - I've taken it from the same people since the GG days and I'm not
    stopping. I've been called every name in the book - Oh I even destroy people's
    lives now too, let's not forget that beauty.
    It is what it is. Happy Thanksgiving Day to those who celebrate it - and much
    like @mr j I'll spend some of the day also working on roulette.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
    TwoUp, Mako and mr j like this.
  19. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I should post that video from the 50's again where they chart random outcomes
    ..... complete random.
    The count in the singles column - completely random.
    The 10's column as they add up - less random.
    The 100's column as they add up - you can set a friggin watch to it because it's so
    predictable and no longer random. So much to learn in that video but it went right over
    their heads, even though I'm sure they agree with each and every point made by
    demonstration.
    To understand this they would have to think about more than 1 spin, which they can't do.
     
    TwoUp, mr j and Gigi666 like this.
  20. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    MJ recent posts show poor understanding of random. I'm actually surprised to read what he wrote. This is due to self teaching.

    His first mistake is to say the rate of convergence to mean of sleepers is the same as any random selected number.

    His erroneously cite independent spins as his central theme where no statistics math can exist beyond this.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
    TwoUp likes this.

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