Blackjack Who knows about this dude?

American Pharaoh on top

 

Is Kaufman 'The Professor' really playing Blackjack? Or is he playing a different game?

I propose that what he is playing is not Blackjack at all, but rather he is simply betting that he will win 1 out of 8 bets in a game of 21. He uses a negative progression betting method.

Here is the odds he is facing to lose per hand:
1 - 52.51%
2 - 27.57%
3 - 14.47%
4 - 7.6%
5 - 3.99%
6 - 2.09%
7 - 1.1%
8 - 0.57%

Kudos to Kaufman for seeing the forest though the trees!

 

Kaufman is the tree. How else could anyone be stupid enough not to take splits and double downs V a dealer upcard stiff? ... let alone not even mention Surrender.

 

There is a good discussion of Al Kaufman methods here on the Wizards forums with pros and cons:
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/15825-al-the-professor-kaufman-3-questions/

 

I think everyone agrees that the Insurance on a dealers Ace is a sucker bet.
The Surrender, Double down's and Splits increase volatility but not the percentage to win each hand.

What Kaufman trades is a bit more of a house edge for a lower volatile game, and his strategy, such as standing on a 16. The hit or stand on a 16 is interesting and the question is pondered here http://blackjackinvestment.blogspot.com/2011/02/16dilemma-hit-or-stand.html You have a 62% chance of busting on a 16, and the dealer has a 26% chance of bust on a 7. The odds favor hitting but if the dealer has been busting a lot, then perhaps standing is better. What is the count? That may also tell you if the dealer is likely to bust or not. Confused yet???

 

Frankie Scobe sed...

"I once lost 22 hands in a row. That took place at Fitzgerald's in Tunica. Henry Tamburin was at the table with me."

As for losing a measly miserable 8 Blackjack hands in row, LOL

 

Kaufman is promoting a martingale variation. Double up and add 1 after every loss. So the progression is 1,3,7.15, 31, 63, etc. Martingales have been debunked by everyone.

 

Martingale debunked by everyone... yeah right. But that does not mean that somebody, somewhere, found a way to consistently win with using it... (and that ain't me)

 

I had a friend who used this betting system playing twenty-five cent craps at the Plaza/Downtown Las Vegas. I asked him how he did with it. He said "It works pretty good most of the time for grinding out a small profit....but every once and awhile I get my butt handed to me."