Baccarat Win little, lose big?

This is a good post
It’s not just the mathtopian that cannot understand , that question they ask you gets asked by many NON mathtopians both here at this very forum and in real life away from this forum.
It seems to be asked by the ill informed, the degen, the dealers or the fantasy quick get richers .
I no longer bother getting into the conversation with them over it. I’m more inclined to say something like “ oh wow I never thought of that, thanks I’m going to be so rich now.”
Lol.

 

Have you stopped to think about him ? Is he actually doing more than pattern recognition? Remember this is your ill informed personal biased observation kicking in . Not fighting words spike

Not being nasty Spike. You are claiming on this thread something yet refuse to be wised up on another thread.

The Indian gentleman may actually be playing a totally different game that has nothing to do with patterns of banker player, or trends of 1,3,2 etc. The truth of the matter is you actually have no clue. The Indian gentleman has you thinking like a casinoverse employee.

Next time you see that man , look at him as the consummate professional. He is legend. Cheers

 

Good post
Who are we to dictate to another how much a unit is in value, how many units are harvested in a session, how long a session is or is not. The various Socioeconomic status of the individual worldwide is numerous and varied. The starting bankroll, the day bankroll is not a mandatory one size fits all , the low roller may actually be a high roller within one’s own social network.
You achieve 51% and higher periodically is all that matters, hopefully the doer eventually increase one’s unit value as the bankroll increases.
I’m all for the +1 unit a session/

 

I know he bets rends because I see him doing it. I see him betting patterns. So I'm supposed to assume he's doing something else? Why? It's obvious he's betting trends and patterns. You were not even there, why do you think you know so much.

 

If you do this for a long enough time, make actual bets in actual casinos, it's the only logical conclusion that you can come to. Have a goal, make it as fast as possible, leave. If you need to gamble, sit down at a penny slot machine. But don't do it with real money, only idiots do that.

 

Because I actually do know what I’m talking about in regards to baccarat. There are a couple of posters this forum that are very knowledgeable re baccarat.

You rate yourself highly in your ability to recognise what works re roulette is that not correct?

You rate yourself highly re roulette with you recognition of posters that are doing non working methods re roulette, is that correct?

So why is it “Inconceivable” to you that someone else has the experience to be able to recognise a working method in baccarat? A game you lack an understanding for apart from a basic fundamental “ he follows a trend / pattern because I saw it”

Yet
No one that has way more knowledge than you in this subject can state otherwise. You are out of your depth here.

You are embarrassing yourself here on this topic. Your opinion is worthwhile nevertheless but you are a ploppy base player in this game of baccarat.

You are just lashing out at me , it’s ok you can’t be good at everything you think you are. have a sleeping pill and a nap.

 

I think you are spot on. I remember it taking me six months to a year of playing everyday before I could even get through an eight hour shift at VP and not feel like a truck had run over me. In the case of Video Poker it does get to be second nature after awhile. You know how seasoned piano players can sit their and play a piece from memory while chatting to a customer and not miss a note?

I got to that level at VP. I could talk and even sing songs while playing at full speed on two machines. When I could only play one machine, I often read a book in my off hand while playing.

But there's no question that fatigue plays a part. How long it took me to "get fatigued" lengthened overtime, much like a marathon runner builds up their endurance. I doubt most runners made it 26 miles on their first try.

One should never play when they reach the point where their judgment is impaired. Staying away from alcohol is also great advice.

I have an excerpt from my book which I wrote 16 years ago that you might like:
----------------------

Perception, And How You Look At It

Better keep yourself clean and bright; you are the window through which you must see the world.
~ George Bernard Shaw

“I know this guy—he’s the best gambler in the world—when he plays and keeps his head about him, he never loses. Just ask him, he’ll tell you straight—he’s never lost even once— when he was sober, that is. It’s only when he drinks that the casinos even stand a chance against him. Yea, that’s right, his only weakness is the booze, and those damned casinos know it. That’s why they have those silky sirens, which no man in his right mind can refuse, practically forcing the devil juice down your throat. When he stays sober he can beat ’em every time. They’re no fools, they know that, and that’s how they get you; they learn your weaknesses and then kick you when you’re down.”

The previous paragraph is not a fabrication constructed merely for your amusement, nor is it a funny anecdote recited merely to emphasize the topic of this chapter. It is an all too truthful and sad case of a real person that I once called friend. In his mind, as long as he didn’t drink, he never lost. He didn’t distort the facts or lie; the only thing that was terribly amiss was his perception and subsequent interpretation of the facts. If you’re smart, you may have already guessed what created this man’s delusional fantasy.

When he gambled and won…he went home a winner.

When he gambled and lost…he stayed and drank.

Without even having to distort the facts he can truthfully say, “As long as I don’t drink, I never lose!”

Does he have a sure fire system that can’t be beat? Of course not.

Does he think he has a fool-proof system that can’t
be beat? Absolutely.

What is the cause of his life altering delusion? His
perceptions.

 

What you are describing is much like driving a car on a 8 hour trip. Your conscious mind is not really paying attention but your subconscious mind is doing all the driving because of all the training you've had. Put a 16 year old who just got his driver's license behind-the-wheel he won't last an hour because he has no training he has to pay attention to everything. What I do in roulette and what Gizmo does takes a huge amount of attention, it's unrelenting or you will miss something. There is so much going on that missing an opportunity is easy to do. So 30 minutes online because I only have 20 seconds in between bets. In a brick-and-mortar casino I've got about 2 minutes so I can last 45 minutes to an hour. I believe that's the reason why most classrooms are scheduled at 45 minutes or 50 minutes, it's very hard for most people to pay attention for longer than that. Somebody will say, but I can watch a movie for two and a half hours. You are paying attention though, if you watch your mind during that period it's all over the place.

 

I think I can explain it now that I understand where you are coming from.

We'll be getting deep into PRO-gambler math nerd mindset, and may god have mercy on your soul.

Let's start by me saying, now that I understand your goal, I think it's a perfectly reasonable thing for you to do, not forgetting how long it took you to get it through my thick skull.

The main issue, as I see it, is the differential; not in the ends, in the means. You aren’t truly being judged for what you are doing. You are being judged and screamed at for the perceived reason behind why they think you are doing it.

This is actually more common than you might imagine. Typically, we judge others by their actions, and ourselves by our motives. Part of the reason for this is, it’s often impossible to know other people’s motives. When we try, what we end up with is a confabulation of why WE would have done what the other person did, and assume that’s THEIR motive as well.

Recent scientific literature I read on consciousness seems to indicate that even with concerted introspection we rarely know our own motives for doing things. It’s pure hubris to think we can know the mind of another...doesn’t stop us from trying.

When you tell a math guy that you leave the casino after wining a unit, little chunks of gray matter shoot out their ears like rats deserting a sinking ship. (BTW: I found mine behind the couch)

Why? Because, they aren’t really trying to figure out why you are doing what you’re doing. They are looking at it through their own lens and sifting through the information from a POV of why they would ever do it. The answer they come up with is incomprehensible to them and would require insanity or brain damage to make sense (to them). They aren’t judging you for YOUR motives, or even actions. They are judging you based on what THEIR-MOTIVES would have to be to do what you do.

I can’t speak for ALL math guys, but I can tell you that all the pros I partnered with think in the following way:

When we found something we could make money on, we reduced it to an hourly earn. As example when I started playing Rapid 5-Ways I calculated the hourly as $91.00 an hour. Since the play was only playing mostly for high flushes or full houses, getting in the hours was tough. There was a time when you could drive down the strip at midnight and check all the banks and get GOOD plays on half of them. An average night might be two hours of actual play-time + travel.

A year into doing this and I sat down and went over all my records and discovered much to my surprise that instead of $91.00 and hour I had made $92.34. Well nobody’s perfect.

Where this is relevant to our discussion is that during that year I stressed quite a bit about my monthly bills and how much I was making, based on the play-time I was getting. In math circles we call this “theoretical money”. In the first two months of playing 5-Ways I was only getting in an hour or less a day. Even playing 7 days a week, that wasn’t going to cover my nut, as at this time I was taking care of my sick mother.

I needed to play more. I started doing the rounds four times a day, which required an odd sleep schedule, but it worked. I got in a lot more plays and uped my hours to 2-3 a day.

What I want you to focus on in those last few paragraphs is NOT my conclusions. It’s the process by which I came to them. The Additional information you’ll need to judge me is that I ran super good in my first two months of playing 5-ways, and still worried that I wasn’t getting in enough hours. The money in my bank and the results I had on the play were off my radar, and played no part whatsoever in my decisions.

I calculated that playing Rapid-5-Ways was worth $91 an hour. Therefore, if I was getting in only 30 min of play a day, I was only making $45.50 a day. (THAT’S NOT ENOUGH) I had a day where I hit 2 Royals on the 5-Ways over $3,000 and still felt dejected and ashamed, because I hadn’t gotten in the required hours for the day. I was up $6,700 for the day, but I felt as though I had only made $91, since I only played an hour. I was oblivious to the actual amount of profit, as my mind had no concept for daily wins or losses. It only had the concept of HOURLY-EARN X HOURS PLAYED. It’s worth nothing that neither of those Royals were what I was playing for. I was trying to hit a high FLUSH and when I hit the Royal Flush, I calmly moved over and continued playing until the flush was down. The RF was only collateral damage.

In the case of 5-Ways it was really hard to get in the hours. Driving all over hell’s half acre at off-hours most people would be sleeping. The thought of walking into a casino and finding a good play, and then leaving as a result of making money early on, is inconceivable to someone that never paid attention to or even thought about their results.

I once spent 4-months calculating the return and creating a strategy for what is now known as NSUD. I was the first to know the game. I played a promo at the RIO where they gave 2x on deuces. If you asked me how I did I could not tell you. Wasn’t relevant. I calculated the game, created an optimal strategy and played as many hours as I could, until they canceled the promo.

Now, I want you to put yourself into the mind-set of someone that spent 4-months of math work into defining a play with a $91 an hour earn, but can only get out 30-min of playtime a day, and is very worried about their rent and paying for medical care for their ailing mother. Someone tells you they have “a play” but they choose to leave the play, after a seemingly paltry amount of time and being up a certain trivially amount...which is not a salient reason to leave.

All they can think is, if you’ve found a positive expectation, why wouldn’t you want more hours and more income.

Winning or losing is not a factor in the minds of math people. By definition winning or losing is in the past. Math people concern themselves only with the future, and choosing the best path to it. Imagine you have the choice of taking a cobble-stone path on an ocean cliff, or a four-lane paved highway to reach a destination. In the event of blowing a tire on the highway, would you think to yourself, “I should have taken that stone road instead?”

It’s not about what has happened, it’s about what should happen...with the caveat that what should happen doesn’t always come true, since should is not the same as “must.” Mathy people assuage guilt by knowing they made the best choice at the time. Math people stress about their math, and if they are making good decisions. They do not worry about how those decisions turn out, beyond checking their math.

Us math guys live for the undiscovered country, and can’t be bothered with the well trodden paths.

Second star to the right and straight on till morning. No wait, I’ve just heard that the new thinking is third star to the right and straight on ‘till evening…

Wherever it leads, we can at least know, we went with the best information available at the time.

 

I am Frank Kneeland and I support this message...

 

So long story short, they don't like making one unit and leaving because it's something they themselves would not do. They really have no valid reason for being against it.

 

That's a horribly distorted and truncated explanation that belies all the reasons that lead up to the conclusion, including the life experience, and the emotional impetus...but...that having been said, "Yes. You are correct."

I'm simply going to have to mostly agree with you.

It's a fair cup.

---------------

P.S. They have reasons which are valid to them. The error, as I see it, is that we don't perceive other people's reasons as valid. Don't do to them what they are doing to you. All feelings are "valid" and getting into a discussion about whether or not feelings are valid & warranted, is pointless. It's a rabbit hole with no tea party in sight. Just rephrase it ever so slightly, and omit confrontational words like "valid", and you'll get my 100% confirmation and support. (for what little it's worth)

Personally, I think it is truly wonderful that we've been able to get past our conclusions and have a discussion long enough to give both of us a far better comprehension of what lead to our decisions & our beliefs. Understanding is the only true cure to conflict, but so few put in the due diligence.

It's so rare, it almost makes me cry.

 

P.P.S. I've just heard that it's now 4th.326 Star to the right and straight on 'till twilight...

 

The math is sound, but my intuition is lacking.

 

Math people have been oddballs throughout history. Look what Isaac Newton had to put up with from his competitors. They told baseless filthy lies about him to try and discredit him. They tried to steal his best work and claim it was their own. Some even published his work verbatim and signed their name to it. All because they were so insanely jealous that he had done something they were incapable of. That feels like some of the flak I've gotten from math people over the years, they just can't stand that I might have done something they can't do. So they will tell me over and over that I'm not really doing it. Even though I do it everyday. It works because I'm dealing with random outcomes and the roulette wheel has no memory and resets itself after every spin. What math people tell me is the reason roulette cannot be beaten is actually the reason that it can be beaten. Ironic, that..

 

Just try to remember that their life experience is completely different than yours. They are basing their assumptions on the best information they possess. While I think rudeness is generally unacceptable and ineffective I can certainly understand why you might have gotten flack. What you're saying basically goes against everything they know and the brick upon which they have built their house.

Just be sensitive to how confrontational that is to a math person. Just the comment "math doesn't always work" is sort of like a direct insult to them. It's just like if they said, "there is no intuition" to you. Kapish?

P.S. When they went into Newton's "personal" files they found out he was into Nun-Torture-Porn.

 

Yes, I'm beginning to get it. "mathNazi" is sort of too kind for those that hanging is too good for. I like mathZombie because of the line in that song by Dolores O'riordan; "What's in your head zombie?" This started 17 years ago. "It's the same old theme, since 1916." The mathAssHoles started right off the bat attempting gaslighting. They made up lies and then said that these claims where what I was doing. They never relented. It's a war and I like it. I fully intend on winning it too. Now you know what a direct insult to them looks like. Once Reading Randomness is validated they will write new math books. That will be the time to play nice.

 

Psst...Isaac Newton was one of us. He was a math nerd, like most APs. The people that ridiculed him were the math illiterate.
When someone says that they're not one of the mathboys, they're essential bragging that they're not well educated when it comes to math. And if that's the case, wouldn't we be wise to ignore most of what they write? When did it become fashionable to brag about being ignorant? I wonder, outside of the rap culture, when will people start bragging about being illiterate?

A little extra education here and there is a good thing. Try learning a little basic probability. I promise, it won't hurt you.

 

The goal isn't rational in any mathematical or actual gambling sense. Leaving when the goal is attained, however, could be considered rational.

Personally, and pardon my woke-ness, one could set a goal of leaving when the cocktail waitress with the biggest chest walks by. The goal itself isn't mathematically or gambling-wise rational in any sense. But leaving upon sighting the goal, well, maybe that's a rational move. Anything following it might disappoint.

 

Actually most of the ridicule came from his peers in the math profession who were rapidly jealous of him because they could not do what he did. That's why they told evil stories about him to diminish his rank. Competition among math people in those days was fierce because if you made a big discovery you would be world-famous and set for life. Some of his peers tried to steal his work claiming it was their own.

T

Why, so I can beat roulette? I'm already doing that, I get a probability lesson every time I play and that's everyday. My play is probability in action, you could learn from me. LOL I use actual probability often. For instance if I see a certain sequence I will often look at the past results and see what the outcome was for that sequence and if it went a certain way every time I would say to myself what's the probability that's going to deviate on this next spin. Sometimes it does, but more often than not the outcome is the same as the other times because it's a trend. It's just like betting on any trend, you know it's going to end but will it end just when you happen to bet on it. You have to know when to bet and you'll learn that by looking at previous results. Takes lots and lots of time to learn so my advice to you is don't bother.