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Baccarat Win little, lose big?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by zzzgam, Dec 18, 2021.

  1. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    It's as rational as every other goal you set in your life so it runs smoothly. Your goal is to drive to the grocery store, do your shopping, check out, and drive home and put the groceries away. You don't finish shopping and then drive around aimlessly for 3 hours, that would make no sense. If you have the edge over the casino, you set a goal, make the goal, and leave. Anything else is irrational just like driving around for 3 hours in your car with nowhere to go and the ice cream melting in the back is irrational.
     
  2. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I'm not disagreeing with you...but you have to be a wee tad more sensitive to what drives people to rely on math almost exclusively.

    They want certainty, and to make sense of a chaotic universe. They may not have other guiding factors, like parents they could trust, who's advice always panned out. They may be disenfranchised from any religious teachings to guide them. They may have studied psychology, and how human perception is not so much flawed, as it is utterly illusory. They may simply want life (what little we have of it) to make sense.

    New age Frequentintists, actually believe that nothing is truly random, and even random things have patterns, which may or may not be predictable.

    People that are really good at math, tend to be bad at almost everything else...because it is the one and only light at the end of their dark tunnel.

    Can we get a little compassion here, and stop tossing poop. You used the term "gaslighting" which implies the person telling you something is attempting manipulation and knows they are wrong.

    In my opinion, that's just unacceptable when talking about "mathAssHoles". You really think they think they are wrong? If not, they're not gaslighting...just saying.

    Give me this one Giz.
     
  3. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    It is rational to set goals, especially if they are attainable. Now that Spike spent so much time explaining his goals to me, I no longer see them as anymore or less valid than mine of starting play at 4PM and leaving the casino when disco music played.

    Would I have ever set a win or loss limit? No. But I now understand that's it's not really any different from saying you'll play until you get 10,000 points.

    P.S. It's Awaken-ness--shister-sire-sauce... Get your dam English right:)
     
  4. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Everybody in the casino has a goal whether they realize it or not. It could be leaving after you lose a certain amount of money, or leaving after you eat dinner, or leaving at a specific time. Nobody sets win goals because almost nobody wins on any kind of a regular dependable basis. So it's ingrained that you just play and play if you're winning and win as much as you possibly can because it so seldom happens. I win every time I play so it's only logical to have a goal. Some math person on another forum actually told me that I do not have a winning method because I only try and make one unit. I did not ask him what he meant because I don't like talking to crazy people. They'll just make you crazy.
     
  5. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Oddly, I was just reading about the Kuuk Thaayorre, an aboriginal tribe that could navigate as though they had a compass because their language lacked the concept of left and right. Sometimes, omission is an asset...
     
  6. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    And so they have justification and license to strike out at anyone that undermines their stability?

    You almost have it now Frank. They are attempting manipulation and know that they are right. Only they have no idea that a greater truth exists making their judgment and manipulation only subjective at best. Here is the proof. They can go through the Reading Randomness thread, that is at best just the basics, and then test to see if they can be scientific without manipulating the data and suffering from the delusions of confirmation bias. And this is primarily important to make note of. Others will work on it and the masses of these others will invalidate their manipulative, subjective, and biased research principles. In other words it's very dangerous for a math oriented frequentist to expose themselves to actual research and validation because the results will destroy their foundational beliefs. So standing on the dock and telling sailors about to sail away in three small ships that they will sail off the edge of the world only means that these casting warnings are just people crying out for existence and safe beliefs. Screw them. Life is not fair, safe, or a platform to run a control freak scam. We are talking about gamblers, not saintly keepers of the flame. Let's at least come back down to earth and agree to disagree.
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2021
  7. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Every time I read AP in a post I can't help but start laughing.
     

  8. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    A better laugh from the "B A" .
     
  9. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Why, have you decided Advantage Players don't exist so you pretend they don't?
     
  10. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    Win little, lose big? That is Martingale.
     
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  11. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

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    Exactly. Martingale drives many to bankruptcy.
     
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  12. porky

    porky Active Member

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    The martingale gets a bad rap because of a players inability to use it properly. At some point no matter what your money management you have to recoup no matter what you use. So it comes down to your risk.. A mini martingale 1 2 4. People make the false statement that you risk 7 to win 1. Not entirely correct. You risk 1 to win 1.. You then risk 2 not to just win 1 but to also recoup your loss.... If you lose again the 4 bet is not to just win 1 but again to recoup.

    At some point is you lose some bets you have to increase your bet.... It does not have to be in order 1 2 4. You could flat bet 1 or no bet till you see the a good 2 unit bet...... It technicaly could be considered a marty even if you don't go back to back decisions. Same as a parlay does not have to be back to back but on good plays.

    A player once did a long winded post on how the parlay was useless because of how hard it is to win 2 in a row. My take is if he was doing what he stated playing signature plays why isn't he waiting and the betting more the next time it comes around. Then a while later a post came on how great the parlay is..... Same with a martingale you can stop at 2 even and go no higher.

    If your winning every other bet you could be at 0 or up 1 every other bet.

    But remember the Jimske rule control your liar....losses in row..... that should always be in your head....
     
  13. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I think you missed the part where I said that lashing out and insulting people is not acceptable, and worse, it doesn't work.
    ------------------------------

    BTW: I have only studied modern frequentism in passing. I'm more of a classic probability guy.

    What I'm NOT, is going to sit here and tell you I am sure I'm right about everything, and everyone that disagrees with me is wrong. I mean that's just bad science.

    I would be willing to try Spike's system some day. The problem is it would be time consuming and from our nice chat I'm 99% sure I don't have the mental tools to even attempt it, let alone succeed. I spent too much of my life deliberately ignoring patterns.

    Hell, when I played Video Poker for a living I never even looked to see what cards came in after I held them. Playing two machines, I simply looked at the deal, held my cards, and then switched to looking at the other machine while my unattended hand hit deal and then max credit on the previous machine. I can't even count the times someone asked me, "how'd you get all those credits?" and I replied, "I have no idea!"

    They probably thought I was lying, of course I wasn't. I really didn't know. Moreover, I didn't care. I was only concerned with holding the correct cards. Whatever happens after the hold on the draw is beyond my control and therefore irrelevant.
     
  14. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Curious, Spike seems to think that you think there are no AP's? Is that correct?

    It's true there aren't very many. But they do exist. Back in the day I tried to count the AP's in just my branch of gambling and came up with a number around 40-60 including wives and employees. (THIS IS POST BIG TEAM ERA)

    Today, there might be a few less than that in Vegas.

    So 30 people out of a city of 1.4 million isn't a lot...but they do exist.

    If you come to Vegas I can introduce you to some if you like, just so you can see for yourself.
     

  15. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Ha! There's more than a few APs. They exist in just about every game. Including bac!
     
  16. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    People will say nobody can beat bac, yet every time there is a baccarat tournament in Las Vegas you have the same people entering and winning. So of course there are AP's in baccarat.
     
  17. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    When you factor in the difficulty, training, practice, and doggedness required to be a true AP, I'm still not clear that you couldn't have made more money doing almost anything else. This is a source of much chagrin to me. While I made a good living for 30+ years playing Progressive VP, I'm 99% sure I could have made a great living doing something else with the same or less effort.

    What are your thoughts on this?
     
  18. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Well that has never stopped them. They took first blood. Perhaps you can convince them to start a session of Kumbaya and how happy it would be to get together. People might not want to be herded like cattle to a happy place.
     
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  19. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Frank, you are a frequentist.

     
  20. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Well since ya'll insist.....

    Once again I will state that the game of Bac is 50 50 excluding the ties. Different math people have said over the years they ran the numbers and with an eight deck game over x amount of hands Banker had NO advantage. That kinda kicks the slight advantage in the nuts I would say.
    Soooo the math people can't even agree on it.

    Just because someone wins doing any thing does not in any way prove an advantage. They will be just as many or more doing the same thing and losing.
    I think the systyem was million dollar bac if I remember correctly I'm not looking it up.
    The system simply waited till the end of the shoe and if one side was up a certain number at hands whatever it was, You would bet the opposite side.

    Guess what on live shoes won 50 percent of the time and lost 50 percent of the time.

    So what does that mean? There had to be people out there winning with it. And the other half losing while another group breaking even.

    With cards the only way you could achieve an advantage is IF IF IF you could control the order they come out. The Trans lol.....
     

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