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Baccarat Win little, lose big?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by zzzgam, Dec 18, 2021.

  1. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    It does if they can repeatedly do it again and again and again with reliable results. For years. If they can do that then of course they have the advantage.
     
  2. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    The probability that I am a frequentist, while unlikely, is non-zero.
     
  3. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Frank I want to have a private conversation with you but I don't know how to do it. Do you? If so could you start a conversation with me. Thanks.
     
  4. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I think you already know I'm not against you. I would like to clue you in on the alternative view-point.

    To scientists and mathematicians no amount of success is considered proof of concept without direct data proving correlation and causation. Essentially, you can right your entire life, and still not be considered "right" unless you can provide a testable and repeatable theory for why you were right. In science, it's not enough to have positive results, you have to be able to prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that those results were NOT-THE-RESULT-OF-RANDOM-CHANCE.

    Since your method involves an intuitive approach to predicting random events, random chance can never be ruled out.

    You may have stumbled upon one of those things that science can't prove due to the rules it follows.

    I don't question that you have done well playing Roulette. If you asked me to help you prove this to the intelligentsia, I would have no idea where to even begin.

    The gold standard in science is falsifiability. If something can't be proven false, it can never be called true.

    The issue is not that you aren't right, it's that you're not even wrong.

    If I say there are no black swans, you can prove me wrong by presenting a black swan. Therefore, it's fine for a scientist to say there are no black swans. This paradigm is known as Russell's Tea Pot...
     
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2021
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  5. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Of course Sir...and Merry Christmas.

    I am off to work actually. So I may not reply again today... Really appreciate you cluing me in on the other side of the coin. (I never bothered to flip)

    ~FK
     
  6. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Not to be trite but in my world the only authority I have to prove it to is the casino and I do that every time I play. What science thinks about it is irrelevant.
     
  7. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Really?
    Define me what a 'random event' really is, thanks.

    Are you able to define which anti SARS-Cov2 vaccine is REALLY PROVED BEYOND ANY SHADOW OF DOUBT better than others?

    as.
     

  8. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Then you are not old fashioned with regards to basic probability.
     
  9. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Oh I know that. We had been talking about why so many mathy people had given you grief and I was trying to tell you their POV. Your position is "hay I've been doing this and it works". Their POV is that proves nothing.

    I've actually written several articles in the past on how one should never pay attention to their results.

    I can't go back in time and unpublish those articles, but I think moving forward I'm going to add the more intuitive perspective and soften my stance to a more "there's a time and a place for everything" position. This is in large part due to my chats on this forum.

    So thanks ALL...
     
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  10. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    It's interesting you asked that question. I just wrote a slightly funny article about the time I got a caller on my radio show "Gambling With an Edge" that asked about the randomness of machines in Nevada. I'll post an excerpt at the end of this reply.

    The short answer is there are multiple definitions, and the word can mean different things to different people. The functional description as it pertains to gambling is: Random = any series of independent events involving equiprobable potential outcomes. The scientific definition mandates that anything with the "random" label must be unpredictable, and have no discernible pattern.

    This definition actually caused some hilarity when I first started chatting with Giz and Spike, as they were essentially using the word differently. By my old logic you could NEVER predict a random event, because if you could, it would not be random. We have since resolved this misunderstanding.

    HERE'S THE EXCERPT:

    The Somewhat Random Definition of Random
    “Oh, many a shaft at random sent—Finds mark the archer little meant! And many a word at random spoken—May soothe, or wound, a heart that's broken!”
    ― Sir Walter Scott, Lord of the Isles


    We are beginning our journey into madness with the word “random”. It was the word that started my decent down the rabbit hole of understanding how words shape our thoughts, our personalities, and our lives.

    When I had my radio show, “Gambling with an Edge” we used to take call-ins from listeners. One night I had a caller that asked a seemingly innocuous simple question. Nothing would ever be the same for me again.

    His question was, “So, I was wondering? I know video poker machines in Nevada are supposed to be completely random. When I play Full Pay Deuces Wild at the Gold Coast—even if I play the same exact machine—I seem to get different results every day. Sometimes I win big. Other times I lose. Sometimes I break even. Now, how can you call that ‘random’?”

    I had just been given a perfect flawless dictionary definition of randomness and the question on deck was, “how is that random?” Huh? …

    After a few seconds of dead air and total silence, my co-host Bob Dancer said, “Frank are you speechless?” I said, “Yes!” He joked to the caller how much he appreciated the gift of my silence as he could never get me to shut up.

    After I had regained a modicum of composure, I decided to answer the question with a question. I asked the caller what his definition of “random” was. The answer I received in reply bore no resemblance whatsoever to the word I knew and loved…and down the rabbit hole I went with no tea party in sight.

    The machines were random; they simply weren’t the definition of random with which our caller had grown up and incorporated into his reality. To him, “random” meant consistent and predictable. He felt that if a slot machine was supposed to return 99% and it was truly random it should return exactly 99%. Any attempt to disabuse him of this notion proved pointless. It soon became clear in our discussion that he lacked the language. Moreover, he lacked the concepts language could have provided him to even contemplate this topic. He was trying to assemble a puzzle without all the pieces.

    Bob and I eventually tried the old coin-flip example, and the call ended when the caller very angrily said, “But if you flip a coin! and it doesn’t! come up heads! half the time!! and tails half the time!!! then it’s NOT random dammit!!!!”.

    He had learned an incorrect definition for the word “random” at a young age. His brain was incapable of grasping the true concept. To him “random” meant something different, and there was no word in our language or his head for the correct definition. He lacked the words, he lacked the concept, and he lacked a clear path to lean it.

    I decided to spend a couple of weeks researching if any of our listeners had similar variations in their definition of other words just in case it might be impeding their ability to understand the information we were presenting on air. Nothing could have prepared me for what I learned. It wasn’t a few words; it was almost all of them, and the differences were non-trivial.

    “I returned and saw under the sun that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favor to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.”
    ~ Ecclesiastes 9:11
     
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  11. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I can't believe you got my joke. Dennis Miller wouldn't have gotten that joke.
     
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  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I love listening to him. I got started with William F Buckley. That guy tops them all. He's the captain of wordsmiths. Miller is funny too. In fact you are articulate.
     
  13. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    When he had his actual Late Night talk show, my friends and I would always watch it together every night.

    One night Jofa, said he didn't get all the reference jokes. Stacy said, "well I got most of them, about 80%". Then Johnny and I chimed in and we suddenly realized we were all grading our own intelligence by the percentage of Dennis Miller Jokes we understood.

    I got to meet Mr. Miller at the MGM when he had his show there and told him this story. He laughed so hard I thought he was having a heart attack.

    Good times.
     
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  14. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I loved his rants. Seems like I might have written one of them. God it's been so long. I know I submitted material to his agent but I can't remember if they bought it. It's like that in show biz you do so many things you can't even remember what they were.
     

  15. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    This would normally be true. The only reason that's not true for roulette is there are so few outcomes. If roulette had 75 outcomes there's no way I could do what I do. But with 37 or 38 outcomes there's only so many ways it can go.
     
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  16. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    As we have pointed out to you this statement is fully true. In randomness there is no discernible pattern. There is nothing there that points to what happens next. But those trends and patterns are not a process of cause and effect. They are in the connectivity made possible in the mind as a working construct of the imagination. There's this widely held belief that what statisticians refer to as apophenia, as patternicity, or a “type I error,” all amounts to the inclusion in an acceptable pejorative at best. But what we pointed out to you is that these figure formations of the imagination have the capacity to go in and out of being effective at times. It's a parallel track to the existing data feed. You have the real results and you have the patternicity information that track along side of it. There are no imagination police. You can use any construct you like to see when a phase or condition is working the way that you want it to. So I beat the casino because if I stay small and close to the simple wave structures I always get a wave worth exploiting. This happens all day long without prediction or magic beans.
     
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  17. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I play that game too. I figure that I'm about 50% Dennis Miller and 40% Don Rickles. Now that guy was funny. Famous people would stand in line to be ridiculed by him on live television. Today's safe space "snowflakes" would flop over and sizzle and squirm like a worm on a 500 degree fry pan if they got the treatment from him. And he does not let up once he has you in his cross-hairs. Those were the days.
     
  18. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I remembered. It was bugging me. I sold him a rant on Vegas, no idea if he used it.

    It opened with:

    In the old days you had to go to Las Vegas, but at the rate it's currently expanding you can just stay where you are and it will come to you.

    I think the funniest part was about Killer Bees. I said, "You've heard of killer bees? Yeah, everywhere else they've shown up it was a major ecological disaster and people died. They made it to Vegas and all they got was two small articles on page two and six of our local news papers...and then silence. And you know what I saw in the health food store four months later? Killer Bee Honey. Yeah, that's right, not even the bees got out with what they came here with. Not sure where they went, but since they are all female drones, I'm guessing strip club.
     
  19. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Mr. Rickles. I worked with him at the Riviera. What a stand up guy. Every-time I went to his dressing room, he'd pause and stop whatever he was doing and go into full on "host mode": can I get you a drink? I have snacks on the table, etc... And he always tipped. The only other cleb I ever worked with like that was Andrew Dice Clay. Oh and Rodney Dangerfield. Though he offered MORE than drinks, though straws were still involved.

    WORST cleb ever was Barry Manilow. What a complete prick. Fired people if they spoke to him or made eye contact. Actually in his contract at the Hilton that he could do that.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2021
  20. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    People who do that usually have a huge self confidence problem. They think very little of themselves and don't really believe they deserve all the celebrity. You would think they would be meek and mild, but it usually manifests itself as then being huge pricks because they have no idea of how they should be acting and being a jerk is really easy, way easier than being nice.
     
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