Baccarat Playing (and Winning) Baccarat Over The Long Term

Odds , commission, human weaknesses etc etc.

It really is a moot point.

Whatever you do
However you select

All I know is when you flat bet and your strike rate is between 52% and 56% , one tends to not care about odds or commission .

The long run
Hit and run
Etc

His destiny
My destiny
Destiny’s child

If you see 500 bank today
And I only see 375 bank today
Who is right?

It’s a moot point.
Cheers

 

My advice, work your bankroll up, get to a personally acceptable unit size, get your strike rate above 52% , make the minimum number of bets , the strike rate will take care of the rest. Go home.


Cheers

 

Just look at the majority of people going to the casino. They played at Baccarat with just 1+ % House Edge. Some lost everything . Some in gambling debt. Some commit suicide. There is nothing moot about what is obvious. Winning unrealistically and the Human Factor. People just don't know how to adjust to the correct mindset. When you buy in for $1000, you should be looking at $150. 99% of people don't do that. People know about the odds and Math side of things but they disregarded it. It is this very reason that people lose. Couple with Human Factor the losses are even greater.
Getting to 52% win rate is easier to said than done. Base on Luck?

 

Bankroll $ 1ooo. win goal 20 % attainable. win goal 10 % intelligent.

 

I'm reading this thread and I'm going to respond but I don't know why I bother. Pretty academic and kind of boring. A bet selection, simple or complicated, that can be defined and replicated is a fixed placement and one that has a specific advantage or disadvantage that can be calculated. If you don't know what that EV is or at least the standard deviation then you just guessing.

I've said for a long time that for me Baccarat is a betting and guessing game with MM based on what I consider to be statistical limitations. That means I guess.

I have a higher-than-expected strike rate. That means I'm either lucky or skillful. I will accept either.

 

RR stop point 3 / 7

Win 3 net wins at attack value or lose 7 net losses at attack value for each session played.

Win 4.66 sessions won at +3, each session, to each lost session of -7, results equals 2 to 1 over all wins to loss ratio in an unfair coin flip game.

 

You could be skillful at times when you are lucky.

 

So ?
You and I need the people you speak about. Not my problem they can’t, won’t, refuse to upskill themselves, I don’t care , they continue to do as you do or say, I don’t care. You want to smoke cigarettes, you know it’s bad for you, but you enjoy it anyway, I don’t care.

You , generic you , can run around and be the casino fairy godmother they won’t listen to you , they don’t want to , they don’t want to take any advice, they like you only hear what they want. They just want to have fun, the results don’t matter, they just want to bet on anything, everything for whatever fleeting whim that crosses they limited attention span. Then do it again with an entirely different whimsical superstition never stopping to wonder why. And why should they ?

I don’t care, if those that ask for help and do what is required will always receive assistance from any number of posters this forum.

Those that bitch and whine and naysayer to EVERYTHING —- I don’t care.

I am not responsible for the people you talk about, they are not communicating here this forum, I take your representation of the collective dross with a pinch of salt. Your need to associate with the gambling Equivalent of femme fatales is commendable , but means nothing to me.

Perhaps instead of posting about them maybe you should do something worthwhile and actually go help them , the ones you deal with in the casino. They don’t vist this forum, perhaps you could boost traffic here by directing all those unfortunate people you speak for to read your posts here.
Maybe you could run for parliamentary position to help the 99% , but I suspect you know that a waste of time, like a one trick pony, or the fishwife that just nags for the sake of nagging.

Just for the record

I don’t care. They refused help, they don’t want to know, they do as they do. No disrespect intended to you craps , good post.
Cheers.

 

When people are at the casino, judgement becomes blurry especially doing the same thing had brought success before.
Just look at Jae's OG. I don't care whether it is OG or something else. What I know from the casino side is you are down 300-500 units of $100 playing on Bank only. At the beginning you seem to be grinding with a conservative flat betting style couple with a positive D' Alembert which is up 1 unit after win. Seems harmless both ways. Now that the units is at -500 the bets has become thousands per hand every hand on B. At this juncture, where is the OG in the eyes of the casino? You will looked like somebody forcing the B to come with thousands per hand. The only way is for clusters of B to occur other wise you looked like a desperate gambler.
The point is not to weigh in on Jae's OG. The point is when bets go higher and higher all methods don't looked like a plan anymore. It's hard core gambling. Does the Gods of Baccarat care about you using OG and now after losing to this point you should be able to make a comeback?

 

Actually when the bets do get higher that’s exactly WHEN the plan, discipline, structure, m m , the belief in what you are doing really kicks in and keeps you on course. Who gives a flying fuk what the casino thinks of you , what a worthless statement you made. If those that worry about what some dealer/pit boss/ trainee thinks then your casino deserves their money.

Readers don’t be brainwashed by the post above this. The reason the poster made that statement is he gets tapped out to go on a break and has no true skin in that game he describes .
What rot , bringing religious dogma to the trough, it has no bearing win lose or draw. One fails because of unrealistic expectations, inconsistent m m , incorrect bankroll, incorrect betting unit, flawed bet selection criteria, lack of discipline, fatigue, substance abuse while playing, table max limits. Groundhog Day

lol

People bet various bet unit size $100 000 per hand may seem excessive to someone that has a $5 mentality. You the readers decide what units you use, you go bust , wear your lumps, you recover good for you, never listen to the chump dealer. At the table you have every right to ask the supervisor/pit boss to ask the dealer to shut its mouth and only call the cards it’s dealing.

Cheers. Lol

 

If you are really a very experienced player, you would have caught what those statements are. You are a $100 unit player and you are looking for 21 units. Now you are at a point where you are betting over 21 units a hand just because you are down. The OG part at this point is gone. You looked exactly like a desperate gambler betting few thousands on B every hand. Imagine you playing Baccarat with no losses or wins. Would you bet like this.? Just because you are down few hundred units, you AS a $100 player betting in the thousands. Tell me that is proper. We are not talking about results or anything. The point I am making is progressions will come to a point where it does not mean anything anymore except in the mind of the user following through but the actions he is taking at that time is like a compulsive Bettor betting e every hand in an uncomfortable level and zone.

 

Funny thread, I should visit more often

See what happens when gr8 resurrects one of his old GG posts, or maybe he didn't, but it sure seemed like another of his sermons, you gotta feel for the guy, he's trying to break even before the eventful days comes.

Nar, makes no difference, when you venture back to the table, later on the day, or a few days later, you are still in recoup mode, doesn't matter your mindset, start afresh? You still have to recoup.

Losing is not okay, never is, sometimes it can't be avoided.

Hahaha

No chance in hell, he's never did so in all his waffling at GG, I don't think he's going to break his life-time habit now.

Suffice to say, he did share a few dinosaur titbits, if the Banker doubled last time, bet the double Bank, ditto Player, if either side is producing singles, bet the chop, if B or P is stopping at 4 in the shoe, don't bet 5th. Can't make head nor tails of shoe, sit on hands, think you get the gist of it. Maybe after 15 years gr8 expects newbies to fawn over his musing like some did over at GG, that rodeo left town a long time ago, perhaps deep down inside Walter Mitty" realises his time of spinning yarns is well past it's due date, because I noticed he didn't end his post in this thread with "Your Friend"

Nice to see some still have long memories.

I buyin for 60 units, my goal target is generally 100%, sometimes I have to buyin for a further 60u, then my goal target becomes say 60~80% of my 120u buyin. Sometimes it doesn't work at all and I aim to recoup the loss over the next 3 or 4 visits

 

Oh that’s a Marty for yar tiger, if a 5th stage is needed at a $100 unit that’s $1600 , best be hopeful your not betting bank ,oh that horrible commish ,oh look you won ,oh look you didn’t get your full unit return on bank win, oh that’s a nice $20 win soldier. Good thing you not a $25 unit man , or are you?

Are you sure the fears you write about seeing day in and day out in the 99% of people that go to Your place of work are really your fears? You choking at putting that infallible Marty 5th stage to work? How else do I interpreted the out lay over 21 units in an effort to achieve 20 units profits? You gagging on 31 units to get 1 unit. Give it up son

As I have stated before in so many Groundhog Day posts to you , if your plan is X amount per day then you make sure you execute the plan, have the right unit, right bankroll , right amount of intestinal fortitude adequate selection criteria and some god dam backbone.OR DONT PLAY.
This is last post on the subject to you , I don’t flog dead horse. Well at least until I get bored , yawn.
By all means post a reply to make sure you get an irrelevant last word in.
Cheers

 

This post alone defines your Baccarat abilities. Yo, Sir. In gambling, we count everything by units. My bankroll is 31 units and not some 2000 units. I take the loss sometimes and grind it back in a few trips. That is called conservative gambling to win a little. Using 2000 units wagering in the hundred of units a hand is clearly hard gambling.

 

If you’re successful you can call it anything you want. At $5,$25 lesscommish 31units is tiddlywinks.
Tiddlywinks is also the attitude. Cheers

 

You on a break craps? Is it busy there? I got an invite from my host to have lunch today at skippy casino, first time I’ve been there in 16 months, pretty busy, I would say pre COVID busy. Caught up with some of the dealers , they are alcohol cleaning their hands after each deal or money to chips or collect/ payouts. I’m told the skin rash is unbearable. One or two regular there punters , no hard core degenerate from recollection, pretty surreal day.

I’m told hygienic steps in place, I’d say below par effectiveness , I think I’ll wait awhile before returning. That got me thinking of you craps hopefully your ok , masked up and being hygienic, have you had a shot yet? Take care in the front line. Cheers

 

Alarm bells should be chiming, trying to entice people back to make up for subdue profits? If I accepted their lunch offer, and it's a big IF, I would enjoy lunch and immediately go home and not return for at least a few days. Never trust hosts, managers or anybody the other side of the tables. They all have an agenda, which basically is parting punters from their cash.

 

Quote Craps
"You are a $100 unit player and you are looking for 21 units. Now you are at a point where you are betting over 21 units a hand just because you are down. The OG part at this point is gone. You looked exactly like a desperate gambler betting few thousands on B every hand"

I have to agree with this.

Imho the point is in the BR....never tried in my play to bring 2000 unit per visit...maybe I should...

 

You want to know the real truth? These posters on this forums are people who lost so much money to the casinos that they are too afraid to play. They still goes to the casino sitting at the table watching more than playing. They win 1 or 2 units and quit. They lose 1 or 2 units and quit too. I have seen the folks who used to be very active in the beatthecasinos. com including Keith himself playing at Palace Station. No bet and all talk. Finally made a bet and out the door he goes.
I had never in all my time working in the casino saw anybody ready to lose 200,000 playing with 100 even though it might work.

 

No, Garfield, you should not.

And I know you long enough and well enough on these boards to know that you know it too.

That said, I do like the fact that you're quoting the response from "Craps"...you would...heck, we all would...be best served by reading Craps' post very carefully, IMHO. Oh, don't get me wrong; I'm not a Marty bettor at the tables and it's quite obviously his preferred MM style, but, frankly, I don't care about that part of his play. I like his mindset. I like his determination and drive towards long-term success at this game. Most of his posts are filled with hints of him being a very Patient and Conservative baccarat player who, as I titled this thread, knows a heck of a lot about "Playing (and Winning) Baccarat Over The Long Term".

Garfield, you've been around these boards long enough to know the "right" from the "wrong"; trust your instincts.

There's been, especially lately, much "noise" in this forum. Talk of long, drawn-out progressions combined, even worse, with "betting every hand" methodologies; betting processes that do more to harm, IMHO, to one's chances for any potential long-term success than they could ever prove as advantageous. And so it's upon us, as individuals, to learn to turn off the "noise".

To get the very best from this forum (or any, for that matter), every member would be best served by being, at the very least, a bit more "particular" in which posts they either support and/or affirm. By choosing well one could truly find themselves improving their bac game.

As always, I wish it for each of us. Take care and stay well.