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Baccarat How many of you cats would wager on player after seeing the 3 ppp streaks pop?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by soxfan, Jun 9, 2021.

  1. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I'm really curious so fess up; how many of you cats would wager on player after seeing the 3 ppp streaks pop, hey hey????
     
  2. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    I am done deciding what the next bet will be. I pre-decide 5 bets in a row. PERIOD!
    As for what you want to know, the most common reasoning is IF THE TREND CONTINUES, you are abroad the P train and stand to benefit from it to the fullest whereas if it is not, you ONLY LOSE ONE BET.
    Acceptable to you?
     
  3. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    With that same train of thought, I’d personally rather get on the train of betting B after 3 players IAR. Looking at my first three shoes of the day it would have been 11 wins in a row had I done that. Not saying player can’t go 14 in a row, but the two longest types of runs I’ve ever seen in my 19 years of playing baccarat were I can’t remember if it was 3 players in a row or 4, but either way, I remember counting in the high 30’s of it either not going 4 or 5 in a row over the course of 3 or 4 shoes. This is unrelated, but since I mentioned longest streaks of things, this was probably about 7 or 8 years ago at the casino queen in East St. Louis, I was playing a shoe that started out with a run of something for a few hands and then chopped the entire shoe. Over 50 chops. Never seen anything like that before or since. Unfortunately, I was on the losing end of that. After about 20 something chops I started betting for a back to back banker and it never came.
     
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  4. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    without any knowledge of previous hands, as if it was the first three showing ppp i would bet banker.
    if I saw heavy runs of 4,5,7.....players priors in that shoe I may just follow those trends.
    Cheers
     
  5. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Betting B after PPP loses flat betting. If you wait for PPPP and then start betting B until a win, this wins flat betting (on my data anyway).

    Attached is a chart for a 2800 live shoe test. We wait for PPPP then start betting B until we win using a martingale. We are using a 1 to 1000 spread. If we hit the table limit of 1000 units then we continue to bet 1000 units each hand until we win.

    PPPP bet B.png
     
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  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    This is right on the button.
     
  7. Ravinderchawla

    Ravinderchawla Member

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    Hi, U said Flat.betting but u are doing Marty up to 1000 units ( 9 Step Marty) & if lose then flat bet 1000 units , By doing this we will go deeper in the hole or if win 1000 units ( We need to win 2 in a row) we reset at 1unit bet
    But for this how much bankroll is required cuz 1000 units are Marty, & then for Flat betting,1000 units how many units bankroll is required I suppose it will be in thousands ,Any stop loss for this Even if we win on later stages of Marty we will.be losing a lot on banker commission & also on 1000 unit bets Flat betting
    Secondly how.can we play this in practical
    online ?
    Thanks
     

  8. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Test results are always after commission, of course. Tables with 1000 unit limits are common at brick and mortar, but online I am not sure.

    Flat betting one unit you would have won +129 units over 2800 shoes and the bankroll required to survive would have been about 120 units. I have found that any strategy that shows a positive result flat betting generally does well with a negative progression.

    Using the martingale in the example displayed in the above chart, bankroll required was about 1600 units to survive. We did have to place the 1000 unit bet twice (winning both times). You can see the dips in profit at those spots approximately bet 1000 and bet 5800 because the martingale required 1024 units as a bet and the table limit was 1000. 1600 units is a lot but it takes money to make money, unfortunately, as Jae has discovered using his 2000 unit bankroll.

    I ran the test again with same rules but 500 unit table limit. It did almost as well with a bankroll required of about 1200 units to survive. Below is the chart.

    PPPP bet B 500.png
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2021
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  9. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    so you would have won 3500 $ with a Marty in around 12500 hands ? nice upright chart .
    I would be curious what would of happen if you do the same thing with same hands on the banker's side BBBB....then Marty with player ?
    Cheers
     
  10. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    Using Martingale in a mechanical way is suicide. Even though if you happen to be on the plus side, the wins will not be great. What about the Human Factor? Tough to act like a machine when we are actually Human.
     
  11. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    so testing means nothing ? I do see your point because so many tests are done with charts showing hundreds and thousands of hands.shoes, ect.......by systems sellers, and then you go play live and get clipped on your first day,lol.
    kind of makes yo wonder how can a simulation holds profit for 30.000 hands and do so poorly in real play ?
    a real puzzle, even it its a mechanical how can it be ?
     
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  12. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    Simple answer.
    Every hand is INDIVIDUAL, RANDOM & SUBJECT TO HOUSE EDGE.
    Patterns are just our own interpretation of past events and they can be common views or contrasting views on this particular subject. I believe more on Law of Big numbers and Imbalances but the tough part is they are very inconsistent.
    I believe the things that experts in Mathematical field believes. With gambling, Math and Fallacies. Light on Maths and Heavy on Fallacies.
    Methods to me is all the same. Stop Loss is the key. I can make any method work. Hit & Run is the deciding factor. By the way, this is all just me. Need to learn more and compare.
     
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  13. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    There is not one program that can accurately test any system. There are definitely imbalances. Don't forget we can bet both sides. Finding something that loses does not mean it will win going opposite. It is the House Edge. Have you ever thought about fighting Random with Random?
     
  14. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    I have done it . I do want to bring up the subject of betting both sides .
    since you are a dealer and therefore see a lot of different players and systems, do you encounter players who play both sides very often ?
    I am asking because I see value in it, and specialy with a marty. do you see value in it at all ?
    when moving up to a second or third leg of a 6 marty I find I can edge with the other side and benefit from it, and I like to explore it more then I have.
     

  15. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Well 11567 BETS over 2800 shoes so about 4 bets per shoe. It would require a lot of time and patience for a modest return. How long would it take to play 2800 shoes if you were playing full time? 2 years? More? At a $10 table that is $35,000 over 2 or more years. Is it worth it?

    At your request I tried BBBB bet P but it was negative flat betting and the martingale did not help. Banker wins more than Player so this makes sense. You really need a positive flat bet outcome for the martingale to improve things.
     
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  16. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    Although so many things are going for the House, but the House can't fight an element called LUCK. To counter luck, all the casinos can do is to impose a max bet. Worst off they can ban you for winning a lot without trying too much. They will still allow you to play other games though. Always win the dark.
     
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  17. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Ergo let the casino worry about their losses. We are out to win .
     
  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    It's because they are system sellers they show those charts, they need something to attach their snake oil to. We play in the short term, not 30000 shoes which is just a smidgen of what can happen in the short term. This is Baccarat not Black Jack


    Law of big numbers won't apply to anybody playing Baccarat, we simply won't play enough decisions.
     
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  19. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    thank you Pal, it is still amazing to me that a play can beat the house, granted you wont get rich, and it shows why the house has to be aware of everything at all time. the fact it is purely mechanical gives it some value I think, as you said it would be difficult making a living with 14,500 $ a year ,lol. maybe better to work at Mac Donald.
    Regards
     
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  20. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    have you ever seen someone get barred from a bacc table ? wouldn't it look really bad for the casino though, as being a bad loser ?
    also you had mentioned fighting random with random a while back, I think it is what I have been doing.
    but still i dont like playing the whole 6 leg of the progression all at once or it wont work.
    I am still stuck on the "time" or "space" in between plays is a big advantage, just experience.
     

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