Blackjack MDawg

Thanks for reply MDAWG. I built my game around casino tolerance. Let's say that took some doing because theirs is a moving target.

THAT BEING SAID. I DONT THINK ID have the guts to put out $1600 in a winner take all hand without knowing the count.

The questions were about doubling and splitting. HE doesn't split. HE doubles if he "feels the notion." HE doesn't Double down on the final max bet.

 

What a load of complete voodoo crap! "You have to be willing to try and keep it up". What most players aren't trying to win?

Look there are all sorts of ways for players to play at an advantage on all sorts of different casino games. And lots of players doing so. And they can explain exactly what they are doing to flip the advantage to their favor.

But you make all these claims of winning and have never been able to explain anything you are doing that would have you playing at an advantage and back up these claims.

Everything you say is long ago disprove (by math) voodoo nonsense. You frequently lean on things like "try harder" or "quit when you are a head" or other such voodoo nonsense that really says or means nothing.

It isn't that hard. If there is something a player is doing to gain an advantage, he can win over the long run. If not he will lose over the long run. That is the undisputed math of it. And all your "try harder" and other nonsense doesn't change that.

 

MDawg you are just a carnival barker type sales/scam man trying to sell magic beans. Absolutely no different that any other gambling carnival barker on YouTube pushing their magic beans / magic system.

Only difference is you aren't "selling" to make a profit, instead you are "selling" for attention.

 

And I can prove my above statements.

Just release wizard from the non disclosure statement and allow him to say what he saw....that you are not playing with an advantage.

If you have nothing to hide then why the gag order?

 

MDAWG So let's say you are playing a $25 min. Table. You lost 6 straight hands. Your bet is now $1600. You get 11vs6. What a great way to exceed max table limits.. Keep some extra. money in your pocket.This is like a 70% winner. But 11vs10 is a threshold. So hit.


OR YOU have 88vs6. Great! ESPECIALLY in a DAS game. Great advantage. But 88vs 10. Stand pat or hit. Of course, a gymnast could buend over and kiss their sweet ass good bye.

 

Hmm. SO in a single deck game. Does my bet size have to ignore counting? Nooo. SO GO M'game on the 1st 4 or 5 hands which are a crap shoot anyway. Then revert back to what is played vs what remains for the last 2 or 3 hands where 85% of the large bets take place.

 

PunkCity's posts are so damn good and spot on they should stand alone for awhile. So I will respond in a similar thread.

MDawg isn't the first guy KJ called out. There are a few, including me. The difference is I readily accept his challenge(s). But he's going to have to pay for his lies. THAT'S just life.

I didn't read MDawgs posts because I thought he was a baccarat player and investor. I get enough investment advice shoved up my ass in the sportsbook.

IT was RE Dietz post that enlightened me. IM thinking, "why would a top notch handicapper from Johnson City, TN give two shits about a blackjack player in Vegas"?

SO as I start reading, it's surreal that a friend has been telling a similar strategy he's been employing and he is not even a player. SO I had some questions for MDawg that my friend couldn't answer.

I learned, by watching my friend play, that it's easy to be discreet. No big deal to witness someone else play. I'm amazed how he's making these profits and not even getting a raised eyebrow in his direction from the pit.

From all this, I'm considering ways to play a different way. HENCE, look like a M'game player, yet still take advantage of high opportunity plays as they present themselves.

That should be what a forum is about. But always have to deal with KJ's rants. Time for NORM to put this puppet to bed. OR me to put him to sleep.

 

Are you talking about the UNKewl one? or your friend "HE"?

I seemed to notice some questions about the count as related to single deck? I don't play single deck I play double deck.

 

MY friend.

 

Are you sure that he's declining to double down based on "feeling" or the count? and in what circumstances? even on an 11??

And he, never splits?

 

Yes. He doesn't want to dip into his pocket more than his initial $3000 buy in. This is on the 7th hand after he lost 6 in a row. He will double on the bets less than $400. Then go by a feel on the $400 and $800 bets.

I don't think he ever splits. I can confirm tonight at the Fury-Wilder fight.

 

Well, if he never splits and declines to double even on an 11 due to "feeling" (versus count) - then, no, I don't play that way.

 

He had a chart that listed the chance of losing hands in a row. I don't know if it makes a difference for shoes, double, or single deck. I didn't pay much attention to it at the time. BUT I think the chances of losing 7 hands in a row were less than 1%. He said he downloaded it off some internet. He didn't have it the other night. BUT said he will try to find it again. Any idea's of where one might find such a chart and/or its accuracy?

 

n Probability One in
1 loss 52.6% 1.9
2 losses 27.7% 3.6
3 losses 14.6% 6.9
4 losses 7.7% 13
5 losses 4.0% 25
6 losses 2.1% 47
7 losses 1.1% 90
8 losses 0.59% 170
9 losses 0.31% 323
10 losses 0.16% 614
11 losses 0.08% 1168
12 losses 0.04% 2219
13 losses 0.02% 4217

FOUND IT.

 

The chances of losing x amount of hands in a row, assuming perfect play, in Blackjack would also depend slightly on the count.

 

The 1st 4 hands in a single deck game are pretty much a crap shoot.

So I lose the 1st 3 hands in a traditional method on a $25 min table. I'M DOWN $75.

But with the MDAWG method I'm down $175.

So the 4th hand becomes pivotal. According to the chart above I've got a 92.3% chance of winning this hand. FOR Mr. DEITZ that's like getting Penn St. Vs Vanderbilt at even money.
WINNING the $200 bet means I'm up $25.

Whereas in the traditional method. I'm still down $50.

HOWEVER, IVE revealed a max bet, for no particular reason, to the pit.

Now heading into rounds 5, 6 and sometimes 7 I have the ability to know exactly what's been played and exactly what still remains. This offers all sorts of options.

Is my math and interpretation correct?

 

Not sure, depends on what you are saying is the "MDAWG method"?

I don't care if the pit sees me bet all the way to table or even to my special limits - I do that some sessions, other sessions I do not.

As far as knowing "what is up" - yes, it stands to reason that you'll know more, the more cards are dealt from the deck(s).

But - and again I don't play single deck but I HAVE played single deck and won a lot playing it in the past - let's say the first twelve cards dealt are all face/tens versus the first twelve cards dealt are 2 - 6 - would not on situation give different picture from the other? Extreme examples of course, but, if I see a sequence in a double deck where not only is the count positive but also a gang of cards in a row are all 2 - 6, I will typically then jump the bet quite a lot.

 

In other words, if I see a situation where the count is nicely positive and I expect the first card out the gate to be a face or ten, due to no faces or tens appearing at all in a stream, I will also jump the bet. Do I win every hand where I do that? No. But - it seems like I win such hands in such circumstances a lot more than I lose them.

 

Got it. This why I only play straight up. The ten that will break my hand could also be the first card of my next hand. DOESNT mean I will always win. It does mean I've improved my position.

 

By MDAWG method, I assume a double up or MARTINGALE STRATEGY. But it sounds like you have options. MY friend is strictly double up, basic strategy, without splits and sometimes doubles.