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Baccarat What are your pre-determined bet selections and the trigger you wait for before placing your bets?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jon Wick, Sep 8, 2021.

  1. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    That is why I deliberately used the term symmetrical


    bpbbpppbbpbpbpbbppbbbpp


    There might be a pattern in there to somebody?? However it is asymmetrical nonsense.
     
  2. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Funny you should ask. I have my violin down at the repair shop right now getting re-strung and having the sound post moved.

    I do not play professionally anymore. The Mariachi gig was the last one I did officially. Though I did play at a wedding reception for one of my computer clients where I also shot photography for their wedding. So I got to bill them thrice for three totally unrelated services in one day.

    You never really stop being a musician, but violin is not the sort of instrument one can just pick up and play if you don't practice everyday.

    So I guess the answer is no, I do not "play" the fiddle anymore. I now fiddle at it:)

    "tis a pitty. I was once very good. At my zenith I could bang out preludium and allegro kreisler as good as any of the BIG names. My favorite music to play was the Bach Unaccompanied Sonatas...though I could never get anyone to accompany me...
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2021
  3. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    Mr Wick, your question has been asked before in other threads.

    That is probably the reason why nobody really answered it.

    I suggest you dig deeper into the forum.
     
    Junket King likes this.
  4. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I only just realized that I am no longer, "Frank Kneeland" I am now, "the Frank Kneeland". You have no idea how funny that simple typo is to me.

    I am currently trying to find someone else to take the position, but I modeled the job request after Edward Shackleton's Arctic Explorer ad...

    Men wanted for hazardous journey. Low wages, bitter cold, long hours of complete darkness. Safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in event of success. ~Edward Shackleton


    P.S. I broke out my fiddle and I'm practicing again, due only to your post and your question. THANK YOU!
     
  5. bacproof

    bacproof New Member

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    Hi,
    i looked for tour bet sel. but i didn’t find it. could you repost it? thanks
    A
     
  6. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    Where did you see that long chop or terrible twos?
    I ve played about 500 shoes and the longest chop was 17.
    For twos was 12.
     
  7. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    You cannot know the next result, but with lots of
    experience and observation you can make a pretty
    good educated guess. I know I can. I practiced with
    coin flips on random.com for years and got pretty
    good at it.
     

  8. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    A big part of it is guessing correctly is where it's going
    after the trend ends. There are only a couple of
    options and it has to be one of them. You can get
    pretty good at guessing the next one if you put in
    the time. Lots and lots of time observing outcomes.
     
  9. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    The best bet according to statistics is to play after a 3 Bankers in a row streak or 3 Players.
    In theory we can win long term playing a 2 two step progression based on that.
     
  10. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Trends can only occur in trials which are not independent and random. Observation of the outcomes of independent random events only creates "trends" in the mind of the observer.

    In my book I used the example of the head of the weather service ordering an examination of the last 100 years of data to determine if days ending in the number "7" were more likely to have tornadoes, only to find out it was actually days ending in the number "5" that won.

    Our calendar system is a human construct and has no bearing on the weather. The data was accurate and the conclusion was also correct. The only mistake was posing the question and having looked in the first place.

    All the cognitive science says conclusively that the more humans try to find patterns in random events the worse we get.

    I will leave you with an excerpt of an article I wrote for LasVegasAdvisor.com
    -------------

    In the book, “The Drunkard's Walk—How Randomness Rules Our Lives” by Leonard Mlodinow there was a science study referenced where they compared the ability of chickens, rats, and humans to identify and account for randomness. Care to guess who won? The chickens came in first, rats close behind, with humans in dead last. The test was simple, you had to press one of two buttons to get a reward. Each button had its own independent random number generator, and though next to each other, they were not connected in any way. The left button was “right” 30% of the time. The right button was correct 70% of the time. The chickens and rats quickly learned that pressing the right button was more likely to reward them. And merrily upon the morrow, they chose to press the right button, much to human sorrow, surcease to other—evermore, only this and nothing more.

    It seems the reason humans preformed so poorly in this study is largely because the buttons were next to each other. Most of the participants concluded that the buttons were linked in some way. Out of a hundred test subjects, not one of them gave up on the left button completely. More amazing, even after being told how the test worked, and that the buttons were unconnected, some of the participants disagreed with the scientists which had set up the test. These sure-they-almost-had-it dissenters asked for a little more time, to figure out the pattern they just knew had to be there. Beaten in a contest of cognition skills by rats and chickens. Oh woe is us, quoth the chicken nevermore.

    The conclusion is clear: truly random events seem non-random to our pattern seeking minds, and vice versa. Seeing connections is good, but this asset hurts us when we connect the unconnected. We cannot see the forest for the trees because we have no idea what a twree looks like, or how to spell it.

    Epilogue:
    When asked about their victory over humans, one chicken had this to say...

    With brains so large and always thinking,

    You’d think there’d be at least an inkling,

    Of better thought than had with drink—

    Or the peckings of a bird.

    Sadly though, with all your guessing,

    Long laments and pointless musings,

    The more you think,

    The more it wends absurd.




    Regardless of your righteous rath,

    Or countless years of pointless trying,

    Many of you end up crying,

    Since no one listens to the math—

    They never will, and never have before.

    Instead, they simply guess, only this and nothing more.

    Quoth the Chicken nevermore…



    ~FK 2021


    (Several Chickens are currently unaccounted for)




    The rats were not available for comment
     
  11. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    And I've been saying just that for years and years. I've said it here in the last 3 weeks several times. So what, so they don't really exist. Doesn't mean we can't exploit them. Doesn't mean they're meaningless. Doesn't mean they do not occur over and over and over with mind-numbing regularity. Pretending they exist means to me they do exist. ​
     
  12. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I'm not going to disagree with you. I would like you to re-read your own post and see if you can find the logic error on your own. If you can't then there's no point in me commenting further. This is one of those things, one must to come to on their own. I wish you the best of luck. A quote to end my commentary:

    The Principia Discordia
    Indeed! But do not reject these teaching as false because I am crazy. The reason that I am crazy is because they are true.

    GP: Is this true?
    M2: Everything is true.
    GP: Even false things?
    M2: Even false things are true.
    GP: How can that be?
    M2: I don't know man, I didn't do it.
    All things are true, even false things.
     
  13. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

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    Excellent reasoning. Our minds try to find patterns.
    And we fall under the illusion that there is a method to always win!
    And we just have to identify patterns where we can exploit positive variance.
    And what can help us be winners is in the phrase of Warren Buffet:

    “We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.”
     
  14. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Before looking at B or P losses or wins, your first step would be to draw a conclusive line of causality between which side won and how that effects the next hand
    Discipline is vital. The hardest discipline to learn is only looking for patterns and trends where there is a direct link of causality which could create them. Sadly, if you look for a pattern in anything, even something TOTALLY-RANDOM that has no pattern you will still find one.

    "many a shaft, at random sent, Finds mark the archer little meant! And many a word, at random spoken, May soothe or wound a heart that's broken!" ~Sir Walter Scott
     

  15. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    I don't play Baccarat anymore.


    [quote Sadly, if you look for a pattern in anything, even something TOTALLY-RANDOM that has no pattern you will still find one.
    [/QUOTE]

    Why is that sad. Finding patterns is a human trait that helped us to evolve the last million years. The reoccurring patterns and trends in roulette are very exploitable whether they exist or not. I'm not sure exactly why you have a problem with that. I have been doing it every day for the last 17 years and I'm still learning. At the end of this month year number 18 starts. Remember when you were a little kid and believed in Santa Claus and wrote letters to him this time of year? I certainly believed he was real and to me he was real whether he existed or not. The reason patterns and trends are exploitable is because the same ones happen again and again and again. What difference does it make if they aren't real, they are still a road map to upcoming events.
     
  16. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    I have something far better than some logic error.
    I have a track record of exploiting patterns and
    trends in roulette for 17 years. Works like a charm.
    If the patterns and trends were one-time occurrences
    there would be nothing to exploit. But they happen
    again and again and again with numbing regularity.
    There is even a lot of logic you can apply to random
    outcomes in roulette. I do it all the time.

    A lot of it has to do with roulette only having 37 or 38
    numbers. If you had a wheel that had two hundred
    numbers the patterns and trends that it creates would
    be mostly not exploitable. The one thing you could
    exploit would be even chance runs where you would get
    huge numbers of red or black or odd or even in a row.
    You don't get that with 37 or 38 numbers.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2021
  17. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    If you had hundreds of numbers and that becomes un exploitable, and then 37/38 numbers makes it easier, wouldn’t a simple P/B in baccarat be the ultimate in exploitation?
     
  18. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    What more should or can one expect from a simple 2 decion EC game ?
     
  19. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    A great and logical question. Random outcomes in baccarat produce different patterns and trends then the ones in roulette do. They're kind of the same but different. Random outcomes from different sources don't always produce the same kind of trends and patterns. I can play coin flips at random.org but that's only because I can do 10 of them a minute. Also in baccarat there's only one stream of information Banker and Player. You need more than one stream in order for it to be playable. I can't just play red and black in roulette it would take too long waiting for it to play my game. If I look at all three EC's, and Gizmo says he uses even more than that, you see a lot more action. I used to use more than 3 but it's too much to pay attention to. And playing online where they only give you 20 seconds in between spins you are really short of time. At Bovada they give you 40 seconds which still isn't very long.
     
    cps10 likes this.
  20. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    More playable action if you have more sources than just one. If baccarat is playing my game then I can win but the problem is waiting for it to play my game. I don't have that kind of time. And sometimes an entire shoe might not be playing my game and the next shoe might be playing it a lot.
     

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