Baccarat Let’s build a system together (part 1)

Like the title says… part 1.

In part 2 I will take the results from this post and put them into a method that I’ve already constructed that has so far performed quite well in the nearly 4,000 shoes that I’ve tested it on.

But I want and strive for better.

how you can contribute/and the simple rules:

The objective is to win only 1 unit in a shoe.

You can only make 2 bets. So treat it like a two-tier Marty.

The bets don’t have to be back to back.

And lastly, your trigger needs to be something that happens at least once a shoe.

Personally, I prefer banker bets, but if you think you have a trigger that works well while betting player, then bring it.

A simple example of using your two bets back to back would be a trigger of waiting for 4 players IAR, and then betting bank hoping it hits in the next two hands.

An example of non back to back betting on a trigger would be waiting for player to hit 4 IAR and only betting that it won’t go 5, if that loses, waiting for 4 IAR before making your second attempt.

Problem with the second example is that you might not see player go 4 IAR twice in a shoe; but that’s okay as long as it’s not too far of a stretch. Most shoes you’ll obviously see that trigger, but not a trigger of six IAR.

Feel free to think about your trigger in simplistic ways or out of the box.

A simplistic approach could be anything as betting on the first two hands of the shoe, or betting on the 5th hand and the 10th hand.

or

something like the Wilson trigger: PPBP they bet BB

By submitting a trigger on this post… I don’t really think you’re sharing any special trade secret; as I highly doubt and two bet trigger sequence is the holy grail

But I’m going to play around with what you want to submit and see if it performs better than my own tailored triggers in the complete method.

Testing will probably take me a few weeks, unless I can get someone like fathead to help.

I almost forgot the best part…

I always see that ad on this forum, “create a post and possibly win $1,500.”

From here on out, if you ever see a new topic from me, I’ll be giving away $1,500 to one of you via cashapp. I want to help some folks build a bankroll and beat the casino. In this particular thread, I’m going to pick whoever comes up with my favorite trigger (announced in part 2).

Cheers!

 

<P streak 3iar or more> <B streak 3iar or more> PPB

Bet 1u on B, if result is P stop. Wait for next trigger and bet 2u on B

 

weak side to chop, strong side to drop

 

BBPPBB bet BB
PPBBPP bet PP

 

I see these kinds of posts all the time where the goal is to try to make only 1 or 2 units per shoe. I really don’t see how anyone can have the patience to sit through an entire shoe just to make 1 unit. This just isn’t emotionally practical. How many of you can just sit there and wait? I can’t. Moreover, when you think you’ve found your trigger, you can still easily loose 4 to 5 bets in a row at which time it’s going to mess with your head, and you’re not going to be able to differentiate a good bet from a bad one.
Now I don’t advocate negative progressions (NP) nor do I use one, however, playing a NP with very small units where you’re betting the majority of the hands in the shoe is better than waiting for that one trigger that’s going to make you a single unit.
Back in the day, “Ellis” (from a forum I won’t name), introduced the F2 system, where you follow and bet on the same side that the last 2 in a row occurred on. This system will allow you to win on all zig zags, and straight line streaks. The only thing F2 loses to is the terrible 2s, for which there is another system to get you thru those ( it’s called OTB4L). So, basically if you learn to play F2 and also OTB4L, you will easily make the 1 or 2 units you’re looking for and probably much more, but to keep it low risk, I suggest getting out of the shoe when you’ve made just a few units.
If I get requests to post the F2 system, I’ll make a separate thread and post the rules.
I personally play FTS (follow the shoe) and flat bet, but it’s not for everyone. I’m assuming you guys want something easies to learn and use, that’s why I’m suggesting F2 and OTB4L to make a few quick units. Recognize that F2 and OTB4L are systems you would use with small $5 and $10 units, and not big units.

 

@CT70 I am familiar with those systems. I find them to be fairly solid. The timing on most of them is what the key is. You can never know when those terrible 2’s are or when a streak of 4 or more is coming. So theoretically they work. You are right you can get your 1 or 2 or more units out of them but certainly don’t get greedy!

 

I play for a repeat of a series.

BBBP here I would bet for P

If I get BBBPB I will then bet for B. If I get a chop such as BBBPBP I will wait for another series before betting again. Most of the time a 1-2 Marty will get you that win. But waiting out a chop to play again later will win for you eventually. I don’t know that I would play a full Marty until you get a win. I’ve seen five or six losses in a row with this but rarely and I think 6 is the limit. If you have some balls you can try a 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 to see if you can get your 1 unit win with a 127 unit bank.

If you really want to get crazy, do a Grand Marty of 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 for a 247 unit bank!

 

I wouldn’t ever suggest a Marty unless you’re playing $1 units.
I would recommend a negative betting progression of U1D2. Go up (U) 1 unit when you lose and (D) down 2 units when you win.

 

I use a completely different progression. I put that up just for an example of those wanting their 1 unit as quick as possible

 

Agreed.

 

I've explored this many moons ago, would only be feasible if you had something like a 90+% guarantee, so you could get away with going in big.

I've witnesses a player make a single bet per shoe, any shoe, he wasn't a winner.

PPPP or anything greater than a streak of 4 Players, has a postive EV to hit Bank (Zumma shoes), still not 90+% certain, so again a non-starter.

If you knew you had an almost guarantee of winning, then you would, you would wait for your trigger and bet $500 or $1k units, but it would have to be guaranteed, for fun you could bet the table minimum for other bets. I'd do this, no problem whatsoever, alas I don't believe any such favourable betting opportunity exists.

Thinking back to all I've witnessed and played, I don't believe anything such a bet opportunity could be based on prior hands, i.e wait for a P6 streak, wait for a series of singles and bet double B, wait for any pattern, repeating, reversed mirrored. Could a favourable situation arise from tracking cards dealt? I don't think so, including John May's card tracking for the Tie bet.

IF I had to chose anything, I would wait for a shoe to be show an even number of Bankers vs Players outcomes after 68 hands, 34 B's and 34 P's, the next side to win, I would bet that hand to hit 36 before the losing hand hit 35. (sym v's asym), but I would not risk £500 or greater value units when such a betting opportunity presented it self.

 

@Jae would you mind sharing the results of this 4000 shoe test, without actually posting the method!!

For example;

In a 4000 shoe test, you won the first placed bet X number of times and won the second placed bet X number of times and lost both bets X number of times.

Thanks

 

2 bets PER shoe? i do not understand where you are going with this,why not more bets per shoe to give yourself a better chance?

 

Everthing out of the shoe is garbage and i think you know that, 50% 51%52%53% is following the loser way of what it takes to win and beat the game more then not, try looking at not falling below 40% in any shoe, that is what long time winners do, that is the holy grail.

 

I've noticed there is no input from @SPIKE. This should be perfect for him, since he says he has an over 80% win rate and only tries to win 1U. lol..lol........Come on man!! where are you.

 

You’d think he would have some input as to how to accomplish that. I do believe that with our heads together this can be helpful. I think multiple ways to skin the cat can allow winning to be normal.

 

As an example last week I started playing at a new state casino that just opened their live tables. I played nine sessions so far and bet exactly nine times. I won one unit and stopped. Get out your calculator and tell me what's my hit rate at that casino so far.

 

Is that 1 unit per shoe or 1 unit total for 9 shoes?

 

1 unit per shoe I think. So 9 wins and 0 losses huh? Impressive. Or did you lose hands along the way but still won 9 units?