Blackjack Pro BJ counter

Long watch, one of the best videos I've seen in a long while, I'm sure many on this site will recognise a lot of the casinos featured.

 

This documentary has been out a couple years now, I think 2019 was the release date, but most KC's journey that was documented in the film took place a decade ago 2010ish. You can see that some of the people that showed their faces like Max Rubin and Stanford Wong were much younger in the clips.

A couple thoughts:

First early on Arnold Snyder makes a statement that 10% of people in casinos think they are advantage players but only 1% really have the ability and skill to take any serious money from the casinos. I don't know where Arnold came up with these numbers, but 10% of people in a casino thinking they are advantage players seems ludicrous to me. His point is well taken that of the people that think they are playing with an advantage only a fraction actually are....at least an advantage that really means anything, but both the 10% and 1% numbers seem very high to me.

Back in 2010 era there were really 2 paths to making money as a card counter. One was what was referred to as slash-and-burn, traveling the country and sometimes world, playing as high stakes as you could, making as much as you could for as long as you could, until you had burned out everywhere and could no longer get a game. The second was a grinder approach, identifying and playing stakes that were better tolerated, playing short sessions, so as to cause less headaches for pit folks and move around a lot, making a lesser amount per year, but playing for many years. Longevity type thing.

KC was the perfect example of the slash-and-burn style or path. I don't know anyone else that did the RV thing the way KC did but many players and teams at that time just hit one location until they were banned and then moved to the next. The consensus was a player could get about a year, anywhere from 6 months to 18 months, before they had burned out everywhere and were out of business. And a solo player could make in the neighborhood of a million, maybe slightly more depending on stakes and variance.

But now a decade later, technology is working against that slash-and-burn style. Database entries travel faster than players can. I think the time lines and amounts possible to make from this slash-and-burn approach are both shortened.

But even with the actual experience a dacde old, it is a great video for anyone interested in card counting and there are things to be learned from KC's experiences.

 

It is pretty ridiculous. It's more like at any given time there are zero AP's in a casino in every once in a while they might wander in and wander out. In all the years I played roulette I've never seen one. Not one that knew what the hell he was doing. I've seen people bring volumes of notes with them write things down but I've never seen them win they always lose. As far as blackjack goes these days, who knows how many AP's are left. It's certainly not 10% or even 1% at any given time. In baccarat they all think they're AP's, but almost none of them are.

 

I have to say that number seems a bit high. I knew 40 VP-AP's out of the whole dang city.

I will have the opportunity to ask Arnold as I'm seeing him this week for dinner.

 

Most legitimate AP's aren't going to be at a roulette table on a regular basis. There's probably at least one AP machine player in every casino on earth 24/7 though.

 

Yeah sounds about right. When Flush Attack was a thing my team took shifts at the Showboat around the clock. Not just to keep it covered but to keep away competition. We wanted to make sure any enemy pro that showed up NEVER had a positive experience and returned.

It worked for a whole year, then an enemy team deliberately burned the play on us. Partly jealously, but mostly because they didn't want us making money and being able to play other bigger things. There was a very dog eat dog nature to the business back then.

For six whole months we got on progressives at breakeven just to starve out the enemy teams and drive them out of business. It sorta worked too. We ended up acquiring several of the enemy teams players, since they were never working. It also kind of backfired as their players were not as well trained as ours...and they had bad habits that were hard to retrain.

For a few brief months we had the city to ourselves. Then new teams sprang up.

 

Like I said I've never seen even one. And I pay attention to how people bet. I suppose if there was a VB player there I would not be able to spot him but they are few and far between anyway.

 

If you remember to ask him, please report back as I am just curious to know what he was thinking when he came up with that 10% number.

I mean if a player living here in Vegas, visits some local casinos playing through $200 at video poker every week and that is enough play through to generate the minimum $5 a week free play, is that an advantage player? Or someone that thinks they are an advantage player? Or does the casino consider that player an advantage player?

What about a $5 blackjack player that plays the 8 deck game at Ellis Island, spreading $5-$25? Simulations might show a profit of $1 an hour. Is that player an advantage player?

Even if you include all this low level break even type stuff, I still think that 10% number is way off. But I do think the real point he was trying to make is of all the AP's or players that think they are AP's, it is only a tiny, tiny fraction of 1% that make any real money. That I do agree with, which is why most countermeasures are ridiculous. Take reducing penetration on a blackjack game. That just means more shuffle time, less rounds played and considering that 99.9% of players are losing money, the casinos have just cost themselves 10, maybe 100 times what whatever they would have lost from that rare AP that can actually make money. They are literally spending a dollar to save a few cents. This was a point Bill Zender tried, but really was unable to convince the casino industry of.

 

I am curious as well. My main reason for meeting him might take forefront (his wife is sick) but I will ask. It'll give us something to talk about other than our futures.

BTW: When me and my mom ran the VP team training we failed 7 out of 8 prospective players as they simply didn't have "the right stuff". Obviously one needs hand eye coordination and intelligence but there is another ineffable requirement that can't be put into words...so I will stop speaking.

 

Yep, you cannot put it into words. It's true in roulette. All people can do pattern recognition but some of us are way better at it than others, that's a proven fact. I was beating roulette looking at the first tote board I ever tracked. Pattern recognition Deluxe..

 

And you're full of shit!

 

I really like what your saying about the shuffling time. But, I have a different take on it. By the lack of penetration of games and shuffling early they are promoting the idea that the game can be beaten.....If you go by what the casino promotes easily at that....

They are shuffling on even counts or counts not beneficial in any way. This doesn't help them at all other than promoting the idea that the game can be beaten.

They want all the BJ players they can get. Ask most gamblers and they will tell you that the best game in the casino is BJ......For a lot of players early success with the game convinces them they are great at it... Only to crash and burn later.... Most wil then still play...

As a novice I remember being trampled at times by the game.... There is nothing you can do to change the order of the cards. Until you can do that you can't guarantee a win at any card game... Better odds in some sure... winning NO!