Baccarat The Very Near Perfect System

The original below is written by the member GLC from Rouletteforum cc (2011).
I believe I have a better solution than the original.

This is a system that developed while I was tweaking the "Very near infallible Roulette system". That system is way too complicated and almost impossible to play except at home with pen and paper and time.


This is an Even Chance system.


We will use the R/B even chance.


Wait until you have 2 colours in a row. Either RR or BB.


We then bet for a change of colour. We will bet at most 6 times for the change. If it doesn't change in 6 bets, wait until it does change to resume betting.


We are going to use a progression that is based on the "Philiberte" system found in the Monte Carlo Anecdotes. Atlanta's progression in his latest excellent system "Matrix Trendgrabber" was also used. It's not exact but close.


1-2-4


1-3-6


2-4-8


2-6-12


3-6-12


3-9-18


4-8-16


4-12-24


5-10-20


5-15-30


7-14-28


7-21-42


9-18-36


9-27-54


12-24-48


12-36-72


15-30-60


15-45-90


We will follow A's rules in that we stay at the same level as long as we don't lose 3 times in a row. After each win, we return to the lowest number in the level and start again. If we lose 3 times in a row, we move to the next level and play the same way. Even though these numbers if added together equal a large number of units, not to worry because we will be winning as we move up the progression thus keeping our drawdowns under control.


Getting back to playing rules, as long as we are winning 1 time out of 3 betting for 2 colours in a row to change, we will stay at the 1st level. After each win, we will wait until we have another 2 of the same colour to resume betting for a chop. If we get 6 losses in a row it will mean that the same colour has hit 8 times in a row. This will happen from time to time.


As long as we are in the 1st level, we will be in the profit accumulation mode. In profit accumulation mode, we only bet for 2 in a row to change. Once it changes, we wait again for 2 in a row before resuming betting for the chop.


If we lose 3 in a row at the 1st level, we will be down 7 units and will immediately move to the 2nd level of 1-3-6 and we are now in the recovery mode. We will continue betting for a change. When we get a change we will start betting for the chops to continue. This is the difference between profit accumulation mode and recovery mode.


If we are in profit accumulation mode, we only bet for a streak to chop.


If we are in recovery mode, we bet for streaks to end and for chops to continue. Our progression continues according to the betting rules no matter what mode we are in and even as we move from 1 mode to the next.


Once we are at a new level, we stay at that level until we fully recover our losses and then we drop back to level 1 and wait until we have 2 in a row to begin betting for a chop.


Here's a short example:


R No bet
B No bet
B No bet but 2 in a row so bet 1 for chop
R Win +1 in profits Now wait for 2 in a row
B No bet
R No bet
R No bet but 2 in a row so bet 1 for chop
R Lose, bet 2 for chop
R Lose, bet 4 for chop
B Win +1 so (+1+1=+2) wait for 2 in a row
B Bet 1 for chop
B Bet 2 for chop
B Bet 4 for chop
B Lost 3 in a row so we are -7 and enter recovery mode and also move to the 1-3-6 level.
B Lost 1 bet 3 for chop
R Win +2 -7 = -5 since we are in recovery mode we start betting on chops to continue so we now bet 1 in the 2nd level of 1-3-6
B Win +1-5 = -4 bet 1 for chops to continue
B Lost -1-4=-5 Bet 3 for streak to chop
R Win +3-5=-2 Bet 1 for chops to continue
B Win +1-2=-1 Bet 1 for chops to continue
R Win +1-1=0 We have recovered all losses, not we are back to profit accumulation mode waiting for 2 in a row to form so we can bet for it to chop and we are also back to 1st level of 1-2-4. We are still +2 overall. No bet yet.
B No bet
R No bet
R Bet 1 for chop
B Win +1+2=+3 No bet. Wait for streak to form
B Bet 1 for chop
R Win +1+3=+4 No bet. Still in profit accumulation mode. Wait for streak of 2
R Bet 1 for chop
R Lose, bet 2 for chop
R Lose, bet 4 for chop
B Win +1+4=+5 No bet. Still in profit mode. wait for streak
B Streak has formed bet 1 for chop
B lose, bet 2 for chop
B Lose, bet 4 for chop
B Lose, -7 go to recovery mode and level 2. continue betting for streak to end. Bet 1 unit, the 1st bet of level 1
B Lose, -8 Bet bet 3 for streak to end
R Win +3-8=-5 bet 1 for chops to continue
B Win +1-5=-4 bet 1 for chops to continue
B Lose bet 3 for streak to end
B Lose bet 6 for streak to end
R Win +3-4=-1 bet 1 for chops to continue
B Win +1-1=0 Reset to profit accumulation mode and drop to 1st bet level.


Seems to be solid as a rock. So far!

 

My selection and methodology wish I assume perform better than the system above.

Rules (betting against series of five)

a) bet against a series of three
b) bet against a series of four
c) bet that a series of five will become six or above
d) if we lose the bets above we have a series of five

The problem with the selection above by GLC is that when we bet against a series of two we get all the higher series against us.
And they will come in chunks rather then betting against pure series (like five in a row)
Gap Methodology.

Cheers

 

That’s way too complicated for me. It’s much easier to play F2, follow the side that the last 2 (or more) occurred on. Use a 1,2 loop, never betting the 2 unless you win the 1. you will be on every straight line run on the 3rd repeat, and every zigzag run by the 3rd event. You will catch every run (straight and zig zag) very early. The only thing you lose to is the terrible 2s. Once you start see the 2s, switch to OTB4L (opposite time before last).
Add in the most common and least common events and you can make decent money. This works pretty good in baccarat and even better in roulette where the runs are longer.

 

Nice that you have a method within your comfort zone.

Cheers

 

Ran it over 1 billion trials and it failed every time as these systems always do.

And r/b is NOT an even chance. Either only win 18 out of 38 times, not 18 out of 36

 

Why did you run it a billion times?
I assume that each player has fewer real trials (in real life) where some will be lucky and others will bust.
And I also assume no one will face a billion times at the tables.

I estimate 100.000 to 200.000 trails as a weekend player with a certain amount of years at the table.
So maybe you should run several tests of 150.000 trails each and see how many times the system bust.

My opinion.

 

My favorite like this was a guy that martingaled from one end of the casino to the other end. Even chances roulette, bac and craps. Bet the chop one time after two and on to the next table. He actually did pretty well for a long time.

 

Testing is not necessary. I am considering Frank Barstow's principle of diminishing probabilities.


No problems with any EC variety .

 

Thanks for your post. Is the GLC system you posted a strategy you would use yourself?

The probabilities you just described yourself are confirmed accurate by Nassr. You may find useful a video on "Nassr" YouTube channel: It's called "Baccarat-Banker or Player-Don't lose your money by thoughtless decisions" [Parts 1 and 2]. He's a mathematician and Baccarat player who has done extensive research on the Baccarat probabilities you describe. You're correct with all of them.

 

Mr. J Thanks for your Like. I was under the impression that the discussion was in regard to roulette EC.


( R and B ).

 

Sputnik, thank you for this post.

The entry criteria mostly aligns with my thinking but I prefer to bet for chop once the streak has broken rather than against it.

I generally find that OLD on its own for two bets is still a useful BS, with no other trigger for capturing a win, and transitions between streaks. Using a gap on a series loss before starting again isolates losses to a particular 3iar occurance that starts when you make bet #1. It wins on singles, 2iar and two-thirds of the 3iar occurances.

A choppy result is 80%-90% probable after 4iar or longer streak, as per regression to mean.

Betting OLD with 2-3 bets can lock up wins if bet against the streak or after the streak completes. Regression to mean provides a level of confidence as further outliers are less probable immediately after an outlier. I encourage anyone to study the data, 1000 coin flips, notice how many streaks don't immediately flow directly on from another streak without some chop. This is reversion to the mean after the outlier.



I don't normally like to switch to following a streak betting that a 4/5iar becomes a 6iar+ as that introduces another nemises pattern of losing on a 4/5iar, which are more common than the target 6iar.

If I wanted to catch a streak I would want to be on it earlier and attempt it in the gap when OLD has lost twice back to back on a 3iar. Streaks are also better suited to positive progressions so it may be worth persuing streaks with OLD after two misses.

 

Yes, glc a terrible selection. Playing the series, ignoring the singles a good idea!

 

Im new here, sorry for this being my first post. Anyway I LOVE betting against a series. Ive certainly been bitten but I feel like I win more than I lose. Ive always wanted to put some math to this and determine the best series's to go against and odds etc.

 

Yeah, the anti-streaks style is solid but only if you don't try to buck up against bankers streak, hey hey.

 

I will agree with you there . But I'll add this for fun. It was a players streak that roasted me to likes I'll never forget lol. It went about 15 or 16 strong. I was CERTAIN, after 7, that it would break any moment - lol. well. it didn't. oh the fun times.

Sine then I have come to realize that I need a hard stop/reset to be set at the amount of losses in row I'm willing to except - I haven't decided the number yet, just been playing with it based on my bank roll size at the time.

 

Consider a streak of 3 to go against. Use 3 anti trend bets .

stop with the first win and resume betting with the now new series .


y y y trend x x x anti trend .



A friendly advice. Play at your own risk.


Never more than 3 anti trend bets .

 

N.B. The above anti trend only for Baccarat anti trend play.

 

"It went about 15 or 16 strong. I was CERTAIN, after 7,"

For god sake, you need to apply the brakes after 3 losses in a row. I started off playing Bacc' using AS, always waited for 4iar, I was positive (+VE) after 3 months. As we all should know long streaks occur, therefore you don't want any single long streak sending you home bust, fucking stop and wait for another bet opportunity. Think of it this way, if it goes to 10, 12, 15 and you're still betting, then it XX number of losing bets just to win ONCE.

 

I like to bet anti-4. It tends to keep the long losing streaks away. If a streak gets to 4IAR I will stop and let it run itself out. With so many 1s 2s and 3s you will typically have good success with it assuming the MM is solid which I still need to work on that piece.

 

Cats what can't win betting flat should just stay home,baby, hey hey!!!!