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Baccarat The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Junket King, Apr 1, 2022.

  1. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    The more you will win calendar wise, the more you will win as you're going into the future. You can also keep playing in the present and go through the variance and all the crap but why put yourself through that. Remember, I know you have the edge and I know how you play. Your team wants to take you out and murder you in the parking lot half the time. That's fine, I can't play that way. I'd rather get in get it done and get out a winner. You'd rather stay in, flay yourself with a buggy whip till you're a nervous wreck, and leave a winner. Life is too short in every way to play that way for me.
     
  2. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    You left out the most important part. When it's playing my game I have no downswings. For me to bet it has to be playing my game. Like tonight, I went to one casino and won a unit immediately because it was playing my game. I went to another casino that's using a different platform and it was not playing my game at all. I could not see a single bet so I left. So all those figures you did work great in Fantasyland they don't work worth a crap in the real world. For me to win the outcomes have to be acting in a very specific way. The fallacy is there is some system out there for roulette where you can just sit down and win and win and win under any condition. I can't do that, nobody will ever be able to do that. I've gone two days in a row where I couldn't find a roulette table online playing my game. And then the next day they all were. Variance, it's a bitch..
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2022
  3. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    I've addressed this sophomoric ridiculous topic so many times I don't do it anymore. I'm sick of explaining it. You have no idea how real things work you live in a fantasy land like every other compulsive gambler. Good luck with that.
     
  4. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I did assume you are playing your game with no downswings. That's your claim and I clearly stated that we would accept it on face value.

    So the only parameter that needs to change is the time it takes to find a favourable condition and play a session.

    You say sometimes it takes up to two days to find a game before you play.

    Let's assume it takes two days every single time to find a game and make your play. So we know that your session win rate is a very conservative 1 unit every two days.

    The flat bet method was based on making 1 unit per session. The previous calculation said 8 sessions per day over 15 days so that is 8 X 15 = 120 sessions in total. So 240 days maximum.

    Exactly same math, with the flat bet method making 20% per session (1 unit with 5 unit bankroll) over 120 sessions with compounding makes a conservative 15,340,142,258 units.

    Let's keep it real to your situation and assume you are playing with pennies in the real world with 1 cent bets and a 5 cent bankroll, again just to keep it real.

    That compound return is now $158,752,118 or $158 million plus a house and a nice car from 5 cents in just 240 days.

    What is your excuse now?

    Does it take a year to place a bet and your 120 sessions is now over a century?

    Or do you have losing days and drawdowns? Or haven't played 240 times yet?

    You have nowhere to hide, which is it?
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2022
  5. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    This used to crack me up now it just bores me. You always act like you're the first ones that ever think of this and ever present me with your pedantic ideas. You're just another one in a long line that doesn't understand how it works because you've never had a winning method. All you've got is what you think you would do if you had one. Like I said I'm done wising people up, it's just not worth my time. I don't owe you anything, let alone an explanation of why I do what I do. The only people that I have to convince of my authenticity are the people that pay me at the casino. Everybody else is irrelevant, including what you think. I even know what you'll say next that's how clever I am.
     
  6. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I took your claims at face value. You make two units every night. I allowed just 1 unit every two days, well under your claim, here:

    And I took your claim of no downswings and always winning at face face value.

    So you make over $150 million in 120 sessions compounding your wins with no drawdown and only needing to make 5 bets.

    These are your claims and your numbers.

    The math which you hate exposes your claims for what they are.

    You hate math and multiplication.

    All I did was use more conservative numbers than your claims and multiply the win by itself 120 times and the answer was clearly "too big" vs your actual results and "real world" experiences.
     
  7. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    To be honest I haven’t seen him claim that he’s compounding his unit up.

    If he’s winning 1 unit per session, I think somewhere I read he does 6 sessions a day. Let’s call it 5 sessions at 1 unit profit per session for 120 days ( consecutive, non consecutive don’t matter)

    1x5x120 =600 unit

    Very doable, will that buy a casinoverse doubtful, your point I’m not sure about.

    I really can’t find a post he claims to compound his units won.

    Highly unlikely as table maximum are enforced so the imaginary $150 million yeah , nah , not going to work. Not even a logical argument even for this interverse.

    I get you want to call him a liar.

    So just do that , you would phrase it along these lines

    hi I’m twoup and I believe you are a liar spike. Everything I read written by you , spike, I consider it just bald faced liars.

    but leave off with the imaginary compound stuff , it’s just nonsense. Cheers
     

  8. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    The compound stuff is important to drive home the point that if he doesn't EVER lose a session and he has zero downswings and his bankroll requirement is just five bets (all his claims) what fool on earth would not grow their bankroll by steadily increasing their unit size?

    Put it in context. He cannot ever lose, he has no draw down its just a perfect exponential growth curve.

    He can double a bankroll and then double in half the time and keep doubling at a faster and faster rate.

    Of course his claims don't stack up, and if he insists they do the he should be thanking me for pointing out the obvious, he can now go from the poor house to a penthouse in every city in the world.
     
  9. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Pretty stupid comment, I’m surprised.

    You get professional player and dumb fuck player . The only fools I see doing what you discussed are those dumb Arab in Sydney casinoverse, they are using drug money to gamble, then win and compounding up as you suggested they bust out , go down to the car and get another wad of cash and repeat. Skills of a fuctard.

    Real world people don’t do that which you say. In the imaginative world yes, dealers yes, children yes, people that have no concept of being a professional in any profession, yes. Is that how you think millions $ are made? Is that how you think millions $ are kept? It’s certainly an aspect of becoming a millionaire and yes some note the word some did exactly that on the stock market or reality , but they eventually reach a ceiling and stop or bust out.

    No just call him a liar , your grasping at straws otherwise. Cheers
     
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  10. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Yep he's making a bunch of unrealistic claims.

    There are plenty of those gangster types splashing the cash here too. They don't care win or lose.
     
  11. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Punky "With out those fools the casinoverse would go broke, I used to ridicule them at the table year and years ago , but now I offer them encouragement, tell them that was just unlucky or that dealer is notoriously strong and difficult to beat etc.

    No dumb rich show ponies = no casinoverse for me to make money from.

    Next time encourage them junket. Lol"


    Can't agree fully with those sentiments, because I dislike casinos more. I suppose it all depends on who they are and the source of their cash, rich Chinese students with parents links to the CCP, I couldn't give two hoots about, like the one who bet £3k each hand against a 7P streak, too bad, so sad. But another guy who I chat to a fair bit, he also dropped £30k last week and another £5k over the weekend, I don't like to see lose, alas not really my business, I do know the casino love it, hence why I don't like to see them lose.

    The admin's lap-dog and my number 1 troll quipped

    "And it is especially nosensical to set 60/80 units nets profits win goal with an inefficient labby style"
    Sure beats playing at a kitchen table winning fictitious units muttering "hey fuckin hey", yes the Labby is insidious, which is why what I do hardly represents a true Labouchere at all, far from it.

    Spike "If you're there to have fun and get your adrenaline pumping you aren't there just to make money you're there for entirely different reasons. " That is the only reason I am there, to make money, not for some adrenaline high, challenge, junkie fix.

    Spike "All it does is expose your bankroll for a longer period to the infinite bankroll of the casino and this is never a good thing. "
    That makes no sense whatsoever, who cares if any casino has millions, how does that effect me trying to double say, my smaller bankroll, I win they payout, I lose they take my chips, it matters not how much they have, nothing more than a useless irrelevant useless cliche.

    EZ "The only people that use "targets" are people that DO NOT have an edge. They are scared to give back the winnings and thats why they feel reaching a target is important."

    Huh?? Where is an edge, any edge to be found betting Banker or Player? In fact in the game of Baccarat, there isn't an edge, unless you consider over a series of bets my expectation to win at least one hand is a positive expectation, which diminishes eventually down to a 50-50 proposition as the series reaches it's final conclusion.

    2Up "Practically there are limits, fatigue is always a factor, not tilt and make irrational plays out of frustration".
    Exactly, fatigue, as well as human emotion play a huge part of anybodies table action.

    "Funny how you make it about yourself but I don't see any documentaries on your amazing achievements. You should be a billionaire by now if you're that good. Why are you not making $500k bets?"
    Spike is Spike in his very late 70's, been banging on about a 72% strike rate, now claims that figure has increased, yet reading between the lines regarding his thirty purchases, won't buy a fish cos' he doesn't eat the head, wastes nothing, blah blah, his culinary habits, tells everybody what they need to know. Not the first to live a fantasy gambling life on the internet, but there ya go, whatever floats your boat. Everybody has the right to choose to believe what they read or otherwise, I'm sure it matters little to the author.

    Punky "To be honest I haven’t seen him claim that he’s compounding his unit up.

    If he’s winning 1 unit per session, I think somewhere I read he does 6 sessions a day. Let’s call it 5 sessions at 1 unit profit per session for 120 days ( consecutive, non consecutive don’t matter), 1x5x120 =600 unit"

    Oh please, don't buy into this fantasy, he told me many years ago in an email he was betting $1 units, this after a decade of claiming he had a 72% strike rate, of course he will now deny this, the $1 unit bit. He is an old man, this is how he gets his daily jollies, what can you do, he generates traffic!!!

    The absurdity of it all has been done to death on the defunct GG site, I've nothing personal against him, rather a washed up old timer living out his fantasy on the internet, he likes cats, so he's okay with me, but his gambling claims need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.
     
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  12. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Okay back to the table action.

    Issues, issues, issues, bulk of shoes played? Skulduggery, of course not? Now I'm seeing long streaks basically every shoe, streaks of 7 or more, which of course don't help with how I play, a change is required. Due to inevitable long streaks and constantly running into them, it was getting to the stage that I was betting the columns using low value string chips only due to lack of confidence. I hit column fails (a 1/128) appearing twice in 7 or 8 trials, 3 times once since April 1st, online it is considerably worst.

    Basically it is not robust enough, therefore I have changed "tweaked" things, I am now using columns of 8, so it's the 256 balls into a bag analogy!!! It had to be done, I've encountered the usual long streaks which haven't been an issue, I've had 1 column fail 1/256 x 1/256 so far, which had no impact as I had already quit the shoe (thankfully, I'll take that). Also I tested a few problematic 7Col shoes which I've played thus far and those fair better using columns of 8.

    I'm slowly adapting that the emphasis has now shifted a bit from the horizontal to the diagonal, however there is a potential extra bet to be considered?

    Horizontally things are not performing as well as columns of 7's, even more perplexing what I have found is that nemesis patterns are less definable. With Columns of 7's I had a good handle on what caused me issues, now it could be anything streak~wise, what matters is the horizontal spacing of the BO (bet opportunity).

    Let me explain for those that understand "Anti-Binary Repeat" as I call it. If I'm betting rows 4 and 6 and the shoe is chopping, then I'm gonna lose my bet if those chops continue. If I'm betting adjacent rows (1&2, 4&5) and the shoe has a lack of chops, then it is also likely I'm losing my next placed bet. I haven't reviewed my shoes yet, something I need to do over the next day.

    Columns are producing way fewer BO's, but I feel are more robust, I need to spend a bit of time on it all over the next few days, it has me thinking. However I also noticed considerably more horizontal BO's, then I realised why!!

    Using columns of 8 and pairing results in the first two columns, pairs only provide 4 possible variables (BB BP PB PP) which means there will be repeats, it came to mind between shoes, maybe I need to reverse what I'm doing? When the 3rd column kicks in there are only 8 possible combinations and 16 for the 4th column and so on.

    Then I realised (it was between shoes, akin to a rapid brain storm), if you know a pair is guaranteed to repeat, how can you bet it if the top of your columns are;

    1-2
    B-B
    B-P (lose)
    B-? (last hit, furthest back, or be greedy and go for the repeat and it's opposite) It's early days, I need to digest things a bit more and maybe clear the kitchen table as well as considering the potential of long streaks at the start of any shoe.

    The same principal will also apply to the 3rd column, 8 possible 3 hand combos, all of them ain't going to appear. Feel free somebody with good logic skills to chip in, can this be taken advantage of, or just wishful thinking?

    Whatever the the conclusion it needs to handle a shoe like this which I encountered last night;

    P-B
    P-B
    P-B
    P-P
    P-B
    P-B
    B-P
    B-B

    Starts P6 followed by B5

    Session~wise, Sun' I was down for the first 3 shoes from memory, slowly adjusting to Horizontals being less robust and I'm shouldn't be betting them until column 4 using higher value chips, from a 300u buyin, at one stage I was up over 100u my goal was close to a 200u profit, I got finally got hit which usually happens once your mind drifts towards the exit. Managed to irk out a 68u profit and had to cal it a night due to tiredness and fatigue, unwilling to mentally continue went to my hotel.

    Monday, can't say I was well rested due to issues of sleep when your brain is awash with serotonin, you can't just park that shit and fall asleep. Buyin' nil due to having not cashed out the previous night, 368u in chips, which all came into play. Can't recall if it was one shoe or more, but I did get hit hard by a shoe or two (horizontal fails). Gear changes required, my goal was the 30u "given back" from the prior night, plus 200 base units. I left with 120u, just shy of 190u for the two days/nights. No where close to what I wanted to achieve, but there you go.


    As a side note, I've mentioned previously supplementary bet options, used to recoup lost tie wagers, Banker tax and anything else. I dabbled with 16 hand Unbalanced vs Balanced, for a 16 hand sequence I should have a 80.4% of snaring a win (52,666 vs 12870 combos), what an absolute crock of shit that is, let's say it was soon discarded, kinda highlights the crap Dr Tom stolen from me and now peddles on YouTube.

    Another bet option 8-col AM4 performed well, a single fail in over 20 shoes played, alas it clashed with my prime bet option many times so wasn't taken all the time, however it did perform well enough to keep my lower vale Labby strings under control.
     
  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    upload_2022-5-10_18-41-22.png
    Of course Karl
     
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  14. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Boom! So true!
     

  15. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    And too old to beat his meat.:dead:
     
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    For the sake of transparency, here is yesterdays afternoon / last night's session report. Of course I could post I won XX amount of units, but this thread is not about that.

    It's far too easy to skip losing sessions and give everybody the impression that my Baccarat prowess is second to none, but it is not my intent for this thread to be about it. Despite the childish petty vindictive moniker and despite feeding the proxy admin's lapdog and my number one troll...

    Here goes;

    Buyin' 100 base units, no where near enough when running two sets of chip values. I'm early, no other players I have to carry the shoe, jesus mary lover of god, how people play by looking at the score board, I'm flat betting DBL, FLD, lose, lose, lose, lose fucking lose, trigger win.

    No wonder people lose, looking at the score board to determine your next bet, what a complete utter crock of shit and that's coming from somebody who has probably played more shoes than most. Optional bet option, I need one to off-set my triggers, for various reasons.

    8 Column ABR was my trigger bet, first three shoes I'm down, re-buyin to cover a next bet scenario, now in for 200 base units. 8-Col or 256 balls in a bag analogy, I wasn't getting anywhere with it. Horizontal fails, Column BO's few and far between, I'll be honest it was total shit.

    6 shoes in, I'm still fucking negative, between 60~80 base units, 8-Col-AM4 not too bad, but these are base units, my higher value strings were losing hand over fist. My head was telling me this is bad, very bad indeed, negativity feeds negativity.

    The 12 bankers in a row bonus now stands at over £6500, some Chinese woman hit 11 Bankers, fuck me, she was a bit clueless, never put out a £1k bet on the Player or hedged the Tie, still she got a £500 bonus for the 11 Banco's.

    Seventh shoe, I revert back to using 7 columns, bit difficult using 8Col-AM4 using columns of 7, but did give it a try, too complex on the fly, so reverted to 7Col-AM3, which didn't perform so well, it never does. Then I realised why, 3 streaks occur 12.5% of the time, 4 streaks 6.25% of the time, massive difference in expectation. I threw literally everything at the supplementary bet option, including triggering of the first decision of a column and betting double zig-zag down the column until a win, that was utter shit too, LLLLW, I then changed that to triple zig-zag, which was better, to say I was run ragged is a bit of an under statement. Far from happy, livid and fuming to be exact.

    Come midnight, I'm getting the suits trying to eye-ball my chip stack, so I kept 100 units in my back pocket, pulling them out when needed. Glares glore, clocking, yeah I received it all. I'm less than 30 units down, been like this for the last few hours. My biggest issue was I had lost confidence in what I was doing, so when it came to betting say 6 or more higher value chips I was reluctant, it was a massive grind, which just dragged things out even more. I've lost in the past, you get hit, quick death, go home to lick your wounds, this was prolonged fucking torture, and despite the ending one of the worst sessions I've endured.

    Over 12 shoes played and I'm still fucking down, another reason why I didn't re-buyin and conclude things either way, is that would have meant opening one of those sealed bags the casino hand out, which I was trying to avoid, I had a few of those on me, nar fuck that, they stayed where they are, this is how you jeopardize a BR and my confidence was rock bottom.

    At one stage during the evening I'm sitting at a table minimum £10 table, not long before the few players have lost and leave, which just leaves me waiting for my soon to be triggers to manifest. they can fuck off, no-way am I betting £10 per hand just to keep the shoe moving. I thought about running The Star progression, but after my earlier experience when I arrived and was the only player, I thought better of it. The other table was full, so I had a bite to eat and sat there for at least 30 minutes "don't do what the casino, want or expect you to do". Finally other players would roll up and roll out and I won the vast majority of my trigger bets which was a buzz as they realised they couldn't conquer my patience.

    Not sure exactly when, a quick chip count had me up just over 20 units, despite the long marathon 15 hour session, I still felt alert and sharp, the utter frustration was fucking me more than anything else. As most of the profit comes playing the first half of a given shoe, decided to play one more, I've loosen up just a little bit, first bet at the higher unit level 2 units instead of 1, a few wins and a gratefully received couple of Tie wins and I chip up and cash out. I would have been contented with a 40 base unit profit, but I've been around the block too many times trying to win those last final chips, I left +37 "base". It was a God damn awful 15 hour 15 shoe shit-fest, having to put up with fucking dealers pulling the cards like they are dealing blackjack bang bang bang and tables of old Chinese women shout at each other when they are sat right next to somebody, combined with me pissed of as fuck because everything I've done thus far has failed, not a pleasant cocktail. Because I was losing most of the night, I end up taking pursuing single BO's, which is a big no-no, but I need to recoup, what do you do??

    128 balls in a bag vs 256 balls in a bag, should be a no brainier right, one would think so. I can't get my head around why it isn't. Well actually I probably can, as pennies drop typing this. Horizontally nemesis patterns less definable that is a given, always expect a single failure point, hardly ever two failure points. . Column fails far fewer and here lies the conundrum. Yes I know it's a bit silly risking a potential 7 losing bets just to win 1 bet which is why I don't do that, even with a 7 Column, i don't risk 6 losing bets for a single win. Even deploying 2 bet levels, so virtual losses are needed. Due to waiting on virtual losses and using the 256 balls in a bag analogy, BO's just ain't happening with a greater frequency as 7-cols. If I reduce the number of virtual loss wait time, I expose myself to greater risk of actually losing 7iar. Hmmm this is why I find it beneficial opening up of forums, why you start typing this stuff, it also makes you think and realise.

    A loss was avoided, a small gain achieved, I need to re-energise and re-evaluate. While washing my hands I thought about talking a snap of my hand full of pinks to solely post for my number one troll, mentally challenged couldn't be dealing with that.
     
  17. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Always look for ward to the latest installments of the john-O greatest hit, bulls-shits and talls-tale pile high and deep. Glad I stoock up on the Guinness and cashew. And wow, so first half of a shoe gonna be more profitable than the back half???? Who knew, hey hey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  18. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Well logically if you're in profit in the first half you don't have to play the the second half or the rest of the shoe. And if you're not in the profit in the first half, the second half will be recovering losses so logically on average it has to be less profitable in net terms (which is different to the amount won, he never said he wins more, just referring to profitability).
     
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  19. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    ""It's far too easy to skip losing sessions and give everybody the impression that my Baccarat prowess is second to none""

    Very well written sir,,,

    Thanks for the detailed report, its just a raw report of the struggles both mental and physical that are so much a TRUE part of this game. I enjoy reading even though it's cringy .... As a fellow casino daily and bacarat player :) ..
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2022
  20. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    That's due to you not understanding ABR as I don't want unwashed fifth infecting my private web-site with childish stammers of "hey hey.

    Admin why don't ya stick your site rules up your ass, everybody can see you are a bunch of ultimate control freaks.

    Any-ways I'm just back from another very long session, trip report later on
     

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