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Baccarat Progressions

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. stephen

    stephen Active Member

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    Personally, I flat bet to win 4 units with a bankroll of 8 units. Some pros prefer to win 3 units flat betting with a bankroll of 5 units.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2019
  2. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    It would surprise me if most players who were playing attempting to make some kind of regular income did not at least start with flat betting and then adapt as they go along.
    The shoe I posted above with the 33 Banker vs 21 Player was easy enough to map. My W/L stats would have ended with 22 wins and 7 losses however it's fair to say that some players could have still encountered problems early on using a progression if they read the shoe wrong.

    It started....

    P
    B
    P
    B (chopping)
    B (maybe a run of B)
    P
    B (back to chops)
    B
    B (3 B's according to Renzoni is a streak)
    P
    P (is P catching up)
    B
    B (ok, could be terrible 2's)
    B
    B
    B (no it's streaking B but you have already had 5 of them)

    So it's never easy and especially if you are looking to bet every hand and think a progression will cover for your mistakes (especially a negative one because ask yourself is the reward of what is usually a 1 unit gain worth the effort)

    Now to be fair, as this particular shoe went forward, it got much easier to predict even at a pretty basic level but by that time, what frame of mind is the player in?

    Start slowly would be my advice. Look for recurring characteristics which can be dominant for a lot of the shoe. When you are guessing correctly, then you can use any one of a number of positive progressions which can only ever cost you 1 unit as a starter to dip your toe in the water. Could be something like the G3M1, Mongoose or even just a basic parlay attempt.

    Anything negative can get you into trouble quickly. I have tested a lot of them throughout the years and even the most conservative negative progressions like the Divisor or the GR8Player progression can quickly escalate to where it could affect your decisions/play if you are not careful.
    Trying to make things as stress free on your nerves and bankroll is the way to go even if it takes time and patience.
     
    cleaningwindows and Jimske like this.
  3. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    Progressions DON'T WORK, NEVER HAVE WORKED, and NEVER WILL WORK. END OF STORY!!
     
  4. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Negative progressions are a bit of an illusion. If you can manage to win half or close to half of your hands they can work out but that is often impossible. ITLR it's like flat betting the average bet size of your progression. If you're betting a lot of hands you should get a higher shoe win rate with a progression but have to expect to take a bigger hit on the losing shoes.

    To make the prog work I think you got to develop a curve to establish both stop and win loss. Because there is a relationship between the aaverages. Example: Win 70% of shoes with average win of 5 units per shoe. That's a profit of 35 units. So stop loss of 10 units per shoe on 30% of shoes will give profit of 5 units for 10 shoes. Same goes for stop win.

    Takes a lot of work to figure out. Here's one I did a while back. This graph includes the estimated stops already determined! So you see we know where our stop loss/win should occur. Represents approx.11,000 bets and a win of 3.69 units net. upload_2019-3-17_13-8-27.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2019
    eugene likes this.
  5. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Good thread Jim!

    Imo the only way to be certain we are playing with an advantage is by flat betting, meaning we simply must find EV+ spots.
    Naturally a winning FB player knows very well how his/her random walk works either in the good and in the bad.
    Sh.it happens even when playing with an advantage, of course losing streaks will be shorter than winning ones, more clustered than chopped etc. Anyway some hard times are around the corner.

    A general thing to remember (imho) is that some shoes are not playable at all.

    as.
     
  6. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    So the issue as you see it is NOT that progressive betting can't win? It's that we cannot know if it wins without identifying EV+ spots because progressive betting obscures said spots?

    Non playable shoes implies that there exists a condition or conditions that can be defined as positive EV spot(s)?
     
  7. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Progressive betting could only work whether we're playing a random walk game featuring very low deviations in a way or another.
    If we're not playing EV+ spots, we are directly falling into the misconception that the game may be controlled by raising our wagers into an "unknown field".

    Spotting EV+ situations alone won't do the job as the variance will pose a serious treat. Remember bj counters who can be easily losers for 5-6 months despite of their math advantage.
    Are we going to be better than them by playing a no math advantaged game?

    Thinking along those bj lines, is any serious bj player willing to stay at a table where the count is negative hoping to get a positive reversal on the same shoe?

    as.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2019

  8. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Quite true IF you interpret progressive betting as a static linear mechanism.
    Yup.
    Irrelevant since the counter knows when the shoe becomes unviable and quits - or sits and pays rent giving away a half point.

    I once lost 12 out of 15 EV+ hands. But in certain games BJ counters can only expect 8 EV+ hands per hundred. At least they can identify a + situation! It begs the question. Can an EV+ condition be identified in Baccarat? No, therefore, yes, progressive bettors and FB also bet into an "unknown field."

    I agree that for most FB and few hands probably easiest with less stress.
     
  9. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Of course the game can't be controlled by raising wagers. Nor can it be controlled by FB. But I'm not talking here about employing static linear progressions. Progressions both pos and neg are just tools to use in a game where there are no identifiable EV+ spots.

    That depends oon how many EV + spots can be identified. In BJ most shoe game provide about 8 per hundred. So it's all relative.

    That's a non-sequitur. A counter knows when there is no possibility of pos spots appearing so he either quits or pays rent until the possibility arises again.
     
  10. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Already replied twice but didn't take so I'll try again!

    Are we playing EV + spots? I'm not. Are you? Let's get that out of the way and everything else is pretty simple.

    If we consider a static linear progression betting into an "unknown field" then we got no disagreement - UNLESS we have a very large min to max bet. I'm not advocating such when I speak of progressions. Increasing wagers on both lose and win situations are just tools in the toolbox.

    If we have identifiable EV+ spots then progressions won't win more itlr but won't win less either. It will all be relative to simple ROI.

    The bj analogy is a non-sequitur since the bj player knows when there is no opportunity for the count to go to his favor. So he either quits or sits and pays rent. Bacc players could do the same thing if they could identify EV+ spots.
     
  11. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    The aim of any no math edge game is pretty simple: trying to be ahead of just 1 unit per any given series of bets.
    Everything different from that will go to casino's favor with 1 billion accuracy.

    We can't expect to win many bets if any wager will provide us a constant math 98.96% or 98.76% return of the money wagered.

    It's far better to try to win just $1000 betting yellow chips than trying to win $1000 by wagering $100 or $200 or $500 chips.

    Nobody would be thrilled to know how to win on average just one unit after 3-4 or more shoes dealt.

    They should.

    as.
     
  12. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Came across the original chart showing unit per shoe so I thought I'd post it. So this represents 3.69 units per shoe average win. Mechanical placement.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Mar 20, 2019
  13. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'm not buying it. "Try" above is the fly in the pie!

    Whether one is betting 1 unit of $1000 one time and quit or $500 unit many times doesn't change the math. Still going to lose more hands than win itlr. Unless one KNOWS how to win more hands than lose it's all the same. If one does know than one should know the % win. For instance I know I won (past tense) 53% of last almost 4000 live bets. Maybe that number will come down to the EV.

    The only way what your saying works is if you or anyone can get a VERY high win rate. Something in the order of 75%+. There's no magic in betting just a couple hands per shoe unless you can improve your strike rate astronomically. And if you can than neg and pos progression will only help in terms of $ per hour played.

    What is your strike rate?
     
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  14. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    The important question is even with an EV that is 0%, people still won't win. Remember, its the "Human Factor" that is extremely difficult to master.Everything can look good on paper but in real casino action, one cannot master the situation.
    The only plan that worked for me so far is to make it simple. Play a negative progression ( one that gave you a win even with more X losses ). Hit and Run and begin a totally new chart. Pre - determine a trigger and see how the hands are doing after the trigger and decide to go with or against. The beauty of this is NO indecision in choosing B or P, No indecision in Bet amount, and No indecision when to Bet.

    The scenario of this kind of gambling is move 5 steps forward (winning) and take 4 steps back (losing). The beauty of this kind of approach is losses are "setbacks". They CAN"T and WON"T sustain EVEN with a negative EV. The Math won't allow it cos' the probability ( in the high 90% range ) is too much to overcome.

    The strongest "weapon" against the Casino is PROBABILITY and HIT & RUN. it will produce small wins but slowly and surely.

    I urge everybody to try out everyday on a simulator and tabulate the results whether this approach makes sense. If you are NOT interested in small and slow wins, then PUT THE WORD GAMBLE back into your approach.
     
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  15. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Here's the point.

    as.
     
  16. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Use live data for practice. Progressions don't necessarily mean one is swinging for the fences.
     
  17. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Actually ya got it wrong. the 124 is positive so yer only ever risking one unit of yer own cake. I been eyeballing this style and it does seem better than the gutting style, hey hey.
     
  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Haha, I've only just seen this, some of us struggle to get a job LOL

    With the minimum wage in the UK, you should do better at the Bacc' tables if you have the money and discipline. But easier said than done.

    Personally I think it comes more down to the individual than any progression or bet selection. Factors would be, determination, control, realism, patience, all those attributes. Bet selection and money management are merely tools, it is up to you how you are going to use them. When a BS is not working, you rely on your MM to control the bet escalation, don't get in too deep, yet you still need to grind yourself out of a hole and back to profit. That requires patience and control, even the seasoned veterans can struggle with that based on current session duration.

    There is no perfect progression, just like there is no perfect bet selection, it comes down to the individual (again), how you mentally handle what is being thrown at you. Christ, even I struggle with that aspect. I think the more emotionally invested you become with a methodology, the faster the frustration can manifest when things don't work out, even if you know they will do so in the long run.

    Yes, usually after you learn that progressions can burn you in the ass, so then gravitate towards Oscar, or Star. I feel flat betting will only work if you are betting a lot of hands, so it provides lots of opportunity to recoup, whereas not betting many hands like I do, lose 5 bets, and how you going to get back, especially as you don't know how the next shoe will pan out.

    I've been playing for over a decade, tons of table experience, yet even I struggle with MM and control, when really there is zero need for it to happen. As an example, I can "on paper at least", handle any number of losses in a row, 8 ~ 10 whatever. Simply by distributing and breaking up the last losing bet value(s) into multiple / new strings. But do I do this, like fuck I do. My MM is loosely based on a Labby, once you are in trouble, any LLW runs don't do you any favours, you are still haemorrhaging units, unlike the Fibonacci.

    Lose a few bets at 6 or 8 units, instead of splitting those values, I'll simply add them to a string and bet more next time around. Which can go either 1 of 2 ways. When that doesn't work, you beat yourself up, asking "why did I do that", "I better than this", then you're on a slippery slope. Which in itself, harks back to self control, discipline and patience.

    The perfect example why I steer clear of all this nonsense in my view, it's bad enough controlling discipline as it is, I can do without more added frustration of guessing wrong based on what I'm seeing on the score board. Usual stuff, shoe has ben choppy for say 20 hands, P hits a streak, so you jump on the double Banker which doesn't happen, then you get a few hands of 2-1's, the odd double, aggrrhh, fuck that.

    IF you are going to play this way, I'd still bet mechanical, switching between OLD and FLD triggering off the 3rd or 4th line.

    Pattern Capturing!!! Doesn't matter if a shoe is producing odd chops, occasional 2-1's, 2 series, you win them all within a small tight series of bets, but I simply can't bring myself to play this way any more, rather can do without the headache and focus more on my next bet size. I much prefer to use templates (columns) which will return a win against all those patterns regardless, no guesswork, while accepting they still have their nemesis. Again, that is not a problem, the problem arises when whatever the nemesis pattern is, arrives back to back. Then you begin to look at the expected frequency of that nemesis and explore ways to reduce it's likelihood even further.

    But yeah, then it comes back to the progression (flat vs negative vs positive), which brings my two pence worth to this thread, back on topic.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2019
  19. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    so what is your solution to this problem? your gut and flat betting? negative progressions don't attract it for me and flat betting i can't win there
    in a negative EV game needs to be a positive progression IMO and the reason for that is an example in Winpoker 6 9/6 jacks or better and FPDW100.75 BOTH lost 20,000 credits however DW won back his 20k and went on to win forever while 9/6 entered that continuous downward spiral of hell and using a negative system would quicken anyone demise i know its 2 different games VP and baccarat but the EV is all we have and it needs to be "siting there" for us to capture it...
     
  20. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    No I didn't. 124 UAYW (up as you win as I stated)
     

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