Baccarat Progressions

i ran a test on my worst of 4 shoes from the other night using Junket king's fibo with regression post and the lanky divisor posted here// that shoe had a record of 21W and 31L with my bet selection

maybe i didnt follow JK post exactly 100% but i tried, i didnt have to use regresion or labby as i won my last big bets of 34 units, if i wouldve lost that i wouldve regress/labby etc, i also decided to start at 2 units as my base units are $20 ($10*2), so its 2,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 modified fibo
i got as low as -41 on two occasions in the shoe using the fibo regre, highest was plus 19 at end of shoe, playing this live i wouldve probably exited the shoe at hand 54,55, or 56 (+8,+13,+16) as i dont like to enter new strings of betting after hand 60 normally but sometimes after hand 54, because i dont like to take my betting to a new shoe, as my bet selection attacks the shoe individually///but it prob wouldnt matter/// gain i believe that any bet selection can work its about money and bet management....

and the divisor program, i did two ways, regular and aggresive, the aggresive one surprised me for such a terrible shoe, if i read it right i ended up -2, i wish i could put ties in as it gets confusing so hopefully i didnt make mistakes inputting the WL strings, if i made an error on this excel spreadsheet let me know, first time i used it

original shoe i won 8 units but was as low as -20 units and had one 16 unit bet and 4 10 unit bets along the way///shoe had a record of 21W and 31L

thank you everyone for posting your ideas and spreadsheets

 

interesting thanks for posting

do you record and save your shoes in B/P format?
i would like to take a look at them using my bet selection, but i replay the shoe using B/P ties dont matter but i track just to keep in line with the hand# of shoe, thanks, if you do give me your best and worst shoe..... after i play later today if im not zombied out ill play them and post results..thanks, if u dont have that i can use my MM just using your W/L registry... but it will be your selection ...

 

Thanks Jacob for taking the time to do some testing with the Divisor. I have never got around to playing/testing with the aggressive version just yet. You didn't make any mistakes. A couple of L sequences and those bets can start to creep up.

 

eugene

just finished testing your shoe out of curiosity with two methods with my bet selection

my mm method ended up -6, and JK fibo regre post method ended up plus 7 after 42 hands

hope thats what your shoe looked like minus ties as that is what i based the bet selections on, thanks

jks fibo regres continues to impress me, and i think my MM method wouldve rebounded if i had all shoe/// maybe

 

Good thing that ya had the balls to come over the top makin those 34 units bets to back up yer play, hey hey.

 

JACOB, I CAN SHARE my bets no problem, but they are recorded in my understanding and if I post them here I need to give you also instructions on how to read them. I use the numeric systems, like 1 and 2. 1 I write when I bet on player and 2 I write when I bet on the banker. So my play recording looks like that:

1L Bet player and lose means the result is a banker

2W Bet banker win means the result is a banker
1W Bet player win means the result is a Player

2L Bet banker lost means the result is a Player

My worse shoe so far:

2 L
1 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
2 L
1 L
2 W
2 W
2 W
1 W
2 L
2 L
1 L
1 L
2 W
1 L
1 L
1 L
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 L
2 W
1 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 L
2 W
2 W
1 W
2 L
1 L
1 W
2 L
2 L
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 L
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 L
2 L
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
1 W
2 L
1 L

Also, look at the screenshot, I do not like this shoe also. (That is just random screenshot for practice)

 

Eugene, as far I go I understand that there are some bad shoes which I can lose also, so the main question is how much bankroll do I need to survive the worse shoe?
How many shoes do i need to play that to recover?
How to manage the shoe that to win at least 49% of all results (like 60 games win 29 lose 31)
Any thoughts?

 

thanks ill test later and post

 

this was my best shoe of 4 the other night 32 W / 23 L

original played i quit at hand 58 plus 13 units, highest bet plus 4, lowest point -1

JK fibo regres was plus 27 at hand 58 and finished shoe at +36 at hand 72, highest bet 8, lowest point -2, still no regresion on labby needed

lanky spreadshheet both aggressive and normal finished up at about +13 at hand 72 and were about +10 each at hand 58, easy shoe with highest bet being plus 2 on both sheets

everything is attached

thanks all

 

yeah that was the plan go to the 8th level on fibo per JKs post, this is just back test and havent played this live yet, bu i regularly make 30-40 unit bets with my current MM/selection

if i would've busted that i would have to reread the post and do the regression/labby part

 

If you reach the 34u bet or worst, you can step back 3 times. Assuming you won the 34u bet, you are only a few more losses away from being busted.

The 34u win, cancels the prior 21u and 13u losses. So you can attempt to recover the lost 8u bet, win that step down 1 more time, bet 5u, if you win repeat the 5u bet or step down once more. It gets a bit puzzling were you are exactly in the progression, you can either run a count (I do this on a separate score card), counting down my goal to zero (once reached start again), or simply cross out lost bets as they are recouped.

The problem with all these common progressions, is you never know when a bad run it going to hit, you snare a single win, followed by more losses, then you're toast.

 

Hello BeJustRich,

To be properly funded, you are going to require between 200-300 units just in case a few really bad shoes come along. Now on saying that, there is also nothing wrong IMO adopting a hit and run approach with a much smaller bankroll. A bit like you turning your 20 units into 90. But for sure, the danger there is you hit one very bad shoe and you feel that all your good work is wasted.

One thing to take into account with the Divisor is that it really is a grind and not as explosive as some of the other progressions out there. You could be playing a few hours and just treading water. For example, I ran your shoe above through the Divisor with a 6/4 target and there were 5 more losses than wins with an end result of -2 for the Divisor. (highest bet of 2) So that was a real grind and you will also notice on the spreadsheet that sometimes even though you end a 'session' that it returns 0 by playing it the 6/4 way. Take the first 4 results of LL WW and it's a 0 return playing it on the 6/4 and a 1 unit return playing it on the 6/6.

If things are running bad, you have to make adjustments via the safety break. How and when you do that is up to your own comfort level.
Stephen suggested that you could abandon the Divisor when you reach 25 units and start all over again. My personal opinion is that that's too early and if you are going to do that, wait until you are 50 units in the whole.

Ultimately, you have to know your own game. The Divisor is well suited to my game because I don't as a rule bet on every hand and my results tend to mostly stay on an even keel. If someone were to play every hand and with a fixed bet selection, then in all honesty, they are opening themselves up to some extreme variance at times and therefore maybe the Divisor isn't the best progression for them and they need to look for a different style but it is going to require a much larger bankroll and balls of steel.

 

Hello!

I have downloaded the file but I cannot run it in my Chromebook.
Your help will be highly appreciated.

 

It is an excel file. Also, the link may be expired.

 

Thank you Eugene,

My game is completely random betting on every hand by trying to reach two targets during the shoe:
1. 5u win
2. Equal win/loss in the end. (means I want to win and lose the same amount of games to be like as close as possible 50-50)

At this moment I reached 170u bankroll. Still not increasing my units. I have time and patience to continue low bets, later, of course, I will increase to make things grow faster. The total risk just 20GBP + my expensive time.

My game starts like this, (i can share with you guys)
1. I go to the website or random number generator.
2. I generate 70 numbers 1 and 2.
3. I play baccarat by betting 1 for player 2 for banker by following numbers generated by random.
(111122221212 = bets on PLAYER,PLAYER,PLAYER,PLAYER, BANKER,BANKER,BANKER,BANKER,PLAYER,BANKER,PLAYER,BANKER no matter what i stick to it)
4. After playing 500hands I did tests already....by flat bet result is +30 -30 and in the end is 0.

If anyone interested you can try this way. But sometimes you can get bad shoe...but that is very rare.

 

So true, the Divisor , also my string method should if you're disciplined enough control the drawdown for bad shoes. Discipline in the heat of battle is another matter, especially if you have a sizeable BR behind you. Fell into to last night, dropping about 50u in one shoe, implementing a gear change and not backing off. Took me another 4 or 5 shoes to recoup from that lapse of discipline. A bad aspect of my game.

Now this is what folk should be aiming for, not losing too much against bad shoes. Good shoes takes care of themselves, near enough breaking even against difficult shoes.

Aye, either just be a little bit more aggressive, or perform a chip value change.

Maybe be able to circuvent that, by having a mechanical switch between FLD and OLD. Sure you will get caught on occasions by making the switch, which won't happen all the time. If this Divisor technique can control bets, who knows its potential.

So what is your worst case for "losses in a row"??

 

I will send you the worse ever i got,

Sorry for long post:

L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L

This killed me completely (i did play my method before and this is multiple shoes)

 

Yeah, not too good. So far it appears that JK 7 column best when it comes to reduce LIAR! Why doesn't he play it exclusively? LOL, Not enough patience! Can't blame him. Playing average 9 times a shoe and sometimes only getting 4 bets and then once in awhile losing. "It's a grind,baby."

 

I'd give up the strategy. Reminds me of once dabbling with playing a shoe the direct opposite of the previous shoe. Grreat at times, but all it takes is one little section which repeats, and it you are using a negative progression, ouch.

If you posses the patience of a monk, 9 columns in the limited shoes tested was showing a 67% W v's L strike rate, but you're only betting less that 5 times per shoe (some shoes zero bets) and is totally unreasonable to sit around waiting for a bet opportunity unless you have a decent BR and are betting £500 units. I couldn't stomach 8 col's never mind 9.

The thing about my 7Col, if you play that exclusively, with each Row loss, the bets escalate, if you tap in something else and win elsewhere, then you can recoup the prior Row loss, so next time around, the Row bet kicks in it doesn't need to keep on progressing which has proven to be a death knell on occasions. While on the subject, I think I have an option for handling Column failures, when I get time to evaluate it properly and think about Row failures too, I will be in touch.

 

WELL, what do you think about like this money management?

Starting bankroll let it be 100u (100eur/$/GBP)
Day target 2 shoes by 5 u (means 10% from 100u=10u)betting by 1u
10 days your bankroll 2x to 200u, increasing your bet unit by 2u (20u per day)
10 days your bankroll 2x to 400u, increasing your bet unit by 4-5u (40u per day)
10 days your bankroll 2x to 800u as you were working one month, time for a salary which is -300u.
Starting new month, balance 500
10 days = 1000
20days = 2000
30 days =4000 (salary 2000u)
Starting new month, balance 2000 goes to 4000-8000-16000//// (salary 6000)
Continue with 10,000 and so on....until you will reach table limits.

The question, how hard is to win 2 shoes by 5 units each? (win 5u stop game, go to another new shoe or wait for new shoe)?

I did 2 times this plan, but I reached just 4000 (took out 2000) later lost all.
The second time did not took 2000 and reached 4550 and lost all.
Now as I am using Divisor... I think it is possible that I will complete a 3-months challenge. (before I increased my bets like crazy, betting even 800GBP per hand with negative progression)