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TurboGenius Gambler's Fallacy (absurd ?) Proof II

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by DutchCrown, Dec 11, 2021.

  1. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    @Luckyfella at the end of the video .. which should I focus/explore on
     
  2. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    It has always been my goal to limit and control risk as much as possible when playing roulette. When I watch people in the casino nobody ever does this, nobody ever tries to control the risk, so they end up losing. Control the risk by making the correct bet selections and the wins will take care of themselves. Somebody's always accusing me of being such a conservative player because I got really burned at roulette once. Absolutely positively not true. I never made my first real money bet until I had risk somewhat under control and that took a long time. I'm not a gambler, I hate gambling. I hate risk. So I minimize risk as much as possible and never make a stupid bet. I'm not saying I never make a bad bet selection, I'm saying I never make a stupid bet selection.
     
  3. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    Spike, you are correct.

    The way to win this roulette game is to quantify, assess and manage risk. That's all that's required to gain the positive edge.

    Gamblers tend to believe the way to win is to improve the accuracy of their betselection.
     
  4. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    I am always looking to improve the accuracy of my bet selection, that's how I know when to make the correct bets. The game is all about bet selection.
     
  5. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    Spike, I am opposite.

    I acknowledge that I can't be more accurate than what the math says.

    My entire strategy is based on risk management, that decides what to bet(betselection) and when to bet.

    Perhaps we might be doing the same thing but describing it differently.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
  6. Ordinary_people

    Ordinary_people Active Member

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    Like it
     
  7. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    The math says that you will lose because the house payout is short of what the odds say is fair.
    This means that your "risk management" is destined to lose as well in the long run.

    Sorry, just the facts.
     

  8. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    That's what ignorant gamblers believe that the only way to win is to improve the accuracy of the bet with crude initial condition measurements. Which is logically wrong. Sorry, that's the fact gamblers can't understand.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
  9. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Sorry, but money management/risk management can't turn a negative expectation game into a positive one in the long run.

    It's because you can't multiply a negative number times a positive number and produce a positive outcome.

    However, if you disagree, then you perhaps you can specify an amount that can be multiplied times -5.26% and produce a positive value?
     
  10. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    How many times must I answer your question?

    https://www.gamblingforums.com/thre...o-select-the-repeat.22939/page-22#post-131334

    Do you realise your post has allowed me to keep copy and paste this post all over the forum?
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
  11. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Luckyfella,

    There's nothing in your post that will enable you to escape the inevitable...losing.

    Again, sorry, but money management/risk management can't turn a negative expectation game into a positive one in the long run.
    It's because you can't multiply a negative number times a positive number and produce a positive outcome.
    However, if you disagree, then you perhaps you can specify an amount that can be multiplied times -5.26% and produce a positive value?

    Just posting the facts.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
  12. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    Let's just say you're not smart.
    You're limited to wobbly wheels.
    Enjoy the 200+ no hit drawdowns.
    And busted bankrolls.

    I won't give you airtime after this post. See ya troll.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
  13. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    Yea we get it. Straight up bets pay only 35:1 if you win instead of 37:1. The house edge is fixed and there’s no around this.
    Instead, think of it as a “tax” on your winnings. Casinos are in the business to make money, not to break even. Just like owning a business, you’re there to make a profit, not to break even.
     
  14. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Luckyfella,

    Perhaps you can demonstrate the math that shows "risk assessment" works?

    You know, demonstrate how it overcomes the house edge? You pretend to grasp the math, so show us. :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021

  15. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Wrong again bison breath. They confirm that a likeable condition is still occurring regardless of the next outcome. Up to the point of what just happened, I like the streak and the swarm I'm seeing. You see, I know from experience not all continuing situations end at the point I'm interested in them. There is no consideration or dependency on future forecasting as you have been completely wrong in claiming that it is. When will your brain allow itself to be communicated with? I hate you because you won't listen. I don't give a damn if you have a point to make. Because you won't listen you have your head up your ass. You must keep believing in the allusion that you think you understand. It protects you. You are your own worst enemy. Dumbshits like you can't save anyone.
     
  16. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    MJ doesn't post to save people.

    He has an ego issue.
    He try to look impressive by proving other people wrong.

    He does not hold a math degree.
    He does not qualify to a top university with UCAS 160points.
    His math knowledge is self taught.
    He contradicts himself gambling with crude DS.

    Best to ignore the trolls.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2021
    gizmotron likes this.
  17. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Then I'm close to being right, he's a poser, tripping on the high life.
     
  18. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Are you that guy who plays Captain Obvious in those TV commercials? Because you're always posting the obvious. Of course betting randomly against random outcomes will always make the math be true. Duh. You do not seem capable of looking beyond that, Captain Obvious.
     
  19. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Captain Obvious strikes again. If you can develop a method where you guess the next outcome more often than not you just changed the math. At least admit that and quit stating the obvious over and over and over. But you'll never admit that will you, that somebody can change the math in favor of themselves.
     
  20. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    They do it because they want to piss you off and make you show them exactly what you do. To finally shut them up. But it doesn't work and they keep doing it anyway.
     

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