Las Vegas GF Chat Room

That game affected more than that. BetOnline did a Halloween NFL promo contest, and I'm 12-4 ATS. Big difference between 13-3 and 12-4. Four outcomes left. I probably need to sweep to cash. Possibly 15-5 will do it.

 

Red I just read the thread on AP's you started at VCT. Immediately jumping out at me were these:

1. Obvious to anyone who reads forums is how much kew disagreed with your analyses (something he knows very little about) while trying to steer the conversation into being all about him, as usual. And why is this....why is it that other more "famous" anonymous posters who claim to be successful "AP's" outside of the few wannabee's like AQ, smurger, dgenben etc., have thus far ignored the thread, when everybody knows these people nervously read these forums every spare waking moment they have? BECAUSE LIKE KEW, MOST AP's ARE COMPLETE PHONIES. Almost every local and regular problem gambler visitor believes they're an AP of one type or another simply because they creatively attach whatever value they need out of comps and freebies in order to tell everyone they are winners. Others are simply proven liars like kew, correctly pegged by coach as incapable of ever posting anything truthful.

2. He also predictably could not put up his typical essays without bringing up the two people who intensely inhabit his otherwise tortured, empty head and have exposed his phony online concoction of a life the most: myself and Alan. He truly is the gift that keeps on giving.

3. It is true that someone should get started on making a movie about mickeycrimm's adult life. Most or all of these pontificating forum "AP's" drool when they consider what it would be like doing what he does and has done, knowing what he knows, and being able to articulate common sense devoid of any formal education, where others seriously stumble. And being stuck in one location while making up how they go to different casinos elsewhere from time to time in order to create perception, is something they'd trade out of for mickey's lifestyle in a heartbeat if they had the intelligence and ability.

4. Monkey Poxfather is most threatened by your comments and conclusions because he KNOWS it is an attack on his completely fraudulent forum life.

 

Yeah, my first point was simply to contradict account regarding there are NO reasons for APs to post under their names. That's a pretty indefensible position. Account asked me to name one reason for APs to NOT be anonymous. I think I named a few.

The other post was regarding the idea that sports bettors should all stay anonymous because it'll hurt their bottom lines. Well, no, if you have an established reputation, actually the opposite is true (unless you're some Chinese billionaire trying to take down every sports book in Las Vegas). If you have a reputation, it can work in your favor in terms of getting money down on things. Sometimes it does; sometimes it doesn't. You just have to not let them get a bead on specifically how you're actually doing things.

I'm surprised at how they presume some things about sports betting that are actually the opposite of how things generally work.

I think the majority of people claiming to be "APs" are advantage players, but not actually high stakes gamblers. Nothing wrong with that. They just want to play the role of experts without adding that they are low level experts, so anonymity is necessary for their narratives to maintain the veneer of high stakes gambling.

 

Most forum "AP's" do not win, and only bloviate on these places because they like flapping their tongues about they "obviously win because they're an AP" (jbjb and the like) or they just can't get over how others win who don't proclaim to be AP's. Jealousy over others (ie, non-AP's like me, and even other dishonest "AP's") drives them to post anonymously. Someone as inexperienced in life situations and as gullible as kew think "all AP's win", which is as naive as it sounds. Then, they can make up silly claims like "casino bosses lurk on these forums trying to uncover who the AP's are and where they play" or "we just can't take the chance of being doxxed because our winnings will take a hit".

Truth is, successful AP's ALWAYS go into the commercial end of things, which is why they would have wanted to use their real names all along if they were smart and aware. The rest just hang on in forums until the cows come home, and perpetually fade off into the sunset. Real LV AP's would never bother messing around with the foolishness of forums anyway. Everyone knows that.

 

I wouldn't say always, but it's pretty close. Plus the AP asteroid is on its way -- whether it's 10 years or 20 years, it's on the way. And there's really no way around retinal scans and face recognition for the masses. So it might be wise to use today's expertise to create opportunities for tomorrow.

 

Hmmm....I don't know. Isn't there an annoying "anonymous AP" on these forums who can easily obtain casino win/loss records from execs of anyone he wants, and therefore can easily manipulate the same suits into letting him slide by the upcoming facial scans?

All AP's need to get to know this incomparable Man About Town

 

In general, if you want to see the worst video poker payscales in the house then visit the high roller room. It's not that AP's won't play higher. It's that the opportunities are rare. Ask KJ about the difference in scrutiny from red chip to green chip to black chip. Anytime a house makes a mistake with a high denom machine it gets wiped out quickly. The house gets shown no mercy. That's why the opportunities are rare. The house learns from it's mistakes.

High stakes gambling is not the objective of the AP. Making money is the objective. If there are no opportunities at high stakes then only lower stakes are left.

As far as being a high stakes expert compared to a low stakes expert? The strategy for a game like Full Pay Deuces Wild, a 100.76% game, is the same at $100 denom as it is for 25 cent denom. Has there ever been $100 Deuces? Oh, yeah. Caesars made the mistake of putting in a 3-coin $100 FPDW. It lasted 2 days.

 

Yeah, mickey, I wasn't referring to you. You put plenty of volume through. I mean the guys who spout the AP lines without specifics and are likely playing for very little. People playing at gambling. You're the opposite of a poser. Obviously, with me specifically mentioning a manager following me around to limit my parlay card play at the Stardust to $50 a pop, I'm not pretending to be Billy Walters, either. KewlJ may know the guy I'm talking about, too, as he wound up high management at the Borgata in NJ. I despise when APs post all this jack-of-all-trades idiocy that just shows they're spouting some party line that they are uber knowledgeable about everything.

You can tell when some posters skip the details. Like account was saying he knew many "sharps" who were shut down by sports books. Yeah, sure he does. Name one specific guy shut down where for what. Futures get limited all the time; so do freak show bets like quarters and props, but really restricting those makes sense since anybody who knows any assistant coach would have an enormous edge. Actual regular full-game straight plays rarely result in shut-downs. The last time I personally know someone was shut down in Las Vegas, it was due to quarters totals betting immediately after the NBA started calling all perimeter fouls. He was getting as much as he could down at one book, but it was just a couple thousand a whack. He got shut down at one specific location of one book. All he had to do to circumvent it was go to another of the book's satellites and have someone else do it or go to a different book. Not exactly devastating. And in a couple of weeks the numbers had adjusted.

About five/six years ago, some Chinese programmers were killing it in college hoops and totals for two seasons. They were moving 15 game lines and totals every day by 2-3 points. They didn't get shut down; they just had to abide by the limits.

 

I played some of my higher limit play strategy quite a bit at Atlantis Reno in the early 2000's, on their $10/$25/$100 10/6 ddbp and 10/7/5 dbp machines in their high limit area. I did pretty well on them, but the reason they disappeared was because others did better on them.

AP's typically do not have the bankroll to play at those limits constantly. But just as with the FPDW machine at Caesars where that California tech exec bashed it, the Atlantis machines bit the dust due to several Silicon Valley high stakes gamblers hitting too many jackpots. I have no idea if they identify as AP's, but I would guess not.

 

I didn't know Atlantis had those games at high limit. The Silicon Valley boys were probably just working the comp system with those games but got "over royaled" as they say.

About 2004 a friend and I found quarter Full Pay Joker Spin Poker, 100.6% with a quad promotion at Atlantis. There were 4 machines but we were the only ones playing them. We came and went everyday for about a week and never seen anyone else playing.

But one day I seen a suit watching us. The next day my friend couldn't make it so I was there alone. They changed the game out on the other three machines but left me alone. But when I came back the next day that machine had been changed out too.

Thats the way Atlantis did things back then. They never messed with the players, just changed the game. Their modus operandi was to scrutinize any machine that started getting inordinate action.

 

Thanks Mickey Crimm. I have shared my experiences from playing red chip early in my career to green to black with the accompanying spreads, but am happy to do so again. Not exactly sure how it relates to machine play though.

My first 3 full years, I was a red chip player spreading first $5 and then $10 to $60 and $75 in Atlantic City. That is all my bankroll could support. So, I played the slower weekday times and the same few places that had $5 and $10 games for 3 solid years. I saw and played with the same dealers and pit and it most certainly was obvious to them that I was counting. It had to be. Never received any heat and despite what people think Atlantic City does heat up card counters, just not in the backoff/baring way that Las Vegas does.

Year 4, I began spreading $15 to $100 or $120 as my bankroll grew. By the end of year 4, I was spreading $25 to $150 (green to low black). And THAT is when my problems started. The very same people that didn't give me a second look for 3+ years all of the sudden were starting to care. As we got into year 5, I was spreading $25 to $200. $200 was about half of what I wanted my max bet to eventually be. A card counter makes roughly 1/4 of their max bet an hour and that was my goal to make roughly $100/hr.

I never got there. Not in Atlantic City. Spreading $25 -$200, which was the very same 1-8 spread I had used for 3+ years at red chip levels drew much, much more scrutiny and attention and the countermeasures started occurring regularly. First cutting the decks in half or 50% penetration, followed by a special table limit place card of minimum bet $5, maximum bet $50 that applied only to me. They would pull this card out despite that it was a $25 table (for everyone else). That was my first experience of very different scrutiny at just slight increase in betting levels.

So I up and relocated to Las Vegas and designed a plan of attack specifically for Las Vegas with a larger rotation of games so as not to see the same faces too often. I immediately was able to spread $25 to $400 as I intended, but I experimented through trial and error to see what even larger spreads and max bets I could get away with. Could I spread $50 to $600? $100-$800, which was actually only half the spread, but larger amounts? Well the answer was basically no. Each jump came with more and more scrutiny. I mean I could bet a little more during busier times at the bigger strip locations, but an apples-to-apples comparison....No. Larger amounts drew exponentially more and more scrutiny and heat. So I settled on my $25 to $400 spread ($300 at a few of the smaller places) and successfully played those levels for basically 10+ years. Now post covid and with the issues of this year with data-basing, I have resorted to playing more at the larger places where I can bet more, playing in the shadow of even larger players, but overall, I play less. Not going to say anything more than that.

Now the other thing is the high limit rooms. I experimented with this early on in Vegas as well. A place might offer a $50 or $100 minimum 6 deck game in the high limit room with better rules or occasionally better penetration, than the same $25 minimum game on the main floor. An example would be the same game, but dealer stand soft 17 (S17) in the high limit room and dealer hits soft 17 (H17) ion the main floor. That rule can increase the EV of that game dramatically, so I wanted to play the better game in the high limit room and I could afford to. BUT the problem was in the high limit room there would be a dealer watching, maybe a second dealer at the empty table next to it and 3 pit folks watching, not to mention surveillance which surely kept a closer eye on the high limit game. Playing high limit rooms just wasn't going to be sustainable longevity-wise for the grinder type style I wanted to play, playing for years.

So that is/was my experience. Like I said, I don't know exactly how it relates to machine play, but I can only imagine that just the same, action in the high limit room is going to be hawked and scrutinized much, much greater than action at lower limits on the main floor. And I think that is the point Mickey wanted to make.

 

Mickey, this doesn't apply to you, but give me some feedback on this. I am starting to drift into the mindset that the majority of the APs on these forums are just bullshitting.

I have run into this at academic conferences all the time. I'm not an academic per se, but I know a bit about a couple of specific areas. I am all impressed with people when they are talking about things about which I know little. Reading Malcolm Gladwell comes to mind as an example. But then they engage me on a topic about which I know a lot, and I realize that their take on it is crude and unsophisticated and lacking in nuance or depth. Then the light goes on over my head, and I realize that -- hey -- maybe they are this stupid about everything they discuss, but I'm too stupid to realize it most of the time.

So anyway, that's the feeling I'm getting whenever the usual suspect APs start talking about sports betting. They really don't have any idea what they are talking about, but they present as if they do. It's disturbing because I've known and hung out with civilian gamblers and bookmakers who frankly know and understand more about sports betting than any of the APs I've encountered on these forums. But the APs act as if they have some kind of expertise. It's jarring. Makes me wonder if the majority of them have any expertise in actual APing, of which I know very little.

I mean, some of the shit is almost as bad as Rob with his 68% ATS for two years malarkey. It's that naive. I wind up thinking that the majority of the forum AP schtick is trash.

 

I remember being stunned when Shackleford was pushing a parlay calculator as a good gambling idea. I couldn't believe it. What was shocking was that the civilians I know who've been sports betting for 30 years or the bookmakers I know -- they would have laughed the idea off as asinine. So what threw me was this projection and presumption of expertise by Shackleford. How do you wind up so self-blind when civilians would know better?

 

Weren't you commenting not long ago about having your parlay cards restricted to a $50 bet

 

Nice troll. You're a legend in your own mind. I suspect Shackleford has a much bigger database than you do. I just listened to Roxy Roxborough on GWAE. He made a comment about all the statisticians he employed. But you say it's not math but opinion. So is Roxy stupid or what?

 

I probably should post this at VCT where all parties involved post, but I don't see a place to do so without starting a new thread.

Redietz, I don't know what you are getting so bent out of shape about. There is nobody or at least nobody of consequence that doesn't think/know you are a longtime successful sports handicapper. (is handicapper the right word?)

But that is not what someone like Axelwolf or accountinquestion claims. These guys are advantage players. They will find and play anything at an advantage. Axelwolf isn't even a very big sports fan if at all. His advantage in whatever sports betting he is doing is coming from the bonuses of the online casinos he is playing. Sure he is using some math based strategies for his picks, some things that Shackleford has come up with, but whether these strategies alone make his picks a winning strategy is not the point. It is the bonuses that make his play +EV. For you to say you seriously question whether someone like Axelwolf is really an AP and that is what I read between the lines is ludicrous.

Frankly, I am not sure what your issue is with AiQ, but it is pretty much the same thing. He isn't claiming, at least to my knowledge that he is some great long-term successful sports bettor. I don't know why you feel threatened.

I know there is a guy here, a very small man of a human being, that spends his whole life lying and trying to discredit people like you and I. And sometimes you, like me, feel like we need to prove something. We don't. This guy is a nasty little troll of a human being. He is jealous and bitter. Don't fall for it. Like I said, there is no one of any consequence that doesn't know you are a long-term successful sports bettor.

 

I'm just thankful kew wasn't asked to explain what it's like being watched while trying to get over a bout with diarrhea....

 

STFU Singer. Nobody cares what you have to say or about you BS stories anymore. You are dead as far as relevancy on the forums and in life. You are a complete fossil. Even as an internet troll, which you have been for 20 years, you are a has-been...a dinosaur. Dead to the world.

 

Having talked with Axel, he is an AP quite unlike kew, accountingquestion, and some others, who's posts give us a bit more about their character, beliefs, abilities, lifestyle etc. that they should have.

Axel AP's anything and everything that crosses his desk and path. It's his life. When I asked him why he posts on forums, he identified it as a "guilty pleasure". And there are other aspects about him that garnered my respect.

Alternately of course, we have a clown like AQ, who makes so many ridiculously untrue and "lost in this world" posts that if his "gambling AP" really has any success attached to it, it gets more than wiped out by his global warming alarmist nonsense and other far left wing conspiracy theories.

Kew as an "AP" makes me think of someone who sits on the toilet for long periods of time with constipation. However hard he tries, his "Fetterman mind" just won't ever let him come up with the right or right amount of words to make his points. And it does go hand-in-hand with that disturbing collection of crossed wires he sports up there. Which, getting back on track, easily shows how kew is just another one of those self-proclaimed "LV AP's" with absolutely no outside ability to AP anything else in life. His propensity to lie about everyone and everything has actually reduced whatever BJ value he may or may not possess.

 

Apparently, YOU care. . And let's hope all that stress made you take the incorrect number of blood disease pills!