Misc The VCT Thread!

Proving beyond a doubt that you have no clue about expected value (EV), which is the basis of long-term winning gambling.

EV is based on a mathematical equation. It is amount of money wagered against any advantage (+EV) or disadvantage (-EV). There really is no wiggle room. So Yes, I know exactly what the EV is for the amount of play I do. And yes, given a large enough number of trials, actual results will be very close to that amount ...very close, not exactly, which mine are. If a player's actual results aren't very close to EV then he is doing something wrong. Leaks in game, over-betting advantage, chasing losses...something wrong.

EV can precisely be calculated for all table games as well as machine play. Now something like sports betting and poker is different. EV is not as clear as redeitz is discussing.

But that you have little to no real understanding of EV in regards to the table games you are claiming to play and win, is the very first red flag, that your play reports are nonsense.

 

EV can be used to determine long-term results for random games. That presupposes there are no outside influences corroding the presumed randomness. One lengthy interaction with a slot or video poker machine operating with a non-random chip or a mechanic as a dealer or a rigged auto-shuffler undermines the entire EV presupposition.

Since the Gaming Commission checks machine chips on a ridiculously slow schedule, and since that schedule is not guaranteed to be secret, and since LV is also the demographic center of the magician/mechanic universe, all of the EV presuppositions come with some degree of faith attached.

 

Yeah, welcome to the land of the "APs." I assumed, because this poster does math for a living, that he must have spotted some error in KewlJ's math that I simply hadn't read (KewlJ does post a lot) or I missed because I'm no mathematician. I consult mathematicians when I need to do serious math.

A hundred years of sports reporting, a hundred years of coaches' discussions, hundreds of thousands of references in sports pages going back a hundred years, right up to today. And somehow, the poster missed them or decided that he would start a new way of discussing standings in sports.

One hopes that the poster apologizes for being wrong, you know, like Fonzie. Or that he at least shares his drugs with the rest of us.

iwaswrgn1.flv - YouTube

Yeah, I'm stunned, too. LOL.

I must be completely friggin' wrong. Or not.

iwaswrgn1.flv - YouTube

The scary thing is when posters think they are right about something and don't even bother to look it up. At all. And denigrate others who know what they are talking about.

 

UNKewLyingJ "studies up" enough to try to seem like he actually plays, but he doesn't.

First off, the reality is that

. So, there's really nothing on which to "calculate an expected win." He's a penny ante small timer.

But, if he really did play the way he claims to play, hundreds of thousands of short sessions at a value that might be expected to derive a decent amount of revenue, there's just no way even an intelligent good mathematician with a great memory, let alone a high school dropout with a demonstrated poor memory and proven poor math skills could keep track of an ongoing handle like that absolutely. Without knowing the exact handle, there is no way to calculate the expected win. And THAT (ALL CAPS courtesy of the UNKewl one) is something he didn't think about when he laid out this fictional blackjack story worn smooth through years of use.

Seedvalue on the UNKewl one: you are a very good fictional storyteller lol KJ is a fictional Author masquerading on gambling boards as a sophisticated multi table blackjack savant.

AlanMendelson (R.I.P.) on UNKewlJ’s lying ways: Kewlj you do have a good imagination and a script that you stick to.

In short, just no way even a good player let alone a dunce like UNKewlJ could keep track of his ongoing handle over all those years and all those supposed very short sessions at different average bets, which means no way to take that % expected win and come up with an accurate expected dollar win. Keep in mind that he claims to play unrated, so there's not even any figures he could pull from a host about "What was my handle?" on any given session, let alone hundreds of thousands of sessions at vastly different average bets, over a decade and a half.

UNKewlJ is a person of very low intelligence (his lips move when he reads), very poorly educated, and has demonstrated time and again when he keeps getting caught up in contradictory lies, that he has far from any sort of a disciplined analytical brain. A bum like that could never keep track of his play accurately enough to know what he is supposed to have won.

He's just tossing out a % he read in a book about what he should win, % wise (if he played at all - he does not) but even knowing that % absent knowing his exact handle, he's not going to be able to come up with an expected dollar figure.


Now UNKewlj, get back to those online sources and books where you lifted whatever you know about blackjack, and come back and pretend again that you actually play. You do not.

 

KJ concedes he had a fairly rough life growing up, and was on his own and self-supoorting at 18.

Many in that position would simply give up, believing that the fickle finger of fate had jabbed them in the eye and that they were fucked.

Not him.

Like him or not he has been reasonably successful, especially given what he had at 18: nothing.

I note that KJ is not a bad writer: this to me at least indicates intelligence.

Oh, you say "his lips move when he reads:" what is your basis for that claim?

Did you use your wealth to hire Robert to spy on him?

 

Here are the problems with Mdawgs statement above.

1.) he continues to just flat out lie about me because he has this stupid idea that tearing me down, discrediting me (and other AP's or players that challenge his claims) somehow makes him more credible. The two are completely unrelated.

2.) I am NOT a high school drop out. Nor do I have poor math skills. (nor pacific Islander, homeless male prostitute or any of the other stupid shit he lies about trying to discredit me). Math was my best subject, and I am quite sure my math skills are above average compared to the general population. Now compared to the math heavy guys that make up my fellow AP's, yes I am below average. Most real successful AP's probably come in at or border on genius as far as math. But my math abilities are fine for what I do. Do I envy the abilities of people like Mickeycrimm and wizard? absolutely.

3). His comments about EV concerning blackjack card counting are dead wrong. Blackjack is all about math as all gambling and advantage play is. Calculating EV in blackjack card counting is fairly easy. There is an advantage or disadvantage for every hand based on remaining cards, which we know the make up of by observing the cards already played. That is all card counting is. You bet more in the advantageous or higher +EV situations and less (or nothing) in the -EV situations.

Now to get an absolute true amount of EV for any session, you would need to calculate this EV for every single hand as you go. Nobody does that. Nobody could do that. So we use averages. We know how many times each count occurs on average out of every 100 rounds played (called true count frequencies) and by calculating that I come up with an average that every hand played is worth lets say $2.00. Of course very hand played is NOT worth $2. Some are worth $5 or $6, some worth -$1,50 or -$2.00 or even higher negative amounts at which the player should not even be playing those rounds.

4.) that Mdawg doesn't seem to really know how and why card counting works, really tells you all you need know about his "story". And remember his story started out being about baccarat play, a game degenerate gamblers are drawn to, always thinking there is some "system" when there is not (mathematically). No long-term anyway. Some of the biggest degenerate gamblers are baccarat players. I believe Mdawg switched over to claims of blackjack play (claims that defy the math) specifically to try to upstage me, a mid-level card counter achieving some success using real math and techniques.

And finally, to correct a minor point by MrV. I had a great childhood, for the most part, at least until the last couple year. My father passed away when I was very young and my mother re-married. My stepfather and I got along great. He was a great substitute father. He liked me, I liked him, we liked sports and went camping. We had a good relationship. When my brother came along, more of my stepdads attention went to him, his natural son, especially as my brother started to grow from a baby to a little boy. And that was fine. I was a teenager then and was off doing my own thing with my own friends.

The big turning point in our relationship was when I came out. Like so many gay teens, I had a stepfather that was unaccepting of that. Not abusive, but very unaccepting. On the day I turned 18, he kicked me out. Again, many gay teens face this situation. I just wasn't expecting that. I was leaving a few months later after high school graduation anyway. But I did the best I could. Finished high school, which amounted to about 3 months living in a homeless shelter, graduated and moved away and started my life. So a couple rough months living in the shelter, traveling by public transportation (a couple buses) to school and then to my after school job at the mall and back to the homeless shelter, which made for long days. But it was a couple months. No biggie.

 

As usual, UNKewLyingJ as MaxPen has stated:

Compulsive liar is a fair assessment of what he is. If people go back and look at your last few stories they will see a trend in you always changing the story after you get caught lying.

For years now he's been saying he's won exactly what he expected to win, and now, after thinking about the reality that MDawg pushed into his lying face, he's altering his story.

As far as why he was kicked out of his own home, it had nothing to do with being gay. It had to do with being the annoying gnat (as Keystone and many others have called him) he is. Same reason he's been banned at multiple forums and wholesale ridiculed and chased out of everyplace he posts his lies. He continues to try to tell people what their life stories are and what they should and should not write about.

 

I will repost this post from VCT, because it applies as much here as at VCT. What is this guy posting that is in any way beneficial to anyone. Like me or not, read some of the threads I started here in the blackjack sections sharing some of my experiences and knowledge.

 

Were you looking in the mirror when you wrote this?

 

Nothing like being 8-4 and two games over .500. LOL.

Next time people ask me about APs, I'm just gonna use that line.

"So, Bob, what do you think of AP claims?"

"Well, there was one semi-famous AP, a machine expert. Really good at math, they said. He was on GWAE a half dozen times. He said that an 8-4 sports won/loss record was 'two games over .500.' And I was too dumb to understand it. I guess that about sums it up."

 

See if you can get the name of that machine expert. I'd like to know who he is.

And while you are at it, get the name of that professional sports bettor that kept referring to a 56-31 record as being 25 games over .500.

 

I do not believe that Kewlj and MrV realize how pathetic they come off with their endless meaningless postings. The only people that even respond to them are Mdawg, Rob, Redietz, and the Hobo. I occasionally pop in and try to point out their stupidity.

I know MrV thinks people care what he has to say, but anyone familiar with these forums automatically ignore him. MrV is like that fly that keeps annoying you while laying on the beach, that you just cannot seem to kill. Like I said once before, as soon as you see his name alongside a post it spells SPAM in capital letters. Trust me MrV no one is reading you.

It is hard to imagine how fucked up you must be to post what Kewlj does. That whole feel bad for me gay teen story above is about as pathetic as you could get.

Even if that story was not another compulsive lie concocted from his shorted-out brain waves, no one gives a fuck one way or the other. His endless attempts to remain on these forums as a person that matters to anyone is just another example of how shorted -out his wires are crossed. I cannot help but picture him with that dead stare looking out the window of one of those handicapped vehicles. With that in mind you do have to forgive his stupidity. He obviously is not responsible for his actions.

You would hope that Mdawg and Rob could catch on and stop feeding the mental patient, but it is obvious they have issues also.

Then to top it off you have Redietz and the Hobo always trying to prove who is the smartest gambler of them all. I picture them two like characters in the Wizard of Oz, skipping down the yellow brick road behind Dorothy looking forward to meeting the wizard.

 

LOL

I post for my own pleasure, not yours.,

You don't like it, hit the ignore button.

 

What is funny to me is here is blackhole, banned from the troll forum where it is supposedly impossible to be banned from, so he is over here llike a child on the outside with his face pressed up against the glass, commenting on how other people are irrelevant.

As usual, you can't make this shit up.

 

Nice when these two morons confirm my previous post and don't even realize they did.

 

Oh, there most certainly is "meaning" to our posts.

Fuck off...

 

smurgerburger on UNKewLyingJ: KJ is different because (1) I initially believed him, more or less, and (2) he is imo a complete fraud. I don't mean a liar, I mean a complete fraud, like catfish style. And that is not something you see every day and is really kind of fascinating.

 

I love you too, blackhole.

You heading to LV any time soon? I'm trying to schedule a trip in December with my filmmaker friend. Not sure he can make it -- the strikes messed up everything in the movie industry. You have writers now writing, but actors not acting -- unless they get an exemption -- and people often do both, so pretty mucked-up situation. They shot a teaser to sell a script. If the teaser is picked up and financed (odds 10-1 against, of course), they'll be shooting in LV next year. I get a cameo if the script is picked up. Not sure I want one. I have a face made for radio.

Anyway, if you're heading west anytime soon, I'll try to schedule to buy you a piece of pie.

Girlfriend is going in January with her brother. She'll buy you a steak.

 

Do you and your girlfriend have an open relationship? I'll study up on football so as to strike up good conversation. Then we could take it from there. What say you?

 

Blackie, you shouldn't talk about redietz' sister like that.