Baccarat Flat Betting Possibilities

Cool, thanks, ill check it out)

 

Thanks, seems to work for me for now, but if it starts failing, I'll reevaluate. Have you ever looked into Stetson Bailey foolproof method? Its where you raise bets 1 unit, win or lose, until you reach profit, then reset. Example, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 etc.
Ive done some live testing, but noticed the escalation can get very steep.

 

Once you learn how to play win loss stream, your win rate and breakeven rate will increase.

 

How do my bad choices for bets point to what the next outcome is. It makes no sense.

 

Just write some thoughts.
Inspiration Philip Koetsch

- The highest score for no reversal with 100 trials sample, 17 times.
- Testing 100 samples with 100 trials each, will give us 83 reversals.
- Then the score would be +0 Units.

But if we start with -1 negative and play opposite we will reach +1 with one reversal coming true at +0
This would work playing singles versus series and series versus singles or any other selection.

Now with the Tide strategy and Brian Kayser topic state, they stay until even money if they do not reach win target.
So my question is for how long one side, no matter selection, can stay ahead without one reversal.

On the left side is profit/reversal starting at -1 and on the right, you have how many trails.


+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 12
+1 & 2
+1 & 12
+1 & 2
+1 & 4

+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 2
+1 & 18
+1 & 4
+1 & 2

At last one sample reach one reversal after 3 samples of 100 trails each.
Several times the outcomes reach -1 and struggle to hit +0 and finally +1.

Illustration

You have a single you bet series
You have a series you bet singles

Cheers Patrik

 

So i took a look at your thread and saw this quote

"To refresh your memory, when you see a streak of 4 Players (PPPP) you starting betting banker until you get a win. This is still +EV when flat betting, winning +118 units after commission, max 10 losses in a row.

Is the +118 units the total profits for the 4062 shoes that were tested flat betting?

If so, it doesnt perform very well..its about 1 unit every 40 shoes....only way you can make it work is betting at multiple tables at once so you can increase your units per hour.

Also when you say "flat betting", why are you continually betting after a PPPP event until you have a win? Why arent you betting just 1 unit on banker after every 4 players you see in a row and move onto the next one as a seperate event?

Another thought...if you have the expectation that 4, 5 or 6 players in a row will switch to banker more often then not, why not just use martingale, but making 1 single bet per event?

For example, after the first PPPP event, you bet 1 unit on Banker, if you lose, move onto next PPPP event. Second PPPP shows up bet 2 units on banker, if you lose move onto next PPPP event. Third PPPP shows up bet 4 units, you win and reset.

If odds are stacked in your favor for PPPP to switch to B, then why not capatalize on those odds and increase your one bet every event and resetting after a profit?

Although it would be interesting experiment just to flat bet once per PPPP event on banker and see what happen with higher units.

Again, it seems this will only work well with multiple tables available to place multiples bets per hour and larger unit sizes.

 

Any and all of that would work. You just made the most units by betting as I described. Look at the last 4 decisions and bet accordingly. PPPP bet B. Once you finally get a win you have PPPB so no bet. That made the most money flat betting. You could also stop betting after 4 attempts BPPPPPPPP and abandon the betting This did about as well flat betting.

 

As the topic is of flat bets. I'm going to share a methodology I'm using on my MM. First of all my objective is to gain or lose 2-5 units maximum. I place the first 2 bets with just 0.5 units.
I do this to confirm if the trend is going in my favor or not, if I hit the first 2 I'll raise it to 1 unit because if I lose I'm at 0x0 and if I win I already have 2 units.
And if I still lose with 0.5 if I lose 4 straight I lost only 2 units, then let's assume that I lose 4 and then gain 4 straight there as I'm at 0x0 and in a positive trend I can already go with 1 unit.
Success in your bets!

 

You make it sound too easy.

The odds of that happening is 0.125%, meaning it is 99.875% that it won't happen.

Maths is great like that.

 

Sorry, but you don't understand the idea I posted, it has nothing to do with % hit or method used.
If you play following the trend this is a possible $management, that's all.

 

Thank you for clarifying. Im going to look at some of my live shoe data and see how it pans out.

Had a session yesterday with 2 busts in 1 shoe...happens, but still was up +77 units in the end.

Also, I was looking at some of my old sessions and noticed your Grand Martingale performed pretty well, lost more, but also won more overall. Ill try it in my next session, thanks for the tip.

 

Soz you don't understand, doesn't matter if you follow the trend, flip a coin, stop ~ start, take a toilet break, still 99% against you winning 3 in a row.

 

Very nice. What is your unit size up to now?

 

I been playing with $100 units for a while now...but thats only with my main method.
When I experiment with different methods I usually use $25 chips.

Although when I first started I didn't like placing bets on banker with ez baccarat because the push risk, so i would put insurance bets on dragon that pays 40 to 1... $100 bet, $3 on dragon, $1,600 bet, $40 on dragon etc.

Nowadays, I don't care, those dragon bets were taking away profits, so now I just consider it a tie and rebet the same amount, hoping for another banker.

Another thing I avoid now is casinos with a "collection" policy. Some demand $1 just to place a bet, but if I have 200 bets in my session, I just lost $200 for playing there, cutting into my profits.

Don't get me wrong...in the beginning it was extremely nerve racking putting $800 or $1600 bets out there on the table. It's still nerve racking, but not nearly as bad as it was.

My next challenge is playing the Bailey Foolproof Method live in the casino (maybe sometime this week)...In my testing I have never gone down past 7000 units ($5 units increments starting at $10) and averaged around 45 units per shoe.

It is grueling at times though, taking 5 or 6 shoes to get back into profit, but think its worth experimenting with, I havent seen it fail to bounce back to profit even once.

 

Wow, that's great. You are doing well, then. Stetson Bailey's Foolproof eventually collapses since it is arithmetic rather than geometric. I tried running it just now. Once the bet got above several thousand it never recovered (the bet was like 40,000 at the end). It took thousands of shoes to implode, so it will work until it doesn't.

I did not know what you meant by "collection" before. I have never seen this in baccarat. At the Hard Rock, Biloxi I saw a $5 blackjack table that had a 25 cent collection spot per hand just for the privilege of betting. I mean if you flat bet the minimum, the house edge on that game would be over 5%! Terrible table and it was packed because it was $5.

 

Thanks for running the Foolproof method through your simulation. I only planned to have a hard 7,000 unit cap stop loss and end it if it failed, just an experiment. Thanks for the information on it, thats invaluable.

As for the collections, there are still many casinos in California that force you to pay $1 to make any bet with baccarat. It used to be at many of the casinos in Los Angeles, until one stopped charging it, then all the others followed suit because they knew they would probably lose business otherwise. I have only seen these "collections" in EZ Baccarat, nowhere else, but since its the only game I play, I make a conscious choice to avoid any collection casinos with baccarat. I cant imagine how a $10 bettor would make any money playing at one...

 

The problem with Bailey"s "Foolproof" is that we need more and more WIAR to overcome the losses including commission. Very quickly we begin to need 4WIAR to recoup. Like anything else you can get away with it for qwhile but. . .

 

Unless you have a known edge your W/L stream should be about the same as the P and B stream. So... one could simply pick a bet selection and bet on the W/L stream. The results should about the same ITLR for a 50-50 game. But that's another topic.

 

But my win loss results are not random, which makes them useless. Surely you see that.

 

LOL. Really, you sure about that? What's your WL registry look like? Do they really differ from what one might see in the run lengths results of an average shoe?

I'd guess probably not.