Misc WizardOfVegas Forum is Dying

What makes you think that these millionaires get a fuck what you or your kind think!.

In your professional capacity if the need arose, would you be willing to wash a Black man's balls, or would that be akin to eating a pork sandwich?

 

For close to a year I joined several gambling forums in pursue of actual factual proof of any person or teams of persons making full time un-subsidized livings off advantage playing casino games. I came close to meeting an alleged AP’er in person, but that person didn’t show up.

Of course Ap’ing exists but to what extent is still unknown. The only proof it even exists are press releases of exposed techniques that obviously won’t exist any longer. For example, the meatball Phil Ivey and the edge sorting baccarat play. Or, the AP claims we get to read about on anonymous forums, occasionally, only being backed up by other anonymous alleged AP's.

We know AP’ing BJ pretty much sucks today. Staying under the radar undetected is as hard as finding a decent game. BJ is more of a hobby today then trying to make a living off it. I'm sure some have perfected a snaky way around the BJ obstacles, but safer for fun then counting on feeding the family for most.

I surrender with my personal quest for proof. But, I won’t hesitate to jump in any conversation that comes up about it and remind everyone that without proof it’s just another bullshit story.

 

because when they ask me a question and I give them an answer, they seem to appreciate it.

 

Well they are advantage players and I can't see any advantage in someone proving anything to you. Are they supposed to show you their tax returns(easily faked)? Are they supposed to show you their bank account? Cash? Perhaps you want to follow them around all day?
It's not like they are selling a betting system. Someone could explain what they are playing and where then you could verify the play, math and figure out if it's a real thing however who's going to give you free information like that?



You can say just anonymous AP's however there's been multiple plays where there are more than just a handful of anonymous Advantage Players including non AP's who witness such things. There's been many published promotions over the years where it's obvious that the casinos lost a significant amount to advantage players. It's hard to dispute that.

Just go look at the good 1/2 parlay picks this year you can see that anyone betting them would be up a significant amount. There's been significant changes to hundreds of WH locations because of that.

There's court cases you can research, there are specific amounts in the documents that advantage players were up when they were backroomed.

There's multiple cases with gaming where they have ruled in favor of an advantage player for over a 100k on a single play.

I could easily prove recent significant plays with proof including casino marketing material, math to back up the facts of lucrativeness, pictures, multiple non AP witnesses, win loss statements, and some official documentation. But Why should I? Are you willing to bet 5k?

I suggest that you don't put all all AP's and their claims in the same box. If there's someone specific you believe to be a fraud I implore you to call them out. Just make sure when doing so you're willing to put your money where your moth is. You'll probably come out ahead overall all. Actually no you won't because only non bullshitters will actually accept a bet. Others will back out or put a bunch of caveats on the wager.

I don't be surprised if you are meet with resistance regarding meeting up or discussing AP you seem to be disgruntled.

 

I'm sorry Axel. If you don't mind, I'll just crawl back into my clueless hole.

 

I didn't say you were clueless nor did I want you to crawl anywhere. I do believe there's a significant amount of BS regarding AP and some people's claims.

It's gambling and people love to make untrue claims. It's obvious some people do make a living doing it. There's significantly less people that are actually doing it than people are claiming.
It's only recently become so popular.

 

Pinhole8burns posted an interesting blog a couple of days ago questioning manboy's involvement with Bovada. (Bovada and the wizard). Beached whale didn't like it and banned pinhole. Looks like she couldn't delete the blog. It's still there.

She's been a busy whale today with the half dozen "kitchens for sale posts" that came in. Amateurs still can't figure out the most basic spam blocking methods. Very funny. Hope she didn't hurt her stinky finger banging it down on the ban button all day.

 

Over on BJTF, I kept defending your style as it mirrors my own, and a crossover thread happened on WoV where I was like "KJ knows me from BJTF", not in the sense of knowing me, but knows that I came over from BJTF, and you were like "I have no idea who you are, who is this guy?".

I had just assumed you had a disliking for me at that point with the way your post came off.

Personally I think you're shitting on Hustlers/Vultures a bit too much, and pumping up uncapped progressive hunters a bit too much. Probably because I'm the "Hustler" and you're the "hunter". In reality, I do all things AP, it wouldn't behoove me to ignore anything that could make me a dollar. I've taken down several quarter/dollar uncapped VP machines, but I only do so in the event that they aren't linked, and that they are well beyond my "tight" threshold. The problem with uncapped machines is that they could, indefinitely persist. I could spend a day, month, year working on a particular machine and technically never hit it. Plus, bathroom breaks, all of that aside, I need a MASSIVE bankroll on top of all of this, to only yield a small %. Whereas with what I mainly do, I can do it with a $100 bankroll, and cash out with $300 at the end of the night, night after night, day after day, week after week, and month after month. The RoR is nonexistent, I simply don't lose often, and when I do its less than $10 (usually). I cut out all measures of risk, so that I can streamline the process, and unless I run a progressive down, the income is steady, and losses never happen. If you take out all progressive action I've had in the last 3 or 4 years, I've never lost in a day of "hustling".

The fact of the matter is, while some progressives CAN be worth $250/hr+, most are not. Most aren't even worth $20/hr when you get right down to it year after year. The volatility and variance on the Single Hand progressive VP you run down could last weeks. I know because I've done it, Axel.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I just think you're trying to make your "next level" play as you've claimed, look a hell of a lot better than mine here, and the reality of it is that I take most every +EV shot I see, and I'm experienced enough to know how to prioritize each machine so that I can maximize my daily profits. The difference mainly between us is that I'm not willing to risk large sums of money against little to no guarantee, because time is always of the essence.

You make this claim that some are worth $250/hr, which is true, some are. But the reality of that claim, again, is just an attempt to make your "level" look better than mine. If you made nearly that much and worked as much as you claimed, you'd be bringing home 700k+/yr, and you aren't.

Now, all dick measuring aside, you're absolutely right about where we make our money nowadays coming directly from the casinos. I've mentioned on this forum before about having a really advantageous "21" promotion playing blackjack that was so lucrative we just sat down and played until our eyes fell out of our skulls. Had we known about this promotion earlier in the year, we'd have likely taken all time off to work it 24/7/365, it was just that good.

The money, comes from knowledge and information. Sometimes that information is simply knowing where a machine is. Most of the time its knowing where an advantageous promotion might be. Lets use an example. Casino A has a 25x slotplay multiplier on a specific day this month. Due to the Return Value, that will work out to an 8.25% return on everything wagered, casino wide, and 2.5% on VP. That 2.5% on VP isn't great because the value of the promotion, less the value of proper strategy without yielding a royal, would be at a negative still. Adding in the value for a royal, we barely run positive. Now, if I happen to have a 4 bank of machines with a "capped" community progressive that pays out at $500 (no taxes), and my partner and I both have two cards, two arms, and both have the 25x multiplier, and I know the machines to pay out 95.3% across the bank, what's my value there? For every thousand dollars wagered, I should lose 47 dollars. In the same turn, I should make $82.50 over that $1,000 wagered. Leaving me at a +$35.50/1000, or +$3.55/100, or $.35/10 and $.035/1, or a 3.5% advantage. Now sure, that's only effectively 10.5 cents($3max) per spin on a machine that can spin approximately 16 times per minute. But that works out to .105x16x60/hr per machine, and I'm playing 4 machines between us, or $403.20/hr between two guys.

Now, imagine a scenario where the Base Return Value of a casino's players club is half a percent, which is amazing and basically unheard of, and is the same for Tables, Slots, VP, VBJ, VR, and so forth. Now imagine that casinos gives a 100x multiplier.

You could do damage with such knowledge, yes? What's better, is I can link you to the website of a casino offering that multiplier, and offering that BRV. It wouldn't behoove me to give you that information because its simply far too lucrative to pass up, whether you're a "hustler" or a "VPP Hunter", but simply knowing how to use these promotions against the house is worth more than the play themselves. Which goes to my point that, even though you're making your way out to be better than mine (and you're not completely wrong), simply the knowledge of a machine or promotion's existence is far more valuable than anything, which goes to serve BOTH of our points, Axel. I hope you'll see it in the same light, despite our "play" differences.

Kind of, I dropped his name to vouch that I Had come over fro BJTF, and he was like "I've never met you, I don't know you", and I felt like he took what I was saying the wrong way, as we've had a couple discussions over at BJTF that didn't go nearly the same route. He has always cautioned against his "lifestyle" in how he goes about his play at the casinos, but I was already there living it in my own way, and was defending his stance quite a bit from a similar, albeit smaller fashion.

I've always looked up to KJ as an honest and true grinder, who makes no bones about what he does and what is going on in our industry. He's a straight shooter who doesn't bullshit much, and I admire and respect that. There's that whole other debacle between KJ and another prominent "person" in the industry that caused a small shitstorm for some, but that's a whole other discussion for another time.

What proof do you require that guys like Mickey, Axel, and Myself can do what we claim? That guys like KJ, T3, and Tarzan can do what they claim?

Do you have to see it personally? Do dollar bills and mathematics not suffice? Do you want a picture from inside my personal safe? You aren't Alan Mendelson are you? He made the same commentary over and over.

 

I'll put up the picture and explain the game.



On the payscale you can see three columns, hit, win, progressive. The 7 out of 7 is on a countdown of 1 so the next solid seven will pay the money in the meter. A regular 6 out of 7 pays 200 coins (its a two quarter bet). The countdown on the 6 out of 7 is 16. The next time you hit a 6 out of 7 the countdown will click down to 15. The 6 out of 7 will continue to pay 200 until the countdown gets to 1. Then the next 6 out of 7 will pay the money in the meter.

The countdown for the 5 out of 7 is on 4. So I only need to hit the 5 out of 7 a total of 4 times to get the money in the meter.

The countdown for the 4 out of 7 is on 140. That means the first 139 of them will pay 10 coins and the 140th will pay the money in the meter.

The 3 out of 7 doesn't have a meter It pays 4 coins.

It's a no brainer for me to look for plays with low countdowns....which are created by the ploppies. The only meter in play here is the 5 out of 7 meter. I've been doing keno math for so long I can just pull out my pocket calculator to see where the play is at.

3 out of 7 pays 2 for 1. The frequency is 5.7. So 2/5.7 = .351
4 out of 7 pays 5 for 1. The frequency is 19.16. So 5/19.16 = .261
5 out of 7 pays 11 for 1. The frequency is 115.75. So 11/115.76 = .095%
6 out of 7 pays 100 for 1. The frequency is 1366. So 100/1366 = .073%
7 out of 7 pays 1600 for 1. The frequency is 40979. So 1600/40979 = .039

This total to 81.9%. This will be the return for the first 3 times I hit the 6 out of 7.

Then we figure the payback for when the 5 out of 7 pays 462 ($231). It will show 471%.

We multiply 81.9% by 3 to get 245.7%

We add 245.7 to 471 to get 717.7%

Then we divide 717.7 by 4 to get 179.4%. That's where this play is at.

The frequency of the 5 out of 7 is 115.76 so the expectation is to play 463 games with a 50 cent bet and a return of 179.4%.

So this play is worth $184.

On turbo the game plays at 40 games per minute. So its about a 12 minute play. Boys and Girls.....how do you like that for hourly rate? And exoter thinks my claims are outrageous.

PS. My chances of booking a loser on this play is somewhere between slim and none. You just don't lose on plays like this.

 

I'm sorry Exoter175. If you don't mind, I'll just crawl back into my clueless hole.

 

It isn't my view, but MLG stands for Major League Gaming, and those guys playing make a ton of money via prize pools and sponsorships. The Twitch crowd in a similar vain can aspire to do some of the same.

Would you not consider them professional in their own right?

In other words, without any knowledge of how Keno works, I was exactly right. I guess that proves me, in your eyes, as not a phony, and I've now won our entire argument.

Thanks Mickey, only you could have done this for my career!

*(dripping with so much sarcasm)*

And yes, your claims are still outrageous.

Its probably a black one.

 

In which case I asked you, in your professional capacity would you wash a Black man's balls?

 

I was using examples so Larry could better understand why he casino's don't like machine AP or any AP for that matter. I was not shitting on anyone. Ithe had nothing to do with you(I really have no clue what you do as I said I'm not up to date on bonus hustling or whatever), I was mist telling it how it is. there's table game players that are doing stuff that put everyone to shame and they would laugh at the rest of us. There's guys making a fortune on sports who would laugh as well.

Obviously you can't get non stop machine plays worth hundreds or thousands per hour 24/7. It just doesn't work that way.

 

UIGEA left a loophole for Draftkings. The NFL and politicians are telling people that fantasy sports is not gambling. That is the fricking joke of the century. As Redietz has pointed out, 2% of the people are winning 90% of the money.

The NFL are hypocrites for shunning sports betting.

 

It's not the full equation, Larry. The AP will take the money out the door never to return it to the casino. Joe Blow will blow the money back.

 

Good Lord, Blackhole. Would you please keep your mouth shut. The last thing I want is that exoter and his crew on my fucking tail. I can tell from his writing that the man does know how to figure AP shit out. And I know just exactly what would happen if that crew got to see me in action on my plays, the super good ones, that I've never written about before and won't write about until I'm on my death bed.

Their jaws will drop. They will all be saying

"My frickin' Gawd!!!! Unbelievable!!! Son of a Bitch!!!"

 

No....you either are not remembering correctly, or not conveying correctly or intentionally throwing me under the bus.

First off when I say "I try not to judge" or "it's not my place to judge", I am talking about publicly. Participating on several message boards, just as you do, I often run across posters and posts that are just full of crap. Either claims they are making are false or unrealistic or the experiences that they are portraying are just BS. But I rarely call people out on this. It's just not something I like to do. People can make whatever claims they like on a message board and other people can believe them or not. That is the nature of message boards. On the sites that I am on, relating to AP, I figure most people can figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking. And usually there are other AP's like yourself that are a little quicker and more willing to call out BS...so I don't have to.

Of course one of the few times, I did call out a member, questioning his credibility and calling out his misleading statements, turned into a real debacle for me....or as exoter175 referred to it "a shitstorm". It led to me being barred at one AP site and the feud spilling over to a second AP related site indirectly led to me being barred at that site. So, to me engaging in this calling out activity isn't worth it and is counter-productive to why I participate in the first place.

BUT, just because I don't publicly often call people out as frauds, phony's or just not knowing what they are talking about doesn't mean I don't have an opinion about it. And sometimes I share my opinions with people that I network with or communicate with privately. And this sir, is what you are remembering....and have now brought up....an opinion I told you privately. And now that you have, I guess I will answer for it. (below)

So, Exoter175, I have no idea if you are legit or not. And frankly I don't care. As I have stated, I only care when someone is posting such non-sense, so full of crap as to be misleading and potentially harmful to other members/players. And other members/players are buying the load of crap which will be detrimental to their AP success. You have never posted anything that concerned me enough to question your credibility.

Now what I did tell Axel in private, that he has now revealed, is that I didn't like both at BJTF and upon your arrival at WoV, how you dropped my name (handle) a number times, seemingly to use me as credibility. As I stated at WoV, I can vouch that you came from BJTF, but don't ask me to vouch for your ability or legitimacy as a professional AP....I just have no idea. At BJTF, you were talking mostly blackjack (it is a blackjack forum so that's not surprising). Here you are talking a lot of other forms of AP, mostly different machine plays, which frankly is way out of my field of knowledge, so I wouldn't even attempt to form much of an opinion if someone asked me. I'll leave that to Axel and Mickey and some of the other machine play AP specialists to weigh in on, if they have a desire or need to.

 

Right, but for the sake of being honest and upfront here, we need to give Larry a much better idea, because his is flawed significantly, and yours reads more like a fantasy because you talk so much of potential rather than reality, and Mickey's sounds more like horseshit from up there in Montana. I'm trying to come in between the both of you with a bit of "grounded" reality. Not saying either of you are wrong, hell, Mickey just showed me a play I had no idea about, and now I have to re-invent my wheelhouse just to look for progressive keno accumulators, though I doubt they are only in Montana, as leftover relics from a past long gone, but still, Mickey is absolutely right and the value there. But the likelihood is that machine is rare to get an advantage on, and even slower to "build up" to make it a "day to day" affair. So while his representation of dollars per hour is phenomenal, it isn't a constant.

Hell, I once spun a "mountain" for $.50, knowing I'd win something on it, and ended up with a $472x5 pick. Took me less than a minute to get the machine and wait off the previous player, made something like $2240 after taxes, that's $134,400/hr. I didn't hesitate picking, because I knew exactly where to pick, too. Kind of goes back to the Richie thread, where he talks about my intentionally vague analysis of a machine he loved because it was spot on, this was just another example of knowing more than the competition.

 

Exoter, you trashed me for writing about a current play. Now here you are doing the exact same thing.

 

Awww Mickey, now you've sent my heart aflutter!

I totally understand KJ, and I apologize for it coming off like I was trying to use your for credibility, I really meant it only as a form of verifying on that specific forum that I cam over from BJTF where I had been posting about a subject that was being posted there, and you had already been active in the thread, so I figured it wouldn't hurt. That's my bad, no harm no foul, and as I've stated before at BJTF, if we ever cross paths I owe you a beer, and if not a beer, a steak dinner. Your advice has been the single best bits of insight, knowledge, and reasoning that any future or current AP can ever wish to read and digest. You have such a unique angle on everything, that it often causes controversy, but not on a bad way. Your transparency into APBJ and the ups and downs are a wonderful read, and I hope one day you'll publish a memoir. Nobody that I've ever read or have known of, has ever given such a gritty, raw, openness to what we do like you have, and for that, I've always admired your consistency, passion, and drive.

Again, though, I don't want to drag up the "shitstorm" for the other thing, but I heard bits and pieces of what happened, and I was not thrilled that such a low blow was cast against you by someone who, for a while, was pretty high on my respect list as well, until things started to unravel. I'm sorry you had to go through that, and I hope you don't refrain from your postings, there's way too much value for that information and wisdom to not have a conduit to flow through.