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Baccarat 5 column statistics

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by violater777, Jan 5, 2018.

  1. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    @ chewbaccarat ,

    Thanks for your explanation .



    ND
     
  2. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    Jimske:

    Tell me about this file of shoe results you uploaded. Are they actual casino shoe results or computer generated random results?
     
  3. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    To anyone still following this thread:
    I just completed entering 600 shoes from Jimske's file. Crazy Ivan program: 5337W and 5351L. Essentially 50:50. Based on Jimske's 600 shoes, I would say that the original poster Violator777 had seen no trends which he reported seeing over many years. But based on the 600 Zumma shoes, his trends definitely were supported. Averaging the two shoes gives V777's approach a slight advantage. So I will input FH's gras shoes next and see what happens there. I will keep you posted on what I find. Once those 446 shoes are entered we are approaching a sample size which is trustworthy. See previous post of mine about this.
     
  4. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    To any interested parties in V777's approach:

    I wrote a program testing the best banker trigger bets of V777 and included a minor Stephen Tabone trigger (which was subservient to any V777 bet that came up) and tested the program (called Crazy Ivan) against 1600 shoes (files from 600 Zumma, 600 Jimske and 400 Gras).

    We expect banker to show a win rate of 50.68% and a loss rate of 49.32% based on a Poisson distribution and factoring in the rules of Baccarat (ties ignored). According to the rules of stats, the game of Baccarat requires some 33,944 hands to be evaluated to generate results to a 95% confidence level. Given that Crazy Ivan has an average number of bets of 18 per shoe, this works out to 1886 shoes. I stopped after 1600 shoes and I doubt whether adding on another 286 shoes would skew these results significantly. In fact, I am confident they would not.

    The results: 14,283 wins and 13,874 losses.

    This works out to a 50.73% win rate compared to the expected 50.68% win rate. Let's call that one spot on random. No advantage to V777's triggers or Tabone's trigger.
    Case closed.

    I did learn one thing from watching the numbers accumulate. When the losses come, they come in bunches. I'm talking about 8,9,10 losses in a row. So my advice would be to all Baccarat players to cease betting after 2 losses in a row and resume betting upon a win or maybe a win-win. In this way, you save yourself much pain and frustration when one of "those" shoes comes along and it seems you're losing over and over. It's because you're losing over and over. Also during this testing, I searched for and found many money management systems. Most of them not worth the paper they were written on. One method intrigued me which I shall now apply to the results of this study. This may take me some time as I have to write another program to do this.

    I hope you found my study educational and, perhaps as we increased the sample size to 1600 shoes, not surprising.
    I am open to any questions concerning the results of this study.
    I bid you all a 2018 Merry Christmas. I shall report back once more on the MM I found.
     
    mansi19896 likes this.
  5. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Member

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    Thanks for your analysis. Will wait for your money management method post.
     
    mansi19896 likes this.
  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Browsing the forum, came across this thread. Thought I would chime in as I have access to what was supposedly either a 40k or 1 million shoe test, don't recall.

    Here are the occurrences for columns of 5.

    Capture 5col.JPG
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2019
    Terry Plumb and cps10 like this.
  7. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Member

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    i dont remember the rules anymore, but i played quite a lot, and evantually it still faded back to zero, very difficult with flat betting to stay ahead.
     

  8. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Flat betting will never work...
     
    Terry Plumb likes this.
  9. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Member

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    yeah, but i tried with every possible progression too. very hard and didnt see any profit with it
     
  10. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Didn't you read the MM options thread for rusty?

    Works for me and I'm sure the divisor option would work also, hang on, it already has for somebody...

    Tell me where you live, and I'll come round and clean your house if ya like :mad:

    Do your homework
     
    mansi19896 and eugene like this.
  11. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Member

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    if you mean counting numbers on sides like paroli money management, then yes it failed too. i tried everything theres out there. and flat betting with it seem most safer in long term.
    i dont know, i played months, dont wish do bring your mood down if your winning with it, but if you keep winning for year atleast, maybe i should try again :O i dont know how long is long enough to realise is it long term winner or not.
     
  12. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Mansi1996,


    Junket King might be your better choice than FIVEalive . JK worked his way up to where he is today .




    For recreational purposes only . Play at your own risk .
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2019
    JAMESBANKROLL009 and Junket King like this.
  13. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Member

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    well, i dont know JK personally and have read maybe all he`s topics in this forum. if he meant money management concept for rusty topic, he explained there own money management version he uses, but not system itself, so im not sure we can play like him.
    five and violater here are only one actually who has show some valuable system worth to try by telling its working for 8 years.
     
    Junket King likes this.
  14. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Everything I post are real shoes from my own data.
     

  15. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Member

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    jimske it took quite long time for you to reply into here lol. were you able to play violater method, how things worked out for you ?
     
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure what that is, I suggest you re-read the thread, slowly and understand the concept. What I'm trying to get over to those interested. Having a lousy bet selection is not the problem, it is how much those losing decisions cost you. Don't get in too deep when you're losing, don't keep increasing your bets. If you lose 1 chip, 2 chips, 3 chips, down 6, don't next bet 4 or 5, start grinding those losses back (you could equally have bet 1-2-2).

    Yes.

    Well put, a good friend of mine said to me many years ago, I could explain / show / sit with somebody / let them mirror me, both bet selection~wise and money management and they would still never play like me, simply because they are not me.

    You have to find your own way, if you are expecting step by step instructions, that ain't gonna work. Nobody thinks the same and we all react different to pressure, elation.

    You have to forge your own way, however and I will stress the point, BACCARAT IS A MONEY GAME first and forth-most. There are other aspects, fortitude, composure, discipline, but you have to be comfortable with your staking plan first, without your staking plan worked out, you are doomed to fail, period.

    Run through "what if" scenarios, such as losing 4 or 5 in a row, how would you preserve your bankroll? Secondly decide on a bet selection, there are a few mentioned on the forum I think, if you are still struggling, then consider using templates (again there is discussion here on those, 3 & 6 column options). A friend introduced me to these over 10 years ago, not guaranteed to win, yet rarely fail, then the onus is placed on your MM so you can survive the odd failure here and there, then progress onwards.
     
  17. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I gotta disagree with the john-O on this one, hey hey.
     
  18. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Member

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    well, i prefer exactly step by step system following rules, then you know your not affected by emotions feelings if you decide to play on your senses and instincts only when do bet. Its like automatic gearbox compared to manual.
     
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  19. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Gambling is not and should not be like that, follow something blind and fall off a cliff when things don't work. If you can't think and decide for yourself, best give it up..
     
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  20. bob

    bob New Member

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    Hi mansi, What i have gleaned from experienced members here is, Bet Selection can be auto, $ Management is Manual.
     

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