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Baccarat Baccarat Odds beat with testings

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by BeJustRich, Apr 19, 2020.

  1. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    Dear members,

    As we all having plenty of time to get smarter on games during this closure, I would like to get your opinion or advice regarding tests on some betting systems.

    If the system pass 1000 hands and brings profit can you call it worth to use? Or need to pass 10.000 hands?

    Main question is, how much avarage hands need to test to get acurate result or at least to feel 1,2-1,5% dissadvantage from casino?

    So far I did manually 7000 hands. Not big profit but still profit.

    Cheers!
     
  2. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    1000 hands assuming 75 hands per shoe, is only approx 13 shoes. 10000 hands equates to about 133 shoes.

    Neither are enough.
     
    Natural9 likes this.
  3. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    The day the cat goes to the casino it will be ANOTHER experience.


    Enjoy the testing . What happens at the table what counts .



    Do not bother with winning fiction either , we know the game what it is all about.
     
    AndyCasinoK and Natural9 like this.
  4. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I been testing an anti-streak style buckin up against 16000+ shoe or over 1.2 millions hand and show a profit of just about 2 unit net per shoe. I figure a cat should test against a minimum of 1000 shoe. That's equivalent to about a years worths of fulltimes play. Ya gotta test sufficient not just to show you got a winning style but also to identify the worst case scenario for downdraws so you can have the bankroll and balls to handle the inevitable shorts terms adversity when yer play at mortars and bricks for real cake, hey hey.
     
    Trainer and Punkcity like this.
  5. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    Soxfan,

    Thank you for opinion. First at all I test only real shoes. Not pc generated.
    So I take picture of whole shoe once cutting card is out and the play it on Excel manually.
    At this moment I am having collection of 150shoes (around 10.000hands).
    Regarding test of course i am not stupid to use something basic. But even later I analyse every shoe how much max each of them produces and how much avarage losing. To find the way for stop loss and stop win as a target. So in general I never lose my bankroll anymore. I can lose only shoe or win the shoe.
    So What i need to know what to use to win more shoes than lose them. Or win a bit more than lose.
     
  6. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    You are good at Math LOL ;)
     
  7. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    sox fan,


    Then why do so many Bac players loser their fortunes ? Like one good player said here on one of the four ms that baccarat is a game one plays by the seat of your pants .

    ...................and with your long time experience know that as well.
     

  8. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Firstly, most cats lose cuz they ain't got a true winning style of play. But most cats will lose even if they have a winning style. Most cats won't even put in the time to test sufficient and correct. Most cats will lose cuz they don;t have the balls, bankroll or intestinal fortitudes to hand the INEVITABLE shorts terms adversity at the table. That's why cats whine like little bitches, wetting themselves in fears over short term progression busts, and downdraw even though if they just bulldog there way through they can capture so many units profits per shoe, hey hey.
     
    Mako, Trainer, Punkcity and 1 other person like this.
  9. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    Honestly i did not got what you are talking about (who is this person?)

    People are losing not because of odds. But because of lack of discipline and self control. When they are lossing they start to increase bets and act agressive against the game and this couse a destruction.
    This game is 50-50 and if you lost a Unit it is just matter of time when you will get it back.
    For this reason i am doing a test to know how to get this unit faster.
     
  10. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Wrong, the baccarats ain't the 50-50 proposition! Betting banks only gonna give ya the best strikes rate possible and win a wee bit less that 51percents of yer placed bet, hey hey.
     
  11. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    After 7000 hands banker is just 100 hands more than a player.
    If you bet banker 11times and win 6 times flat 1u. Your ending result will be: -30% of profit. As longer you play as more profit it will consumes. Normally you will lose around 50% of profit in long term

    B win 0.95
    P loss -0.05
    B win 0.9
    P loss -0.1
    B win 0.85
    P loss -0.15
    B win 0.8
    P loss -0.2
    B win 0.75
    P loss -0.25
    Banker win 0.7
     
  12. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    One of player streak
     

    Attached Files:

  13. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Yes, you do pay vig on all winning bets but profits is profits. And, with the modify 11 step star style ya keep about 71% of yer gross as net, so 5.5 units nets per shoe, long term, hey hey!
     
  14. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    ——That information means REALLY NOTHING ,sozz
    That sort of posting is usually indicative of people who NEVER play REAL Money on REAL GAMES or have even PLAYED A REAL CASINO. SOZZ SOZZ. These posters always refute what is said to them ,re experience the ACTUAL drawdown on REAL bankroll and emotional swings associated with that. Dealing with the psychological side of going through a loosing streak using REAL Money from A REAL BANKROLL. They refuse the advice and come up with lame comments such as greed, money management or need to test for a gadzillion hands. Play for real because at the moment people posting this above mentioned style of posts are really just showing everyone else they know NOTHING about what they post.
    —Embarrassing really. They can’t take the notion they are wrong, especially if someone that has more experience tells them something for their benefit, the ego is to big . They will always find excuses for failing,they will always be prone to self manipulation of known data of a pre recorded shoe. They are embarking on hours of mental masturbation and will be no closer to finding a workable method. The posting of random numbers to suggest banker is the best bet is simply a demonstration of Cognitive bias in a segment Of a long sting of numbers that could have easily have been biased to player ‘BestBet” segment of numbers.
    — Theology Theology Theology get in the real world, if you’re pattern betting know your pattern, if you’re dart board betting thow the dart better ,whatever it is you do , do it. But at least put real money where your mouth is.Stop with these inane unsubstantiated Self righteous posts . At least take a moment to think about the little gems of wisdom that some other posters such as soxfam or mdawg and a few others say to you posters, as they are talking about something from a REAL PRECEPTION of having put real skin in the game.
    — There is nothing wrong with having an opinion about what you are doing, but at least qualify it as saying what you are doing is from a theoretical Perspective and refrain from espousing about any practical expertise which is clearly evident its not. I should think it’s equally acceptable to state the particular method you are referring to via the numerous sims you want to run is really just an Exercise in doing something that you’re never going to actually physically do in a real casino.
    — Most people would have no problem with that at all . There are quite a few threads on this forum that are dedicated to endless pages of sim running. Even with references to statements such as , I m Paraphrasing now , I’m not doing that last 10 pages of thread now I going to sim something else as it seems more promising etc. In other words I’m a simulation theorist .
    — You see people like soxfan understand people like you posters ,but you posters have no idea what professional people like soxfan are actually doing.
    Just a small shift in your thinking and you would make much more progress.
    Cheers
     

  15. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    This is what I mean about being Susceptible to Cognitive bias, you can change your approach/bet as it hasn’t worked ,to this particular pre recorded shoe — then you data fit your method to be now correct to that pre recorded shoe. This may be a temporary patch for the flaw in your method as you can replay that exact pre recorded show to WIN More (as per your above quote ) T he problem is you have now altered the original method you started with and now this is version 2 as you have changed it slightly , so now you have to run another gadzillion sims etc. But you will change it again to fit that above quote you made “of need to know what I have to do to win more shoes” . That’s version 3 etc plus re run through your pre record shoes. This is falling down the rabbit hole and most people don’t realise they are ever so subtly changing the original method they are working on and in the end they are not even fulfilling the criteria they set themselves of running ONE set parameters through a gadzillion Simulations but are now no closer to what they set out to accomplish. Hence theoretical theorists hypothesising.
    —I found playing poker helped me a lot as I admit I used to be GUILTY of the above actions the theory, the problem solving , the mental Masturbation and the endless rabbit holes . In poker you can know all the stats before you play but you really don’t know you should fold a pair of aces until you actually play and lose with them. That particular hand may not occur for another ten thousand hands but you don’t fold aces automatically because of that one scenario. That helped me heaps to succeed at baccarat, it shows that you don’t have to win the whole shoe with your particular method- just to be able to win the part of the shoe you are playing. That showed me that the gadzillion sims means very little as I would never come across those exact hands again in my lifetime, some yes , all ——- a big never . I put into practice what I set out to do.
    —You cannot have a 100% success rate, deal with the real emotional swing ,the fears, the despair and elation, the courage when courage is needed, this is the winning edge soxfan and others are saying is more important than the nonexistent infallible holy grail method . That’s why he says hey hey
    Cheers
     
  16. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    Punkcity, huge post.
    First at all I am full time player. Even i am testing I like to do that with real money only.
    I been in most casinos worldwide. Just comeback from Panama and Colombia before the virus hit everyone.
    If i do tests i never change betting method. If I adjust it, it goes to whole shoes I have.
    Regarding Soxfan there is no disrespect to him but I do not think I will ever agree that to bet on banker only is a good Idea.
    Maybe I should share with him my knowledge and get some of his.
    File is attached my flat betting over 6700 hands. Another file is biggest and lowest point each shoe (just part of analysis)
    And I have much more because I am going deep into all this. When Virus will allow me to rise my wings I want to be unbeatable in real game. (At this moment only online)
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Apr 20, 2020
  17. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Say 6700 hands is about 90 shoe take or give and yes you can get clipped usin bankers only over the course of a hundred shoe, but long term yer gonna win just wee bit less than 51% of yer placed bets goin bankers only, and usin a serious progression to over come tax paid on winners, hey hey.
     
  18. jbs

    jbs Active Member

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    No you won't.
     
  19. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    Soxfan can you share your long term results with me? Here or private...just add [removed]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 21, 2020
  20. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Baccarat is a game at which you either win or lose. There is no way to calculate before the bets are placed on the table.


    Or like the Lady said " Play it San." Just play it ! Its only a game .


    Fortuna isa jealous Godes and always takes beck what she has given .


    ND
     

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