1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Join our $5,000 Cash Giveaway!

    Win Cash by Posting and Inviting New Members!
  3. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  4. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play sub-forum.
    Dismiss Notice

Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Lungyeh, Sep 13, 2020.

  1. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    1,275
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    Thanks,

    This thread here is very important. I created RR with a structure to help deal with the things that this thread has the potential to evolve to. I just said that you need experience and self control. I used the 3/7 stop points to set a stage for validation and for dealing with risk and impulsive behaviour while playing. Lungyeh is willing to go into the deep crevices of the mindset of an effective and experienced professional gambler. I Know this is his topic. He should be heard. Yes, it contains his way of expressing the psychology of gambling. I think that this topic is an overlooked yet very important topic. For me it is understanding the content of the thread and making sure that I can relate to it. I look forward to the weeks ahead as it evolves.
     
  2. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    813
    An ancient wisdom proclaims" Never praise a day before the Sun sets".
     
    gizmotron likes this.
  3. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    1,275
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    yet an ancient dumbshit was heard saying "Why fuck a duck when you can just say fuck a duck."
     
  4. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    813
    substitute casino for duck and you are on a roll.
     
  5. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,690
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    That's nice, many of us haven't been to a casino since CHINNAAA's love of eating Civet cats, Bats have crashed the world economy and killed over ONE MILLION people thus far.

    But hey, let's talk Baccarat, because Wuhan is getting back to normal having fucked the world.
     
  6. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2020
    Likes:
    52
    Location:
    Malaysia
    Junket King, I think during this lockdown, many articles have been forwarded in support of one side or the other. For every article that blames Wuhan, there is another that blames something else; even about American military that extraordinarily, failed to win any single medal participating in an international military game in Wuhan and stand accused of being the source.

    Whatever, it is a new normal, the next normal this strained relationship between the US and China. The global supply chain is facing a rushed realignment as multi national companies source for production outside China. Malaysia, alongside many neighbouring countries are benefiting from this.

    On a more alarmist note, there is this Thucydides Trap theory where an existing power will go to war with an emerging power to defend the status quo. And alarmingly for some, depending on where they stand, the emerging power goes on to become the new power.

    But through it all, Baccarat remains the same enigmatic game that has thrilled many and ‘killed’ many.
     
  7. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    FrozenTundra
    Ha the lungyeh is the philosopher, hey hey.
     

  8. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    FrozenTundra
    I'm still waiting for the advocate of the trendings/guessings style to show me that they can guess/trend at at a clipm of better than 50 percents, hey hey.
     
  9. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2020
    Likes:
    52
    Location:
    Malaysia

    Perhaps not on this thread bro. Here, rightly or wrongly, the philosophy is that MM is more important than BS....
     
  10. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    1,275
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    Let's actually put that to a test. Let's see if you can listen.

    This thread is about MM and not so much about bet selections, right?

    So if I just make blind bet selections I'm going to get waves of win streaks and waves of losing streaks say 25% of the time. Are you with me so far or does that mess with your ability to listen?

    Just for the sake of making an example here let's say that a win streak or a losing streak lasts 5 to 7 spins in a row or hands in a row. That makes these little streaks smaller than any super streaks and larger than micro streaks like 3 or 4 in a row. Never the less you can see these win streaks and losing streaks all over the place while you play. I'm saying you can see both types about 25% of the time and that's all. Just for the sake of an example.

    Now these streaks came from blind random guesses with no notion that a trend or a pattern was used to find them. No trends were used to see these mini or micro streaks. Are you with me so far? Yet these streaks are all win streaks interspersed with losing streaks. You want proof that using these streaks of wins are expected to do better than using streaks of losing. I'm listening to what you want here.

    When I look in my multi group play chart that has six groups made from 12 unique sets I see trends and patterns. If I can make bet selections while a trend or pattern is continuing in a single section of the playing chart then that coincidence is a win streak phase so far . So I can read the chart and see phases of wins and phases of losses.

    What you want is proof that I can fund the win streaks and not fund the losing streaks that should at best even things out. That would be my money management over this bet selection process. I chose to fund only the coincidences that are in a win phase. If it is not in a win phase it does not get funded. If I lose at any time after starting to bet a streak I stop funding that win phase. Now you can do the math and say that I must lose half of all first attempted bets on any trend / win phase condition. But that is not true. You must allow for variable change. The math for all spins or hands works out for all the spins or hands. It does not work at all if I don't fund the losing streaks or the chaos streaks.

    So I take one net win off of all the win streaks that I bet on, money management. I only want three net wins at the funded price to win a session that then is done, more money management. For you to be right I must lose half of all attempts to take a one net win off of each win phase in a current state of continuing.

    I have people that have worked on this at length and are producing a 2 to 1 win to loss averages over many many session tests, that's all of them but one person that prefers ESP. That guy did better than 1 to 1 before he gave up on it.

    So I think you must prove to me and everyone that these people getting 2 to 1 win to loss ratios are fooling themselves. There is more evidence that my notion of variable change applies to only funding win streaks while they occur.

    I know what I'm suggesting is mathematical. But why does it apply to the game show host problem and not to when all active losing streaks are eliminated from the full possibility.

     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2020
  11. Garfield

    Garfield Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2020
    Likes:
    22
    Location:
    Indonesia
    Nice explanation Gizmo, but it will pleased the hey hey? I don't think so hey hey...
     
  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    1,275
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    That is more likely true than it not being true. He's all invested in having it proved to him. It's kind of like a child that says "I will hold my breath until you give in to me, until I turn blue."

    Still, I have never been closer to serving the mathZombies a shit sandwich. I mentioned this a while back, perhaps before the pandemic got going. I called variable change "coincidental change." It went right past everyone. Nobody could see it. I wonder if anyone can see it this time? This should blow the lid off of everything. Here it is, tucked away in an obscure thread on just another gambler's forum. Keep it a secret.
     
  13. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2020
    Likes:
    52
    Location:
    Malaysia
    Different people have different levels of control of their Chimp. Those who go on negative Martingales (irregardless how many step) may sometimes win which registers a Gremlin.

    Critical to all MM is the need to preserve capital and stay alive. Even if you have a small amount of capital left, you can live to fight another day. If everything is gone, the die is cast.

    If one wins on a negative Martingale progression after say 5 steps, he wins, God bless, 1 unit. If he loses the 5-steps for sure the Chimp is loose!!

    Anyone should be ruffled with increasing losses 4-5 IAR. All peace will be shattered. And truth be told, it depends totally on your arse luck. You lose control over your MM, your BS, your Chimp everything.

    Again, like I said, different people have different levels of control. The Human cannot fight the Chimp. The Human has to manage the Chimp; dont let it loose.

    One way to do that is to impose MM betting rules (not selection) for each phase, Hot Phase, Shar Chi Phase and the Neutral Phase. We can consider these in our minds to be ‘actual rules’ of baccarat that cannot be changed.
     
    gizmotron and Garfield like this.
  14. Garfield

    Garfield Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2020
    Likes:
    22
    Location:
    Indonesia
    Whatever we want to call it, the chimp, sar chi phase, or just bad luck, losing session will always present...

    But I want to ask you guys, do you think changing table, take a break for a particular time and so on will help? Or we are destined to lose no matter what?
     

  15. Ordinary_people

    Ordinary_people Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2020
    Likes:
    2
    Location:
    Asia
    I think when take a break have a difference. Sometimes i play for too long and feel tired and having feel heavy in head maybe because try think what to bet. If we take a break, head will lighter and eyes is not too tired too. Sometimes we cannot think clearly when tired, feel little heavy head.

    I know maybe too easy to talk to take a break. Because sometimes my self dont stop. Play, play and play too long
     
  16. Ordinary_people

    Ordinary_people Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2020
    Likes:
    2
    Location:
    Asia
    @Lung Yeh.

    From this moment, can you share your MM ? Because you make about MM. I want to know about your MM you play, if you dont mind.

    Thanks before
     
  17. Garfield

    Garfield Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2020
    Likes:
    22
    Location:
    Indonesia
    Ordinary: thx for your sharing

    About LY's bet selection... Don't hope too much on it.... It's the same as any other method out there, it will work some time, other time it won't....

    The focus here is how to maximize the winning session, and manage the losing one....

    I don't want to discourage you whatsoever...it seems you're a person that really interesting in finding the method that mostly work.... But there isn't one....

    Why many prefer to follow trend/streak/chop/pattern because it's easy...once it's there it's there...no need chart or analyze previous result etc etc


    The main problem is, one could only wait the opportunity to come....do you have the patience?

    An easy way to prove my points, I dare to say there'll be several shoes that tends to have either streak/chops/pattern everyday in casino....

    So it's only the matter of preparation meets chance.... Amat Victoria Curam...whatever it means LoL
     
  18. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    1,275
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    I have come to the same conclusion if I think that dealing with the chimp must have a set of rules. So I came up with figuring out a way to deal with impulses that have dogged me for decades. I came up with fund the good stuff and don't fund anything else. In Roulette, at a live table, you can't just sit there and bet nothing and be allowed to keep your place. So I bet the smallest amount whenever I'm not betting on a micro or miniature win streak. I then bet at least 20 times that amount when I am betting on an existing micro or mini win streak.

    So I have rules that identify the difference between micro, mini, large, and super large win streaks. I also have tactical rules for betting a single win or multiple wins from the same continuing streak. I have rules for swarms of the same sized streaks. I needed these rules. I was trying to beat the casinos with two times the minimum value and some times three times the minimum value bets. The difference between holding my place at the table during the absence of a win streak and then attacking the win streak when it appeared was way to close to each other in value. It was almost the same ad flat betting. This had the effect of nearly betting the same amount on win streaks or any other types of streaks.

    That had the effect of giving the chimp extra power. So I need to learn to see how that gets talked about here. If I were to put it into my own words I would say that I was giving fear a chance to work on my ability to go off course and move towards impulsive decision making. To my surprise I was able to gain more power over this by increasing my attack bet price at least ten times my hold the space minimum bet. So a $5 hold price became $50. Later it became $90. That is when I decided to try stop loss and stop win rules. The first thing I did was to make a decision on what I wanted to get out of a session. So I started with need. That led to the 3 net wins and the 7 net losses brackets.

    This bracketing and increased bet sizes gave me self control. It's exactly what I needed. I know that I suggested it for the Reading Randomness thread. These rules were made for me in dealing with my impulses. They are not supposed to be some kind of system rules in order to make it work. I just wanted to see what others would do with these brackets. I'm glad that so many people have tried it out. I now play with 30 times my funded price level, the big bet, as my working bankroll and have no fear of bracketing out on my way to 3 net wins per session.

    Now that I said all that, for me the chimp is fear. But perhaps I'm missing the point. It was fear that messed me up and made me make bad choices. But it was my rules that allowed me to control those impulses and fears. Just waiting to see where this is going.
     
  19. Garfield

    Garfield Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2020
    Likes:
    22
    Location:
    Indonesia
    The waiting game isn't fun at all...you could pass several hours easily without finding what you want...

    But waiting 3 hrs with all money in pocket is better than losing all in 30 mins? Yes?

    And don't fall into the fallacy that any shoes is the same...it is not imho... Some will dry your money fast and some will make you a winner....


    But self ego often speaks inside your brain, "waiting like this is ridiculous. I want to play... I'm confident with my buy in and method...etc etc"

    We all know where it'll end...
     
  20. Garfield

    Garfield Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2020
    Likes:
    22
    Location:
    Indonesia
    To Gizmo: FOMO perhaps, fear of missing out? It's a common frame of mind in trading world... If I don't bet now I'll lose the winning chance that kind of stuff...

    Believe it or not, for me the winning phase will still be there....
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2020

Share This Page