1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Join our $5,000 Cash Giveaway!

    Win Cash by Posting and Inviting New Members!
  3. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  4. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play sub-forum.
    Dismiss Notice

Baccarat Bet Selection Options

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Junket King, Aug 4, 2019.

  1. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,038
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    LOL, who cares about others, it's your money..

    Betting random makes perfect sense, because the outcomes are random.

    My prime bet option is random, in fact most of my bet selections are totally random in a sense, based on very specific pattern avoidance. However, MM reigns supreme.

    I've taken this approach to the game for the last 10 years, trending makes no sense to me, it is just wasted energy that could be better directed at your MM and maintaining your composure. i will admit however to dabbling with it occasionally.

    In regarding what BeJustRich is doing, what I don't like is that Excel is producing the bet selection, I'd be pretty certain the runs of 1's and 2's it produces will be fairly short and I doubt will handle end of streaks that well. Below are better options IMO.


    Here is thought, the Divisor should be able to handle it's nemesis. The Zig-Zag option, watch the first hand and bet the opposite and simply keep alternating for the entire shoe. So if the first hand is BANK, you bet PBPBPBPBPBPBP and so on for the entire shoe.

    The nemesis is reverse chops and nothing else. 50% of the time, you'll be on them and win every bet, 50% of the time you won't, everything else will take care of itself within a series of bets.

    If you don't like the look of losing to chops which consist of 50% of all results, then go with Double Zig-Zag DBL, BBPPBBPPBBPPBBPP how you only lose to 50% of 25% of all results.

    Better still the Triple Zig-Zag BBB PPP BBB PPP BBB PPP BBB PPP now you only lose to 50% of 12.5% of all results 33% of the time.

    Yes you did read that right, you only get hit 33% of the time there are repeating 3 streaks or a streak of 3. That means 66% of the time you will grab a win within 3 bets, perfect for Divisor I would have thought. It is not repeating 3 by 3 streaks you need to be concerned with, rather it is how they fall against your bet sequence.
     
  2. JAMESBANKROLL009

    JAMESBANKROLL009 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2018
    Likes:
    54
    Location:
    MACAU
    Nice post again nothing unusual...

    May I ask you how do you play 7Col ?
     
    Terry Plumb likes this.
  3. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,038
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Don't wish to get into exact specifics publicly. Suffice to say I consider B & P outcomes as Binary and bet against the repeat of a 1/128 outcome within a very tight series of trials. Hence the name "Anti-Binary Repeat (ABP). The vast majority of shoes conform great, then you get those shoes which are horrendous, that leave my head spinning and which have taken my bankroll on occasions. ME TOO also needs to work on my discipline. I have to include other bet options, to mitigate, plus betting less than 10 hands per shoe can be mentally draining.

    It's purely a mechanism to determine ones bets at the end of the day, same as anything else, but is supported by maths, which can not be disputed. Think of it this way, you place 128 numbered balls into a bag, choose 1 and return it to the bag. What was the odds of selecting the same ball out of a possible 128 twice within 8 trials? 1/128 x 1/128 something like 16,384 to 1, one would expect that to be bullet proof system, yet I've been hit by a 2,097,152 shot in a B&M casino. Staggering, literally staggering, still leaves me dumbfounded nearly a year later.

    You also do not wish to risk 7 bets in order to win a single bet ;)
     
    Terry Plumb and JAMESBANKROLL009 like this.
  4. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    746
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    Great observation. If you use a "random on random" bet selection then you are just using a mechanism to make a choice. I could use the old adage to name a new Indian. You just look at the first thing you see and that's the name. This is how you get Indians with names like Two Dogs Fucking. So I could look around the casino and see two blond chicks kissing. I could figure, kiss my next bet goodbye or I could bet the Pass line to win. It's all just guessing.

    It is a well known fact that nobody knows what is coming next, be it Player or Banker, Odd or Even, or Pass or Don't Pass. So all we have is a guess. That guess can be based on a random technique, intuition, a hunch, a pattern that is still repeating, an obvious strong side or weak side. In all these cases, what happens next is unknown.

    There is a way to know something though. If you look at several steps behind and just one step ahead at a time then you can actually know something. After the next step, the unknown step, you can know if it still belongs to the few steps behind or if it has changed somehow. To me there are three types of groupings like these few steps behind and what happens after the next step ahead. It's all guessing in my opinion because even if there is a process for selecting a random choice that selection is still just a guess. But knowing if a condition is still continuing is actual knowledge. You can confirm if a situation is still continuing.

    So what do you do with that unknown knowledge? You guess. In this way you get to test the waters to see if you should continue or to stop betting on that bet selection. If you have a game where you keep taking wins until the first loss then you must have more wins than losses. All first losses count as one. But all continuations never always end as one. They, by their own nature, contain multiple events. If you ever get two or more from any continuing situation then that counter balances the one.

    So in a mathematical game of mathematical bet selections, there are only the same amount of continuations as endings on the next bet selection. This would tend to cancel out any advantage of betting on continuation. Except for one thing, and that is confirmation of effectiveness. You can play when your guessing is working in swarms and not play when your guessing is hitting average or a lot of first try losses. This is real knowledge and not speculation. You can know when choices are swarming in a kind of "how is the session going" kind of observation.

    So I choose to know when my guesses are working best. To me that is the best bet selection option. To do this I use simple MM.
     
  5. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    746
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    Let's try this mathematically. Lets say that we, me and a bird on my shoulder, decide to bet on all continuations to continue.

    All next bets end as either win or lose. If it wins then we continue. If it loses we stop there. So we add that up as 50 / 50 odds.

    But when we continue we win half of those mathematically. So now we have a 25% chance of getting those two in a rows. If we lose then that wipes out the win that balances the first try. So the first try is no longer 50 / 50 because we squandered half of the balancing winners.

    If we go for a third continuance then we have a 50 /50 chance of winning that, but at a 12.5% chance of winning three in a row. This continues down always leaving half the wins as a loss against a 50 / 50 try. So mechanically speaking it is a lost cause. But once you add swarming to this you win more times than you lose and all the math goes out the door while this section of the session is swarming. True or not?
     
    Junket King likes this.
  6. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2019
    Likes:
    40
    Location:
    Iceland

    Well why is not perfect random if i use https://www.random.org/integers/ to generate like 100 or 1000 possible combinations of 1 - 2
    (one as player - two as banker)
    Sure i will run a test tonight regarding your advice BBB PPP
    Thanks.
     
  7. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2019
    Likes:
    40
    Location:
    Iceland
    Not true, because your chances are the same 50/50
     

  8. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2016
    Likes:
    27
    Location:
    North Carolina
    This is a good discussion. I once went to the B&M and had a predetermined string of random bets selected - 120 of them - to see how successful it would be. This string produced 67 wins and 53 losses which is pretty amazing. I’m sure another 120 random bets would produce just the opposite or over time get near 50/50 and therefore the house edge of banker commission would cause you a small loss. We also know that a chop or 1IAR should occur 50% of the time, a 2IAR 25% of the time, etc. and although you are armed with his mathematical information, what is your test sample if you are basing your bet decision to bet against a 3IAR and bet Banker after PP comes out? In the long run, yes, betting against it mathematically should be the right thing to do. However, when the P comes out to get that 3IAR, how do justify that loss? Because in reality, the shoe itself doesn’t know what’s going on. Maybe betting B in previous shoes worked three times but this is just making the odds correct. You have no way of knowing what’s happened in the past 10, 100 or 1,000 shoes previously. My point is that your chance of being correct is always 50/50 on any hand. Streaks don’t know streaks are going on.

    Random bet selection is like trying to figure what’s coming next. It doesn’t really matter. You may think that the odds are in your favor but in reality, all bets are guesses. If you knew what was coming next, then you would win all bets which just doesn’t happen.

    Sorry for the rambling. I’m trying to re-evaluate my betting process and know that the MM is the most important portion of the bet.
     
  9. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    746
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    Great! So two in a row is 50 / 50 and three in a row is 50 / 50. When I get 10 in a row that will be 50 / 50 too. This is the Holy Grail, I'm going to be very rich. Thanks
     
  10. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    746
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    MM is the answer, I agree. My MM is don't bet when shit is happening. Only bet when Steak & Lobster is happening. It is entirely knowable. If you walk into a casino and expect your pet patterns or string of random events to work just because you have finally arrived then you are going to get killed off more times than you win. So the most important aspect to my money management is timing.
     
    JAMESBANKROLL009 likes this.
  11. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,038
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Actually it is not. You and few others have not grasped the true advantage in my first post. Which is the element of PATTERN CAPTURING, It is not about winning a particular hand, it never has been, it doesn't even matter. Pattern Capturing vs Pattern Avoidance. I can assure you, it is one of the most powerful strongest ways to approach the game in the long term. I think we are on different levels, not wishing to be disparaging I've probably got a lot more table experience under my belt.

    True, but you don't need to know, it literally doesn't matter.

    Old school way of thinking, never worked then, only works sporadically today. Placing emphasis on prior non-collateraled outcomes!!

    Might as well go for it if you won the last 2 bets, because if you lose, you'll still be up 1W

    Of course it doesn't, nor does it matter. Pattern Capturing vs Pattern Avoidance!!! What does it matter losing a single bet?

    No it is not, the techniques I outlined in my first post are all Pattern Capturing methods, I've used them all at the tables, they are not some computer generated random stream 'this is what you will bet at the point in a shoe'. They are far from the same thing.

    Expected Streak Frequency plays it's part.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
    JAMESBANKROLL009 and gizmotron like this.
  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    746
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    OK, I will learn what you mean by "pattern capturing." I won't guess or assume I know what you mean. But I do want it to be clear that I'm saying that a concept of swarm capturing matters to me. I know it works. I can't wait to dig into this. I'm all over the step up and step down progression.
     
    Junket King likes this.
  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,038
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Good luck with that, it was a term originally term posted by Sam Redman about 15 years ago on GG, I like to think I took it to a whole new level.

    When I place a bet, all I care and think about is what I don't won't to happen, not what I would like to happen (pattern avoidance), the rest is all about the betting.

    For example the Triple Zz, mentioned in the opening post, I don't care if the shoe chops, produces doubles, streaks of 4 or more, because I grab a winning bet within a series of bets no matter what. I'm only slightly concerned with streaks of 3, slightly, because 66% of the time they are not a problem, 33% of the time, it hurts.

    I'm not stating this is a potential Holy Grail, loss strings can be an issue. However it is a bet selection technique that wins against, chops, 2's, 66% of any 3 streak and everything thereafter.

    The rest is all about betting.

    Welcome to my world of Templates, where you will survive longer in the long term than you ever will by gazing at the score board, trying to figure out "what comes next" ;)
     
    Terry Plumb and JAMESBANKROLL009 like this.
  14. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,038
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Hey, just want to clear something up. I'm not advocating readers should do this and do that.

    If you winning doing what you're doing then great, don't change. If you're struggling with your game, then hopefully you can take something from what I post. I'm not into "you need to be doing it this way", strictly a take it or leave stance.

    My first post was very basic. I'm not suggesting anybody runs to the casino and starts betting the Triple Zz, I have left a bits out, tweaks and fixes, as a prime example "You Don't Bet Every Hand", because the odds of of winning 3 in a row are heavily stacked against you.
     
    Terry Plumb likes this.

  15. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    746
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    I don't get it. I avoid a specific pattern too. I avoid losing streaks.

    I know that random on random does not work as a bet selection alone and unless something else is applied to it to make it work. So based on expression alone to me you are suggesting that some patterns need to be avoided. And you are possibly suggesting that this tactic gives you more wins than losses. I can successfully lose if I deliberately use patterns to cause the losses. I can use the inverse of that to win too. Patterns and trends are not the last word in guessing effectively. Betting when effectiveness is winning is what is effective. This avoiding the pattern of effectiveness in losing streaks, one would be wise to take notice of that too. I'm suggesting that barging head long through losing streaks is not only self deprecating but just outright bad for your gambling career. I'm not implying that you are suggesting doing that though. But your writings look like that they disregard the need to avoid bad streaks. So, if that is true then you believe that you win more than you lose even thru losing streaks. There is only one way, to me, to barge ahead like this. You use a fixed rule to tackle randomness.You might have a fixed rule that has a pattern avoidance system attached to it.

    I am experienced in fixed rule bet selection tactics. I've been building sims for decades to test rule based systems. Not even the Super Neural Strategy progression is immune to failure. The bet selection is too rigid. Bet selection combined with MM is the answer. I hope you have something worth considering in pattern avoidance. It sounds great on the outside.
     
  16. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    746
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    I get it. And thanks.
     
    Junket King likes this.
  17. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,038
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    No, this is not the case. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it does, what matters is wining a bet within a tight series of bets (lose strings).

    It can be a disaster doing this, usually vulnerable when you have too much money at your disposal, way to easy to keep on betting when you'r playing online. No you should avoid bad streaks, table experience will identify those, which in the case of the Triple Zz is overtly streaky portions on a Baccarat shoe, in which case you should be switching to FLD. I did hint at this in another post on this board.

    I lose against some shoes, dropping 20~40 units, so just play more shoes until my goal is reached.

    Yes it is one of my other bet options. I do however with the online shoes due to the poor shuffle procedures TREND at a base unit level.

    At the end of the day, it is all about the betting. Which in my case is my String Method.
     
    Terry Plumb and gizmotron like this.
  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,038
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Yeah but i'm guessing you are trying to avoid a lot more than 33% of any given streak of 3.
     
  19. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    746
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    You know that a total absence of triples or larger is an invitation to clobber the casino. You know that it can be a mix of singles mixed in with doubles and the triples and larger are just sleeping somewhere. It's just one form of an opportunity. I would play a tactic to beat the situation that exists temporarily. These are just gifts to people that can see it. If, on the other hand, you are not looking but married to a strategy that might turn all this into a huge disaster then these situations are just lost.

    I'm trained to recognize patterns and weakness that I have never seen before. I know how to attack never seen before situations. If they last for a while then the casino sees me in a huge win streak. The pit boss's always come and stand at the table to watch. I kill the casino like some kind of new thing that just came out of nowhere.

    But I'm a grinder and can see opportunity even in chaos. I play what is not there too. I play that absence of patterns or trends. As long as anything is continuing I tend to ferret it out and use it to my advantage. The length of continuations also come in trends and patterns. I recognize the length of continuing trends. They swarm, they get chaotic, they even repeat perfectly as a type of characteristic and will swarm all across my six groups made from 12 sets. I watch for these things because at some point just about every day there is at least one huge weakness, opportunity, to pounce on the casino. That is what I taught a person that had no idea what was possible before I taught him. It's an acquired skill.

    People have no idea that I know this stuff because they have never seen it or conceived of it. On top of all that I have a self control MM to just get what I need and leave. So I'm combining my hunting skills with a three step version of the stepped progression we have been discussing and flat betting the top step until the win is achieved. Combined with stop loss and stop win tactics and virtual betting I know I have my technique. I also know how hard it was to figure all this out in the first place. It took decades of real playing experience to simplify what I now do easily.

    I know this is just for me. I have pretty much failed in attempting to share it. There were those first years back at GG where I only hinted at this stuff. The mathBoys ruled with an iron fist back then. Snowman was his usual obnoxious self too. In the past two years I figured out how to put it all together as a method. I'm use to rejection. It is just part of the internet. People only tend to see what they want to see and in directions that they are currently interested in. Trends are out for most people. OK, no big deal. I just wanted to pass on this direction before I kick the bucket. And for some reason that just does not look like it will happen, heart attack and all ten years ago.

    But this stepped up and down progression is fun to combine with trend hunting. I thrive on trends as they occur. I know they come and go in different sizes. They just swarm in characteristics too. When that happens it's tough shit for the casino.
     
  20. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    1,038
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    No it isn't past results mean shit

    Good for you

    Good on you

    Good for you

    Good on you

    Maybe you start a new thread dedicated to whatever of instead of clogging this one up., you don't even play Bacccarat!!!!!
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
    Terry Plumb likes this.

Share This Page