Baccarat Bet Selection Options

The OLCD doesn't strike me as too bad! I am sure I read somewhere that the 1's, 2's and 3's account for 87.5% of all decisions which is obviously true just thinking about it because of the 50%, 25% and 12.5% ratios.

 

Yeah somebody else said that to me years ago (Hunter I think), but I always swung towards LCD, solely as you could better define the nemesis pattern, 33% of a 3 streak, whereas OLCD, could be a 4,5 or 6 streak or beyond. Sure you could stop and wait for an on-paper win after 4L.

 

I dislike switching as well... Too dangerous, I prefer stop and waiting storm goes away...

Can't wait for that...

I am very impressed by all the arsenal you have at your disposal both in terms of money management and bet selection...

The key here is virtual losses... Right ?

 

Thinking about OLCD I've quickly checked the nemesis streaks.


Chops, 2's, 3's no issue. when it comes to exact streaks of 4, they will produce 3 losses in a row only 33% of the time, 66% you will snare a winning bet within 3 bets.

Exact Streaks of 5 - is the same, maximum 4 losses in a row 33% of the time, 66% of the time you will win either the first bet or second bet.

Exact Streak of 6 - you either win your first bet or second bet, or lose 5 in row.

FUCK, looks like I might have been doing it wrong all those years ago LOL.

This is not recommended for online play, as the frequency of streaks can be a bizarre. I would imagine this would be great for a angel shuffle machine table!

You absolutely got it, colour me impressed Kudos

I've been doing this along time and figured if I was going down the gambling route, I need to learn how to become very difficult to beat. Such as putting the onus on the house to produce certain odds to beat me, from an original 16/1 which a friend introduced me to, 32/1, 64/1 and currently 128/1

 

Just checked the last 3 shoes I've played, I'm looking for a 3Col option.

Here are the loss Win strings for a selected portion of the shoe; (so that it doesn't get in the way of other options)

LLW LW W LLL W L W LL W LLL - W6 L13

LW LW W W W W W W = W8 L2

W W W W W LW W = W7 L1

Hmmm, first doesn't look that good, yet those loss runs seem manageable....

I'm gonna run with this when I jump back online in a second, I've still got unfinished business

 

"Bet selections" you might as well just say Win/loss Frequencies (or EV+/-) of the game

any guess program will suffer the same end result of Frenquences in my 1980s book blackjack formula the author spoke of a 10 win streak frequency of 10 hands in a row non interrupted by a loss (without counting) one can expect every 4,000 hands 10 wins non interrupted by a loss (this may have been a single deck or double deck game not sure)

but thats what we are all dealing with bet selectings, progressions, money management , if i had unlimited money would i be able to win money per year from the gaming houses? not without positive VP machines or blackjack counting, i been reading seriously gaming books from the 70s to today and each of them has a chapter in money management Dividing your bankrolls into days does stretch your time but does alter the - to + and thats what were looking for a win rate frequency

i lost big too last night in the casino (still a winner this year and plan to keep it that way but not going back for a bit) but after losing 6 times without showing a profit i realized i can't stick my hand into the machine and grab a royal flush and baccarat players can't reach in the shoe and physically grab an 8 or 9

i do believe the martingale would succeed as one author in my gaming book mention but it is foiled by table limits, eventually after 60-100 reds you would guess right and land on black or banker not to mention the bankroll would be insane but in a fair non cheating game yes the MG would work in this 3Dimensional world without cheating

when we all first step inside a casino we don't know if were going home winner or loser tonight, the future is un-written until 2-6 hours of gaming then it is written and we know now, that can be said with almost anything tho but holds true with gaming

every game we play has to be the best, every bet we make has to be the best , every bet has to be taken seriously bankroll is king but no amount of bankroll can turn a guess program into a winner, i guess what im trying to say is we need a 60 hour system not a 1,2,3 system to listen in depth of the win/loss frequencies i lost 1k$ 9/6 in 19khands (40hours of gambling no royal) on my phone which seems to be as random as IGT

its all going to boil down to if its a good game or bad game , win/loss frequencies , if able to double your bank roll ten times over
those would be the 3 things to look for but keep in mind even in a 100.76% game one can still lose 5 bankrolls

 

You haven't taken into account "Pattern Capturing", which I did reference in this thread. Of course you will lose if a Baccarat shoe produces nothing but streaks of 6's and 7's for the entire shoe! Now we know that shouldn't really happen..

YES, I 100% subscribe to this, Bankroll is King, if you had a $10k bankroll and played a $10 table, you could probably for forever, well I would, you might die of boredom and struggle to maintain discipline after a week. That spread would be massive and you could navigate out of any bad run.

Sorry to hear that, must be something about Sunday's, maybe we should be in church instead of gambling LOL.
I aimed to to recoup by the end of the week, looks like i'll manage it tonight. I'm taking a break as playing online can be driaining.

No they can't, I would like to, but also don't rely on it either. 15 mins ago my bet selection had me betting Bank for 3 hands, each and every time the first two card to the Player are Natural 9,. Once ok fair enough, but 3 times!!! Then again I've had big bets out on the Bank, first 2 cards to the Player N8, Bank win 9 over 8, so it's horse for courses, you just have to keep your rag about you, put it into prospective, stay calm and focus on your next bet amount.

I expect to win. If I ever thought I was going to lose, I would stay at home, I always expect to win, that expectation is greatly increased by the available BR. Suffice to say I don't always win and I've blown those big bankrolls as my composure has crashed on occasions. I'm longing to go back and recoup it probably in Sept. I am nervy when I first start playing, it takes about an hour before I relax.

Yes it can, because Baccarat is a money game, depends how you putting it to use. Playing a no stop until I drop Marty or Fibo, yes you will get cleaned out, although I have recovered from a lost 144u Fibonacci bet. However if you back-off, split, perform mini-recoveries & gear changes!! You don't go in all guns blazing, but you can win with hefty amount of fire-power. In days gone by, I've lost literally 100's of units and won them all back in the same 24h or 30h session, because I had back-up, surviving on cigarettes, coffee while feeling pissed on serotonin.

One particular session just a few years ago down-under, lost multiple buyin's, eventually recovering, then slapping a bit on top for them making me work, then lost it all again (crazy night LOL), recouped and got back to when I was up. Due to the many buyins I had a lot of cash on the table so though to hell with it and kept on going. A friend of mine couldn't hack the pace, said I was like machine and left at 4am. It was a 24h session for me, I walked out of the place with over twice the profit I originally came in for.

There's is sod all you can do regarding regrading Baccarat hands, which sides wins, there is a lot you can do regarding wagering, maintaining your composure, being adequately capitalised for any eventually, plus having the know how of the best way to get yourself out of jam and being able to think ahead.


Here is a example, which I implemented on my last shoe, short time ago. I've two sets of strings going, low value and high value.

I'm trying to win a remaining 8 higher value chips (don't really care about the lower value strings, deal with them later), winning and losing higher value bets, incrementing and adding to a pair of strings, my original target of 14 blew out to fuck knows what. Made some big bets, I'm left with a single string of 2-2-2-2. So the next bet is either 2 units or 4 units??

Nope scrub that, in the middle of the shoe, I converted that single string of 2-2-2-2 into 2 x 1-1-1-1, I had my fun getting down from 14 to 8. If I win 6 of the higher value units, I'll probably convert the remaining 2 units to lower value stings, simply to get off betting the higher value, simply because we don't know. Thinking and reacting on the fly, I ain't one of those ploppies that you see just sitting there at the tables betting and hoping for a natural score!!

 

"bankroll is king but no amount of bankroll can turn a guess program into a winner"
"Yes it can, because Baccarat is a money game"

then you will need to count the cards in baccarat because what you are saying goes against my dozens of gambling books from 1980s to today

i tried dozens of betting structure, gambling systems on different games infact my first gambling game i fell in love with was roulette and first betting system i tried was the martingale yea i won as i was suppose to my lil win frequencies were there but when the big bang came i collapsed and i bought up gambling books and i read blackjack can be beaten and then i found out you can still go broke with 10 grand or 30 grand or whatever all for what? to make 5$ an hour at atlantic city tables? now i suppose if you live in vegas with a massive bankroll and a team i guess you can make a living at it but that doesn't help me in the here and now

i don't think i gambled in the casinos as much as the average gambler but i do like to stay awhile and listen others

 

BINGO

Mission accomplished, after dropping a few k on Sunday and giving myself until the end of the week to recoup, I've done it in less than 24 hours, starting after taking a break after the original loss, which easily could have been avoided by taking evasive action with my Labby string, which I didn't do at the time, 15 seconds to make a judgement call!!! Ploughed on and on and got bite in the ass, composure crumbled, started making and losing bigger and bigger bets, then more of less made a do or die 100u bet, but in all the confusion I bet the wrong fucking side which lost.
That kind of was the death knell. No mentally coming back from shit like that. FUMING would be an absolute understatement.


Forgot to add to the above, it came to me while playing, I'm using Maths, not some funky weird maths, but real maths. It doesn't always work but for the vast majority of shoes it does and it has to. Already discussed it with one of the WoV mods, who wanted to dispute it as they all hate Baccarat and can't see their nose in front of their face. I pointed out the logic in the first page of the thread.

Anyway, going to walk the dog then hit the sack, it's been very an extreme emotionally 36 hours and i'm feeling on cloud 9

 

Just responded before I read your post.

My background is IT, so like to consider myself a pretty logic type of guy and I do appreciate maths and accept the realities of what the game is, so hand prediction, pattern following, card counting are all non-starters for me in the long term.

 

i have done that many times too, thats why i write down what side im going to bet and the unit value, and i recheck it before placing the bet, i still catch myself about to bet wrong side, until i relook at my sheet.... even with my sheet i still sometimes make the wrong bet, so far its been at my lower value stuff. It helps that i play alone most times and can take my time and recheck and doublecheck my bet// good comeback

 

I've done too many times during online play for my liking. This shit is gonna happen when you're "feeling it", under stress and have less than 15 seconds to make a bet, while figuring out the most appropriate bet amount.

 

What does OLCD stand for?

 

Opposite Last Column Decision

 

You know the difference between church and gambling?

When you gamble and pray you really mean it! Bwahaha!

 

.........and being in Church is only a show of face .

 

Returning the OLCD option, be fore warned, it doesn't handle streaks of 6 or more too well.

Here is a sample of my testing run over a decade ago.



I realise the reason why I never seriously pursued this, because my strike rate after testing 50 shoes was only 45.8%

Testing 30 shoes using LCD, returned 50%.

As with any bet selection, it is not so much the strike rate, rather the length of the loss strings, are they manageable? Sure applying the brakes after X losses is an option, you shouldn't get hit by too many 6 streaks in a B&M casino (might do online). At the end of the day, I'm just putting it out there.

 

I've cherry picked this shoe, as this was the worst performing shoe, just so you know what you might be up against,



If you have a MM approach to handle this (you don't have to profit, breaking even is fine) , let me know, we can both make a bucket load of money in the long run


And just to add balance, my best performing test shoe


Baccarat can be like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get until you bite.

I'm assuming you might like to gauge the shoe before going down this road.

Do your homework!!!

 

I'm not big on stopping. Just as easy to get 2 or 3 more after a stop . Better off changing your bet size in my opinion.

 

So you lose 6 bets betting against a streak, and now keep on throwing more money at it. it could go to 12 (LOL)

Come on Jim (or anybody), I know your MM is good. Show us how to break even on that worst case shoe above.