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Baccarat Bet Selection Options

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Junket King, Aug 4, 2019.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Worst case shoe went:

    LLLWLWWWLLLWWWLWLWWLLLLLWWLLLWLLWLWWWWWWLLLWWLLLLWLW

    Not a great shoe. Me? I lose 3 or 4 IAR I will either go half back or freeze bet (depending) and restart after getting some back from win 2 IAR.

    I would have been about even after 6 WIAR then -2 at hand 62. Shoe ending I would have lost more if stayed but unless I went on tilt I woud just take a small loss.
     
    Ravinderchawla likes this.
  2. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    If you're happy with -2, there is a solid mechanical bet option. That was my worst case shoe (doesn't exclude others being worse), but the good shoes will take care of themselves.

    I've noticed in the sample sheet I posted earlier, I looks like I'm applying the brakes after 6Liar.
     
    Terry Plumb likes this.
  3. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Here you go, I have just played this shoe, it was so flat, they couldn't fit it all on the score board (1st 11 hands not displayed).

    The opener of the shoe ran;

    P-B-B-B
    P-B-B-B
    P-P-B- then it follows the score card below.

    I wasn't playing OLCD, but thought you might like to see this.

    Capture123.JPG

    Unfortunately we can't see round corners....
     
    Terry Plumb likes this.
  4. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    So, you buck up against 200 straight player doms shoe????? Amazing, it make me want to go back to the trendings style! Obviously, you can't see the value in a bets selection that allow to win significantly more hand that ya lose, oh well, hey hey.
     
  5. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    As someone who likes to peek around corners :eek: The only way I am beating that shoe with OLCD is to trend the W/L registry. Now in a sense, it's not actually a bad idea if going by your records, I could maintain a 46% strike rate meaning more losses to work with than wins and also there is the bonus of more breathing space because there would be slightly less bets to make meaning it's easier to maintain composure. So anyway, I marked it and would have come out ahead around +10 just flat betting. However blind Freddy could have likely did the same on this particular shoe considering the 16 wins vs 29 losses if that was his MO. I know it's not what you wanted to hear but it's worth bearing in mind that there is more than one way to skin a cat.
     
  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Care to expand on how you would do that?

    Appreciated..

    BTW- that different bias YT channel has put out an interest blurb regarding Aaron Banks and the illegal funding of the Brexit vote. Also downloaded what is suppose to be a very good netflex doco "the great hack", which I haven't watched yet.
     
  7. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I was using OLCD on selective portions of shoes earlier (top 3 rows), in fact I was doing quite alright with it. So I then decided to use it for entire shoes as a secondary bet option, that held up well for many shoes. Then it happened, I don't know if it was through mental exhaustion, but it seemed I could never win my first placed bet, for some reason I expected to. Then it got progressively worst, no wins within 3 bets and it started impacting me, all the tables I played were producing monster streaks, when I was playing for choppy shoes. After getting sick to the teeth with OLCD and after 3Liar, I decided to switch to LCD and got another 3Liar, fuckin' Murphy!!!

    There exists more robust options. In fact designing a bet selection that say may fail once per 50 ~ 100 shoes isn't that difficult, it is the MM that is the issue.
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2019

  8. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    This 3Column OLCD thing, I'm going to lay it out in regards to Pattern Capturing, wanting to work it out for myself what the issue is, it ran great last night, then I started struggling with it. Just wanted to see why, might as well share it at the same time.

    1's - will win 1st bet.
    2's - will win either 1st, 2nd or 3rd bet
    3's - will win either 1st, 2nd or 3rd bet
    4's - will win either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd bet
    5's - will win either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd bet, followed by 4 losses in a row *
    6's - win win either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd bet, followed by 5 losses in a row *
    7's - win win either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd bet, followed by 6 losses in a row *

    Ok, now I've worked through it, I can see what the hell was happening!!!

    For another day perhaps, beginning to think it has nothing to offer over the bet selection OLD and applying the brakes after a predetermined amount of losses. I knew there must have been a reason I abandoned this years ago and went with LCD!!
     
    Terry Plumb likes this.
  9. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    I apologize im not following your bet selection (OLCD) now as my head is full with JK FIBO regre delay stuff lol

    so I am unsure if this shoe you posted is good or bad for your bet selection

    decided to play this as it was the latest shoe i saw you post, using my bet selection with your MM, preprogression plan was 7units, then labby- that seems to have the best balance between making a few units on my good shoes (5-8) and not getting killed on my bad shoes (in very limited testing)

    flat betting--11 WINS IN A ROW (havent had that in any of my shoes since ive started this bet selection about 20 shoes, most ive seen is 7)

    then later in shoe got hit with 7 straight losses which was part of a 12L/1W 13 in a row


    W
    L
    W
    L
    L
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    L
    W
    L
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    L
    L
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    W
    W
    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    W
    L
    L
    W
    W
    W
    L
    L

    JK SHOE POST 63.JPG


    IMG_20190808_031703.jpg
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2019
  10. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    The shoe I posted was perfect for OLCD, however see my post above, I don't think it is as efficient as the bet selection OLD and should be avoided against streaky shoes. I would imagine it would be really good against any Angel technology shuffled game, as this tends to produce overtly choppy shoes.

    Why? Both LCD and OLCD, would have cleaned up against the shoe.

    Hey, did you notice the non-uniformity of the 2nd line hole gap?

    After the last B4 streak it ran 4, 5, 3, 7, as opposed to something like 4, 4, 4, or 3, 3, 3 or 4, 3, 4, 3, or 4, 5, 4, 5... :cool:
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2019
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  11. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    Some people should just not attempt to speculate at baccarat on a serious basis and you seem to be one of them, hey hey.
     
  12. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Rusty back? Thought he was running with Nathan Detroit holy grail never to be heard of again. But, alas, he's back looking for a winner.
     
  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I incorrectly assumed Rusty was a newbie, he a veteran. Guessing ND gave him Patricks regress, bet 2 then 1 on the Bank.

    That is just common sense in protecting the prior win, not exactly rocket science, been doing things like this for yonks.

    If I have a string full of 3's, first bet is 3u, win that the next bet is not 3u, it's lower. Must I thank JP for that?
     
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  14. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Don't you think if he just gave him JP he would have said that instead of being so secretive?
     

  15. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    No, JP's stuff is copyrighted and top secret according to ND.
     
  16. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    LOL.

    And don't you ever sleep?
     
  17. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    No I want to see what you're up to.
    Slept today from 11am until 7pm, was playing all through the night :cool:


    Ok getting back on track regrading Mechanical Bet options.

    disclaimer, while extremely robust, play at your own risk

    Harking back to 3Col LCD which only fails to 33% of any three streak, while returning a winning bet against everything else, including 66% of any three streaks, sounds great doesn't it? Boy it can get real ugly at times, is there anything we can do about it?

    How about with a bit of clever thinking we can reduce the nemesis 33% of any streak of 3, to 20% of any streak of three, shaving 13% off our nemesis pattern has to be good thing right!

    So how do we do that?

    Use columns of 5's.

    With a column of 5, there are 5 landing spots, so if we isolate a 3 streak to just one spot, that means 20% of the time, we lose 4 bets, 80% of the time which we win a bet within 4 attempts, no need to be concerned with any other streak length, singles, doubles, long streaks, whatever, we will grab a winning bet within a series of bets against them all.

    Isolate (I call it AM which stands for anti-middle, so this bet option is called 5Col-AM3) the 3 streak 'bookended'' in the middle of a column of 5.

    The nemesis pattern is; (there are 32 possible patterns of 5, only 2 of those hurt us, 16/1 odds, maximum 4 bets required)

    1-B
    2-P
    3-P
    4-P

    5-B

    OR

    P
    B
    B
    B

    P

    So whatever the top line is, we no bet, then bet that hand 3 times stopping after any win, if we lose 3 bets, then bet the opposite side to which you have been betting, only if the 3 streak ends do you lose 4 bets. It's that simple.

    Only a 3 streak which occurs 12.5% of the time, when we start betting, we are only concerned with 50% of those, as we are betting 1 side only is our nemesis.

    Will it win? Of course, can it lose, of course? The nature of the beast isn't it.

    You can of course reduce that 20% even further, like as low as 14% !!!!!

    It will all boil down to your money management, MM is always king, always.. Just in case, because random is exactly that random, ensure you can survive 8 losses in a row, the rest should be plain sailing.

    My small sample of testing returned at 52% win rate. I don't go for extensive testing much, as everything resolves to a 50-50 states against the Binary Tables, much prefer to give something that looks interesting a trial at a casino table.

    Here is some sample data, not checked for accuracy, do your own o_O

    5Col-AM3.JPG
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2019
  18. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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  19. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    you are way above my head on this, I havent really tried to understand your bet selection yet,

    and as you are aware i dont follow the main road in my random bet selection 97% of the time, so besides a run of 6+ i am jumping around the shoe randomly, it just surprised me that the shoe you posted i won 18 out of 20 straight along with a 11 straight win streak, it was the best shoe I have seen since starting this bet selection, but i play at BM and shoes RUn differently because the magic random shuffler
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2019
  20. JAMESBANKROLL009

    JAMESBANKROLL009 Member

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    Another good one... Great job...

    How to reduce down to 14% ?

    haha a little suspicious or on anticipation ...o_O;):)
     
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