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Craps Craps Betting Strategy by David Gregory: A Craps Strategy Definitely Worth a Try

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by David Gregory, Oct 8, 2021.

  1. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Fathead, I really do appreciate the effort you have put into this. I would think that we are all looking for something, anything that offers a little bit of hope. You have reached the same conclusion that I have, Craps offers the best chance over both Baccarat and Roulette because there is no Zeros or Ties to interrupt the the pattern. Therefore, if a betting system is to be developed it should be done with the game of Craps only.

    The one question I have to ask when you tested my system, did you program it so that one session was not complete until a win of 64 units or that session lost the 7 step Martingale? This is a very important part of the procedure. An other important part of the procedure is to stop when you have accrued a loss of no more than 384 units no matter where you are. in other words, if you are ahead by by 1,000 units and you lose 384 units that is end of game. That is to be considered long term. You do not continue playing the system after that.

    After getting familiar with the game of Craps and the better chance it has over Roulette and Baccarat, I have been experimenting with two other systems that are showing better results than the one I initially posted. I will say this about the game of Craps and its drawback is it is the slowest game on earth. I would never play Craps at a b & m casino. Online games are much quicker and I really like the newer Revolution Craps where I have been testing the two latest systems I am developing.

    I do not have a means to program my systems and can only test them on a Craps simulator. I use the Wizard of Odds Crap simulator because it has been independently tested and found to be extremely accurate.

    When I have tested these two new systems long enough and find the one that works the best of the two, would you be willing to program it to see if it has any validity?
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2021
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  2. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    The reason is not the interruption by zero(s) but the lower house edge. Double Zero roulette -5.25%. Single zero -2.7%. Craps (pass and don't pass, no odds) -1.4%. Baccarat -1.2%. Now with craps you can use a heavy odds bet 10x or 20x or 100x if allowed to get the house edge down to almost nothing if you have a very large bankroll. Not all casinos allow odds that high though. I played mainly in the southeast where 10x odds or higher was normal.

    The testing was done on one continuous data stream. When one "session" ended another instantly began. "Sessions" don't really matter in the long run. Consider it gambler's fallacy.

    So if you lose -384 units from the peak you never play this system again? Surely that is not what you mean. It would a very short test indeed, then. What do you do at that point, come up with a totally different system? If this is really what you intend let me know and I can retest.

    Craps can be a complex game to test. I can do pass line with or without odds, don't pass with or without odds, field bet. That is about all I have tried. If you have at least 10,000 bets in a strategy and it looks good I could take a crack at it. Just keep careful records.

    I prefer testing on my live database that I have collected. I can create unlimited simulated rolls but I don't consider it as valid. Craps is unique in that the bettors operate the randomizer (dice). If you demanded to spin your own roulette wheel or shuffle and deal your own cards in baccarat you would be denied but for some reason it is okay in craps. I have found that table mood and roller skill can make a difference.
     
  3. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Here is the baccarat test. You can see that it sort of went sideways for a while and (as it always happens) the total losses got close enough together to bring it down to the point of no return. See attached profit curve below.

    I think I have an error in the craps simulation. It has been years since I tried to test craps. I will take another look at it and post the revised results later. Not sure if the results will be better or worse.

    Gregory Baccarat 1.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2021
  4. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Active Member

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    @fathead, don't get me wrong ..

    but due to many mathboyz & coders included being adamantly anti-systems or at least having come to an adamant conclusion about the non-viability of such
    +
    lots of those simply trying to stirr shit up or block the attempts of anyone's progress having malicious intents

    I guess it would be accurate to say, that it would be very easy to select & upload any of the downward spiral graphs saying 'doesn't work'. Also, coding errors ain't s rare thing ..


    So this goes for all the coders;
    for every test done, all the test relevant documentation & material should be disclosed each & every time for the test to be reproduced if so wished including;
    • graph
    • permanence file
    • code used for the test in a *.txt or *.doc file, if more files then archived &
    uploaded either here or on the upload site posting the link here
     
  5. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Yeah, I don't really take marching orders from random posters so feel free to ignore my testing if you like.

    I have posted a couple of positive system results on the baccarat forum if anyone is interested. The fact is there are very few ideas that produce long term profits in my testing. It could be that even those are specific to my live dataset. I wish I could could find a long term winner that did not require a large bankroll and infinite patience but it may not exist.

    I have run simulations on futures, forex, thoroughbreds, sports betting, roulette, craps, and baccarat for decades and don't need any lectures from anyone.
     
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  6. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    There were a couple of errors that I fixed in the craps simulation. This chart still looks a little odd to me (the V loss and recovery about three fourths the way through) but I don't see any more issues to be fixed.

    The bottom line is still that (on this dataset anyway) the strategy loses money. It was trying to recover towards the end so that is something. See attached.

    Gregory Craps 1.png
     
  7. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Okay, let's get realistic here. All he mathboyz and coders adamantly state that all systems will lose in the long run. WHAT EXACTLY IS THE LONGRUN? Nobody has ever answered that question. But I have the answer to that according to the way they test. The long run is where the system fails to the point of no return and you lose your complete allotted bankroll. Everybody seems to test the various systems to a ridiculous, unrealistic point. I mean, c'mon man, 50,000 to a million outcomes or more. Who would ever play that many outcomes in a lifetime? If a betting system is fairly intelligent along with good money management, it would lengthen the long run to a possible profit before losing starting bankroll. But still, it's impossible to determine when you are approaching the long run. I do not believe that a living can be made by gambling because sooner or later over that length of time you will inevitably meet the long run of complete ruin. However, with an intelligent system and the proper parameters, some serious money can be made or at least the loss can be held within reason.

    The system I am now testing has very specific parameters. So far I have played 86 sessions of winning either 32 units or 64 units per session (a 32 unit win per session using a 6 step Marty or a 64 unit win per session if using a 7 step Marty), I am ahead by 2,837 units. My stop game is a loss of 384 units. If I lose 384 units I stop game figuring I have reached the long run but I am still ahead by 2,453 units. However, at that point because of the units won, I would probably continue the game to see if I could recover the 384 lost, setting a stop loss at 1,000 units ahead. That would definitely signal long run if I dropped down to 1,000 units.

    I also have been testing this system on Roulette only because it is much faster. And amazingly enough, I have overcome being hit by many Zeros. I do not believe that a system can be tested accurately as you do. There are a certain amount of human decisions that are made outside of the parameters when I notice certain happenings are taking place. You know, if my base unit was 100.00, I would be at a win of 283,700.00. You mentioned that you posted a few positive Baccarat systems if anyone is interested. I am, where can I find the postings?

    If you would please, I would like for you to run one more test. Use a 6 step Marty and play a session to a win of 32 units with a starting bankroll of 192 units. Stop game when no more than 192 units are lost no matter how much ahead. and let's look at those results. Thanks.
     

  8. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Active Member

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    random posters -- exactly, as a random poster, you have established no credibility neither to your reports, nor to your self, with less than half-assed report.

    Besides, that was a suggestion
    If I intended to give you order, rest assured you would have already jumped & delivered by now not even daring or needing to ask how high & how far making sure everything is tip-top to the last dot.

    Then again, by what I've seen till now -- the report constitution, the attitude -- I wouldn't hire for a cent/h, nor for free; less the willingness & self-initiative to answer to the call, that what I give you the credit for; but even the motives for that are questionable .. & already outlined


    & f*** **u Mako; the only reason you punched the like is for his misinterpreted response .. for you hold some grudge towards me based on some f**&ed up unknown to me reason
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2021
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  9. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Looking at the graph 'Gregory Baccarat 1', what was the highest unit win? From that point subtract 192 units and tell me where we are at. The graph demonstrates that there was a high win in the beginning then took a nose-dive that illustrates long run. Isn't the whole idea to quite before the strategy enters the long run?
     
  10. ehtelgaeb

    ehtelgaeb Active Member

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    I don’t want to get into the merits of the system but the best craps simulator out there is Wincraps by Cloud City Software. There is a free version but it’s $20 for the unlocked version and it’s the best $20 you will ever spend on gambling simulator software.

    cloudcitysoftware dot com
     
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  11. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    A winning system will have a positive result, with an profit curve on the upslope to infinity. Yours has a definite downslope, going negative relatively quickly.

    Maybe we have different goals. I prefer a system that will always hit new highs, that will do better the longer I bet it. There may be short term losses, but I know that new highs are on the horizon given enough play.

    I am happy that you have been having good results. I hope it continues for you

    https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/repeat-6-system.22513/

    https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/pppp-bet-b-update.22290/

    Okay, no problem
     
  12. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    To me, the whole idea is to have a method wherein the longer I bet it the better it does. I don't really want to bet a system where disaster is looming ahead and I feel that I need to stop play on any upswing before I lose my bankroll.

    The highest unit win? It depends upon where you start on the curve. There is a concept called Maximum Adverse Excursion, or Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown. You have to assume that you started betting at the worst possible point on the testing chart, inflicting maximum damage to your bankroll. This is how you determine minimum bankroll required. Eyeballing the chart you would start betting about +1800 units and end at -15,000 units for a total loss of -16,800 units. The bankroll required would be 16,800 units and you would have lost all of it.

    Now if you were lucky enough to start betting on one of the troughs on the chart you could have made +1500 units or more before the next downward leg. But do you really want to depend on luck?
     
  13. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    It was not worded as a suggestion. I have been knocking around the forums on various sites for enough years to have earned some credibility. I don't know you, though.

    Ha. If you believe that, you don't know me very well.

    Financially secure. Not looking for a job, thanks.

    I just don't like orders ... from anyone. Try "As a suggestion, I feel that coders should", something like that. Also maybe change your profile image to something less confrontational. Just a couple of suggestions. Have a nice day.
     
  14. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Good day Fathead, thanks for turning me on to your Baccarat system. Have you tested it on Craps? It would have exactly the same results except for one big difference; If I am using a 100.00 base unit and I have Martyred to the 4th step of 800.00 and am on Banker, and I win, I only get back 760.00. It is a fact you cannot dispute, playing the system on craps would get you to a higher profit quicker. Either way, it seems to show great potential. The one drawback to me is you sometimes have to wait out quite a few hands before a trigger. But if it is a long term winner who can complain about the wait time for a trigger to appear. I have been testing the system on Craps and it is showing good results so far.
     
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  15. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    You are welcome. Hopefully my efforts will help someone out there. I always subtract the 5% Banker commission during my testing. Testing without deducting commission is just wasting everyone's time. Banker actually has a lower house edge than craps, even after commission, because Banker wins at greater than 50% (50.7%).

    No, I have not tested it on craps, maybe I should. Yes, both of those systems would require extreme patience and discipline. Most people would not be able to play them. At least they show a profit, which is not the norm for nearly all ideas that I have tested.

    I am glad that you are showing positive results. I guess you are talking about the Repeat 6 system. There were long periods of losing in that profit curve so you would have to have faith if you hit a rough patch.
     
  16. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

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    David: No amount of permutation or anti-permutation betting can work, regardless of game. It's been tested to death for nearly a hundred years and is one of the easiest play methods to test.

    You're simply in a hot spell, similar to the upward trend on fathead's chart from attempt 40,000 to 54,000. You're winning while two other people at the table are betting identically with different permutations and losing. That's all.

    And hey, as long as your run lasts, milk it, why not. But when it turns south, don't chase it thinking you're just on some bad streak and that it "has" to go back to winning. Take your profits and abandon it, it's -EV and always will be.

    Regardless, thanks for sharing it, and thanks to fathead for doing the work.
     
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  17. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Here you go.

    Gregory Craps 2.png
     
  18. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Mako, appreciate the comments. What exactly is the purpose of this Gambling Forum? If it is true as most all say, every system loses in the long run, then why develop any systems at all? Then the sole purpose of this forum becomes nothing but don't even try because you are wasting your time. However, my approach to developing a system is to win then get out before the long run downward spiral happens.
     
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  19. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

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    Permutations systems, or betting against a pattern to repeat (or for a pattern to repeat) don't work. Now you can focus your efforts on other systems, I suggest you learn about repeaters versus uniques versus unhits if focused on roulette, particularly within a 37 spin span.

    No one said we can't develop new systems, all I'm helping you understand is that the road you've gone down has been done prior...and failed.

    Cheers
     
  20. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

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    Thanks, that chart appears to be more realistic. I am sill very interested to see your Baccarat strategy played on Craps.
     

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