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Baccarat Flat Betting banker selectively all shoe

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by JacobBlaze, May 20, 2022.

  1. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    More shoes,

    $100 kangaroo kitchen units
    Playing Solo, free hands
    5% kummishion (Punkys fav word)

    6 shoes played
    -1 total not including kummmmmishion

    24 may 1708

    W
    W
    W
    L
    +2

    24 may 1734

    W
    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    +2

    24 may 2357

    L
    L
    W
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    -4

    25 may 0030

    W
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    -4

    25 may 0130

    W
    W
    W
    L
    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    +3

    25 may 0200

    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    W
    L

    Even
     
  2. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    "The above win-loss registry produces a 50-50 win rate"

    It's +6 how did you compute?
     
  3. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    I want to move up to $500 or $1000 a unit but will only do so on winnings.

    In my other thread i tested various progressiins but feel more comfortable flat betting. But if my kitchen testing shows a consistent flat bet winner I will maybe incorporate progressions, they are fine at $10 $20 bets but for me it's not so easy at $100 bets etc
     
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  4. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    And this

    ((Disclaimer I’m using a minuscule fictional 50:1% win ratio to emphasise a point. ITS not a pissing competition of WIN % ratios if you claim to get get 80% on roulette good for you or 72% on craps good for you , reading and comprehension , reading and comprehension people. ))

    Gentlemen , chicken or the egg theory.

    The theory of flat betting as I see it , only my opinion.

    If we can look back and see on average that we (“ generic” we ) assume the collective strike rate is 50:1% . The argument will always hold huge volumes of water to be able to look back and say

    “ hey , why flat bet? I’m getting 50:1% returns including any bank comish or 1/2 price. Shoot, I really should be either Martying or at least run a rudimentary progression. The historical data supports a NON FLAT bet approach”

    The trouble here is one is retro fitting a past completed event ( all results leading to the minuscule 50:1% strike ratio) to a whimsical future thought of turbocharging a higher profit. On paper, née the whimsical thought, the perfect world scenario you convert the 50:1% to a profit without the understanding of why one ( myself as an example) is better to flat bet.
    You ( generic you) assume that you have the sustainability of bankroll, the sustainability of NON error play, the sustainability of a continuous betting agenda ( most of you play live dealer shoes be it stadium or table it is a finite situation in number of hands dealt) being a infinity situation where you can take the progressive bet to another shoe and continue with your method , so that is not going to work in real world currency.

    Thinking back on your record does indeed seem excellent to Marty or progressive bet.

    You are eliminating the human component in being able to handle the massive drawdown that you will all encounter with the ever present blakswan in everyone selection criteria, but the whimsical hindsight glosses over that aspect as all others.

    There really is no holy grail, we come close to achieving a relative parity of sorts to allow ourselves to achieve that 50:1% by design of personal selection criteria, rules and bankroll etc. I’m here to NOT GAMBLE, yes with my selection criteria of 16+ wins in a row looking back I too Have fallen into whimsical hindsight Marty or progressive betting to BOLSTER my profit ratio.

    But

    When I pull my head in and actually remember that on occasions I have had sessions -8 losses in a row, then a 1 win session, then a -5 losses in a row session. Then I calculate the real cost of the whimsical Marty or progress bet both mentally, emotionally and financially and go Nar, I don’t gamble, I aim to maintain my strike ratio above 50:1% the flat bet will look after my psychology and I will still generate a sustainable profit regime.

    I can leave the table AT anytime I CHOOSE flat betting, I’m not restricted by being so many units down ( because of Marty or progressive betting) and being under the psychological pressure of trying to make a game ( at this moment in time) that is NOT conducive to MY selection criteria to continue to bet because I’m compelled to recap the excessive drawdown I’m currently in.

    Yes I can look back and say historically I would benefit financially from the Marty/process bet but as posted elsewhere this forum I don’t need the extra drama for the one or two extra units. I get in , I get out , I win , I lose, I don’t fret about anything.

    Those of you that Marty/ progress bet, I guarantee you all don’t go home every day happy. Are you in a drawdown hole for hours, days? Emotional and physically how does that feel? Do yo talk to yourself in your head about the day play of losses as you drive home? Maybe should have stopped early with a smaller drawdown or the one unit profit for the session but that didn’t cover the 30 units from yesterday afternoon drawdown? ? ?

    Me , nar, I don’t have that problem listed above, I pull the pin when I choose . The 50:1% ENSURES peaceful flat betting.

    Me , yes , whimsically in hindsight, sure I agree, BUT why work that hard? Cheers
     
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  5. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    The flat net is because NOTHING is guaranteed in real time, in the past the % returns looks good. But real time, no . That we all know and if you don’t then you are the ones keeping the casinoverse viable and functioning for the rest of us , imho. Cheers
     
  6. Garfield

    Garfield Active Member

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    In gambling, to each his own....
     
  7. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I really don't see the difference. Anyone can pull the pin, have a black swan event. Does flat betting when achieving 49% win after a thousand wagers make one not "fret?"

    Your assumption seems to be that flat betting is better only if one could win 51%+. And if not then who cares, just lose and go home. Good progressive betting does not necessarily have such a high ABS. My comment to Grasshopper RE his 50-50 win shows that the high bet was only 150 using a 25 base and achieved 8 units or 200, not zero. The ABS was less than the 100 flat bet!

    WL GRID.png

    I got this from Stetson Bailey's book. It shows a 50 50 game. Add an L anywhere to get 33L and 32 W which gives you just about the Expected Value in Baccarat of 49:2%. Add a W anywhere and it will give you a 50:7% win. Start anywhere you want and continue through all the decisions in any order. Of course you will need another win someplace to overcome the vig. But the beauty of it is that you don't have to win more hands than lose to profit!!!

    If one can win substantially MORE than 51% . .. Soxfan is winning 1.35 units every 20 wagers on average (ahem). Doesn't that equate to about 55% strike rate? At that strike rate the problem is only table limits! Variance is going to reduce as strike rate increases.

    J
     
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  8. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    I concur, the information you provided is correct and this should be applicable to most.

    For mine, that is ME only, as I’m the one that deals with my own life choices both physically and mentally plus , here’s my lack of math skills showing, spiritually and financially. I’m the individual that has experience and explained previous threads that for ME to continue in the baccarat world I did indeed develop a selection criteria that allows ME faith in MY bet selection . As I have stated MY emotional tsunami swings using either a Marty or mild progression staking starting with a moderate base unit that allows the range required to not have to have someone placing chips on your behalf because one has exceeded the table maximum.

    Yes I have tried it.
    I don’t care for it .

    MY , ME , capital above is not shouting, its to emphasise a point, that it’s a personal thing, I’m concerned with what works for me.

    Personally been there done that. I used the mind set initially to turbo boost profit take home but found myself actually earning not a high unit % return in real dollar terms verses the combined effort ( as previously mentioned) that it requires.

    MY answer to MYSELF, big X$ ( which I actually took time to incrementally get to both financially and emotionally, posted previous posts) bet unit flat betting, any table, live or stadium, I’m below the maximum at all times, table limits and emotions limit also.

    THAT works for ME, that is MY primary concern in money management via baccarat. Big X$ as the one unit profit for the session , in My life, yes I can live with that on a daily basis.

    I did initially start the whole process years and years ago with the $10 basic unit as was the table limit $10-$5000. Yes I was not satisfied with the $50 or $30 profit Marty or progress staking and found this made me stay longer, work harder, becoming emotionally battered by the huge fluctuations in the betting trajectories for at the end of the day to come home with a loss , or complete bankroll death on many occasions.

    For ME something had to be done, I developed a selection criteria, I trialed it with Marty/progress staking it delivered the same personal previous posted for $30 reward for a day pay. Nope not for me.
    Bigger unit, something that covers the cost of one day’s effort, bigger bankroll, bigger mindset, I grew the initial small unit start up , I didn’t spend any of the money on life ( drinking food tolls petrol living costs groceries etc) I was winning at baccarat, that was an entirely separate account .I’m not gambling ,I’m not looking for the degen gambler rush so many fall into the excitement, we see it all the time don’t we. I was looking forward to increase my unit /bankroll the journey would indicate if my selection criteria was viable.

    Did I increase my bankroll? Did I increase my unit size? Yes.

    Jimski your advice is excellent and probably covers a huge number of readers here that could and should use what you have posted those who are not necessarily similar to me.

    I offered initially, my opinion on flat betting , it’s not the benchmark nor the regimentally enforced way of doing things. Just what works for me , maybe my level of greed is not as pronounced as other posters have posted other threads similar to taking the casinoverse to the cleaners etc. I will harvest the golden egg but not eat the golden goose that laid it.

    Oh by the way here in skipptophia a grasshopper is a kangaroo.
    Lol.
    Cheers
     
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  9. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It's all good. I think about flat betting a lot. Particularly because I'm pretty sure my strike rate is North of 50% enough to make it work and after another 60%+ day today with 40 W and 21 L I think twice. One thing that prevents me is the shoe win rate. Progressions tend to have a higher shoe win rate and since I generally only play 3-5 shoes a few times a week I can avoid drawdowns.

    OK. Grasshopper is now a Kangaroo.

    J
     
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  10. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    My strike rate is above 50:00001 % , I was only using it that as a talk point. Yes the high % =easy flat play imho.

    Oh lol , in skipptophia we condense all names, kangaroo is to long so we would just say , skip ,as in short for “skippy” the bush kangaroo epic legendary character. Or just “roo” or even “kanga”.
    we can use kangaroo to indicate mental illness, as in “ he’s a few Roos short in the top paddock” lol. Cheers
     
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  11. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, that +2.15 units nets profits combine for both shoe, hey hey.
     
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  12. ehtelgaeb

    ehtelgaeb Active Member

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    Kanga and Roo are also characters in the Winnie the Pooh stories. (I have grandkids).
     
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  13. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    Did you ever play around with baileys progressions in that book? They are interesting +1/-1 flat
     
  14. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    Well said Punky, that post describes where I am at in my gambling evolution also. And it comes down to a personal thing of "why" do you play this game. And a personality thing of how you handle your finances and Bankroll etc. I tell people all the time I'm not a Gambler and they laugh at me I'm at the casino all the time that I want to be there either playing poker or Baccarat. But I guess punky wrote what I mean by that "I'm not degen looking for the next gambling high that will fulfill some "life" need for me". "Degen gambler rush as punky put it"

    I do.like to gamble.it up and have fun at the $10 face up super six table as my slutty time, and that is fun. Sitting and grinding for +1,2,3 units a shoe at the $100,$200,$300 level is kinda boring actually. And although I haven't found the golden egg laying method like punky, (maybe I did but keep.changing methods lol) it's still fun adapting and trying to figure out this game. But I think the old.saying that if you can't beat the game flat betting progressions will make it worst in the long run (for me,that has been the case and didn't like betting high units relying on that last 49/48 shot to be even or +1. I've tried it, but also didn't like the emotional toll.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2022
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  15. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    Nice, have you ever made your bet selection public 40/21 is impressive.
     
  16. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    Sox,

    So you only won 3 units combined in.those shoes? Do you take virtual wins or losses before beginning your bets on your shoes? I can't PM you can you PM me. I got 300 messages but I guess I have to invite someone still and I have no.friends.
     
  17. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    I sent you pm . Try that.
    Cheeeeese
     
  18. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Then you understand a “few roos loose in the top paddock” as in you look like a crazy guy running around with the kids, lol , enjoy and hope you have as much fun as the grandchildren have with you. Cheers
     
  19. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Tell them you're a Professional Gambler, or Semi Pro Player if they know you have a job, that should stop the laughs. ;-)

    Actually I don't, rather it is a means to and end, cash. Yes it is fun and a great feeling winning, but when you place a bet, it is stressful, will it win or lose, sitting sandwiched between people shouting at each other, coughing, somebody sits next to you and their leg is up and down like a pneumatic drill cos they are drunk as a skunk on serotonin. I'd rather not be there, nothing is ever guaranteed, no other current means of income and not looking either, so I do it, but also appreciate it could be hard divorcing myself from the game. I may dabble with playing online in the not to distant future.
     
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  20. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    +1,-1 flat appeared to be his favorite. But it must be modified lest downturn can necessitate 4 or 5 WIAR just to recoup. So use a cutback when things go too far south. It's not unlike JK adding another string to soften the curve. At that juncture the casino owes you some wins. It's just matter of patience.

    No I don't use that progression but used properly It's viable IMO.

    J
     
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