Baccarat Idea for ''UNBALANCED''!

Your simple question has caused me a fair amount of consternation. I'm remembering the day I first learned that my own mind was lying to me and that I could not make future decisions based on my own experience as it was too small of a sample size.

It is both liberating and disheartening to have that epiphany.

Of course, the first epiphany I ever had was the sudden and unexpected realization that I had never had an epiphany.

 

No Duh. If I paid to read that in a book.... Seriously.... lol

While lots of progressive slots pay out around the same time there is no guarantee you will hit it when it happens even with a team if you do, good for you. If you don't.....
And, that is all a video poker machine is, a slot.
You can buy into the fact your decision will influence the hand but in reality they are set with a pay back just like slots.
I know a guy lived off his slot winnings for two years watching the approximate time they paid out.
Then it dried up.... Makes a good story though.

I have a tail of two college math professors. Both teaching at major universities. Someone close to me majored in math and went to both schools. Sat through the professor giving a gambling lecture and the math. Long story short everything I told this person was wrong and proved wrong with math. Next professor same lecture different belief on everything I had explained stated it was 100% correct and could be proven by the math.

That is why I try to stay away from the math discussions. Really!!! They are no help. Especially in Baccarat.

 

"No duh" was the response I was going for.

I will add only this: It truly saddens me that math isn't the solution for all problems. It always feels to me like it should be.

Can we agree that it would be AWESOME if one could simply crunch some numbers with indisputable equations and everyone would come up with the same answer so we could all agree on everything??? I'm talking about far more than baccarat.

It's my idea of heaven.

 

Thanks Frank. I suppose everything comes down to maths. Be it reversion to mean, Jae’s version of OG, Martingale etc. Perhaps not in the exact mathematical way of definite definite.

So there was a group of people who input all the variables for horse racing and made hundreds of millions, some say billions. I mentioned this before. Track conditions, weather conditions, jockey, jockey weight, horse, horse weight, trainer etc etc.

The mathematical equivalent would be a formulation that can predict the results of the next hand.

But as we now stand, we study other branches of mathematics in order to predict a likely outcome.

That would be good. Rather than hear a mathematician repeat and repeat that the game cannot be beaten. I sometimes wonder why they are in a gambling forum. To forewarn that the game cannot be beaten and one should stay away? If so, for one’s peace of mind and soul, say once and disappear please.

Otherwise discuss something winnable and/or other intangible factors that makes a winner. In every thing, there are defining elements. In winning an Olympic gold for example. If an opponent has winning times all beyond a competitor, the mathematician would assign zero winning chance for the competitor. But the human spirit should not yield. Of course, not stupidly just dreaming and rehashing old habits for old performances. He/she reviews, practice, find new methods, improve and then wins. History is full of these examples.

We should all be students of the game and humility is key.

 

This is the only thing you need to understand. I have posted previously similar, you have also posted similar lungyeh previous to your last post.the quote can be applied to the math question we asked.
Cheers

 

Personally I cut frankstar some slack as his main field of expertise is vid poker, and is no slouch. He also conforms to the Mako quote in the previous post of mine. He found a way to achieve the results to win , he ran a team, ( business model) , his team was lawed out , he reinvented his business model to sole trader. From what I gather from his posts apart from his team he didn’t run around the factory spreading “the word” .
He had qualified that his mother had an interest in baccarat which he tried tell/show to her the math doesn’t back up her claims.
Many people would not be able to understand or use the information frank has in regard to vid poker, so I would see why he suggested he doesn’t pass the information to the wider public ( in the past as he was actually playing) as vid poker is a finite activity.

That being there are only x amount of machines and if frank told everyone, explained in detail and helped them to learn, he’s shooting his hip pocket in the wallet.
As for his comments on baccarat hardly offensive and in all fairness the vid poker/ AP thread is hardly a go to place as per demise worldwide vid poker machine being replaced by infinity slots ( that’s a no must hit jackpot slot machines) so yeah the man is reaching out for light entertainment, forum interaction. You have to admit there is a significant element of humour to his posts, deserves a laugh emoji.
Cheers

 

I believe I’m labeled a Sanctamonious ass if I recall correctly for saying something similar ish , ( reference being you are speaking about something you know to be correct in reference to yourself) I of course disagree with that posters label of me. But I’m happy to take the tag on board .
I am in no way calling you that by the way. Just pointing out we have to dumb down some remarks for some softer readers here. Lol. Cheers

 

When taking results out of a BAC shoe and putting them into groups using( permutations+combinations+formulas appllied) you can change the math giving the player a house edge,in BJ card counting is used, in BAC there is a group that has 48 total results that is it and out of the 48 26 are odd and 22 are even,betting the odd gives 4 more chances which is huge in this game

 

I genuinely liked everything you just said. I'm not sure why, but it struck some sort of emotional chord and I teared up a bit.

Perhaps it is my over-reliance on only mathematically provable strategies and having to wait on the bench, or the side-lines, being only witness to the success of those willing to leave math behind and venture out into the great unknown.

I can't say baccarat isn't beatable. I can only say, that I can't beat it using math.

You've heard of Fifty Shades of Gray? This is more like Two-Hundred and Fifty-Six shades of gray...

 

I think you are saying I'm a joke. I have taken this as the highest form of compliment.

And BTW: thank you. It's been a rough year in so many ways I cannot even express. Contributing to this forum is my non-serious guilty pleasure each morning, before I have to leave home and deal with what now passes for my life. I have many friends that are very old and passing away.

I suppose I'm just in "help others" mode at the moment.

(Cue Marlon Brando Accent) One of these days I may come to you and ask for a favor...

 

Ahh, I miss the good old days when the worst thing I was called was, "A Sanctamonious ass". I wax nostalgic and digress...

These days the people who have taken the time to really know me, fire off insults with far more accurate slurs I cannot refute.

Peace out... Off to work...

 

Frank I definitely agree with you in terms of beating the math of the game. Since the thread is called Unbalanced, perhaps a way to utilize math (or maths) is the following:

In a four-hand series, you can get one of the following sequences:

BBBB
BBBP
BBPB
BPBB
PBBB
BBPP
BPPB
BPBP
PBPB
PBBP
PPBB
BPPP
PBPP
PPBP
PPPB
PPPP

Depending on how you define Balanced, you could say that as long as there are EXACTLY two results of one and two results of the other, you have “balance”. Everything else is “imbalanced”. Some people argue that PPPP and BBBB are balanced. I don’t see it that way. Based on how I see it, 10 of the 16 possible four-hand series (62.5%) form. So at any given time, betting for imbalance for a four-hand series, you SHOULD be successful.

HOWEVER, let’s say you have a three-hand series of BBB. What do you do? By definition, this will result in an imbalance regardless of the next outcome. Also, look at the string BBB in the 16 possible outcomes above. What is most likely to hit next, B or P? Either of them! They both have one outcome. So you are still at (slightly less than) 50%.

How would you bet this? Many folks like the streak of a BBB and will bet B. Conversely would you bet P or B on a PPP? There are those who would bet B here regardless because B is supposed to come out more than P hence the commission that has been applied. Or do you run with the streak?

Even on a PBP run, an imbalance would be to bet on P. However looking above, it’s just as likely that a B come up than a P based on the 16 possible four-hand series that can form. It’s quite the conundrum!

Now what I see on Myrtle’s posts in here, this is taken deeper to imbalance even more results. I haven’t gotten that far in my research, but it’s “on my list”!

 

What I find most interesting about the 62.5% number, which is spot on and accurate, is that it almost perfectly mirrors the percentage chance of hitting a jackpot with a known probability in a single cycle--calculated using binomial therm. I DON'T KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS. I think it might mean something.

EXAMPLE: Hitting a Royal Flush on a 5/8 Job Progressive has a probability of 1 in 32,573. Using binomial therm, if you divide 32,572 by 32,573 you get 0.9999693...and if you multiply that by itself (y/X) 32,572 times you come up with the result of 0.367873794. Which when subtracted from ONE renders 0.632126206. AKA: 63.2%

That seems too similar and suspiciously like it might mean something.

Of course I'm still trying to figure out what my ex meant when she said, "get out I never want to see you again".

 

See what you all did...I'm now late for work. Thank you!

 

Just my thoughts try to stay away from strict permutations they do not work, unbalance or balance will end you up in a row boat with one ore, from a math point add at least one more shoe result to each line, groups of 5 is where the player starts to get an edge,understand how many combinations there are with in those groups

 

I've been up a creek without a paddle for most of my life. I am also on the freeway driving and should sign off.

Why do I find this all so compelling. I will seek counseling.

Cheers mates.

 

Just a quick thought. I see there was mention of "why groups of four and not five, or six, or whatever."

There is this VERY STRONG human tendency to group things. When someone says "last week" you immediately know they are referring to the previous group of seven days. This is however a totally made up human construct.

A year is the exception, because it represents the time it takes the Earth to travel around the sun from where it is to the same spot.

Weeks and months are just confabulations. In fact many cultures use totally different systems.

So my point was only this: WHEN GROUPING be careful those groups are meaningful and real and not simply constructs of human nature to find order in chaos.

NOT SAYING YOU ARE DOING THAT--JUST SAYING "BE CAREFUL" (hell even I do it, it's hard not to...really hard)

 

After playing for years I've never paid any attention to "The Roads", not all casinos display them on score boards, some casinos don't even have score boards.

What works best for Covid?

Do not use "Balanced vs Unbalanced" better referred as "Symmetrical vs Asymmetrical" (BBBB would be considered Asymmetrical BTW) For the game of BACCARAT.

Been there done it, it is better to deploy "Symmetrical vs Asymmetrical" against all 3 EC's at the Roulette table.

It should be fairly obvious why it is not suitable for Baccarat??


The most common occurrence at the Bacc' table are???


Singles and doubles consists of 75% of all results in the short to medium term, go figure.

 

Dr Tom did not come up with Balanced vs. Unbalanced', he is just another snake oil sales man sniffing around forums for ideas which to make a buck. I did notice he was peddling my concept which I posted on forums years ago.

I first mistakenly called it Balanced vs. Unbalanced', when "Symmetrical vs Asym" would have been more apt, I first used the term on the defunct GamblersGlen site.

No there isn't, MY concept of "Balanced" means an equal number of Bankers and Players within an equal number of decisions, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 etc.
BBBB or PPPP is Asymmetrical.

 

This is what I was saying earlier - my concept of Balanced (Symmetrical) is that there are six combinations in a four-hand series. Therefore taking away BBBB and PPPP from Symmetrical (Balanced) makes ten combinations in a four-hand series for Asymmetrical (Imbalanced) or a 62.5% advantage. The issue there becomes what do you play after BBB or PPP since either result still creates an Asymmetrical series? Or do you just skip it?