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Baccarat Is there a limit to Randomness?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Junket King, Aug 1, 2019.

  1. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    As 'bet against the continuance type of player, I've of the mindset that randomness does have limits.

    (Strictly for the game of Baccarat)

    I'm not referring to about 20 chops, or 2-1's, or repeating 2's, a 16 hand streak, or back to back 8 streaks (rather what surrounds them). While the outcomes are obviously random, those patterns I would describe as pretty uniform (symmetrical). I'm more interested in the odd ball patterns that we can see.

    From my own experience and observations at the tables, if you see something along the lines of;

    BB
    PPP
    BBBBBBBB
    PPP
    B

    then later in the shoe;

    BB
    PPP
    BBBBBBBB
    PPP?
    ?


    I'm betting P will go to 4, just the way I view the game! I've noticed Asian players will follow the pattern, thinking and hoping it will continue forever. Back in the day, if I was betting FLD, I stay on it, as I'm only going to lose one bet, but that was then.

    I'm curious to what other odd-ball repeating patterns other members on this forum have seen?

    Here are a few examples at what I'm getting at.

    Captureamazing shoe.JPG

    Two examples here, a 17 hand pattern which then starts repeating itself. After the second 10 hand Banker streak, it has increased to 27 hands. That 17 hand pattern has odds of 131,072/1

    For it to repeat exactly as shown, the odds are 4,294,967,296/1

    Take the second 2 by 4 repeats, the first pairings have odds of 4096/1, but for it to repeat exactly, the odds become 262,144/1, a huge difference.

    Here is another example

    Four streaks buttressing repeating 2's bookmarks by singles. 22 hands (4,194,304/1), then a repeat of that exact pattern 44 hands 17,592,186,044,41/1.

    Capture BIZZARE.JPG

    I think there lies potential value, so long as you wait and can capture the win within a tight series of bets, which is an unknown and still yet to be determined. This kind of leads on from my recent posts of a shoe mirroring itself. The odds of that continuing indefinitely are so huge for what are basically a coin flips, I've always wondered when is the right time to make a move to bet against continuance?

    The same can also be applied (which I do, do today) to the 2nd line hole gap, in the majority of cases, if not all, I always nail it (truly).

    If you get a real choppy shoe like this;

    BBB
    P
    B
    P
    B
    P ( 2ND LINE HOLE GAP OF 5)
    BB
    P
    B
    P
    B
    P (2nd line HG currently sitting at 5, either bet the double P, or observe, if it goes B then bet P)

    Ditto, 2nd line HG is 3, then 3, bet accordingly, it will not repeat, either 2 or 4. The patterns themselves have to be distinct, ignoring 2nd lines HG's of 1.

    This is not my main mode of attack of the game, but if I notice such things, I'm on them, and don't recall having failed (then again I've haven't had much sleep either LOL).

    In case you are wondering if the shoes above blow my theory out the water, they are doctored, fake shoes to highlight my point. In hundreds of thousands of shoes played, never seen anything like it and never will.

    Anybody care to share any REAL shoes in regards to bizarre repeating "sections". The only one that springs to my mind, it's hard for me to forget, as it cleaned me out. Tis was a BPPPP that repeated 4 times 16 hands in total, after the third occurrence I bet for the double Banker and against another P4 streak, wanting to make so fast quick cash, instead the casino made some fast quick cash.

    Have never seen anything come close to that in the 10 years since.

    Feel free to share, because I would appreciate this theory of mine being dismissed, then I'll stop taking notice of odd-ball events and I fully accept this is Anthropomorphizing the Game.



    And I sincerely trust I did not come across like aysmbacgay with this thread.
     
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  2. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I used to think in terms of betting against pattern but it drove me bonkers. At basic it anti-streaks/patterns, and yer gonna bet against chop, double chop threes by threes, four by fours, etc. So, ya probably need to pre-define those things rather than try and see and bet against on a fly during a shoe, hey hey.
     
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  3. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Well-Known Member

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    The roulette math boys will tell you there is no limit to random

    Technically they are right

    But there are just some things that won’t happen. Like you won’t get 36 different numbers in 36 spins. What is their answer to that? You haven’t ran enough spins

    So it’s a weird question. The technical answer isn’t the same as the reality answer :)
     
  4. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Roulette wheels are spinning every day in god knows how many casinos around the world and have done so for the last 200 years or so and still nobody has reported all 37/38 numbers appearing in 37/38 spins! It just doesn't happen full stop!
     
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  5. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Well-Known Member

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    Yea that’s what I mean

    It’s possible, but it doesn’t happen

    That’s why I’m saying there’s a technical answer and a reality answer.
     
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  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I'm of the opinion there are limits.

    I've played probably over 200,000 shoes, I've never seen any odd-ball pattern repeat for an entire shoe, or probably 3 or 4 times in a shoe, such as the Shanghai staircase, mainly due to baccarat being a closed game, unlike roulette

    Yes you do need to pre-define before making any move, that will come down to table experience, I would not move against 4 x 4 streaks, but may do against the 5th forming, but you got to think ahead and work out how many bets are you willing to risk against this.

    The same applies to the 2nd hole gap. Had a shoe few hours back, it went

    PP
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    PP you can almost guarantee if won't be followed by the 2nd line HG of 5 and it wasn't, it was 2. I didn't bet it, as something else kicked in, but for those players that like to pick their spots when to bet???
     
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  7. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Here is one of the biggest secrets that I keep secret, until now. When you see multiple formed patterns that are like sequences as 3 , 4, or greater in size, you need to just get one win from it. Don't try to win all the shape of the form. You won't get this until you try it and and get experienced at it. Get the win, don't get the eventual loss. Some of you will get this.
     
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  8. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Well-Known Member

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    What do you mean exactly.
     
  9. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Hey, before it starts, let's keep this thread about the game of Baccarat, cheers ;)

    Just finished this shoe, thought I would post it here, as it highlights my view about betting against continuation.

    upload_2019-8-2_15-19-48.png

    Great shoe after the event!!

    I did ride most of those streaks except the first Player one, while the shoe was unfolding, I'm thinking this would have been a great shoe for FLD, alas we can't see around corners, so I have my own way of approaching the game. Anyhow I'm noticing the 2nd line gap, four times it is "1", I'm thinking, the entire shoe ain't gonna be like this. Sure enough I let things run it's course, while I'm doing my usual trigger based plays, after 5 x 2nd line singles, I'm thinking this is going to chop soon. Made a move after 2nd to last double bank for the chop, WIN. and rode all those chops after the 3rd one.

    Decent shoe for me, W27 L19 for some extra icing on the cake.
     
  10. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'll try to illustrate it with these coin tosses with one zero once in a while for a house edge.

    [CODE}
    | X | -- 1
    | X | -- 2
    | X | -- 3
    | X | -- 4
    | X | -- 5
    | X | -- 6
    | X | -- 7
    | X | -- 8
    | X | -- 9
    | X | -- 10
    | X | -- 11
    | X | -- 12
    | X | -- 13
    | X | -- 14
    | X | -- 15
    | X | -- 16
    | X | -- 17
    | X | -- 18
    | X | -- 19
    | X | -- 20
    | X | -- 21
    | X | -- 22
    | X | -- 23
    | X | -- 24
    | X | -- 25
    | X | -- 26
    | X | -- 27
    | X | -- 28
    | X | -- 29
    | X | -- 30
    | X | -- 31
    | X | -- 32
    | X | -- 33
    | X | -- 34
    | X | -- 35
    | X | -- 36
    | X | -- 37
    | X | -- 38
    | X | -- 39
    | X | -- 40
    | X | -- 41
    | X | -- 42
    | X | -- 43
    | X | -- 44
    | X | -- 45
    | X | -- 46
    | X | -- 47
    | X | -- 48
    | X | -- 49
    | X | -- 50
    | X | -- 51
    | X | -- 52
    | X | -- 53
    | X | -- 54
    | X | -- 55
    | X | -- 56
    | X | -- 57
    | X | -- 58
    | X | -- 59
    | X | -- 60
    | X | -- 61
    | X | -- 62
    | X | -- 63
    | X | -- 64
    |------| -- 65
    | X | -- 66
    | X | -- 67
    | X | -- 68
    | X | -- 69
    | X | -- 70
    | X | -- 71
    | X | -- 72
    | X | -- 73
    | X | -- 74
    | X | -- 75
    | X | -- 76
    | X | -- 77
    | X | -- 78
    | X | -- 79
    | X | -- 80
    | X | -- 81
    | X | -- 82
    | X | -- 83
    | X | -- 84
    | X | -- 85
    | X | -- 86
    | X | -- 87
    | X | -- 88
    |------| -- 89
    | X | -- 90
    | X | -- 91
    | X | -- 92
    |------| -- 93
    | X | -- 94
    | X | -- 95
    | X | -- 96
    | X | -- 97
    | X | -- 98
    | X | -- 99
    | X | -- 100
    [/CODE]

    From line 66 to 85 you have a single hitting on the right side while you have different sizes hitting on the left side. I'm suggesting that you just take the single winner on the left side. You then virtual bet until the next right side hits. You are just playing the single on the right side as the trend and just taking one from the left side. So you get 6 winners and the final lost bet when a double hits on the right side. You could take two from the left side but you will end up losing once in the middle. But taking two would actually pay more. I'm trying to show the value of just taking one from a trend. Or if the trend looks real good on the strong side then take two. I play a game where knowing what enough is, is all about. I only need 3 net wins to pay for all my retirement traveling. I find that's enough. In this way I have turned the casino into my own personal ATM machine. The trick is to not be greedy. The other trick is not to be scared. I've never seen a losing streak last more than any monster sized win streak.

    The casino needs you to pay them through the losing streaks in order for the house edge to actually get you.
     
  11. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    OOPS!
    Code:
    | X    | -- 1
    |    X | -- 2
    |    X | -- 3
    |    X | -- 4
    | X    | -- 5
    | X    | -- 6
    |    X | -- 7
    | X    | -- 8
    |    X | -- 9
    |    X | -- 10
    | X    | -- 11
    | X    | -- 12
    | X    | -- 13
    |    X | -- 14
    | X    | -- 15
    |    X | -- 16
    |    X | -- 17
    |    X | -- 18
    | X    | -- 19
    | X    | -- 20
    | X    | -- 21
    |    X | -- 22
    |    X | -- 23
    | X    | -- 24
    |    X | -- 25
    |    X | -- 26
    |    X | -- 27
    |    X | -- 28
    | X    | -- 29
    | X    | -- 30
    | X    | -- 31
    | X    | -- 32
    | X    | -- 33
    |    X | -- 34
    |    X | -- 35
    | X    | -- 36
    | X    | -- 37
    | X    | -- 38
    | X    | -- 39
    |    X | -- 40
    | X    | -- 41
    |    X | -- 42
    | X    | -- 43
    |    X | -- 44
    | X    | -- 45
    | X    | -- 46
    |    X | -- 47
    | X    | -- 48
    | X    | -- 49
    |    X | -- 50
    |    X | -- 51
    |    X | -- 52
    | X    | -- 53
    | X    | -- 54
    |    X | -- 55
    | X    | -- 56
    |    X | -- 57
    | X    | -- 58
    |    X | -- 59
    | X    | -- 60
    |    X | -- 61
    | X    | -- 62
    |    X | -- 63
    |    X | -- 64
    |------| -- 65
    |    X | -- 66
    | X    | -- 67
    | X    | -- 68
    | X    | -- 69
    |    X | -- 70
    | X    | -- 71
    |    X | -- 72
    | X    | -- 73
    |    X | -- 74
    | X    | -- 75
    | X    | -- 76
    | X    | -- 77
    |    X | -- 78
    | X    | -- 79
    | X    | -- 80
    | X    | -- 81
    | X    | -- 82
    |    X | -- 83
    | X    | -- 84
    |    X | -- 85
    |    X | -- 86
    | X    | -- 87
    | X    | -- 88
    |------| -- 89
    | X    | -- 90
    |    X | -- 91
    |    X | -- 92
    |------| -- 93
    | X    | -- 94
    |    X | -- 95
    |    X | -- 96
    |    X | -- 97
    |    X | -- 98
    | X    | -- 99
    | X    | -- 100
    
     
  12. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Not a lot of Baccarat traction for this thread!!!

    I'm surprising myself at the amount of success I've having observing odd-ball patterns and betting against their continuance / repeat. It maybe down to the online shoes, not sure.

    Hey, I've never been a look at the pattern type of player, to me it is all voodoo nonsense and it is fair to say most Asian players I shared tables with bet for the continuance, whereas I would bet the opposite.

    Any patterns consisting of singles and doubles are generally ignored, the exception would be a uniform 2nd line hole gap, excluding 2-1 repeats.

    Here are a couple I played last night while waiting for other events, no matter were I am at in the game, these are table minimum "fun" bets at 1u.

    BB
    P
    B
    P
    B
    P
    BB
    P
    B?

    You can more-or-less guarantee it would be pretty rare for the shoe to reproduce that exact 2nd line hole gap. Which it didn't, the next chop doubled.

    Warning, if you bet, then you are committed?

    Here is another crazy example, it ran something like this,

    PPP
    BB
    P
    BB
    PPP

    A kind of trough pattern, consisting of 11 hands, a 4096 to 1 pattern.

    Next hand;

    PPP
    BB
    P
    BB
    PPP
    B

    You could guarantee 100% the prior pattern won't repeat. However you are not going to risk 11 bets to win 1 either, again a small "fun" bet, it didn't.

    Ditto, you see some odd-ball pattern in a single shoe repeat in two different sections of that shoe, what was it followed by?

    The Shanghai staircase as it has been referred to;

    BBB
    PP
    B
    ?

    Then somewhere later in the shoe;

    BBB
    PP
    B

    I'll stick my neck out and state it is highly unlikely you will see this 3 times in a shoe, if you do, bet for the double bank.

    Online there are an abundance of unpredictable long streaks, prior to the streak was it a single or a double? I'm noticing in the vast majority of cases the opposite occurs upon end of streak (it could be an online thing or lack of sleep?).

    Another example, I usually don't miss these, due to the long streak, ok this example went against the above.

    BBB
    PPPPPPPP
    BBB

    It looked like an extended blue penis :D The last run of 3 Banks I would expect to extend to 4. If not, what proceeded the first set of 3 banks, bet it's opposite.

    ?
    PPP
    B
    PPPPPP
    B
    PPP

    I'm use to seeing chaotic patterns, not uniformity like that. I wouldn't bet the 4th P, rather would be more interested in observing what came next, compared to what came before it.

    I don't go looking or waiting for these occurrences, rather just happen to notice and if I'm in time, may take a small bite. I'm surprising myself how often I am more right than wrong!! To my way of thinking, it kinda makes sense, because random chaos shouldn't be symmetrical and if it is, don't expect that to continue, although it might ;)

    For sure this is Anthropomorphizing the game, which goes against my my rationale way of thinking. Maybe I'm just morphing into one of those crazy Baccarat cats?

    Just putting it out there, keep a look out while you're engaging your regular style of play.
     
  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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  14. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Incredibly creative. A few years ago some of us researched the concept of the most unlikely pattern occurring. It took thousands of spins to prove that the rule itself could not improve on the odds. The way it worked was that we created an array, usable lists, of oddly constructed patterns. I took 100 oddball patterns and used them with a stepped progression that had to execute perfectly in order to lose. The trick was that these selected patterns had to match perfectly at an exact moment. The pattern was selected and to kill it this sequence had to match exactly when we used it. On the next try it would randomly select a new pattern to execute the steps of the progression.

    Your pattern mismatch selection method is like Cipher Block Chaining in encryption algorithms. The last block of characters are used to encrypt the next block of characters in the data to be encrypted. The German's old Enigma machine used 5 randomly selected characters to start the block chain. Modern software uses larger blocks like 16 characters for the Blowfish algorithm.

    I know that your method of pattern block chaining on the very next block is somewhat ingenious. It requires an exact duplicate to occur. That must be very rare to see. Yet it will happen just the same. Any exact moment pattern will at some point appear and break the outcome making it no longer in your favor. The odds for exact moment repeats are way off the chart.

    My experiments were with just a few steps of double dozens where the odds were ruffly 66% to 33%. I never power tested 50 /50 odds with anything like 13 steps. If you apply your step up as you lose and step back down as you win progression to this exact moment pattern obfuscation method there might really be something to it. This is so thought provoking. The trick will be to accept the loss at a limited number of steps, and ride out the repeating pattern with virtual bets. Then begin high in the progression as it uses the step down on wins method to recover the very rare lost sequence.

    Great idea.
     
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  15. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    It's not quiet like that, but never mind...

    Easy said than done, once you have committed yourself. You kind of become locked in, win or die. I nearly died, but didn't.

    I had already lost against something else and just happened to notice this, so I thought why not take a punt. I think next time, I won't look.
    What pattern was that, I'd be sceptical any pattern was more or less-likely than any other, unless it was wrapped within a template.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2019
  16. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    1.) I agree. I was sort of brain storming the idea of an interrupted stepped progression. There probably is nothing to it.

    2.) It's the idea that the exact pattern must happen right then, perfectly, or it can't kill the progression.

    3.) It's not the pattern itself that matters being likely or unlikely. It's at the exact moment that makes it so rare. The odds are way off the chart.

    I was only imagining what a step up and step down progression would do with a seldom to lose sequence. A straight win or die progression like a Marty takes out all the bankroll when it losses. But stepping back down on seldom chances to lose is much better. I'm just brainstorming. There's probably nothing there.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2019
  17. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I agree entirely, but at the same time have been truly amazed what I have witnesses at the Baccarat tables. for a bit of fun, I dabbled with bet selection that only loses to 0.11% of any given streak of 3. It lost the first time I played it. Fuckin' crazy, absolute crazy.

    I had dropped too much already, so already screwed, I finally won the final bet which had reverted into a Marty, no time to evaluate when you have got 12 seconds.
     
  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Capture loss.JPG

    Over 4 MILLION to 1 - Jesus Wept
     
  19. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Forget the 4 million.

    Still can't get over that conglomeration above. It actually a 20 hand match, the odds of that are;

    1,099,511,627,776 /1
    (wanna try saying that, 1000 trillion......)

    One could argue that it consists of more than 20 hands if you count the first 2 Players before they go to 3. In which case the figure would be;
    17,592,186,044,416 but hey, let's not get pandantic over a few Trillion.


    The singles, doubles, seven streaks are all irrelevant. The sequence could have been anything and everything (ignoring the Ties).

    So let's put it into prospective, imagine asking somebody to flip a coin 20 times and write down the sequence of heads and tails.

    Then flipping the coin another 20 times and matching the exact same sequence. Impossible you might say, well you looking at the fucker, dodgy lackadaisical shuffling tw*t's. Don't ever expect to see anything like the above in your life time. period.

    Unreal, mind blowing...

    Yes I blame the stupid fuckers, I lost 3 times betting on the Player 7-9, you literally couldn't make it up, ditto losing Player bets 8-9, the cu*t''s shuffle the cards by the handful, the clumping is digusting, when they change the cards, all the big cards stay together, ditto the small cards, bar the odd splits. Hence the daily 12 and 15 streaks. Randomising the cards is not important, it's all about speed.
     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2019 at 2:57 AM
  20. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    I saw the subject of discussion and thought it another way. Anyways, it is about repeating patterns in Baccarat. I love to play baccarat although roulette is my first love. I must say one thing that most of you may not like. Patterns are illusory only. What you see as a Banker win could come through millions of probabilities and combinations of cards. Same with Player or any outside bet of baccarat. Now, even after knowing this, looking for a pattern to form or repeat is downright silly, in my humble opinion. It is like trying a 5 step martingale again and again finding a bet that can not break. Singles, twos, triplets are the patterns that repeat most for obvious reason. Just check the probability of repeat of a pattern like PPBPBPBB yourself and you will tell to yourself that it is foolish to expect again in the shoe.
     

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