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Baccarat Kotch G3M1 Style

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by soxfan, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    That should explain it.
     
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  2. Baccaritic

    Baccaritic Member

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    It's been some time since I've seen a display of Kotch's work. What I remember is that the "G3" was parlaying your bet 3 times. Bet 1 win, G1 is the first parlay at 2u, G2 is the second parlay at 4u, and G3 was the third parlay at 8u.

    I could have misunderstood it way back when. I recall being turned off by it because 4 wiar can be elusive. It also racks up a lot of commission with winning bets inside of a lost coup.
     
  3. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I played it out against a two bet selections and I didn't like it at all.
     
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  4. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I quick just test the Kotch style against another 52 shoe bets bankers only and it capture another 133 units profits, so total 1003 units for 662 shoe or about 1.5 unit per shoe gross, hey hey.
     
  5. Baccaritic

    Baccaritic Member

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    I don't have Kotch's book, so I can only work from memory.

    My interpretation is that the Martingale portion of the MM was an attempt to roll over a single loss. That it was not intended to be repeated through a long losing streak. Where LL LL LL LL is -1-2 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 instead of -1-2 -1-2 -1-2 -1-2.

    I don't expect that to make the G3M1 any more attractive. I have contemplated why, what I consider to be a four step parlay, was considered a favorite by an individual that did so much exhaustive research.
    Through my own testing, looking for an MM I can wrap around WWW I encounter 4 and 5 wiar often enough that I lament the wasted 1 and 2 wins respectively. My only speculation is that Kotch was trying to capitalize on WWWW, where 5, 6, and 7 wiar are rare and back to back 1-2 parlays have an insufficient return of 6 compared to 15 for a 1-2-4-8. It even outperforms two consecutive 1-2-4 parlays with 6 wiar.

    I could be mistaken about G3 being a 4 step parlay. In which case I've incorrectly speculated about Kotch's intentions with 4 wiar.
     
  6. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Luck of the Irish
     
  7. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    You don't require four straight win. The positive part have you risking one unit with potential to capture seven units profits on three straight win. Otherwise ya capture one units profits with any lw wlw wwlw sequence. I like the style cuz it based on the premise that yer often gonna get a win after loss, hey hey.
     

  8. Baccaritic

    Baccaritic Member

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    I see where wwlw provides a unit of profit, but what is the next bet? Back to 1? looking for 3 more wins, creating a need for 4 wiar to complete G3. Or do you same bet the 2u bet and launch into the parlay at the second bet, keeping the necessary wiar down to 3 at all times?
     
  9. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    But I ain't even Irish, hey hey.
     
  10. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Don't matter you can still have luck of the Irish
     
  11. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    You're right. There's a case where you win the last bet which is a 2 unit bet and then you have to get 3 more bets in a row in order to win 124. If you lost the last bet that ends the series so now you only need 3 in a row.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2019
  12. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I guess I got too much time on my hands! 25 shoe results. These are $1.00 units. Multiply by anything you want. Bet Banker straight down. Sure, the big losers are P Dom shoes but the 10 -15 losers kind of even with B and P. First column Gross, second column Net. Lost 15 of 25 shoes.

    KOETSCH 25 SHOES.png
     
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  13. stephen

    stephen New Member

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    Thanks for posting the results.

    The author who plays G3M1 recommends stopping when you are ahead in the book "Conquer the Casinos" page 71. Some shoes will always be in the red. Some shoes will always be in the black. Some will move from red to black and black to red. The trick is to stop when you are ahead.

    The author does not give any recommendations when to stop. In the above sample what is the maximum and minimum for each shoe. What is the optimum stopping point for this sample of 40 shoes and how many units you would have made if you stopped at the optimum?
     
  14. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    In his book, Koetsch used what he called reversals to hopefully get out of the shoe with a profit.

    He came up with many different MM styles and the G3M1 was his preferred play. He tested each different style for 100 rounds (so that's 100 hands in Baccarat parlance) x 600 games = 60,000 hands.

    His conclusions for G3M1 over 100 rounds x 600 games are as follows:

    * The worst possible loss after 100 rounds is 150 units.

    * The actual peak loss in any of the 100 hands was 82 units.

    * The average peak loss within a 100 rounds was 24.9 units.

    * The average loss at the end of the 100 rounds was 3.96 units.

    * The average peak gain within a 100 rounds was 22.8 units.

    * The actual peak gain within a 100 rounds was 109 units.

    * The best possible gain at the end of 100 rounds would be 375 units.

    * The average % of 100 rounds where the net gain would exceed 10 units = 68%.

    * The average % of 100 rounds where the net gain would exceed 20 units = 47%.

    * The average % of 100 rounds where the net gain would exceed 30 units = 29%.

    * The highest % of 100 rounds possible without a reversal = 100%.

    * The highest actual % of 100 rounds without a reversal = 10%.

    * The average reversals per 100 rounds = 2.95.

    * The average % of 100 rounds with 2 or more reversals = 70%.

    He gives all the above stats for all his different MM styles from flat betting through to linear and geometric progressions. It's worth buying the book for the sake of £/$10.

    The key as far as Koetsch was concerned was to pay particular attention to the reversals and that gave him an indication of when to get out of the game.

    I studied all this a couple of years ago when I was into the AP (arithmetic progressions/ramsay theory) techniques. Various different people had said the variance was not as severe and so I thought Koetsch's ideas might be worth using along with AP.

    Anyway, basically it is like what JK said in a post earlier today...if you have some way of reducing or keeping under control the loss strings, then you will find most things can work and if you can't? Well then, the best of British to you I suppose.
     
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  15. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    What is a reversal?

    In 100 hands, how many times does your bankroll net-status typically REVERSE from losing to winning?

    Koetsch only considers when a net-loss situation reverses to a net-gain.

    So what you see with his results for the G3M1 is that there is an average of 2.95 reversals per 100 rounds/hands and that 70% of the time in those 100 rounds/hands, there is in fact 2 or more reversals.

    So in games of chance and if you consider yourself to be playing with no advantage, you might want to pay attention to these reversals as an opportune moment to get out with a profit.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2019
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  16. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I haven't done all that and don't intend to. But I do agree all that is important. I generally will plot results on a graph to see the high limits and the low limits of a method in order to determine stop loss and stop win as well as MM.
     
  17. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Thanks Eugene for all that. Sounds pretty complicated. I try to keep the game in a much simpler fashion. I'm in agreement with soxfan. It aint rocket science.
     
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  18. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Jimske, I agree with Soxfan and yourself! It doesn't need to be rocket science. Personally, I don't use the reversals but I have used the G3M1 because I thought it was an improvement on the Mongoose. Lately, I am just using the Divisor with a 50 unit stop loss and then reset back to the beginning. That's keeping it as simple as possible without needing to use safety breaks etc..
     
  19. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I remember when mongoose was talked about with that guy from some island I don't know his name. But I don't have been mongoose method.
     
  20. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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