Baccarat My full take on Jae's OG and why it works and why it won't

Respectfully, that has not been my experience. Winning a few K certainly has not brought any heat at the baccarat table. I have seen people escorted off the property for counting cards at blackjack, also lots of heat for dice setters at the craps table, depending upon the casino. But baccarat, no. The casino feels they will eventually get their money back. Now this is in USA so maybe things are different elsewhere.

I sat next to a man the last time I was in a brick and mortar casino who the dealer said once won $340,000 in one night some years ago. He apparently had a nice run and was eventually betting the table max as his chip stack grew. I watched his betting at the table and he was betting small so I guess he did not repeat this feat in the following years. The casino certainly was not worried about him.

 

Yeah not so much "Heat", but they will take notice of you, want you to come back, see if you repeat your good fortune. What I should have said, win a few K on a consistent basis. My consistent may be different from other folks as in 5~6 times per week, if somebody gambles once per month and happens to win, say 2k for a few trips, nothing is going to happen, other than the casino will be desperate to get them back, which I'm sure they were with the punter who won the amount you mentioned.

There is also the "local vs visitor" distinction, I've mentioned this before, so will keep it brief. A visitor can fly in and win 200k for example, casino has to wear it, part of doing business, let's try and get him back via gifts, flights, comps. "A local", as somebody who lives local to the casino, comes in and wins say 2k per day via being smart/system play, whatever, that is treated differently. Even though 200k dwarfs 14k, they are more concerned about the local, because they have the ability to gamble every day and hypothetically (though unlikely) would have a bigger impact on their annual profit than the high roller from out of town who they think just got lucky.

Admittedly the 2k daily is a bit on the low side, small provincial UK casinos would have an even lower tolerance, large casinos down-under had an unwritten 12k limit, so I was told after the fact. Living local, taking 10k from them each time you paid a visit, assuming for example 200 visits in a year, that's 2M, a sizeable dent in their annual profit and losses, they aren't going to let that happen, no matter what game you play.
A friend of mine won $10k at the Crown Casino Melbourne few years back, a massive casino, plenty of high rollers, whales, they hounded him for a long time afterwards to try and get him to come back, accommodation, flights, spending money, it was an absolute joke over what to them must have been a paltry amount.

They might think Baccarat is safe, but if you start pulling in consistent significant wins, you'll be scrutinized to fuck, clip-boards, people standing over you, they will be reaching deep into their psychology book pulling out all the stops, complimenting your play, annoying dealers you name it, you will be stopped period. When I read somebody is 800k up over a period of time, isn't there only 2 casinos in Connecticut and they don't speak to each other, formally or otherwise??? LOL.

 

Cmiiw...he brings 2,000 units to win 200 units/visit?

 

Yep, two casinos in Connecticut. The second and third largest casinos in the US.

One of the reasons I moved here.

Hundreds of baccarat tables. On any given day, hundreds of baccarat players. Hundreds of stadium bac machines. Two stadium baccarat pits, only one supervisor in each pit overlooking hundreds of players playing, blackjack, roulette and baccarat at the stadiums and I believe their main focus is on the dealers.

You do not have to have a player’s card to play. It is very easy to avoid any potential heat. Cash outs under $3,000 are not tracked.

I couldn’t write a book on avoiding detection, but I could write a very detailed chapter on a team’s hypothetical approach. Between 4 team members, each member could keep a tally on their casino recorded payouts. To keep this number down on paper, they know where they stand in the long run of recorded winnings, if they are making a bet of say $400 and they need to bring their recorded numbers down, they insert their players card and make the bet. If they lose the bet, it’s $400 they can write that off of their ongoing tally.

If they win, they still remove their players card and play off the record until a certain point that would call for an $800 bet. Essentially a martingale approach.

Every member of the teams know their paper standings, so they know when their next bet on paper would be.

This is hypothetical of course as this is more than likely illegal for tax purposes.

 

Correct. Probably sounds pretty crazy, but once you make it past ten days, you start to think, it might not be too crazy. Then after a couple months you start to realize it’s not crazy at all, then after a year you start to realize anything else is actually crazy.

 

Exactly how to do it on stadium. I know one guy who plays every day for years and just never puts his card in. Small but consistent winner. The turtle beats the hare.

 

Hold on. Those Stadium Baccarat terminals has a log that goes back to EVERY ACTION of each customer. They can even display a FULL screenshot of EVERY bet made. At the casino I worked a dealer was fired but not charged because over here, we burn ONLY 1 card at start of shoe. As he was loading the cards, he loosened his grip on the cards while putting in the mouse weight to push the cards down. He could see the first hand that is going to come out of the shoe. Someone at the terminal will bet Hundreds and reduced back to minimum after that. Thinking the House don't care about a few Hundred action? Think again. Irregularities will ignite investigations.
Curious question. How do you load that much $100 bills into the machine? it can hold only limits of bills before that tiny steel box in full. What if the action calls for you to bet 50 units which is $5000 ? Lose that and it is not fast enough to reload. If you prepaid for tickets, your information and action needs to be known by the casino.

 

I started this thread and I was undecided to say sensitive stuffs to Jae. I wish he could continue to prosper with his approach. What my common sense tells me is Math don't lie. Imagine when you are down 500 units and betting at least 25 units or more with each hand. THE FASTED WAY TO RECOUP IS A STEEP PROGRESSION. Losing 500 units with a CONSERVATIVE progression like OG is very difficult to happen. To win it back with ONLY INCREASING A UNIT AFTER A WIN? Think for a moment what kind of run of B's is going to let you win it back.
This is one of the reason I say why it don't work. When the bets reached a certain level, the progression is gone. The 1 unit increase have minimum effect . It's like Flat Betting on B with Big Units and winning back a few hundred units. Too tough IMO.

 

In my experience casino mostly thi nk that baccarats can't be beaten with exception of counting the side bet. I took on average jujst about 200K per annum over the course of the 12 years I buck up against the proposition, hey hey.

 

The majority of the money we use is on $500 prepaid tickets.

Anything under $3,000, the casino doesn’t track.

If you cash out over $3,000 they ask for your player’s card or driver’s license if you don’t have a player’s card. The object is to try and keep the cash outs below 3k, but shit happens. Once you’re in a deep grind, you just have to play it out sometimes. Record the amount you put in and subtract that from the total profit keeps a tally on what the casino has you down for.

 

With my trigger, it’s really hard to come out of a series in the red. It does happen, but it’s rare. Even when I recover a grind that goes as deep as -500, I can still come out in the green. Once I go -1,000, it’s most likely going to dip in the red, but not too much. There are shitty scenarios where I might end up paying $10,000 in commission and being in the red $8,000. But I’ll most likely make it up that day and still be in the green, just not at my goal.

I know that you say the math doesn’t lie, and I’m not trying to convince you one way or the other. You can run it on paper and test if for awhile and see for yourself. The commission really isn’t a big deal. If someone decides to not test it on paper and run a simulation such as gizmo, you might find that the commission is ridiculously crazy, but then again that’s if you do what he did and tally commission for every banker bet even those that ran hundreds, if not thousands of hands in each simulation before the trigger was even initiated. Haha.

 

If you make up the commission with more wins like an extra targeted 21 unit win, then there is no debate. But as the Math part dictates after you lost 500 units and bring it back to zero, you might need more than a 21 unit win. That's where the House Edge is. You are talking bottom line and that is where the commision does not matters.

 

Please note that your trigger does not carry any weight. It is just an entry point. The reason is you let your trigger come as it pleases therefore it is 'BOUND" to happen. Having unlimited chances for something to happen has no value.

 

One More thing. You said with your trigger, It's really hard to come out of a series in the red.. and it is rare. I totally believe this BUT when you are down -500 it is even MORE difficult to come back to Black but you made it sound easy. Not rare anymore? A bit of a contradiction here.

 

The $3000 threshold is for MTL. which means Multi Transaction Log to combat Money Laundering. It's not to keep track of your winnings.

 

The majority of the time it is easy. The toughest part is the grind that takes you to the point of your highest drawdown. When I’m there... says it’s -676. That grind might have been two hours. The full recovery at the deepest drawdown can be 10-20 minutes the majority of the time. I obviously don’t know how deep my draw down will be until the series resolves, but the resolution itself is usually quite quick. In those big grinds, I’m usually going through shoe after shoe of heavy player, and then all it takes is a little banker run or two to put me in the clear. Might be 6 banks in a row, a player and 4 more banks. Being negative more than 500 units at any point might not sound conservative, but after trudging through the mud and hitting that heavy banker action, it ultimately was conservative because I survived several shoes only using around 25% of my bankroll.

 

That’s fine and all, but without that, they aren’t really keeping good tabs on my action. And even if they are... which I have my doubts, nothing has happened yet and I’ve won a sizeable amount from one particular casino that one would think would raise flags, but I haven’t noticed. Worst they can do is give us the boot, and then we’ll just go down the road to the third largest casino in the US.

 

It must be different in the US than the UK or Australia. If you pre-buy $500 tickets, (2,000 units?), then the total amount you cash out is taken into consideration, not the profit, so this includes pre-paid tickets. Also from I've seen these tickets have a 24hr time period, you can't save them for when you need to use them. Buying in for 2000 units in other jurisdictions would require ID, again to prevent money laundering.

Talking of which, the anti-money laundering legislation in the UK, has been tightened up, if you buyin for a certain amount, or even if you play regularly, a casino can insist you should them where your money comes from, as in, they can request to see your bank statement which must show a regular income, this not only is to stop a lot of drug dealers rinsing their dough in a casino, but also a lot of growers come from from Asia whom love to gamble.


[QUOTE="Craps, post: 114808, member: 4215"]Please note that your trigger does not carry any weight. It is just an entry point.[/QUOTE]

This is an excellent point and applies to all and any bet selection. That quote should be a sticky, embed it in your memory bank....

 

I tried to say that about Jae's -20 trigger and OG's subjective bet value on the last bet of the "Virtual" bet's amount.

Example this:

If the last bet on virtual needs 3 units to get to -20 then it does not matter that the current bet value might be at 6 units. It might only take 1 unit to get to -20.

But what happens next as it triggers and becomes "Real" bets is the subjective part of the OG. It starts betting real at the adjusted for arithmetic value. That value is just a coincidental number. You could just look for a strong sided "Player" streak, wait for it to settle back to normal and then pick a random number between 1 unit to 8 units for the "Real" bet value to start. There would be no waiting for -20. You would just trigger on "return to the mean."

Now, to some people this will make sense. I'm not suggesting that it is a good idea. I'm just saying that there is no magical trick to waiting for -20. I mean that the "Player" side of things could be headed for -40. Nobody knows what the cards will do in the future. This is clearly demonstrated by my research results where once out of every 150 series it goes bust at -$200,000. That's not a perfectly accurate number for an average. It could be less or more. The point is that the -20 point does bust once in a while. I'm sure that these numbers fall in line with the many studies having been done and published on the internet over the past few decades for Oscar's Grind.

 

It's getting really deep! Some of us know better, Hugh!