Baccarat Oscar's grind + baccarat

I thought the main basis of the wait was to give a target buffer for commission. From there, it's a race to finish the series more times before commission eats away the profits. it's a huge difference when your target is 1 vs 20 or >
cheers
hammy

 

years ago there was a study done by someone who pointed out that, cards that are set in packets for the casino to use are clumped from the start.
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,j,q,k,...1,2,3,.......
the finding was that it would take much more time that a dealer has to "produce" a "true random shuffle" by hand, and that is why within the first few shoes or couple of hours, you could see low cards following low cards, high cards following high cards....
then it was said that a personality was created. the automated shufflers later were introduced and once you get "normal" randomised cards, you could see a better mix between high and low cards.
also the fact that slowly at times ,because when the first cards coming out are low, and the players would have more often then not hit their cards, or then stand on high cards, clumps would be created again.
of course this is a even stronger phenomenon in blackjack then baccarat, but it is a reason I believe why "biases" are created.
you will see a dealer always picking up cards from a busted hand or a pat hand always very,very carefully as to not change a flow created by the players. without a normal mix of cards ,high and low,ect....you will find very strange traits of shoes that happens.
we were told years ago never to play off new cards and take notes of time and hours when certain shoes became player bias.
shufflers also can be calibrated to speed I beleive.
just thought it is interesting to know that as to give a explanation as to why "shoes" get a certain way.
Cheers

 

Not anymore. Cards are now shuffled at the factory before they're even delivered and then they put in the shufflemaster when they get to the casino for play and after that they are shuffled by hand.

 

when they bring new decks from the factory they are exactly in the order I described and that is what you see. why would they shuffle cards in the factory and then place them back in order ???
I spent too much time around blackjack tables to know that much. I actually heard recording from dealers themselves speak about non-random shuffles and how cards dont get moved that much after shuffles.
they describe how much they recall what shoe and what personality a shoe takes over and over.

 

I don't know where you play. But most places nowadays bringing pre shuffled cards right from the factory. And there are personnel at the factory overseeing the operation.

I'm well aware of what they used to do. As a longtime card counter and blackjack player we used to always play the clump off of new cards just as you described it.

 

If Lemonade ran a test starting at -500, would the results be any better? Moving the goal post to -500 doesn’t change the math. Shoes and dice don’t have a memory.

 

Lemonade could run a test on every single method or system that has ever existed on baccarat and craps, including your flat betting and none of them will ever show a long-term positive result.

Will the results be different with -500, yes; but he would also most likely say that it doesn’t matter if you wait for -500 or just bet every hand until you make 500.

If I bet every hand trying to make 500 units, it would take me at least 60 shoes of play….

 

fair enough, maybe things are different these days, learn something new every day. just for knowledge sake i will ask a pit-boss next time i go play. I like you dont play blackjack anymore, not much at least, but so you must know how shuffling does not always move the cards that much.
I remember those days where you would sure pray that the new shoe,new shuffle, would make the cards flow much better, but nope, same crap.
i remember playing 2 full shifts (16 hours) at a blackjack table at the mirage . i was very stuburnly stupid in those days (if that is even a word), waiting for a hot run to start right after a new shuffle. I was down a lot of money for the longest time, shoe after shoe nothing changed, until finaly one hour before they were gonna close the table, the cards finaly turn in my favor, and within one or two shoes I got all my money back.
after that I went and slept for 12 hours,lol. cards can stay bad a lot longer then they can stay good.....

 

Jae, if you desire and if you don't already know it, I'll post Wilson's tests and considerations on OG.

as.

 

I have Wilson’s book.

This is what he wrote about OG after testing in on Craps, where the probability of a PL or DP win, is 49.3%. Exactly the same as Player.

“In either case, it is quite evident that a catastrophic loss is by no means an outlandishly impossible event.”

“The 66 fiascos yielded a deficit of $864,000; on the other hand, the 279,934 successful sequences pouched a gain of exactly as many dollars.”

“The net loss, therefore was $584,000.”

As in 584,000 units

He likely started with the same $1 dollar bet that Oscar did.

Then he tested OG on a Fair Game, where the probabilities to win or lose were both 50%. It still lost.

“The net loss of $21,000 was virtually negligible when compared to the $48,300,000 wagered.”

It lost 21,000 units in a 50/50 game.

His conclusion:

"It is essential to grasp the fact that although the probability of a single disastrous event may appear remotely small, the cumulative effect with many sequences leads to nearly certain disaster.”

 

the study of blackjack Shuffles is interesting but not really in this thread. I'll just say this. The casinos have long since learned to use Shuffle master along with plugging the shoe along with using small picks to prevent Shuffle tracking and randomize the cards. Along with that they cut a lot of cards out of the shoe game to make it very difficult to win.

 

sorry I am getting off track and this is Jae's OG thread.
Jae never said his system cant lose. just that he could win a lot of units before it does.
lets said you knew that getting 20 players in a row was what you would built your system around.
you know it is a very rare event and that by the time it happens you could be having a nice stash of units.
so you would decide to enter the game only every time you see 12 players in a row and Marty a 8 step progression on banker.
it would take another 8 players to kill your bankroll for you to get that 20 players in a row.
that is what OG is doing perhaps, just a thought.

 

Thanks CM!

Anyway, that's what happened at a perfect random game (craps) where each bet was supposed to get a steady 49.3/50.7 W/L probability forever and ever.
Unbeatable.

Probably Jae has found some ploys to possibly decrease the probability of the eventual "fiasco", after all is what many of us are trying to do in the absence of a verified math edge.

as.

 

Re card supplies, not all casinos are the same, so no one is incorrect. Here some cards are factory pre shuffled , boxed and delivered. Dealer cracks the box , cuts , then puts in coup, deal the hand player opens ,results are recorded cards are binned, NOT used again!!
Other parts of casino cards are reshuffled after each shoe, players are NOT allowed to touch them. This topic has been covered elsewhere. Ground hog day. Cheers

 

The cards are manufactured in China, there was one case in US, where the cards weren't shuffled and in deck order, didn't take long for players to notice, after which they emptied the tray, the casino tried to sue the supplier.

All venues are different, in smaller UK casinos they lay out the cards for completeness, then shimmied and shuffled three times and re-used for maybe 10 hours, Down-under some places use shuffler-master rigs, I've seen Sky Shitty in NZ simply take a colour coded box of factory shuffled cards, which as Punkcity says, are cut and deal (no table shuffle), the auto-shufflers despite costing 20k each are not used.

I've played this game long enough to appreciate the shuffle type does impact the characteristics of shoes. A favourable scenario is either a tried bored dealer, or trainee (lots of banter, happening at end of shoe, to distract her, "come on hurry up love") and new cards just been sent to the said table. Good few years back, a casino down-under had a policy of "keep the games going", reduce down-time. End of shoe cards were riffled three times only (no shimmy) and placed back in the shoe.

Not sure why, but this tends to result in clumping and NYC sky scrapper streaks and subsequently my most successful period playing this game, which came to a grinding halt once they installed Shuffle-Master machines at all tables.


In the UK I've witnessed quiet a few dealers at the end of a shoe, count the cards to make sure nobody pinched one LOL. Slowly shimmy the cards across the table, stop what they are doing while supervisor tallies the float, people wander from the table for toilet break, stretch their legs, meanwhile the dealer is telling the supervisor what everybody is in for, who's up and who's down haha). Then 4 or 5 even 6 riffle's (paranoid casino) bored out their brains, they take their time hoping punters will leave the table and move elsewhere.

Could be 30 mins downtime vs 5 mins which used to happen in Adelaide. If nobody is betting, the casino isn't making any money, yet still paying wages, mention this to the manager, they say something dumb like; "we have to protect the game", "it's come down from head office". A lot of dealers rather sit there yakking to their mates, ready to go for an hour, than deal the game. When they do start dealing, it's like Jekyll and Hyde, kinda sums it up.

Soz, went a bit off topic

 

Jae the partners play baccarat i mentioned a few posts back can be located at about page 14-18 on the baccarat forum the poster was Viamante? Something like that anyway. Cheers

 

Junket yes that happened here, I’m also amazed at how dealer here gets all uperty in regards to free hands. They honestly think they are getting ripped off , it’s not their money, they are just flesh dealer the only reason they don’t use actual monkeys to deal is just a hygienist point of view ( debate all day that one) note I didn’t mention the intelligence lol. Also we don’t have monkeys in the wild here in skippy island
The argument they give is why give for free , yet the dealer is very very happy to sit at a table not deal a single hand for the shift. They fail to realise superstition among some people means they don’t play a unattended shoe. No player no money. Sometimes I sit at a table to talk (NOT play) to some dealer I know and with in a few minutes other people come to play. Funny that.
Restaurants open in areas of other restaurants for a reason. Cheers

 

All casinos have different rules and those rules can change depending what manager is on duty. Star on the Gold Coast, in the VIP room they will deal to an empty table if requested (and with a smile). Some Chinese guy used to ask them to do this, as he liked to place a bet on Banker at the half way point of a shoe (LOL).

Also in the same joint, you can request a hand shuffle after cards have been removed from the Shuffle-Master, one day some snarly manager who had just been hit hard by a group of Korea's on Roulette, a number was max'd out which came in, might have been a grand on it, and all numbers around it. He said no when I requested the hand shuffle. Anyway I cleaned up on the shoe, it was a dream shoe, so when it ended I looked for him, went up and thanked him for denying my request. Two can play these mind-games

 

Hi @Jae, any update of your recent business model?

 

Hi JAE, yes I'm well aware of OG and the reverse OG. After reading some debate here on these pages about the Banker or Player only side I did a test with 1 shoe , I bet banker using OG method and same time bet player using the reverse OG, while this may seem a bit odd it had a positive outcome of 36 units. Played both sides per hand to clarify.