Baccarat Playing (and Winning) Baccarat Over The Long Term

There are two aspects to consider here, first the bet selection, 8 hands repeating, it would be very rare to see this, maybe once every few hundred shoes, so in regards to bet selection, the answer is YES. However Baccarat is not just about bet selection, the second and most important aspect is money, your staking plan. Obviously a neg progression is needed, but what covers an 8 step progression? It is nigh impossible nor a sensible way to play, unless you're young, reckless and foolhardy

So yes, in terms of BS, but due to the staking plan requirements, No.

Using patterns of 4 is not robust enough.

I've seen longer single run one side only, which continued into the next shoe, it was on the Banker side, cleaning out all the Chinese players in the process.

I'm not here to tell anybody what they should do with their money, but I've explored all type of progressions for many years and positive progressions offer no advantage, sure I've had times winning 6~8 or more bets in a row and you think damn. If I'm up, win 4 iar, and might chip up for the 5th bet, then curse if I lose, because doing that has just taken consumed a prior win, and I hate that aspect of it. I'm happy with grinding out my base unit, one chip at a time, I don't need to be parleying in the long term.

 

the more I am looking at GB2 the more it really shows that not all bets are the same how how they fall.
I dont know if anyone sees the value that betting twos not making threes are a much better bet then ones not making twos.
look at the differences . how many 5's are dominant in GB2 ,rarely going higher then 8's while GB1 are in the 9,12,14 range.
I tested also thousands of spins in roulette and got the same results !
it is way to obvious to think that another 500 shoe would show different results in general. that shows that even know the odds may not change ,the distribution of how groups fall into sessions after sessions, they give us a clear advantage if we take notice.
Cheers

 

I like to point out that threes not going to fours also make those prime bets.
the reason this happens is because of "space" in between groups.
the space or hands, or spins, between 1' going to 2's are much shorter then those of the 2's not going to 3's, and same of 4's not going 5's, ect....
that is the only sens I can make as to why the distribution is such.

 

My findings with observation of high roller actions. Never be a one style player and wait for things to come. Physiologically, losing while betting flip flopping is very demoralizing.That is the reason a high percentage of patrons bet following the shoe. They may lose a lot of hands in a row by following the shoe and they wouldn't stand losing one hand by flip flopping. I kind of like doing things both ways which is sometimes you bet follow and sometimes you bet against.
One more thing which is very helpful IMO. If you can get the casino to change shoe as you pleases, it helps to slow down the losses tremendously.

 

dont you think flip flopping is demoralizing at times only because if you follow your judgement and you lose its on you ? and so the element of guilt can be haunting ?
but if lets said you have a plan of exactly what your plays are or your methods, it can kind of take the edge off, as you are just following "orders" type thing. no pressure is what keeps the monkey away.
something else I have noticed is the "amount" of your base bets can really have a effect of "how you do" as a player.
I can be a lot more patient and not so reckless if my base unit is higher, and that is overlooked too much I think.
so everyone should be asking ; what unit should I be using that really helps me perform best ?

 

how do you go from validating his system to talking trash to him?

 

Good post there, Rinad; very insightful.

In my opinion, the serious and savvy Bac player is best served by utilizing a "set" method. A method of play that they have an absolute and unwavering confidence in. Confidence that is borne out of repetition and, frankly, long-term success.

It is that very confidence that affords the player the very necessary Patience and Discipline to stay the course, even in the face of adversity. No one wins every bet, regardless their personal approach. The very best one can aspire to, again in my humble opinion, is to maintain a winning strike rate; somewhere in the neighborhood of 52 to 54 percent.

But that said, it bears mention right here and now that even that positive long-term strike rate often times doesn't amount to a hill of beans in some of our short-term sessions. Spit happens. At this game, as in life. Spit happens. So you'd best have an answer for the times when the majority of your chips find themselves winding up in the dealer's tray.

Now, some people's answer to that is to buy-in with hundreds...dare I say, even thousands...of units at each and every session. I simply cannot endorse that sort of approach. My main reason for the hesitance? Frankly, I don't trust myself nor my response in the face of watching my bets growing and growing exponentially higher and higher...all during a single session where my bet selection process is so obviously lacking. As one's bets go higher and higher into a long losing jag, it can...and very possibly will...obscure my judgements in the heat of the moment.

Why put myself through that? Towards what end? I've found, over all these years, that "bail-out betting" (read: over-betting in the name of instant recoup) is never a positive attribute. Even if it were to work well this time, it sets a bad precedence for future negative swings. Thinking you're just a few big bets away from "bailing out" any highly negative session can...and eventually will, trust me on this...lead that player into deeper and deeper holes. Holes from which they eventually cannot escape.

Know this: No Bac player that I know of can "out-muscle" the vast casino's bankroll with their own. It is nothing more than an exercise in futility. Maybe not today, maybe not even tomorrow...but it forever lurks in the shadows for the players that adopt these "all-in" methodologies.

Much better, IMHO, to learn to lose. We all know what we need to do to win. Alas, that will not be what defines us; certainly not over the long term. It is even more imperative to learn how to "walk a loss". Nothing wrong with us in expecting the best, but there's a heck of alot wrong in not being prepared for the worst.

In trying to keep your inevitable losses manageable, your eventual recoup becomes that much more attainable. Adopt a long-term view of the game. Stick to your preferred, trusted plays. Have the confidence in knowing that while your plays might not have worked as well today as they did yesterday, they may very well work better than usual tomorrow. Assuming, of course, that you still have the bulk of your bankroll left to even play tomorrow. That, my friends, is on you.

Take care and stay well, all.

 

Your posts are usually well-riddled and filled with passive-aggressive and contradictory tones; but this is pretty legit. I too believe in having a set method that I can be confident in, repetition and long-term success. Having a large bankroll that overcomes 99% of all obstacles gives me not only the confidence I need, but seeing it win time after time allows me to be patient as I know I’ll be going home a winner day after day. Oof, too bad you didn’t share your method of obtaining a 52-54% strike rate, I’m over here just getting the slightly less than 51% rate on banker. You obviously have more wisdom and knowledge than most on baccarat. You should write a book about it!

Of course you’re not going to endorse a player going in with thousands of units. You want them to play as you do, with scraps and hope they get lucky and get out while they are lucky and accept that some days they won’t be lucky. Blah blah. Your strategy is taking a few guys into battle against an army of thousands and hoping to kill a few and retreat. That can work sometimes, but ultimately you’re going to die in the process. Bring in thousands of soldiers and along with it a rock solid strategy and you can win 99% of the battles.

People too often mention that you can’t go up against the casino, they have an unlimited bankroll, etc.

You’re not going up against all the casinos money, your battle isn’t against their bankroll, it’s against the game of baccarat. You need a good size bankroll to be a long-term winner. If someone without a large bankroll is a long-term winner... well it confuses me because even if it didn’t start out big, shouldn’t it be big after the long-term. I dunno.

I think the title of your book should be “Learn to Lose.”

Sounds like your strongest attribute, as you seem to be very good at losing and also very good at encouraging others to do so as well.

Maybe you could partner up with alrelax. You both are good at writing a bunch of opinions without any real substance.

 

I endorse that there is more then one way to do well and we dont have to said "my way is the only way", or it is much better then your Method. I will said this again, if I cant make a system work for myself when someone else is doing great with it, why should I said "your system suck" instead of "I cant make it work but maybe somebody else can"?
I know our ego dont like admitting someone else can do something I cant do.
if we believe that we get set in our own ways and cant help eachother. a forum could be so powerfull if we were to become real disciples (learners) of the game.
feel like the general telling his soldats, hey Guys the enemy is out there, the casinos ! not here !
some of us are better are doing certain things and vice-versa, all members of the "gambling family".
there are always something of value in people's arguments if we are open minded and dont get offended too easy.
our craft is our own and should be proud of our accomplishment . no need for validation that we are right, we will never find that treasure on this planet, a sure bet, if there was ever one.
life is very short, and there's no time,im,im,im.im, for fussing and fighting my friend. (John Lennon)

Cheers,

 

Jae, I have no desire for any sort of confrontation with you. After all, how could my preferred Baccarat methodology ever compare with any "bet Banker only" bet selection process combined with a deep "Oscar's Grind" money management? On the contrary, you should be very proud to be the very first baccarat player to think of betting strictly on the banker's side simply because it hits, long-term, just a tad over the player's side, commission be damned; as well the very first baccarat player to think of using the "Oscar's Grind" (or any long, drawn-out progression) as a way of gaining any advantage over the casino. How could my approach to this game possibly compete with your brilliant new discovery? Good for you, Jae!

The main reason for my 53-ish strike rate is my relatively selective betting process. I'm a confirmed trender that utilizes a few preferred trends and I'll place a bet only in the shoes (or portions therein) when it "appears" as if one or more of them are predominate. (Notice the "appears" in parenthesis...it's not an exact science, it's just my interpretation of the shoe's results as they unfold.) That said, please know that, often times, I do more "no-betting" than I do actual betting. I prefer to allow the game to come to me as opposed to me, fruitlessly, chasing the game.

Regarding my bankroll, please rest assured that it is ample enough for my style of play. It's a mistake to assume the heft of my long-term bankroll based simply upon my single-session buy-in amount. At each session, I risk but a small percentage of my over-all bankroll.

Lastly, Jae, as to your suggestion that I title my book "Learn to Lose" because that appears as my "strongest attribute"; if I were to write a book there most certainly would be a chapter devoted to the acceptance of short-term losing sessions, but the title of my book would be the very same as the title of my thread: "Playing (And Winning) Baccarat Over The Long Term".

I play my way...you play yours...I wish you well in your endeavors and should hope that the feeling is mutual. In the end, it should be us against the casino, not each other.

Take care and stay well.

 

You have no desire for a confrontation with me...

Read your initial post on this thread again.

Why do passive-aggressive people always think they are taking the high road?

Like another poster mentioned, you’ve been trying to obtain a following since the GG days, which is fine... to each their own. But your attempt at cultivating a following of people to teach them how to lose is mind-boggling.

I’ve never claimed to be the first at doing what I do. I’m sure there are plenty of people who have successfully applied OG, and there are also plenty of people that have probably tried and failed due to insufficient bankroll and discipline.

I can go to any casino in the world and observe thousand of baccarat players and I may find a few utilizing OG. On any given day, basically everyday I’m surrounded by trenders. They keep the casino doors open. Thank you for your service.

Many of these “trenders” could write your book, the one thing you’ve got over most is that at least you’ve come to terms with losing. Most gamblers haven’t quite accepted defeat, they just constantly try and convince everyone that they are long-term winners and not losers. You’ve cornered the market by admitting both.

My apologies for being so direct, let me try it in your passive-aggressive tone:

I’ve been seeing something on this board and in the casinos for years. Players will see certain trends such as PPBPPB

Obviously the next two hands are going to be PP, but it’s not a sure thing, but most likely that’s what will happen because if you look at the board it basically shows you the road map to success. If it isn’t PP, I suggest walking around and waiting or finding a new table. If a string of 6 bankers comes out instead of PP, well, it’s just not your day. Accept the loss and get em next time. I mean, they say that banker has a slight edge, but it’s not significant. You need to bet both, bet ties when you see ties. Bet P’s when you see P’s, or when it’s chopping, chop. Terrible twos will kill ya, just walk away. But when you get them for a couple units, run!

Hey everyone, I just rented a car and won $600 and had a nice sandwich courtesy of the casino, suck my balls and I’ll give you all of my guru knowledge. Only bring 5-6 units. Try and win 3 and call it a day. If you lose 4, walk away.

I don’t want to knock your generic style. That was never my intention. Your name or lame bullshit was never on my radar. YOU are the one that came here making passive-aggressive statements directed towards me and my method. But you’re gonna really try and take the high road when I speak up and blast your generic unproven crap???

I don’t have any hatred for you, just the slightest animosity. I have no ill will towards you. I understand that you used to be a really bad gambler and have honed your skills over the years, and to me, that’s awesome. I think your style is very luck based, and if you are a long-term winner, it’s because of luck, but also to your credit due to good discipline, and I too wish you nothing but success in your mediocre game play. As players, we are not on the same page. My method is something you can only knock in text off of your opinions, it’s easily teachable and easily tested to prove its authenticity. My bankroll and earnings can’t be scoffed at in the real world. My team made $23,780 yesterday. I personally made nearly $6,000. I don’t give a flying fuck about followers or converting people. I don’t have to come here and write a click bait post titled “finally...” and brag about my venture. Because it’s a part of REAL long-term success, not small gambling trips that I didn’t have to accept a loss on.

 

Bwwwwwwaaaaah the gr8888one got a new nemesis and now feudin with the Jae cat, hey hey.

 

I read Rinad, Jae, Gr8. Yup I did. I have some comments.

"Learn to Lose" not such a derogatory thing. Walking away when you're tired or confused or bored just losing not feeling focused is a good thing rather than fight back. Of course if you're playing a total mechanical method which doesn't require any guessing there is no losing in theory so you just keep going. That's a no-brainer. But that's not what most people do here.

Kudos for JAE making a ton of money playing a totally mechanical method. Would I like to do what he does? Yeah sure why not? The reason why not is because I'm not interested in putting in more than 10 or 15 hours a week. Should I or anyone feel disparaged because they don't have to spend hours upon hours in a casino for a livelihood? Frankly I feel lucky that I don't.

Because I've never found a way to play a purely mechanical method to win at Baccarat I've always considered it to be primarily a betting and guessing game. During the times that I've played over the years I have kept track from time to time of my win-loss registry and posted the results on this forum. In truth there has been a lot of times where I don't bother keeping a real good track of my win-loss registry because I'm more concerned about profit. I don't need to win more than half of my hands to achieve a profit. So from time to time I do keep track. For instance my last 620 live wagers have achieved a 52.9% win rate. The reason I do keep track from time to time it's because I'm trying to hit the 55% win rate. So far no good. But achieving 53% is certainly doable just buy guessing. Sometimes things just click and they seem to be writing on the wall. Here's one that I think JK will like. 3 players never gone four. My bet happens to be Banker. I bet. It's a tie. Spit how many times have I seen this movie before? I bet Banker again it's a tie. That's it this is when I'm going to get al ong player Maybe. I bet player it goes 10 in a row. It's an old movie. Maybe next time I bet Banker I win I don't know.

In fact I know several people who play for years and win regular just chipping away day after day guessing and winning units. I know one individual who plays a full-time guessing and betting game and does quite well to support himself. I'm not saying it's easy because it's not. In fact it's a lot harder then playing a mechanical method and a lot more stressful. But to insist that it can't be done or people don't do it is foolishness. The guessing and betting game is one of the reasons why it's difficult to make a ton of money. You're lucky to get three four units of shoe average overtime if that.

GR8 has been around for a long time. I really don't know him personally and it's my understanding that he has admitted that he's taken quite a hit in the past. I hope he has turned it around like he says and I don't see any reason why it's not true. Frankly, JAE I didn't read his posts as being passive aggressive or confrontational. His nice-guy Kumbaya shtick it's just the way he is. He's always been that way. Yes it can be a little annoying.

Rinad, you have the right attitude in my opinion. Take what you need try to learn and figure out what's best for you personally and move on. I participate here because I learn stuff from time to time. Plus the dialogue keeps me focused on my game . And hopefully some of my posts are helpful to other people.

The big rub is the question about whether or not it can be taught? I have a friend who I tried to teach and compare notes with and play with at different venues around the country. He loses. I haven't figure it out what exactly it is. I think part of it is you get to feel when things are going your way or when they're not. And when they're not I try to maybe do something different or change your perspective for a very short time and if it doesn't work you're gone. And when it does work you give it a chance to improve profit by adjusting your wagers upward a little bit. It's a Grind no doubt about it. I'd much rather play a mechanical method if one suited me. Maybe I will.

In fact because of JAE I have been experimenting with a method betting every hand using Oscar grind. So far I'm doing 7 units a shoe but for only 100 shoes. In the meantime I look for shoes that might give me a lot of trouble. They're pretty hard to find consecutive shoes that will lose 2000 units without recouping. And of course it plays both sides so the commission is less. If I get around to doing a few hundred more I will post about it. No rush.

That's all I got to say. Thanks for listening.

 

Nice post Jimske, I feel you and I have a lot in common in how we view the game. more then one way to win just like more then one way to lose.
I have no doubt if you can win more then half of your hand ratio you can win with OG. as a matter of fact you can win with pretty much any method.
I too fool around with flat betting because it is the creme de la creme of the gambling world, if you can learn how to speak trends, ect....it will not be a waste of time. I get this one thing I like to share about reading hands, spins, ect....
if i look at what is happening in terms of B,P...how they run, I laid back a little ,try not to look more then I should into it, more like a bird eye view, what it is telling me instead of me telling it what it looks like, and I usually do very well flat betting.
the other thing I have to see is that at times there is nothing its telling me and so I dont have to do a dam thing. (harder to do then just saying it ) I know.
I dont want to spend my life in a casino as well but I dont golf, no bowling, no bars, so games of chance is my hobby, my passion to be truthfull.
I wish people would feel more free to express their ideas without fear of getting bullied, seems like all forums have this virus, too bad.
but I take everything I can learn from anyone and chew it good before I digest it.
there is more into Jae's system then just becoming a robot and just repeating over and over the same thing.
the statement I just made seems very plain but yet , I found out this one truth, which I have a weakness.
have you ever try to sit there doing one thing over and over and over without making mistakes by letting your mind wander in all places or begin to look at too many opportunities on the board asking you or seducing you into making other plays that would brake your concentration ?
I have, more then once. that is why meditation and prayers are part of my life, I need the stillness of a crocodile, being able to just stand still, and not lose focus.
not as easy as it looks friends. Oscar's last name is Grind,lol. tell it all.
that is a weakness I work on always, to stay focus on my target, and I bet a lot of players could not pull through, so boring, yet so challenging.
anyhow my two cents,
God bless,

 

I was going to say... but Jae beat me to it. I hear this baloney so often, it's basically stoopid, as well as viewing your audience as dumb .

Oh please, he was approached to write a book about circa 150 years ago, he mentioned it on the Glen, please let's not travel down this dead end street once again.

So you recouped the six figures you dropped?

I concur, all intently staring at the score board seeking divine intervention.

Kinda adds credence when you express yourself like that, winning consistently decent sums of money, stress, adrenalin, no time for fools, kill all prisoners and cut everybody off at the knees and go straight for the jugular. Don't know why you don't hook up with Walter seeing you frequent the same casino Mo Sun, then again, I wouldn't hold my breath like.

Oh STFU Ferguson, getting your jollies from others bickering, if they aren't then you try instigate things, juvenile dim wit. With your IQ you wouldn't have been out of place in the flick Deliverance holding a Banjo in one hand and Guinness in the other.

I've done the same, with people I've shown, they try and replicate me, which is never going to work, as opposed to understanding what is being shown and leaning to make their own judgements, people who an't think, adapt, simply seek a mechanical way of playing.

 

Oh common Keating why would any sane cat wanna replicate or emulate the style of a chickens shit, scared loser recreational player like you? That ain't make no sense, hey hey.

 

Stop yappity de yapping, go and give your head a wobble and I played professionally for many years. Think about the Cashews on the shelf which you can no longer afford, may your days be filled with people like you.

 

Nope yer just another chickens shit, scared loser recreational player wanna be the bigs shot on forum, hey hey.

 

I scratch my head seeing you guys posting winning more than 50%. Some even go as far as 55%.
You guys need to ELABORATE what over 50% is.
Is it frequency of wins more than 50%?
Is it in $$$ amount that you won more than $50 for every losing $50?
How can anyone say winning more hands than losing more hands with a method. If that is the case, the Holy Grail is found!!!. Just flat bet the damn thing with Tens of Thousands of dollars.
If I can win over 50%, I wouldn't be using a progression like Martingale.
Now, if you use some sort of MM and achieve a win rate in $$$ form that passes the break even point of 50/50 and come up $52 win for every $50 loss. That will be possible. I don't think everybody in this forum get this straighten out completely.

 

I can only speak for myself. I invariably keep a W/L registry on every shoe. That's how I keep track of my progression bettng if I get distracted.

I always keep my score cards and I bring them home for two reasons. To write down my win-loss registry and to put the shoe into my database.

I'm mostly interested in my win-loss registry if I am changing my bed selection somehow. Also if I know that I'm going to post my win-loss registry for some reason like I have in the past hi keep track. And I'm thinking that maybe because I know I'm going to post my results to the Forum it may give me better focus and maybe that allows me to actually win more than lose sometimes.

So for example in the last 600 some Wagers I've been tweaking my selection and therefore I'm keeping track and that's why I know I have one 52.9% of the last I think 620 wagers or something like that.

But like I said before sometimes I don't bother so much with the wind lost because I'm more concerned with the profit. But I have kept track for something like 3,000 wagers and I think that's a pretty good representation of my style.

If you play you can do the same thing. Then you'll know how many you win or lose.