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Baccarat Progressions

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Ok got it, I thought you were in the US. I was going to suggest, if you were in the USA and wanted to play a $10 Fibonacci on a $20 minimum table, then you simply start the progression at 2 units ($20), next bet is 3 units ($30) rather than 2 units at $20 which would be $40.

    The benefit of doing this, if you had say a $1500 BR, that would be 8 steps at $10, or 7 steps at $20.

    However, see comment below
    Personally, having been there, I would say no, it's not worth it. You can win for quiet some time until the crash, which will consume all prior profit and leave you under a lot of pressure when you next play.

    The Star System (Ryder) is very good, you can play around with it, I posted a thread years ago on the GG site. I'll repost it here. I wouldn't play it as read, rather take some principles from it, should as the flat bet stage. I still use it today, it I'm playing solo and have to bet every hand. My pre-stage is 7 chips, not 5 as you find in the Ryder.


    True and that half price game sucks, it only exists so casinos can make more money. They have removed it completely from the UK cos' everybody hated it. I've heard of worst in some other places, Bank wins on a 6 and it's a push, WTF!!!!

    I would recommend you use a 7 chip pre-stage, I refer to them as the foot soldiers, doesn't matter if they live or die, any time your pre-stack is greater than 7, place those chips with the rest of your buyin' never to be returned. Keep flat betting until all of your pre-stack of 7 chips is lost (parlay if you wish, it is optional).

    Once your 7 pre-stack is lost, then you need to recover 10 chips (you're not risking your cash just to recoup). You have TWO options;

    1) Run a Fibonacci to win 10 units
    2) Run two Labby strings consisting of, 1-1-1-1-1 1-1-1-1-1

    The Labby won't escalate as fast as the Fibo, but will require more wins.

    Alternative, increase your unit value, to decrease the required wins. So you busted 1400 peso ($140), step up to 2000 peso units, now instead of needing to win 10, you only need to win 7 units, something along those lines.

    Everything depends on how much BR you have, temperament.....
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
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  2. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    THANK YOU for the ideas i will play with them

    1st shoe 19w/26l plus 10 hand 59 -highest point +16 (hand 53) -lowest -25 hand 29 -biggest bet 21 (won) hand 30

    i ran the first shoe and made a quick ghetto spreadsheet comparing the two and a modified rider taking 5 virtual losses before starting the bet and limit to 16 units bank (bigest bet will be 5 and then 10 on a win ride or bust the 16), minimum here to take unlimited free hands is 5000 pesos about $100 USD, so the rider as written can drop 63 units fast..
    again i have played it as written and modifications at $200 base units, but hit and run.....
    when i did play rider at $200 minimum i would take many free hands and sometime bet once or not at all in a shoe, there is no one else playing in the high limit here so dealers/bosses were frustrated...its ok though i quit playing there after i was asked to play more hands... even though clear rules are written JUNKET Unlimited free hands on each table........ it was frustrating because when i dropped about $5k USD playing that way they didnt bother me, but when i came back and was up about $8k USD on them they (security/hosts) bothered me.... u could understand my frustration...sorry off topic...

    anyway theres another casino here junket that has $60 minimum unlimted free hands that i will probably go test the modified rider with my bet selection, it seems to be holding up...lol..until it doesnt u know the story.... and if it doesnt i will be down only 16 units of $60 about $960

    in testing it has won between 0-10 units a shoe with no bust in limited history, and when the shoe is so good for my bet selection i will have no bets.. i will probably look to quit the shoe at around hand 50.....

    although i havent tried this bet betselection at that casino yet, and i beleive each casino has their own patterns pre shuffled into their "random" cards.. but thats another topic... so what wins at one casino will get killed at another... only random each time can attack at each casino and have a chance.... i think...

    anyway thanks for responding

    i will probably test the final 3 shoes from yesterday later and post same spreadsheet, i was going to run the divisor spreadsheet too but got to lazy, and the G3m1 SHOE1 1 aug 2019.jpg
     
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  3. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    sorry couldnt edit ///

    look at hands 13,14,15 and 28,29,30 i know with JKs regression at earlier levels this big bets and low balance can be adjusted (possibly) than just recovery town with labbys... havent put any effort into testing this yet //
     
  4. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes casino's won't adhere to their own rules. I was in the VIP of Jupiters in Oz few years back, customers can request 1 additional hand shuffle, normally they are very friendly, but this pit-boss was pissed off, because some junket tourist high roller had the table max of $1k on a roulette number which had just hit and the dealer was red as beetroot, winning $36k. So he took it out on me and said no hand shuffle.

    Anyway it was a very good shoe for me, might have been very choppy I don't recall. So I won good money, when the shoe ended, I went to another table and made the point of thanking him for denying me the shuffle, he didn't appreciate that, but who cares. They are all slimly two-faced bottom pond feeders, don't take any shit from any of then, also don't let them rile you, they will save that info for later. I've also been harassed by security, being followed and spoken about within ear-shot. There is no length they will not go to, to wind you up.

    That is a very good sign of true discipline. But what happened here?

    Capture Fibo.JPG

    At the highlighted staged, you have cleared the progression and made profit, yet your next next was 3 units?? You have to realise, you don't know when any losing run will come around. Starting at 3u, you now only have 6 steps left. you should always strive to get back to making 1u bets so you maintain maximum depth of the progression. That 21u bet which was won was avoidable, it could have gone either way and should have only been 8u. The prior W5 L3 W5 produces the profit.


    I've heard those superstitious beliefs before, there is no evidence to support it. It is my belief that while cards would not be ordered in a certain manner to produce a particular shoe bias, the card composition can be changed of the shoe to produced to certain bias. I understand what you are saying. I believe such a thing happened to me back in 2004, too many events that occurred support my belief, you need an understanding of unwritten casino protocol as well as posing a threat to them, all boxes ticked, unfortunately I learnt after the event. I hear ya, if they need to, they will do so, simple as that!!!
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
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  5. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    lol thought i made a mistake but i guess first time u noticed my FIBO mod, i guess i missed the above in your post that got me betting /testing like this

    i thought from a quick read of your fibo regres post you were going down two levels on fibo if winning bet was 8 or above, and one level if winning bet was at 5 or below on fibo progre//
    that's how i been playing, not resetting on any profit, but it makes sense, did you notice i was at profit on hand 23 too (+2) and didnt reset, resetting on positive might be what I am doing wrong///right??? lol its all luck anyway .. just remember that JK :)

    original scorecard attached, ignore the red writting another MM :)

    1,2,3,5 down 1 level on win
    8,13,21,34 down 2 levels on win


    SHOE1 1 aug 2019scorecard.jpg
     
  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Stepping back 2, is a personal thing, dependant on how far you would take things, if you are going up to the 144 level, then step back once, if you are stopping at 34u, then step back twice. But the first W5 cleared everything, so you should have started all over at 1u, unless most of the wins came on the Bank side and you have paid tax, so I would start at 2u. Nobody ever broke on small profits, so bet 1u all day is ok so long as you are winning those bets, but get back to 1u asap, because nobody knows.

    Not if everything is cleared. That is just inviting a bust sooner rather than later.

    LOL, twice you have made that statement. it's not about luck.

    You can get lucky on an individual hand, say winning a hand 9-8, but to win on a constant basis, it requires more than luck. It requires money management smarts, plus other characteristics.
     
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  7. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    i reran the shoe reseting at any profit, wow what a difference, it makes this playable again, of course this is only one shoe but will rerun my worst shoe from the other night. would have probably quit at hand 53 +13, but definetely at hand 65 +10

    i thought u would get the "all luck" reference as i often get that from other players/observers as im stacking up the chips, im sure you do also, as often i am the only winning player, and also the "nonsense" remarks i get when im writting down my scorecard and looking at it before every decision (low limit non junket areas) which take about 2 hours per shoe....ouch.. but i practice out there at low limits about $5 here minimum

    ...but i have to admit it is lucky i didnt bust the 34 unit bets not resetting through 8 shoes,,


    SHOE1 1 aug 2019RESET.jpg
     
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  8. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Good job, at least you are doing your homework, you have to protect your bankroll first and forth-most. A simple recollection when you went home broke should be all the motivation you need, plus remember this, the casino don't like you winning, they want you to be another mug who hands their wages over each week, so you are getting one over on them.

    Yes, you were lucky, but if you were more savvy, you would have realised you cold have avoided even going to 34u (next time aye) ;)

    I would call it a skill, it is indeed a skill to be able to recover +100 unit draw-downs as I did back in the day. I was reading an old post of mine on GG last night looking for some STAR/Ryder info, I was reminded about using a 7 step pre-progression followed by a "up to" 144u Fibo progression (11 steps), betting DBL only. I did win a lot of money in a 2 week period playing that way, despite having bust the 144u progression twice. Simply re-start all over a bit more aggressively and methodically, still managing to take a small profit from what would have been a marathon session.

    That redone shoe you posted, consider the ramifications of turning a good shoe into a bad shoe. Bail earlier if you are doing well, the casino want to bet every hand, until the end of the shoe, fuck 'em, then fuck 'em some more....
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
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  9. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    Hi everyone, just a quick update regarding my game. Well, as long as I played small bets, everything went so smoothly, like 5 chips per shoe and no problem, step by step. Today, after I come back from work, I decided to take a shot, play by 5GBP chips instead of 2, and how do you think what happened? First, bad shoe sinks me like 13 chips down by divisor, and then just raised back to the beginning. The second bad wave came and I almost lost all my bankroll, I must place 9units which I had only left 8,5u :) so I just place all I had and I just won several in the row. I jump to another shoe as the first one finished, and the new one gave me a surprise of 6 in the row loses but later everything become just fine. We are gamblers, but I do not want to be :) I should stick to the strategy regarding my bankroll, but graphic looks very nice! I promise I will go slowly from tomorrow :) Have a good evening everyone!

    (Reminder: 7 days ago I deposited 20u and testing Divisor with the random bets, right now I have 340u or 1700% profit :) )
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
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  10. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Some of are!

    Others consider us Gamblers, I personally don't like gambling, I get no buzz from the participation of gambling. I just like the money, yes winning is fun (tax free money), losing sucks, waiting to find out if you win or lose also sucks. I treat it as business, therefore I am a shrewd businessman :D
     
  11. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    Well, I am investor, INVESTOR to high-risk investments :) can make 1700% per 7 days :D or lose all haha
     
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  12. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    2nd shoe OF 1 Aug SESSION 23w/21l plus 27 hand 55 -highest 27 (hand 52/55) -low -1 hand7 -biggest bet 13 (won) hand 42

    resetting at profit caused some unit gain decreases (not much), but its much safer, the sheet has both ways, as played and with adjustments, i also added some other MMs im testing (Bailey options) with my bet selection and results, i wont post those unless requested

    I will be playing my next live session using the reset at profit option JK Fibo Regression as pointed out by JK..OR the 16 unit Rider, with 5 virtual loss

    thanks


    SHOE2 1 aug 2019.jpg
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Hi mat8, I don't wish to be pedantic, are you sure how a Fibonacci is suppose to operate.

    The normal progression runs, 1-1-2-3-5-8 etc.

    I removed one of the "1's" so that LW will return a profit, if you go up and down the scale you get profit by 2 units. It doesn't always require back to back wins, WLW will do. My regress option is there to stop you hitting your upper limit, just in case you don't snare the 2nd win.

    Again, looking at example, bet #20 @ 5u was won, bet #21 @3u was lost, bet #22 @ 5u was won, so there is your WLW sequence. Now restart at 1u, or if you wish to be aggressive, start at 2u but if you do, make sure you will take it further than the 34u. Yet you go back to 3u???

    W-L-W is enough, those extra units you won are not worth the pressure when you start having to place those larger bets. You only regress at the upper scale, just in case....
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
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  14. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Keep it going BeJustRich!

    You stuck to your guns without wavering which was the most important thing. Keeping belief in what you are doing when it gets a bit ropey is not so easy.
     

  15. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    There was a case of a Asian woman who won $7,000,000 within a short time frame from the Crown in Melb' many years ago. If she is who I think she is, is from Vietnam, I've shared a table with her, got to admit she impressed me, I've never seen anything like it.

    Busy table in Adelaide, she has $20k on the Banker, my bet selection calls for me to bet Player, so I put my paltry smaller bet on the Player (sod all that protocol bullshit, she doesn't pay my bills). She oozed such positivity, which you don't normally see at the tables, anyway, she's not happy with my opposing bet asks me to take it off, which I politely decline. So she removes my bet and tells me if she loses her bet, she will pay me, so I say okay. Pitboss was ok with it, which was surprising as you can get barred for side-betting in the UK.

    4 Cards are out face down, one by one the Player cards are turned over to reveal a natural 8, I'm sitting there thinking, I was right, she doesn't flinch or show the slightest concern, hasn't even peaked at hers yet, slowly she reveals a picture, rubs the second on the card on the box numbered 9. Starts chanting toya toya or something like that, gets down real low, boom shackalacka, throws over a 9 (yeah she returned my otherwise lost chip).Then she is turning to me, telling me I told you, I never dare bet against her ever again. It was incredible to witness. Later her husband joined the table, what a guy.

    You know those moments you meet those type of people that resonate a certain type of energy. They etch themselves in your memory bank, one of the nicest people I've ever met at any table, super super friendly, a real pleasure to meet, great couple, a pleasure to be around. Later saw his wife in the VIP rooms on the Gold coast, we said hello, was looking forward to her showing her magic once again, unfortunately the luck had deserted her this time around.

    Back to the $7m, if it is the same woman, she didn't hold on to that either, went on a Junket around Oz and blew the lot, but I guess she was still smiling. The Crown were livid, as there is a lot of casino rivalry. They never recouped their $7M, instead it was distributed amongst competing casinos.

    True Story Bro.
     
  17. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I started looking at this Neural Strategy as a five step instead of the 7 or 8 step. It allows for a smaller bankroll. It should lose more often though. But I do very well enough with 5 steps. So I'm focused on reading randomness type bet selections and virtual guesses. It will take a lot of practice sessions to convince myself that I have the sweat spots all worked out.
     
  18. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    JK,

    i think u missed the adjustement just below that, if i understand you right...

    you are right that is how it WAS played, but if you look at the version below that, i adjusted and reset on any new, high, and reposted it hand by hand for comparison. (theres a reset orange box)

    I played 3 shoes today and went even further per your guidance and reset also when i got back to even and/or a new high, as to keep the bets as low as possible, my original goal and what intrigued me about your FIBO REGRE post (to keep bets low), and although the win result was lower, it is much safer...

    i will post sheets later, thanks for the guidance.

    todays shoes 3AUG, total 3 shoes played

    1/ 24w/17L easy shoe +20 hand 55 20,000 pesos about $400 USD

    2/ 13w/17L UGLY---started with 7 straight losses 1,2,3,5,8,13,21 finally double tie on 34unit bet before finally winning and was at +11 when quit at hand 43 (quit early, felt ugly pattern was about to reform) lady luck was with me on the end 34bet, but i havent seen 7 str8 losses in a long time, and never my first 7 bets of a shoe // +11 hand 43 11,000 pesos about $220 USD

    3/ 22w/14L easy +18 at hand 57 18,000 pesos $360 USD

    total won 49 units, 49,000 pesos , $980 won
    brought home, 44250 pesos plus 1500 peso junket comission (1,3%) = 45750 pesos (about $915)

    thanks for the continued advice
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
  19. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Jacoblaze, yeah the bottom version is correct, maybe don't show those Tie bets, as they are pointless and confusing.

    BTW - You don't drop back after any new high, this just means you have to play for longer, which increases your exposure. You still aim for WW or WLW, the exception is, unless you have regressed.
     
  20. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    Scarne's Asian woman played in Las Vegas in the 1960's.

    Junket King:

    Everything goes by mathematics, axiomaticule. There are clear patterns in a game like baccarat; or clear WL streaks in a game like blackjack. They all have undeniable underlining formulas.

    Evidently, progressive betting is the only way to lay out your monies. But I discard of progressions such as d’Alembert or Fibonacci. They can miss the main purpose more often than not: Wipe out the losses (L).

    Only Limited-step Martingale can serve the purpose. The keyword is limited-step progression.

    I just played again blackjack as per my previous post (with the screenshot argued against by psycho Don Schlesinger). I won again. It ain’t easy like in fairy tales: Strong discipline is required. The practice is not hard, though:

    The Mental Blackjack System: Mathematics of Gambling Streaks, Limited-Step Martingale Betting.
     
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