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Baccarat Progressions

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I did have to google that, for it's meaning.
    I get it..

    “God fears mathematics, while Einstein hates gambling.”


    I agree, I designed my own.

    Can't agree with that statement, even simple 1-2-4 has you requiring 7 wins within 3 bets, just to recoup, worst if you took it to 4 steps and bet 8u. A staggered Marty perhaps? 1-2-4 then 2-4-8, 4-8-16...

    Anyway, I've got my own thing going....
     
  2. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    Keep in mind, though, you wiped off 3 losses (L). The bottom line will show 3 fewer losses for you, even if they were replaced by only one W. One more streak like that in 100 hands — and you turned the house edge in your favor.

    Just a few tweaks in taking blackjack insurance can also turn the bet in your favor. Unfortunately, the dealer doesn’t have more blackjack situations when fewer Tens came out in the current round.
     
  3. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Everything I've read advises not to take insurance. However, I don't play BJ so it doesn't matter.
     
  4. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    “Everything I've read advises not to take insurance.”
    … unless you’ve seen a certain amount of Tens on the table.

    Indeed, on average, bj insurance is a bad bet, virtually equal to the real house edge at blackjack: 8%. And people still play blackjack!

    But, with 7 players at the table — and NO Tens dealt in the first two hands — the player enjoys a whopping 30% house advantage!

    Granted, such situations are rare — but they are possible, especially with the crooked automatic shufflers…

    Blackjack Probability, Odds: 21, Insurance, Double Down, Pair Splits, Hits, Stand.
     
  5. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Great job Junket King on outlining the Fibonacci progression style and posting everything! It is outperforming on several baccarat shoes I have to work through. I think it is difficult for a skill player to get smacked more than 6 or 7 in a row on a specific baccarat shoe. So far one shoe I have goes up to that level, but the variations of the Fibonacci progression style that I am trying (which are not absolutely correct) swept back for big W.


    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    When I get time, I'll show you's how to add a lot more depth for an extra few units.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
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  7. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    TODAY I HAD THE WORSE OF THE WORSE SHOE EVER:

    W
    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L ADDED +300U
    W WIN +100 (TOTAL 400)
    W WIN +100 (TOTAL 500)
    L BANKROLL 400
    L BANKROLL 300
    L BANKROLL 200
    L BANKROLL 100
    L LOST BANKROLL 100
    L 0
    W IF I ADDED ANOTHER TOP-UP I COULD WIN THIS SHOE!!!
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    L
    L
    W
    W
    W


    I STARTED WITH 20GBP AND REACHED THE BIGGEST BANKROLL OF 408GBP

    I DID NOT SURVIVE AFTER 30TH SHOE BECAUSE OF OVERBETING (INCREASED DURING THE GAME MY 2 UNIT BET TO 5 UNIT BET)
    FILES ATTACHED.



    GAME.jpg InkedLOSSSSSSS_LI.jpg
    GAME 1.jpg
     
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  8. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I gotta agree with the parapluck. A short leashed grand marty works great bucking up against certain bets selection, hey hey.
     
  9. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Member

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    I analyzed my game where I lost. Well, I did mistake by betting, seems I dismissed of few planned bets and it turned my game to disaster. How terrible I feel right now because of this mistake. This shoe should be 28wins and 33losses. (now 15 wins and 32loses).
    Normally my shoes go 50-50 or very close to it regarding loss and win. This is the main point of using a random number generator.

    SO QUESTION TO EVERYONE, WHAT BET SELECTION DO YOU USE TO BE AS CLOSER AS POSSIBLE IN ONE SHOE 50-50 LOSS/WIN RESULT?

    (i need easy one, not complicated one, as it is limited time to place a bet)
     
  10. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    BeJustRich, nobody can answer that, it is also the wrong question to ask.

    What is the point of a bet selection resolving to 50% if in the middle is is prone to LLLLLLLL W LLLLLLLL, but resolves to 50%??

    I've said it often enough, this is a money game, the Divisor system looks decent enough for online players. From reading your posts, IMO your MM is good enough, but your bet selection is the major flaw, ditch that excel random stuff, it obviously isn't working.

    Like you said, time is limited when playing online (I play using the same feed), you get rushed, prone to making mistakes, so the first thing you need to do, is explore options that do not have betting every hand. Templates are perfect for this, plus they are still playing a random game against random outcomes. Plus they go some way to controlling loss strings.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
  11. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    If ya can handle gettin clipped in the short term then I would advise betting bankers only as over time you will win more hands than lose. That is key if yer gonna use any deep negative progression style, hey hey.
     
  12. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    thanks for posting the detailed update i know it can be hard after a loss, but we all learn and you learn also, you were going for 5 units every shoe? and then moving on to another shoe? what was is the 25% colum? thanks
     
  13. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    """I STARTED WITH 20GBP AND REACHED THE BIGGEST BANKROLL OF 408GBP"""

    if you got time and patience i would continue what you are doing, and just take this set back as a learning tool

    but.......



    for me the closest i got to 50/50 shoes was random betting much like you described your bet selection, but i always played all shoe, as that is a requirement at lower level brick and mortar limits, unless you get in a busy casino and got hours to spend on 1 shoe...but i like to play alone and play shoes fast

    i actually have posts on here where i showed a system similar to yours and took i think $50? to $350? before busto on an online casino and posted updated results.. it was a while back so forgot the details, and i started at $1 or $2 bets and progressed higher, it quickly becomes a grind as I was playing $100 units at BM casino and playing $1 and $2,$3 etc at an online casino, but i was just hit and running shoes .. just click my name and search my posts if interested...

    i have similar bet selection to yours now but i used data from all roads in the random generation of my next bet decision, but as i posted on here earlier once i see a run of 6, i jump on that run and ignore my random bet selection, until run is exhausted, this keeps me in the "flow" of the shoe... if it flows.... i dont do the same for chop runs though, as i havent got hit hard by chops as my "random" bet selection jumps in and out of B/P randomly :)

    random bet selection is not popular here because some people think they know what is coming next, i tried and I cant ever figure out whats next, but random gets me there when playing many hands, once you get to big units/ $100 /$500 then you can look for those "posts" that have some merit on their selection, one i can think of now if u want to limit hands in shoe and play BIG $ is a post by "Bacaratforaliving" i think thats his name, but there are multiple examples...good luck
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
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  14. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    You're welcome.

    How to get more from the Fibonacci

    From the poor house to the Penthouse.


    The Star/Ryder system was based on Parlays and recovery sets.

    When I read this system, it sparked a light bulb, put a delay on the progression.

    You sometimes you can read something and it takes you off in another direction, that is what the STAR system did for me.

    After dabbling with things, then realised you can play around with the delay part.

    So here is something I posted over at the 'Glen' 10 years ago.

    I would like to emphasise again it is the Money Management posts folk need to focus on, doesn’t matter which, Labby’s or the Fibo’s, and everything in-between. Money Management in the game of Baccarat is KING. You won’t succeed with a decent staking plan, along with options. Bet selection at best is 50-50 and there is nothing you or I can change that in any way.

    The original way I implemented it at the tables.

    Flat bet five times, then when you have lost these five units, bet five times this amount using a Fibonacci progression once you hit the progression stage..

    Therefore it would run something like this,

    $25-$25-$25-$25-$25- then $125 - $200 - $325 etc

    Or

    $10-$10-$10-$10-$10- then $50 followed by either $100 if using $50 units, alternately $25, $50. $75 if using $25 units.

    What are the options to stretch this a little, squeezing a little more leeway were making wrong decisions is not costing a great deal. A stress free approach to playing when in the pre-stage? Rather than trying to recoup the five lost bets in one bet, work the units backs.

    Starting with a base bet of $10.

    $10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 = -$70 once bust. now you change to playing $25 units with a goal target of three or four.

    Same approach for the $25 min tables..

    $25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25 = -$150 then 3 units @ $50

    or

    $25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25 = -$200 then 4units at @ $50 or 2 units @ $100

    Consider UK playing conditions, most tables are £5 min, great for adding depth to STAR.

    £5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5 = -£35 you have many ways to play your progression stage depending on your comfort zone.

    Switch to £10 units, the goal target would be 4
    Switch to $25 units, the goal target would be 3

    However you can expand all options further.

    Let’s take the UK tables.

    £5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5 = -£50, 10 step pre-progression stage!!

    £5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5 = -£100 20 step pre-progression stage!!

    You simply set a goal of 4 x £25 or 2 x £50.

    All depends on the players bankroll, what they feel comfortable betting. If you can’t see yourself betting 5 x £50, then don’t play £50 units.

    The same applies to the $10 minimum tables.

    $10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 = $100 you can cut this off anywhere you like, you can even design it so the progression stage shows a little profit to compensate for the 5% Banker commission.

    You also have the option of switching to a Labouchere for the back end. This would ease some of the pressure playing the bigger unit size, It’s more manipulative but comes with a higher win ratio.

    Let’s say $25 minimum tables and you have decided to use an 8 stage pre-progression stage for a total cost of $200, you have decided to use $50 unit value for the progression stage, as you don’t fancy betting stacks of blacks.

    You eventually lose those 8 green chips. Using a normal Fibonacci you would be expect to make a first recovery bet of $50, then $100 then $150, $250, $400, $650 etc.

    Rather than do all this, you are going to take the Labby approach.

    You need to recoup $200 so you construct a string consisting of;

    1-1-1-1 (each 1 = $50), ok if you are thinking, I need to bet $100 then $150, $200 given a series of losses. Not really, you can build a bit of cushion into it.

    Let’s bet $50, if you win the string will be.

    1-1-1

    If you lose the string is;

    1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2

    The Labby will run like a Fibonacci at the front end, 1-2-3 then tappers off.


    Same principal applies to the lower value amounts.

    $10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 then construct a Labby string of 1-1-1-1 (1= $25)

    Engaging your Labby tactics as you please, splitting the string, betting only the left hand side, then the right hand side, both sides.

    You should be adequately capitalized for the progression stage. Maybe drop down to the table minimum or wait until you have increased your bankroll.

    The bigger the pre-progression stack expect to tread water longer, you could play entire shoes and never hit the progression stage, as I often did using a pre-stack of 8 chips. Great if you want to play for comps. The profit may be non-existent if you are only flat betting. You don’t win but you don’t lose. Whatever your pre-stack size, once that is positive take any access chips and place them with the rest of your chips never to be returned. It can become boring, maybe attempt the odd Parlay.

    Obviously the fewer units you have to win in the progression stage, the quicker you would expect to meet this goal and return to the pre-progression stack.

    You need to find a balance that suits, if you want to play 5 and 10 dollar / pound units, then reduce the pre-progression stage so that the progression unit requirement is not that great. Something along the lines of,

    5-5-5-5-5 = 3u at 10
    or
    5-5-5-5-5-5 = 3u at 10
    or
    5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 = 4u at 10

    The smaller the pre-progression stack the quicker it will become depleted, more so if you include a lot of Parlays.
    You have the best of both worlds, scope for positive progression plus the back-end (recovery) is already mapped out.

    Does it work? Difficult to do online, in a B&M joint, if I’m playing solo and have to bet every hand, it is perfect, keep the pre-stack separate from the rest of your buyin. I use a 7 pre-stack (dispensable foot soldiers trying to capture the enemy), it provides a lot of lee-way when it comes to actually bet selection.

    Over a decade ago, within a two week period playing every day I raked in $40k, not making this up as I did mention it over at the Glen at the time. Feasible when your young, plenty of testosterone and no fear. Averaging $3000 per night, less than 120 chips.

    My pre-stack was $10 units x 8 from memory and the recoup stage $25 units. The bet selection was strictly DBL (Decision Before Last) no deviation. I was prepared and did take the Fibonacci to the 144u bet level. I had bigger balls back then than I do now. I actually lost the 144u bet at $3600 on two occasions and still came back.

    **Warning** Attempt this as your own risk, I particularly choose the pre-stack size after testing DBL for my worst case shoes for repeating 2’s. This was well over 10 years ago and since then I’ve seen some God awful shoes for DBL, there would be smarter ways to run with this than DBL.

    Enjoy.
     
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  15. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    Hi JK,

    Do you mean just quit the shoe once i get my desired unit profit?
     
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Let's start a new thread, as this is suppose to be about Progression.
     
  17. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    wow , once again a post that is worth saving, you are an excellent writer.

    I quickly read about half and I know I need to save it and cogitate it for the ideas that you are presenting.

    "i used a big word for u, for me anyway had to look it up"
     
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  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Not on a per shoe basis no. I do go to the casino with a goal target in mind. If you have played a really good shoe, then bail at around hand 60, not worth risking turning a good shoe into a bad one (and don't look back). Personally I've usually faired better when accompanied by a friend, e, two-heads are always better than one.

    LOL, I had to Google that myself :D:D

    Cheers, hope it gives you so ideas and options regarding the Fibo.

    My experiences at the tables has taught me, the casinos don't like those players which have excellent money management smarts, those players that already know how much the next bet will be if they lost a bet, along with rock solid composure and discipline. They want players gazing at the score board trying to figure out from past history the next independent non-correlated trial.

    They love gamblers that will buyin for $1000 and their first bet is $300, hell yeah, they don't even mind if they win, because they know and expect greed to take over. Be smart, be wise ;)
     
  19. JAMESBANKROLL009

    JAMESBANKROLL009 Member

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    I don't agree with this quote because in the game of Baccarat the king is you... ;)
     
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  20. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Cheers James :)

    Maybe one day there will be a band of "Johno devotee's" pissing of casino's all around the world, exercising upmost discipline while having excellent mm prowess :D
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019

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