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Baccarat Progressions

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    theres a really nice set up here, nicest ive seen in Solaire casino in Manila, brand new about 4 months...8 shoes are dealt by live dealers, its way nicer then the one at venetian/palazzo

    all super six though, 200 peso minimum about $4 usd
     
  2. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Hey, have you heard of a guy called Swami? White American over 80yrs old now, fit, enters body building comp for his age bracket, he has lived all over Asia, he's in Davos now, was quite active on the internet boards years ago, nowadays sticks with lets talk winning.
     
  3. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    When you won the 13u bet twice, you have recouped the lost 21u bet. Now you attempt to recoup the lost 13u bet, 5, 5 ,5.

    This is precisely why I start with a target, 10 or 20 units, and attempt to work the starting figure down to zero, updating after each bet. It helps me keep track of where I am in the game, what it has blown out to. Easier to dig yourself out of a small hole than a creator.
     
  4. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Member

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    I will do my best as it is not fully mechanical as I said, and I am not completely done testing variations of it. So far, I bet one unit, then double it if I lose. I have lost 3 units at this point if that fails which I turn into a labby of 1-1-1. I then wait and do not bet until I get a virtual win. Then I will bet the first number, and then if I win again I will bet the first and last numbers. If I lose, I add the number to the back. I then bet the first and last number. After 2 losses, I always wait for a virtual win to restart. This is what saves me from large losing streaks. I am not good at explaining things, but I will give an example.

    1-1-1 I bet first 1, then I lose, so (I only do this on the first bet of the 1-1-1 string. I always bet first and last after this)
    1-1-1-1 I now bet first and last 1 and I lose, so
    1-1-1-1-2 now I have lost 2 in a row, so I wait for virtual win, then restart
    1-1-1-1-2-3 Virtual win happened, but now I lost again, so I add the 3 to end. (first 1 and last 2=3 loss)
    1-1-1-2 I won, so I cross off first and last
    1-1 I won, if I win next I am done
    Now finished, the 3 units have been made back.

    What has been saving me is the 2 loss limit and then waiting for the virtual win. I originally went with one that is in the midas method, but it does not work for win/loss/win/loss streaks which sometimes is all you get after a bad losing streak. I have had 11 in a row loss streaks that only costs me the original 3 units because I was not betting on 9 of those losses. I also do splitting when the bets do get too large. The midas method also has you betting 1 number through losing streaks, where I do not bet at all through them. Of course, the nemesis is getting a win and then 2 losses over and over again. I have not had them continue long enough to even come close to blowing out a bankroll, even on the craps field bet.

    It needs a really good bet selection. It has been working well with betting against every 2 bankers, but those bets are just too rare to be for everyday play. I tried betting player only, but it will fail in major banker dominant shoes. It cannot bet on banker unless it is no commission since it will render the progression useless.
     
    JacobBlaze likes this.
  5. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I would be tapping on some extra 1's on that, like you said, you may not break even once you factor in B tax.
    No point risking money, if there is no profit at the end, even if it's a recoup.

    If you keep on doing this, you are blowing out the Labby's 33% win rate, to 33% +2, the more it grows the hard it will be to resolve.

    1-1-1-1 is already requiring a 33% +4 win rate

    1-1-1-1, lose 1u, then 1-1-1-2,

    That's impressive.

    Exactly, so tap on at least an extra 1.
     
    shattered dreams likes this.
  6. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    do you mean when you first start playing your target is 10 or 20 units, or once you have lost approx 10 to 20 units you set your target for recovery?

    im working on a more concrete recovery plan for the 9 losses in a row shoe I had yesterday,

    im thinking of starting once i drop the 5unit bet, then my recovery will only be about 10units, or the 8 unit bet then my recovery will be about 20units, I know i got lucky yesterday again to recover and not be at -85 that shoe,

    from what i read in your posts either start a labby, I'll take the 8bet loss as example and have to recover 20ish, so the labby would be a flavor of below?

    1 1 1 1 1
    1 1 1 1 1
    1 1 1 1 1
    1 1 1 1 1

    or

    move up to 3xunit for me it would be 3000 pesos ($60)

    and try to win 7 units of 3000 (21 units recoups 20 unit loss)
    im confident in my play that i should be able to get 5 to 7 units a shoe, playing delay JK Fibo regresion,

    or labby with new unit value of

    1 1 1
    1 1 1 1

    to recoup 7 units of 3000?

    How would you play it?

    thanks
     
  7. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    i would start a new shoe in both of these options
     

  8. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Thanks for the updates and posts to everyone. I should have emphasized that ^^^^ This is testing. So far my attempts to game the progressions have not really yielded much of an advantage because there is often a reduction in overall performance.
     
  9. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    This is going back a few years.

    I would write out 10, and work that figure to zero, I'm up 10units once achieved. Keep going until you bust or hit the target. Then write another 10 and continue, and so on. You want to win 50 units, then you will have to achieve this x 5.


    The Fibonacci is more aggressive than the Labby. Today I play my string method which is based on the Labby, if I lose (Sunday), I'll revert to the Fibonacci, I don't do things the other way round as you suggest. Labby first, if all hell breaks loose, then a Fibonacci.

    I won't play with a Fibo nowadays unless I'm in dire straits, because it can have horrendous outcomes, it's playing by the seat of your pants, you just don't know when your bet selection won't conform. So prefer to avoid it.

    Doesn't make any difference, other than to enable you to get your thoughts together and consider your options.
     
  10. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    How about putting a decent 7 chip delay in front and parlaying the pre-stack on occasions? That should avoid having to bet 55u
     
  11. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    The percentage increase in performance is wayyyyyy big such that the 21, 34, and 55 are worth it, but anyone playing this type of progression is going to have to get used to accelerating big.

    How about putting a decent 7 chip delay in front and parlaying the pre-stack on occasions?

    ^^^ What would this be? Thanks!
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019
  12. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    It's on page 12, my long post about Star... Adjust to fit.
     
  13. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Thanks, here is an example that went very deep multiple times. Positive progression is included, and ties/ pushes/ and no bets are 0. Not resetting on break even or new profit high water mark points.

    The outcome on this baccarat shoe is very good actually, but in the big picture including straight Fibonacci negative progression it is even better:

    0
    0
    0
    -1
    -1
    +2
    +1
    -3
    -5
    -8
    -13
    +21
    +8
    0
    -3
    +5
    +3
    -2
    +3
    -2
    -3
    -5
    -8
    -13
    0
    -21
    0
    0
    -34
    +55
    -21
    -34
    0
    +55
    +21
    +8
    -3
    +5
    -3
    -5
    -8
    +13
    +5
    +3
    +2
    -1
    -1
    -2
    -3
    +5
    +3
    -2
    +3
    0
    -2
    3
    0
    0
    -2
    +3
    0
    -2
    +3
    +2
    +1
    +3
    0
    -2
    -3
    +5
    -3
    +5
    -3
    -5
    +8
    -3
    -5
    +8
     
  14. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Didn't go through it all, not sure what is going on at the start.

    1-1-2? Sure the original Fibo runs that way, but most of your wins will be within 3 bets, so make the most of that, if you're going to risk money, make it 1-2-3, as opposed to 1-1-2


    You won 21u, regressed, great, also won the 8u bet, for the next bet, I would have bet 5u (lost), then back up to 8 (won), still missing 3 units for a 2u profit, so drop back to 3u. then restart from 1.

    Win 5u then win 3u, is complete, a 2u profit if you had started 1-2-3. Doing what you did here by betting 2u had dire consequences later on. Always be thinking ahead, of what might happen, in this case, it did happen.

    Had you gone back to 1u as I stated above, that 21u bet would have been 13u, they won 55u would have been at 34u.

    Tell me the table minimum where you play and I'll see if I can knock up a suggestion...
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019

  15. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Sorry man. I have to be more careful, but that is what is going on when I have 1 -3 versions of the same baccarat shoe going. In my rush I pasted the variant that sticks with 1 1 2 3 5 8... I am not betting the first three hands and the other 0s are tie/ pushes.

    Here is the correct one:

    0
    0
    0
    -1
    -2
    +3
    +2
    -1
    -2
    -3
    -5
    +8
    +3
    0
    -2
    +3
    +2
    -1
    +2
    -1
    -2
    -3
    -5
    -8
    0
    -13
    0
    0
    -21
    +34
    -13
    -21
    0
    0
    +13
    +5
    -3
    +5
    -3
    -5
    -8
    +13
    +5
    +3
    +2
    -1
    +2
    -1
    -2
    +3
    +2
    -1
    0
    +2
    0
    -1
    +2
    0
    0
    -1
    2
    0
    -1
    +2
    +1
    +3
    +2
    0
    -1
    -2
    +3
    -2
    +3
    -2
    -3
    +5
    -3
    -5
    +8
     
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    What happened here?

    You place a 34u bet and win, regress cool, but lose the next 2 bets, but don't repeat the 34u bet?? You went to 34u level the first time but not the 2nd?? Shame because you won the next bet there-after. Which would have meant the next bet after that (34 cancels 21 + 13), then 13u (cancels the 8 +5, leaving you to win a 5 + 3) won, next bet would have been 5.

    Either you go there, or you don't. By the way, when I'm betting those kind of amount, I hedge the Tie, I keep a track of lost Tie bets and aim to recoup them later on. Saved my ass many a time.

    So what is the table minimum??
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019
  17. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Sorry!!! Where I play the widespread common table minimum is $10 USD. Those tables have lower maximums. Now I think you can range between $50 USD up to around $15,000 - $20,000 USD without a talk about higher limits on the midi tables.

    Drats. I will have to look. I think I saw the double tie and rigged it with a step down? Maybe I am going through my testing too fast with too many variations. But so far my variations haven't been that big of a worthwhile result.

    Crap there is a
    0
    +34
    missing. I am going to fast in my copy paste from Excel into here.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019
  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Ok, without asking personal information regarding the size of your bankroll or what is your starting bet usually is.

    I'd be sitting at the $10 table (I'd be sitting at the $10 table even with a $10k BR, because I prefer to win than to gamble).

    Take 7 x $10 chips and put aside as a pre-stack, you flat bet these, Parlay if you wish, it is optional.

    Anytime your pre-stack goes beyond 7, take any excess chips and put it with the rest of your buyin, never to be returned to the pre-stack.

    Keep on playing, no pressure, have fun. When all your foot soldiers have been captured and are sitting in the casino's tray, now the battle begins along with the pressure. Doesn't matter how many chips you won before you depleted your pre-stack.

    You have a few options depending on your available bankroll.


    Stick at the $10 level but your first initial bet is 2u, you need to win 10 units (losing those 7 foot soldiers won't be entirely in vain).

    OR, bring out the heavy artillery.

    You need to win 4 units @ $25 using a Fibo, make sure you have depth!!!!!

    You would need $70 for your pre-stack and at least another $2k for a $25 chip progression (be prepared to place $525 bets or more). If that sounds stomach churning, this is Baccarat, no edge, all you got is your MM and composure. Money is King in this game. $2500 should cover you, the more the better.

    If you don't wish to play $25 units and rather stay at $10u (first initial bet only, 2u), then you could probably get away with $1500. I recommend this to begin with.

    What I suggest, is re-visit that shoe were you had to bet 34 units. You should now come nowhere near as close to having to make such a sizeable bet, due to the cushion that the pre-stack gives you.

    You can operate with a smaller pre-stack if you wish, 5 maybe. But ensure, when you hit the progression stage, that a few chips profit is included, you do want something in return for taking the risk, it shouldn't just be about recovery only.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019
    Terry Plumb likes this.
  19. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Thanks. I'm integrating it as a defensive measure that actually has a lot of offense in it. Once it gets wound up a bit and can hold ground it scores a lot.

    Many techniques.
     
  20. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    Reread your fibo/star post looking for options on tackling a 9 loss in a row shoe

    what was your bankroll for this adventure? 500units?
     

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