1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Join our $5,000 Cash Giveaway!

    Win Cash by Posting and Inviting New Members!
  3. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  4. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play sub-forum.
    Dismiss Notice

Baccarat Progressions

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2018
    Likes:
    55
    Location:
    Vegas

    AFTER your 8 unit $10 pre-progression stage did you go into a $25unit FIBO up to 144bet, or did you go to labby? and then the fibo , how did you decide when to go to a fibo (how many units down) if you did use a labby?

    how was your labby initially set up?

    1-1-1-1 $25 labby?
     
  2. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    758
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    I just looked up my records, sometimes they include the odd comment.

    I normally record my buyin, but didn't back then. It was 21st Oct 2004, I had achieved some decent wins for the 3 nights prior, so I don't recall how flush I was. 11 losses in a row, at cost of just over $9k, minus what I had won prior to getting smacked. All my note states, is that I had to recover $3k inside 2 shoes (maybe that means I was 6k up before that one shoe, I'm not sure). I used a Fibonacci to recoup but started the first bet at 3u or 5u, I can't believed I played like that, but I did, wouldn't do so today. I won $135.00 for the day, LOL

    Then went on to winning my next 10 sessions (14 in total) playing every day, before taking a hit. Usually after taking a hit, I start exploring other options.

    Back then, it all was Fibonacci, don't recall the pre-stack number, probably 5 flat bets at $25, then hit the progression, really can't recall that far back. I never used a Labby, or maybe once which got me into a lot of trouble.

    I never used these multiple strings back then, I wasn't that smart.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019
    JacobBlaze likes this.
  3. R19

    R19 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2018
    Likes:
    53
    Location:
    USA
    ok - now looking at next move after a loss in positive progression.

    Let's say the positive progression is 1 2 3 4 for example:

    - Before I would pick up into the next closest negative progression after a loss in the positive progression

    Ex: 1 2 3 4 1 2 -3 -----> 5 3 2 1 2...
    Ex: 1 2 3 4 1 2 -3 -----> -5 -8 -13 -21...


    - Now will look at resetting to 1 after a loss in the positive progression

    Ex: 1 2 3 4 1 2 -3 -----> 1 2 3 4 1...
    Ex: 1 2 3 4 1 2 -3 -----> -1 -2 -3 -5...


    The difference is that a loss at the higher end of a positive progression will jump you into a higher point in the negative progression in my most recent look. A reset to 1 will ground the play back into a safer zone as far as going deep into the negative progression.
     
  4. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    758
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Gotcha.

    Hey, it's just my opinion, but positive progressions don't work. Just look at your example above, W1, W2, W3 L4, the end results is a push (trust me, I've gone through it my a load of pen tops). You would be better off flat betting. Unless you somehow think you are going to win 6 in a row on regular basis (odds firmly against that happening) .

    Due to the abundance of long streaks online, I would love to ride them with a positive progression. So my trigger has me winning the first Banker at 1u,, I feel like betting again, repeat 1u on the Bank, win, ah well might as well stay on the bloody thing, you just never know. Win again, I'm now up 3u's, could this be the one, bet 2u, lose, for fucks sakes. I go through this online a lot, when I've caught a streak early, win a, load of 1u bets, increase to 2u, win a few of those, increase to 3u lose. I mix it up, W2, bet 1u, then bet 2u, back down to 1.

    When people look at betting positive, the forget about the last losing bet.

    When I suggesting Parlay's during the Pre-stack, I was thinking maybe the once, or using a 1-1-2 up as you win.
     
  5. eugene

    eugene Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2016
    Likes:
    218
    Location:
    united kingdom
    True! And it's the same for the majority of players who trend as well and say things like ''well, it's only risking one unit to see how far it can go''

    How many decisions did it take you to decipher the trend and don't forget you are going to end on a loss or two as well. The maths don't always add up despite best intentions.
     
    Junket King likes this.
  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    758
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Haha, good one, I've been throwing the question at trenders for years, they all ignore it, especially Roberta the great one, at least Jim (and only he) had a go at answering it.
     
  7. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2018
    Likes:
    55
    Location:
    Vegas

    Using ideas from JKs post//

    here is an attempt at a replay recovery of my shoe yesterday with 9 straight losses, i know it is curve fitting the results, but that's how i replay and look at safer options for my bet selection / MM

    first part of sheet i play to -10 of high shoe flat betting then begin fibo at 3X original unit as recovery (original unit is 1Kpeso about $20) so recovery begins with 3K ($60) bet at hand 38, my max at this junket is 100K ($2000) so the farthest i can take the FIBO without changing tables is (21Unit) 63,000 bet, i recoup at hand 44 and finish the shoe plus 8 at hand 61

    second part of sheet played the same but instead of FIBO i tested the labby ideas from JKs post,
    3 k unit LABBY of 1 1 1 1 begins at hand 38, and fully recovers with an additional +3 by hand 44, and finish shoe also plus 8.. I hope my gheto spreadsheet is clear.. thank you

    As you can see much easier played then being at -74 at hand 39 as original :) thanks JK

    ________________________________________________________________
    heres the rant from the BM shoe thread as well as original scorecard:

    shoe 4 / shoe high plus 2 hand 15, finished -9 hand 61, highest bet 21 (once lost) and 13 (5times), 22W / 25L, had 9 straight losses from hand 30-39, after 21 bet loss i decided to regress to 8 and try to win 3 bets of 8, loss first bet of 8, then tried 13 bet lost too (-74 units at this point in shoe hand 39) my stop loss was between 80 and 100 units, but had confidence my bet selection would come back (as it runs in waves), so i fired up another 13 bet at hand 40 won and then 13 again at hand 41 and won, i think if i lose the 13 at hand 40 putting me at -85, i quit the shoe and move up buy in levels to maybe $50 to $100 a unit to recover instead of $20 (played here), i was up about 20 units for the night so this kept me in the game, (and am up about 160 units on this JUNKET) (but i also always start with a 250 unit bankroll)

    hand 40/41 began recovery process but i wanted to get at least even for the night so i ended up -9 at hand 61, up about 10 units for the night so far minus commission, i counted at end of shoe and was only up about 5 units after commission (5000 pesos/about $100) , if i didnt learn about the fibo delay i would've definitely busted the 34 unit bet, and ended up -80ish that shoe
    ________________________________________________________________



    6AUG Shoe4.jpg
    IMG_20190806_161536.jpg
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2019
    Junket King likes this.

  8. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2018
    Likes:
    55
    Location:
    Vegas
    Replayed my best shoe from the night planning to use methods from above but never got out of the 10 preprogression finished shoe at plus 3 highest bet 1, all flat betting,as expected profit reduced per shoe, but much safer, if my selection is not working good, this -10 preprogression will help keep me out of trouble as demonstrated in my prior post

    ------------------
    heres original result

    shoe 1 / shoe high +8 hand 41, finished +8 hand 62 , highest bet 8 (one time) 27W/24
    -------------------------



    6AUG Shoe1.jpg
     
  9. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Likes:
    19
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Junket: Thank you for the advice. I make all the profit on the 1-2 progression. I tried to make the progression as conservative as possible so that it will not blow out. I have betting terminals that have ez baccarat, so if banker bets are needed, that is what I will use. I am going to look into shortening the string as you said. I have seen that before in the hp johnson guaranteed system.

    Jacob: You cannot bet through a losing streak with no loss limit, regardless of the progression used. What has always killed the progressions I tested is a large losing streak, a normal win/loss streak (say 4 wins/5 losses), then another large losing streak. For example, I tested my progression on results that went 2 wins/13 losses which is horrible. It went 8 losses 1 win 3 losses 1 win 2 losses. With a standard labby, you wind up with this.

    1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 which is a total of -55

    Mine went like this.

    1-1-1-1-2-3-4 which is a total of -13

    Remember, this is a terrible streak.:( However, what is going to happen if you get another losing streak like this before getting enough wins to resolve it? The standard labby will bust out, mine will not and although it will require splitting, it will recover. I hope this helps.:)
     
  10. R19

    R19 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2018
    Likes:
    53
    Location:
    USA
    Here's one to look at:
    A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy
    Post by stratocasterman » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:06 pm

    that discusses this negative progression:
    1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 15, 28, 36 Units
     
  11. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    8
    Location:
    Canada
    Hey Shattered dreams,

    How many bank roll units do you recommend playing your Labby way?

    Thanks
     
    shattered dreams likes this.
  12. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Likes:
    19
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    I personally would not use less than 200 units as a bankroll. I have not seen it need anything near that so it seems to be a safe amount. The worst drawdown that I ever saw was -75 units or so from peak profit, but I was already up around 35 units. In other words, I started with a $10,000 balance (play money starting balance at wizard of odds craps simulator), got up to $10,350, then got down to around $9,600 before recovering fully to over $10,400. This was with the craps field bet that has a 2.7% house advantage. I have not seen drawdowns this bad on the player bet on baccarat, and I should not considering the house advantage is less than half. Another thing to consider is that the field bet wins 44% of the time, while player wins 49% of the time. This is why I used the field bet because I knew if it was going to bust, the field bet would definitely do it.

    I do want to add that you need to test this thoroughly before playing with real money. I am confident that this is very good, but it will need a good bet selection method. The best I have found is to bet player after every 2 banker sequence. I can confirm that it does very well with that, but the bets are rare enough that you will need to play multiple shoes at once. Even with 4 shoes at once, the bets are not very frequent.
     
    Joey Torres likes this.
  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    758
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    No problem with doing that, this is exactly what I did when I decided to run with DBL and a 144u progression, I retro fitted it to handle the worst shoe I could find. The the casino decided to hit me with an even worst one :D

    There are a multitude of options when it comes to MM and thinking and reacting on the fly.

    A lot of which you will only learn through real world table experience. As an example, lets say you are either in the progression stage of a busted pre-stack, or have geared up you chip value. You have a goal of needing to clear 12 units at a higher chip level. You are up and down but eventually get the 12 down to 2 more to go. Not bad thus far. Only two more units and you are off this nervy higher chip level progression, however you simply don't know when you're going to be hit by another bad run, that may balloon those 2 units remaining into 22 units now remaining, this shit happens, we can't predict results. It's a bitch when it happens and it will do.

    So think smart as best you can when your under pressure. If you only have 2 units left to recoup, convert them to a lower unit level. For example, you are betting $100 units, convert them to $25 units and make your target 8. You might win your next two bets, but you weren't to know that in advance, you played it safe just in case. I do this all the time, especially if I've been playing for a long time and your self control is wafer thin. I'd rather battle to win 8 units at a lower chip level than 2 units at a higher chip level during some marathon session, and you're feeling exhausted.

    Yeah nice, one, I took some of my idea from that, incorporating into the strings.

    LOL, ain't that the truth. It can be like playing with fire, can I win this number of units before I get burnt.

    Absolutely. The Labby as written sucks, I would recommend it to anybody. Once you've lost a few bets, then you need to win within 2 bets, otherwise you continue haemorrhaging units. It's a nasty insidious progression.

    Somewhere on the Wizard of Odds web site, there are calculations for if you have this amount of BR what is the probability of success or failure. They refer to it as the cancellation system, it's worth a read.

    Hey guys and girls, it great that Baccarat folk are putting thought into MM, having played this game for very long time, it is my opinion that this is what the game is all about, I came to that conclusion the very first time I sat at a Bacc' table. The more info you have at your disposal, switching from different progression, changing chip levels, knowing where you are in the game, you'll be better players for it. There is sod all you can do in regards to bet selection, shoes churn out what they want.

    Take the casino game WAR, I've never lost the few times I've played i, using a Fibonacci progression, having to regress one time. Some Indian dude next to me was losing his wife standing behind him, they noticed I kept growing my chip stack. She cotton on real fast, she was smart, and said to her husband, "it's the bet amounts", I just looked and smiled.:p
     
    Joey Torres likes this.
  14. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    758
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    So you're betting anti-streak, against after 2. Personally I would wait for a streak of 4 and would be taking more than one bite at it. But hey, it's your thing and your money, good luck :)
     
    shattered dreams likes this.

  15. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2019
    Likes:
    19
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    I would probably get a higher win rate with waiting for a streak of 4, but then I would be waiting even more. I recently watched a shoe finish at The Palms that did not have over a streak of 2 of anything. It did excellent with my bet selection, in fact it would have been my best shoe ever. I have seen many shoes that do not have more than 3's quite regularly. I got the idea for betting against 2 bankers from the 5 column statistics thread. In that thread, you mention a template is best for bet selection. What exactly is that, if you do not mind me asking? Thanks!
     
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    758
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Simply means columnising the results, recording them top to bottom then left to right, using columns of 2's, 3's, 4's all they way up to ?? 9 was the most I used. You start stepping into the territory of 'bet selection's' that maybe only fail once in hundreds of shoes. Extremely difficult if not impossible to put into action at the tables due to the MM required.
     
    shattered dreams likes this.
  17. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2018
    Likes:
    55
    Location:
    Vegas
    JK,

    If you have the time can you tell me how you would play this recovery attempt? i settled on a 7 unit prepossession and once that is lost i will play a labby 1 1 1 1 at 2 unit bets giving me 8 units once i close out the labby, need advice on how you would play and adjust the labby once it starts losing

    the shoe had a high of plus 3 on hand 14 and finally on hand 33 it hits -4 so it lost the 7 Unit preprogression, this is where i started my labby

    here are the rest of the results beginning with hand 34 (thank you if you are able to find the time)

    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    W
    L
    W
    W
    W
    L
    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    W
    W
    W
    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    W
    W
    L
    W
    L
     
  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    758
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    That would be a massive exercise, I'd been down this road previously on my own forum for somebody else, and I still don't think he got it (didn't manage to grab a copy before forum was shut down). I've gone over my string method face to face with friends and it went over their heads.

    The Labby itself is pretty self explanatory, as you wish to recover only 1-1-1-1, it would have to be 1 string, I wouldn't do that.

    Personally, I would stay at the same level and write out 2 strings; (multiple strings is always safer than 1)

    1-1-1-1-1
    1-1-1-1-1

    First bet 1u, win, do nothing (let's be greedy), lose change right side 1 to a 2, next bet 2u, win cross out the 2, lose change 2 x 1's to 2's.

    Strings now look like this

    1-1-2-2-2
    1-1-1-1-1

    Next bet (your choice), 2u or 3u.. At this point, you won't bet 1u again.

    There are literally too many options, I would be typing all week.

    Suffice to say,

    If your continuing to get hammered and end up like this;

    3-3-3-3-3
    3-3-3-3-3

    And bet 6u and lose, don't increment figures greater than 3 or 4 into your string.

    3-3-3-3-3-6
    3-3-3-3-3

    Don't fancy betting 9 units? (you might lose again??) then pull out that figure 6, and play it separately.

    3-3-3-3-3
    3-3-3-3-3
    2-2-2 < focus on resolving this.

    Win a 2u bet, leave the 2-2-2 string alone, instead remove a 3 and write a 1 on the bottom line. Any win should be used to reduce to reduce the biggest figure in your strings, no matter where it is.

    Your string will now look like.

    3-3-3-3-3
    3-3-3-3-3
    1-2-2-2 < focus on resolving this.

    It's becoming a grind, but is keeping your bets low, you will have to step up at some stage, but let's minimise the risk for now.

    So you end up with something like this as a bad example

    4-4-4-4-5-6
    3-4-5-5-6-7
    3-3-3-3-4-5
    3-4-4-4-5-6 (what a mess, no doubt, you lost your head at some stage, been there mat8)

    You have 2 options and is dependant on your BR and this is what we want when it comes to MM, OPTIONS.

    The total of those strings = 91 units, it happens sometimes, been there many times, they are only low value units, still not pleasant :cool:

    Fuck it, call it 100.

    Option 1

    Increase you betting chip value x4 or x5

    Increase of bet size five fold, gives us 20 units to recoup, which will also return a profit.

    1-1-1-1-1
    1-1-1-1-1
    1-1-1-1-1
    1-1-1-1-1

    Easy, yes? Just have to get the BR together, I had to do this last night, not pleasant, got the job done.
    (as you reduce those strings, once you get down to a few units left, convert to lower value string, to protect the hard work that you have done)

    Putting out big bets? Consider hedging the Tie, doesn't matter if the Tie loses, write a 1 on your score card, get any lost Tie bets back later. I actually write down all Tie bet units win or lose (LOL).

    I generally bet £5 Tie if I have a minimum bet of £50, in the UK it pays 9-1. Few nights ago, £50 on Bank, £5 on Tie, 3 ties in a row, sweet.
    Pisses me off having £25 on a bet, nothing on Tie and the egalite comes in, had 4 Ties in a row last night, God Damn...



    Option 2

    No increase of chip bet value, simply redo those strings.

    2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2
    2-2-2-2-2-2-2
    2-2-2-2-2-2-2
    2-2-2-2-2-2-2

    2-2-2-2-2-2-2
    2-2-2-2-2-2-2
    2-2-2-2-2-2-2

    I've also gone down this road, again it is grind, expect to put in many hours, but IMO better than losing. As you start clawing back units, your BR should grow, and yo can attack them more aggressively. If I'm having to do this kind of recovery, which I have numerous times, I mainly focus on working 2 strings at a time, no more.

    The start value of those strings = 100. At the end of the shoe, total them up again, redo them to fit your comfort zone. So long as the figure is dropping, then great. I'll post some Labby defensive moves up, when I find them, I've got them somewhere.
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2019
    Terry Plumb and Joey Torres like this.
  19. R19

    R19 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2018
    Likes:
    53
    Location:
    USA
    Not finding any adjustments to the Fibonacci negative progression with no reset that are worth the give up in performance yet.
     
  20. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    758
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    What I did a long time ago, was take a whole bunch of worst-case performing shoes, and ran through the W vs L runs with my string option. Do the same with your delayed fibo.
     
    Terry Plumb likes this.

Share This Page