Baccarat Progressions

I used a divisor all day today... was the hard day just all day at the PC screen. My eyes are pain already, 10 shoes played (most of them complete by 57hands)
Started with a bankroll of 20u
Finished my day with bankroll 70u
Biggest loss per shoe -2u
Biggest win per shoe +11u
So far so good!
Super big thanks for you Eugene!

 

Yeah but you have at least 8 different options within the 100 spins which to track, not exactly the same as only tracking B or P. So lets equalise this out and only look at Black or Red. No streak of 11..

 

Yep, that's true. Still, I do have a chart just for Black / Red. You can't know when a long streak starts. But you can know when 4 to 7 streaks swarm just in the red / black. I know you have seen swarms of 4's. You see swarms, then you might win one or two extra beyond just blind random guessing. That family that took millions off of the casinos in Europe only had a 6 in 100 advantage. They only needed an extra winner here and there to beat the casinos.

 

I rarely random guess, most of the time when I do, I wish I hadn't. Yes I've seen streaky portions of a given shoe, doesn't mean I know when they are going to manifest or are an isolated event. It doesn't matter neither way, what's important is the bet size (non-significant feeler bet), if you are going to speculate, which in the main I tend to stay away from unless I'm bored.

 

"Contra D'Alembert"

A positive betting option.

The "Contra D'Alembert" operates differently depending on the number of units of the original bet.

Example;

If the first bet is 1u and you get WWL, the end result is a push (+1+2-3=0)
If the first bet is 2u and you get WWL, the end result is +1 (+2+3-4=+1)
If the first bet is 3u and you get WWL, the end result is +2 (+3+4-5=+2)

Obviously all other WL sequences behave differently dependant on the first bet size, if you do not fancy starting off betting 2 or 3 units, let's say you are at a $10 table, you could treat the unit value as $5, so even though your first bet is $10, it is in fact 2 x $5 units.

If you play $25 units, treat the first bet as 5u, then after WWL we end up with; (+5+6-7=+4)

You have to compare how various progressions stack up against each other against various combinations of W's and L's, WL, WWL, WWWL, WWWWL etc. A simple two step (1u > 2u) will fare better against a WWL run than a "Contra D'Alembert" started at 1 unit.

I've dabbled with positive progressions off and on over the years and Parlay's failures will screw your head more and quicker than losing hands 9-8 or 7-6 ever will. Which is why I always try and protect the initial win whenever I use them, generally betting the chops offer more opportunities for strings of wins, along with templates.

Other options would include, combining a limited positive Martingale and Contra D'Alembert (+1+2+4+4+4+5+6+7), or even a positive Fibonacci, starting at 1u or 2u.

If your thinking about positive progressions, there are two issues to resolve; firstly what are you going to do after many failed Parlay attempts? Quit or switch to a negative progression to recoup? Then revert back to betting positive (you are now playing Star), secondly; the bet selection you are going to use, which may be the biggest stumbling block.


A few years back I took a method to the casino for a live test run, I was down in the first two shoes and not feeling happy, on the third shoe, I recouped everything, and also bottled out of the positive progression and missed out taking more from the tray. I was just happy to get my money back and a small profit after the prior 30u~ish draw-down, this is what you are up against the mental anguish.

Plus handling something like;

#5=LLWLWLLWLWWLWLLWLWWLWL


Anybody contemplating using any Parlay method, should cover their ass, by considering protecting the initial win, either via, 1-1-2-3 or 1-1-2-4, or a failed Parlay not costing them the full unit prior won, 1-1.5 > ($10>$15 $25>$35).

Also have some sort of recoup plan mapped out in advance, if things start going South.

As for BBP, all I am saying is, it the most common three hand sequence based on the Zumma books.

 

Thanks for your update and keep it coming.

By the way, how many units is your biggest bet?
What bet selection are your using?
How do you compare the divisor with other MM available?

Brgds

 

It certainly wouldn't be hard to keep track of the Divisor in a B+M Casino.

All you really need to keep in mind are the two rules as mentioned above and then just adjust things as and when required.



I will be playing tomorrow and so will do a trip report when I get back.

 

You are starting with Divisor 6 and Target 6. After one loss, the Bet is increased to 2 units. In the spreadsheet developed by Lanky, it is Divisor 6 and Target 4. Bet is increased to 2 units after 5 consecutive losses. Lanky is more conservative. A compromise is, Divisor 6 and Target 5. Bet is increased to to 2 units after 3 consecutive losses.

When the divisor becomes 2, to stop steep escalation of Bets, Lanky suggests Safety Brake.

Add third rule:

When the divisor becomes 2, add Safety Brake. Add another 6 point divisor to another target of 4 or 6.
Like this:
2/14 +
6/4=
8/18: 3 to bet

Add fourth rule:

When your loss exceeds 25 units, start all over.

Question: Is there any bet selection recommended for this money management?

 

Some good ideas there Stephen!

One thing I like about the Divisor compared to some of the other MM plans out there is that it is configurable to suit however the player wants to use it.

Regarding the safety brake, you can bring it in any time that you think the bets are getting too steep for your liking.
So something like 10/60 and you could add for example 6+4 giving you 16/64 and so a bet now of 4 units instead of 6. Or even taking your Rule 4 into account and just restarting completely when you get down by so many units.

You could introduce a new safety brake whenever you encounter so many losses in a predetermined set of hands.

So something like....

0 wins out of 6.
1 win out of 8.
2 wins out of 10.
3 wins out of 12.
4 wins out of 14.
5 wins out of 16.
6 wins out of 18.
7 wins out of 20.
8 wins out of 22.
9 wins out of 24.
10 wins out of 26.

Ultimately, I think it's all just about thinking about what you are doing as you go along and not using anything set in stone come what may.

Regarding bet selection, Lanky was a fan of what he called Dispersion Surfing. I think it involved virtual losses etc.. It was something he learned from VLS (Victor) who was the Admin from the old VLS forum. I can't say I am a fan of any of that stuff myself but then I have never did any long term testing of it. Also you have to consider that Lanky and Vic were Roulette players. Using it on Baccarat may work better with different strategies. If you look at the shoes from JK's online experiences, they are very streaky. Go to a B+M Casino and you may get more choppy shoes. The answer really should be to play with whatever you are comfortable with and feel you have a really deep understanding off. At least that way, you can approach the game with a degree of confidence.

 

No disputing that.

Sounds along the same lines as my string method.

 

Hi, biggest was 5 units. But today I reached 8 units, as I switched on to more aggressive mode.
I am using random bets, just random, without any thinking.
No, I am not comparing divisor as I never used any MM

 

JunketKing......


Thank you very much for writting this up i rarely come on here anymore but posts like this gem are why I even check boards.

Lots of stuff to disect and study from your post, but I know it will be worthwile .

I am looking for something to keep my bets from escalating, and this on a quick read seems it has some promise.

I play junkets too and like the 1.3 backpay commisiion.

I play commisiin bacarat as super six will kill me on progressions

heres the 4 shoes i played last night, you get a maximu of 20 free hands theoughout the shoe i normally start play between hand 8-12, but sometimes it could be as early as hand 6 amd as late as hand 15... i bet every hand, and will not start a new sequence after hand 60, but will complete the sequeence or go to the next shoe, this four shoes i was able to finisj by hand 72

minimum here is $20 and max $2000, i normally play alone so can get done with shoe in 30-45mins

the shoes show my LW record based on my bet selection highest bet was 20 unit, you see the bet amount under the LW row, and running unit balance below that.

1st shoe plus13
2nd shoe plus13
3rd plus 8
4th plus 13

i ended up with approx $800 after comision, but received about $85 in junket commision//// i won a total of 47 units, which should be $940 minus commiion/tax on bank

i will Rerun my win loss from last night using your ideas.. again thank you

and yeah im too lazy to rewrite the WL row, thus why I upload, but I know u will be able to figure this out as you seem to be a very deep thinking bac player......

 

A quick Trip Report where I kept my session short due to the bad weather here in the UK at the moment.

Here was the first two thirds of the Shoe that I played. (41 hands including three Ties)

BB
PP
BB
PP
B
PPPPP
B
PPPP
B
PPPP
B
PP
B
P
BBB
P
BBB
P
B

My Win /Loss registry including the Divisor bets.

L 1
W 2
W 1
W 1
W 1
L 1
L 2
L 2
W 2
W 2
L 2
W 2
L 2
W 3
W 1
L 1
W 1
W 1
W 1
L 1
W 2
L 1
W 2
W 1
L 2
L 2
L 2
W 2
W 2
W 1

I was happy with the 10 unit win. It wasn't too difficult a shoe and the GM1 would have returned +12 but the results landed in a way which favoured G3M1 and flat betting would have returned 6 units. Regarding the Divisor, I don't suppose it got much of a workout. I will go again towards the end of the week if the weather improves.

Time to batten down the hatches now and look forward to the thunderstorms.

 

Hello guys, after Eugene posting of Divisor my results so far:
Played 15 shoes
WIN 297
LOSS 275
PROFIT 90 units
Biggest bet 8units
My target....well to reach at least 4000GBP (started with 20GBP)

 

one more shoe is done.

 

Nice going so far JustBeRich,

It just goes to show that a lot of the time you don't need a huge bankroll as long as you are disciplined and have a plan.

 

HEY HEY, WHERE do you play in UK? I used to visit London, Manchester, and Liverpool casinos before when I was playing roulette. I tried baccarat in London, 1 win 1 loss. A little bit more hard to concentrate when playing in land-based casinos.

 

Mostly in Birmingham. They have 3 Genting (The main one is the International Resorts but I prefer the one in Chinatown) 2 Grosvenor and a few smaller chains like the Rainbow and the Broadway. Sometimes I will go down to London for a few days and play at either the Empire, Hippodrome or Sportsman. I was a roulette player myself but gave that up. Roulette IMO is more of a game for gamblers who like the action. Baccarat is a bit more suited to my personality. I only wish I wasn't as pig headed to find some kind of Roulette HG for a long number of years and got into Baccarat sooner. Still, better late than never as they say. I sound like one of those folk who has given up smoking and now goes around telling everyone it's bad for you! But seriously, I think Baccarat offers a lot better opportunity for the EC's.

 

Well, my story with gambling starts something like 2008. I was young and crazy. I went with one of my friend in Cambodia from Thailand by car and my friend invited to play in the casino (they all are on the borders as in Thailand is illegal to play). You can not imagine, the first game I ever played was a Baccarat. I remember that my friend tried to teach me, but we just double our bankroll and left. Later I started at roulette until 2 years ago when I check my lifetime minus (i have the discipline to register each game lose/win) I started to analyze card game. One year for BlackJack, I understand that it is a tricky game, and just this year, after 10 years I started with baccarat. Results surprised me! Now left to find a solution to not lose bankroll again and just grow slowly. I wish that I continue that from 2008....but I am happy that I never touch roulette again, maybe for fun just sometimes.
In the UK, most of the time I used to play roulette at Ritz and Palms casino. Playboy casino allowed me to enter 3 times for free, later need to pay a yearly fee, which I do not want as I am not often in London.

 

It's funny you mention Cambodia. I have a friend who likes to travel to that part of the world and was living in Kampot just recently. He says that there is a lot of Casino development going on at the moment in Sihanoukville. He was telling me about the visa runs a lot of people have to do if they want to stay.