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Baccarat Small martingale

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by brokercny, Mar 23, 2019.

  1. brokercny

    brokercny Member

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    hey Jae, thanks for feedback. mentor charged me back in 2010, thats how we met. he has taught me alot. but you are right about testing and than going live. i just got back from my local casino and had my ass handed to me. im not sure if its the RNG machines they have because those machines are streakier and choppier than live dealers. in my practice test, when i had an awful shoe, the next few shoes make it up. even if i bust on a 5 step marty, i usually come out slightly ahead or even in a shoe. i busted out 3 times in about an hour of play with the RNG machine. im starting to believe what others have said about RNG is garbage compared to live dealers. the randomness is different in both cases. just curious, if your unit is 5K, that means you bring a bankroll of 60K when you go play? thats high roller in my book!
     
  2. R19

    R19 Active Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    brokercny, consult with Junket King. He apparently has some magic Harry Potterbruh hat that will send him signals on when to turn on and turn off various parts of his approach to play. He can still wear such a magic Harry Potterbruh hat in the casino and stay below radar as to not declare open war on the casino, engage in any battles with the casino, or partake in any other kinetic action that would be otherwise classified as combat with the casino. These signals tend to be in the 50% of the time range or can vary depending on tweaks and set up.
     
  3. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Interesting approach. Is this the same trigger, Jae?
     
  4. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    A 2 step Marty is not a reliable one. On a good day, you will reach your win stop but on a bad day, you dig yourself in and never recover UNLESS one loss and you are done for the day, I found that a 5 step Marty is the best. 4 step Marty comes in 2nd. 3 step and 6 step are equally bad. Although they all carry the same odds but a loss with a 5 step is easiest to manage because the win days are a plenty and continuous. Always remember when using 5 step, it has to be a hit and run method with a lot of charting. NO FIX TRIGGER OR BET SELECTION PERIOD !!!
     
  5. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    If you have the balls to be using a 5 step martingale, then I suggest either pick a random pattern of 5 hands and play it over and over in blocks of 5 bets. Or

    Record a shoe using columns of 5, and just alternate betting B (five times, stopping after any singe win), then P.

    Only 20% of any streak of 5, or streak greater than 5 some of the time may be an issue. For any streak of 5, 80% of the time you will snare a win somewhere within 5 bets.

    Just so we are clear.


    Record results like this.

    1-6
    2-7
    3-8
    4-9
    5-10

    You decide if you are going to start betting B or P, but you rotate throughout the entire shoe, once you snare a win within a column, you don't bet the rest of the column. Don't worry about streaks of 5, because only if the land at position 1 will you lose a 32u bet, if a streak of 5 starts anywhere else, you will be fine, which is why I said you lose against only 20% of 5 streaks, 80% of the time you can handle them.

    Playing with a 5 step Marty is not for the faint hearted, fuck that and good luck.
     
  6. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    What? A 31 units loss is not for the faint ❤️? So you shouldn't bring 31 units of bankroll for any types of money management? Remember you need to quit after just one loss of 31 units. That is the key. Charting and Hit& Run is utmost importance. Not a money printing' method that you suggest. I know the odds are the same but we have to agree to disagree on this one. I have tried both and my way is more like winning in the dark. Yours is purely going to battle with the house and guess what, the House wins.
     
  7. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I take hundreds of units to a casino, I was referring the the use of a Martingale, it is nervy as anything using one. Unnecessary mental pressure, I was playing with a Fibonacci few nights, it was awful, betting 8 units knowing that should I lose that bet, the next is 13U, and maybe 21u afterwards, it's horrible, there are smarter ways to play. As soon as I switched to my normal MM method the pressure was off, nice and relaxed, no sweat regarding losing a few bets, grind them back, easily and safely.

    Quitting for the day, makes no difference, whatsoever. It's like putting a video on pause, the ending is just the same once you start play. The Marty is too much risk for little reward, risking 63 units to win 1, it's crazy. Yet I also appreciate it is also the Rolls Royce of progressions, one win needed, no 33% win rate or double win required like most common progressions. It is for the young, gung-ho and foolish, been there done, sent the postcard.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.

  8. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    I once think like you after I failed at Marty. After applying the Math side of things, every progression OR bet amount would come down to 50/50 with House Edge. The difference is probability and payout ratio. Then I concentrate on approach and there's the difference maker. Stop , take a break and come back to play is like stopping the losing trend.
    I urged you to do one thing. Get hold of 8 deck of cards. Shuffle them and deal out the hands accordingly. Play ONLY when you feel its to your liking. Win 8 units a day. 4 days, you would have won 32 units. If you lose, you might NOT lose at the 1st unit. lets take the average say the 5th unit, you would have saved 4 units of win.Here's an example.

    Day 1 win 8 units
    Day 2 win 8 units
    Day 3 win 8 units
    Day 4 win 8 units
    Day 5 lose 27 units. ( not 31 because you lose on the 5th unit. Already won 4 units before loss )

    My record for 14 years is 5.5 winning days to 1 losing day.

    Its breaks down to winning 25% of bankroll every day AND keeping only 25% of the winnings. The other 75% of winnings will be gone as future losses.
    My longest streak of winning days is 52 in a row and my longest losing streak is 2 times in 5 series.

    I am NOT afraid to give away my approach because I know there are a lot of people who are NOT interested in playing that few hands and winning only 25% of Bankroll NOT TO MENTION only able to keep 25% of winnings.

    Do the experiment that I wrote above. Don't jump to conclusions. You will be surprised.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  9. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    5 step marty wins 96.875% (50%+25%+12.5%+6.25%+3.125%) in a 50:50 situation, so a bit better than you were thinking. You would lose the other 3.125%, for a total of 100%. In the long run this would be break even but casino games are not 50:50. Baccarat is more like 49.4:50.6 in favor of the house.
     
    DatsKamfa likes this.
  10. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    You have to rethink about your prejudice against a 5 step Marty. On a good day you win with 5-Marty. Above average day, you win. Average day, you win. Below average day, you win. Bad day as long as not 5 in a row, you win. YOU ONLY LOSE ON A VERY BAD DAY!!! You can concentrate on charting and bet selection because your bet progression is set.

    Remember we are talking about long term gambling here. Any method can win in the short run. I am just curious if your win rate is only 45% for one particular day, how would you overcome the loss and become a winner? Again 5 step Marty CANNOT BE ABUSED. Come out with the right approach and don't be greedy UNLESS YOU GO TO A CASINO TO GAMBLE.
     
  11. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    All progressions 50-50!!! yes, exactly, or do you mean all progressions that you are aware of?

    So you analyse and identify the problem which they all have, that is they perform poorly when losing many decisions in a row, you are doomed, and that does happen at the Baccarat tables? Once you identify the problem with these progressions designed in the 15th century such as the Labochere, Fibonacci, and much later the Martingale, then you can address the flaw which they all have, that being none of them can handle variance without putting the player under tremendous pressure, ditto for sure-win, so then you design your own.

    I do actually play professionally. My goal per session is in the region of 60 ~ 100 units, which is usually 100% of my buyin, if I have to re-buyin, then so be it.

    This week, I have turned an initial 120 base units into 620 base, work your maths on that increase. My goal is to average 100 units per day with absolute minimum risk, playing as many shoes as necessary, averaging 12~15 per night via speed baccarat, as I posted over a decade ago, "you pay the price of time, rather than risk your bankroll".

    How I play is safe, my risk aversive, I am prepared to play all night and all day if I have to. I used to be a heavy Fibonacci player, betting up to 144 units, the stress alone, never mind winning or losing the bet will destine you to an early grave alone. Never mind the fact that your odds are no different at 144 units on the felt compared to the initial 1 unit chip you bet many hands ago.

    As for the maths and probability quoted yes, I'm aware of all of that, as for losing 5 bets in a row, happens all the time, happened to me earlier several time in my last session, yet still made a profit of 120 units. As for my progression, I've shown friends, none have taken to (because they don't understand it), they need something set in stone when MM should never be like that. . I've posted full details on my defunct private Baccarat site, that information was lost when the hosting company closed my board without doing a back-up. As a friend once said to me, I can show you this and that, but nobody will ever be able to play like me, because they are not me, we all think differently, we react differently.

    Yes, I do use a negative progression, a propriety creation, the problem many fail to grasp in regards to this game, is that some long deceased mathematician or broke gamble who sold a system shouldn't be telling anybody what to do with their money. All this crap about if you lose x number of bets, then you must wager xx amount, if you win or lose then this is your next move. You need upmost flexibility when it comes to "how much do I bet next", not be following some staking plan because that is what is written.

    After spending years of trials and errors trying and reading about all the progressions you will find on the web, I own literally all of them. Only when you identify the problem, can you hope to fix the issue. I really do not wish to blow my trumpet, but I've been doing for this for well over 15 years, not all have been successful, I learnt the hard way. Not sure if yo know who I am, but I was very prevalent on Gamblerglen as well as having two invitation only boards, excuse my ego, as it is inflated at the mo, having spanked a casino all week with little pressure.

    I have a friend who made $9000 over many weeks using a 4 step Martingale, lost it all in one shoe. I've used it, I even designed a recoverable mechanism for a failed 4 step Marty, if my memory serves me right, I have used a 5 step marty, bloody ridiculous. I have posted elsewhere a strategy which is similar to what you suggestion, how to turn $80 into thousands, or something like that, I can post it here if anybody is interested, I tried it a few times, it never worked for me.

    I suggest you identify your audience before before you start dishing advice to what I should be trying. I came here to read the latest shit and posters are telling a professional player what he should do and silly stuff about taking a break? Why take a break if your losing, you won't recoup on the balcony and NO before you think or say it. I might be angry, frustrated and curse about losing, but I never let those aspects effect how I play nor the amount I bet. I carry no risk of going all in or on tilt when it comes to my game plan. Every outcome is random, while your having a smoke or giving yourself a handjob to release the mental strain who knows if you have avoided more losses or missed the reverse of the bell curve you just endured.

    Ultimately the battle is with the casinos, not each other, I detest them, along with their fake smiles and bullshit. . They are the common enemy, but let's not get off on the wrong foot by suggestion what I should be do. I already know what I'm doing and I'm doing it successfully.

    Excuse the rant, I'm frazzled after a long session, I usually hit the boards to unwind before catching up with some ZZZzzzz and my last session lasted for over 10 hours, I got what I wanted and them some.

    Have a nice day..
     
  12. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Everyone has different goals which determine how one will play. Time constraints and disposition have to be considered. I don't like any fixed betting plan. I never feel required to follow a betting plan and I control my bet sizes through a fluid money management based on the conditions at hand. I play both neg and pos progression. I keep my bets tight and grind. I rarely play more than 3 shoes and often leave while ahead just because it feels better to leave while ahead! I know my comfort zone.

    Few weeks ago I walked in, played 12 hands and quit for the day! Won a couple of bets, increased twice and kept going - won like 10 hands in a row. Maybe I would have won another 10 hands IAR, who knows? Doesn't matter, the game never ends. Neither does the study and attempt to improve!

    A few years back I was winning pretty good at one table and these ladies were motioning me to bet more. One spoke English and I asked how do you say "turtle" in Mandarin. "gui lei" (I looked it up later)
    They all had a laugh.​
     
  13. Roubacc

    Roubacc Member

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    Interesting post thanks for that.
    Do you mind if I ask
    1. How many units do you make per shoe?
    2. Stated in units, what is your highest bet?
    3. Stated in units, what is your stop loss per shoe?

    Thanks
     
  14. jbs

    jbs Active Member

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    He, nor any of you, make ANYTHING per shoe. You're ALL losing gamblers!
     

  15. Roubacc

    Roubacc Member

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    When your bank account looks like my phone number, I'll let you speak. Until then, you're dismissed!
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2019
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Must try and remember that one


    Sorry Roubacc I don't work operate like that. I don't operate on a per shoe basis. As the game is totally random, nobody knows, some shoes you lose, some break even, some are used to grind back a prior losing shoe. I lost a few shoes last night, doesn't matter, get it back the next shoe or the current shoe, I perform lots of mini-recovery modes.

    Therefore I have no idea how much I make per shoe, I'm not interested in how much I make on an individual shoe basis. I strictly work on a per session basis. When I'm at a casino, the Chinese ladies will ask, "you winning", in all honesty I only have a vague idea if I'm up or down, I'm not paying attention to my chip stack, rather I'm focusing 99% in dealing with money management aspects, ensuring I keep bets low, your odds don't change if you bet 2u or you bet 20u and reaching the goal I set myself before I entered the joint. Irrelevant if it takes 5 or shoes 15 shoes.

    Highest bet? All depends on how much bankroll I have at my disposal. If I'm playing say with 120 units, I'll usually won't bet more that 5 or 6 units max. Having over 600 units at my disposal, I'll take if further, occasionally, with the comfort of knowing I've got lots of backup. So last night for example, my maximum bet was 20u. Which then had me in questioning myself, "am I still in control". I won the bet, but dropped about 40 units on that shoe. I was betting 16u, 18u, which from experience, I knew I was slowly stepping outside what I normally bet.

    If I get hit really bad and am suffering a uncomfortable drawdown, I might restart my play at a five 5 fold increase in bet size.
    I will admit to having a slight mental block when it comes betting, so I don't maximize potential profit. I've ben at a table and people ask me, why i'm betting so small, no matter how good you think you are nobody knows, it's a 50-50 game, always will be, nothing is due.

    It doesn't matter if I have 100 units or 1000 units at my disposal, my base unit is always the same, mentally it is a different game, knowing you have so much in reserve, yet loathe to use it.

    I guess it comes down to mentality. So if somebody said they want to turn £2000 into £3000 is it possible. I would say yes, it's doable, but it would be over the a course of a week. not a single session. They still have their £1000 profit, but it is going to take longer. To turn £2000 into £3k in a single session might be doable with luck, but carries too much risk. Small profits accumulate, nobody ever went broke making small amounts.


    Stop loss per shoe? I'm not physic, I do run into shoes from Hell, I don't stop, I back-off and go into recovery mode, I simply resign myself to playing more shoes thereafter. Few nights ago, I was approx 80 units in profit and dropped all the way back to zero units in profit, shit happens, yes it was sickening, but I just went a little more aggressive with my bet size, it was twitchy, but closed the session over 100u up. It's a good point you make and debating such aspects only helps to re-enforce discipline. Currently my goal is to take the initial start point of 140 units to 800 units, I'm not sure how the online casino will react to me making 100 units per night, so I'll give them a break once I hit that goal.

    Johno-egalite
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  17. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Can not be abused??? Is that because it is like playing with wet dynamite.

    I will create a new thread on way to turn $75 into $10,000 for 28 hours of effort. Just for the Martingale fans
     
  18. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    This a exactly what I meant. Martingle only work in the long run with calculated approach. I am by no means educating other people . The thread is call small Martingle and I am sharing my experience and happen to swear by it AND seeing consistent long term result. And your method........?
    The type of play totally not for the faint of heart. Long grinding hours. Very unhealthy both health wise and Baccarat wise.
     
  19. brokercny

    brokercny Member

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    update: now we pretty much abandoned the 5 step marty for now. sorry guys. it wasnt working out on a consistent basis. we are still using the bet selection process, but mixed with the 1 up strategy. it doesnt win all the time, but so far it wins majority of the shoes. what we learn is that every shoe has the capability of giving us 10-15 units and not be greedy. there are shoes from hell where you might lose right from the start and never get better. my mentor hasnt put in the idea of a stop loss, but i think im leaning towards a 10-15 unit stop loss as well. so if i win the first shoe and lose the next, its an even wash and ill just start over at that point. ill keep you guys updated as this testing stage progresses.
     
  20. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I've been there.

    BPPB or PBBP so the 4th bet is not subject to tax.

    Then got a bit smarter, bet selection processes that will win against every conceivable pattern except 20% of any given streak of three. Then you get hit by 8 losses in row, 4 losses in a row far to common. So let's make even more unlikely to get hit, by using 4 streaks as your nemesis pattern as they are suppose to occur 50% less than three streaks, but not any occurrence of a 4 streak, only 16% of them, still won't hold up.

    Going further, I'll make my nemesis 14% of a streak of 5, requiring 6 bets in a series of bets. without going into the details, a streak of 5 is suppose to occur 3.1% of the time, and you only have to be concerned with 14% of them, 86% of the time, you snare a win within a series of bets. Sounds too good to be true right? Nope, I watched even that lose several times earlier, I have used it in the past, doesn't hold up, as for the frequency of it not holding up, I'm not sure, I didn't collate those stats, I just came to conclusion, I am risking too many bets to win a single one.

    There is a a hellva of a lot more to consider, than bet selection and MM, trust me on that. Few years ago, I made a significant amount of money playing Baccarat, 34 straight winning sessions and a 4000% profit. The nemesis pattern was 14% of any series of 7 chops. Sometimes I would get hit, but it didn't matter too much because the dual MM approach I designed took care of it. However I was never able to replicate that at any other casino, nor at the original casino once they caught up with certain procedures which were being used everywhere else. I can't go into detail, as this is an open forum, no doubt there a few shills on this site and the last thing I want to do is confirm what some of them already know.

    "And my method"? I've been playing and studying this game for well on 15 years, explored it all, seen it all, random vs random through to pattern capturing. I can unequivocally state that your staking plan is the most important aspect, bet selection is just a methodology, some I consider weak such as DBL, some are more robust in terms of less frequent.

    Currently I am using a Maths based approach (waiting on confirmation of test results regarding stats, too complicated to script, has to be stimulated). Makes sense mathematically, one of math geeks at WoV wasn't convinced, but had to accept that maths of it.
    I've been using it for over 12 months, sure you can get abnormal shoes from hell, however vast majority conform. Might sound strange for a game of non-correlated outcomes, the maths can't be denied, however it is entirely dependant on the staking plan. So I guess now your curious as to what it is and there is no PM option here.....??
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2019

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